Oklahoma Weather Discussion - January/February 2012

[Roadhawg]

You need a 200 pt font size to make it work.

I was going to use that later just before the national disaster of getting an inch of snow lol

[Easy180]

Anyone know what the ground temps are? Sure they have dipped over the past few days

[OkieHornet]

Anyone know what the ground temps are? Sure they have dipped over the past few days

http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/wea...il_temperature

[Easy180]

Thanks Hornet...Figured they would be down there and not much help

[Tydude]

we could get up to 4 inches of snow according to rick mitchell

[OKCisOK4me]

Rm = bs

[venture]

we could get up to 4 inches of snow according to rick mitchell

Heh. That's funny. If you are in OKC I wouldn't hold my breath.

Anyway. Looks like we could see a few pockets near 3 inches over far western and Northern OK. Also in some areas of Eastern OK. NAM has pulled significantly back on snow accumulations for Central OK. Not that they were really that high to begin with. NAM is siding more on the side of sleet it seems. Freezing rain shouldn't be a major issue according to it. GFS stays almost all snow through noon tomorrow and then moves to light rain or drizzle. GFS keeps precip amounts pretty low as well...generally less than a quarter inch. Could be a pocket of up to a 0.3" from say Guthrie to Bartlesville...so could see up to 3 inches there.

Now to see if schools cancel or just delay. Then again, I can't recall them really delaying schools here that often. Pretty much it is always open or closed, no in between. Back north would always have 1 to 2 hours delays depending on what is going on...fog, snow, cold, etc.

[Roadhawg]

Growing up in Nebraska, and in the country, it would have to be blizzard conditions before they closed school.

[Achilleslastand]

When does this look to be hitting the metro?

[venture]

When does this look to be hitting the metro?

Could be some light snow now on the North side of the Metro area in Logan and Kingfisher counties. Main thrust of moisture is still a few hours out.

[OKCisOK4me]

Growing up in Nebraska, and in the country, it would have to be blizzard conditions before they closed school.

Yeah, I went to high school in north central Missouri and we had a road basketball game cancelled bc the temp was -15. Nothing much else other than a blizzard would keep us from school or its activities, lol.

[venture]

Looks like everything east of US 81 is verga right now. Starting to get some light amounts precip out west.

[adaniel]

\
Now to see if schools cancel or just delay. Then again, I can't recall them really delaying schools here that often. Pretty much it is always open or closed, no in between. Back north would always have 1 to 2 hours delays depending on what is going on...fog, snow, cold, etc.

In defense of the school systems around here, its my understanding per state law there's very little leeway in the decision to open or close schools. The state requires schools be in session a minimum number of hours or else it doesn't consider it an official day. So depending on how late schools need to be delayed, it would just count as a missed day, and teachers would have to make it up anyway.

If roads are even a bit rough for the morning commute, expect the majority of schools to be closed tomorrow. And as a single childless person, I will probably be expected to cover for all of the parents that had to stay home with their kids

[bandnerd]

You have to go through lunch, I think, for it to count as a "day" at school.

[sacolton]

I seem to recall a lot of schools closed on a "chilly" day (temps were in the 20s) with no snow or ice, just windy ... because children did not have coats. Seriously.

[bluedogok]

Austin shuts down at the mere thought of freezing precip in any form. Drivers there have trouble in rain.

[venture]

Back edge of the main precip area is getting close to US 281 just west of the metro area. Could snow fall rates increase a bit or change to sleet right before it ends. Some more precip could develop behind this, but looks pretty isolated right now.

[venture]

Winds will be increasing 20-30 mph behind the system. Could see some blowing and drifting on east-west roads. Shouldn't be a big deal. Might have some local reduced visibility and previously cleared roads (LOL...who am I kidding, I mean errr...) could be covered again.

[venture]

[Roadhawg]

I seem to recall a lot of schools closed on a "chilly" day (temps were in the 20s) with no snow or ice, just windy ... because children did not have coats. Seriously.

When I lived in the south I saw several days like that and just laughed. My dad would be I don't care how cold it is you're going to school *lol* Growing up the grade and junior high had heat but no a/c.

[bluedogok]

Many people in Austin do not have anything that would be regarded as a "heavy coat". In fact most of mine that I have are from when I lived in OKC, I can probably count the number of times that I wore it in Austin on one hand.

[venture]

Low risk tonight for some large hail with storms that form. So could see one or two go severe tonight.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2012

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FOUR CORNERS TODAY AND SRN PLAINS TONIGHT...
ONE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN WA WILL DIG SSEWD TOWARD NRN
CA/NW NV...AS ANOTHER PRONOUNCED TROUGH OVER SRN UT/AZ PROGRESSES
EWD TO NM EARLY TONIGHT AND THE TX PANHANDLE/W TX BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND S OF
THE FOUR CORNERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES.
FARTHER E...A SEPARATE RISK OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT ACROSS TX/OK/KS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NWD ON A 30-40
KT SLY/SSWLY LLJ. THIS MOISTENING WILL OCCUR BENEATH A PLUME OF
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1250 J/KG. THE LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY...ALONG WITH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES AOB -20 C...WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM 06-12Z. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SPECIFIC TIMING/LOCATION OF ELEVATED
STORMS OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH THE STEEP
LAPSE RATE PLUME...THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW HAIL PROBABILITIES IN
THIS OUTLOOK.

..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 02/14/2012

[ou48A]

Many people in Austin do not have anything that would be regarded as a "heavy coat". In fact most of mine that I have are from when I lived in OKC, I can probably count the number of times that I wore it in Austin on one hand.

In the last 20 years have only worn my very heaviest coat twice (OU football games) in Norman and sweated in it both times.
I have been out in -60 wind chills for extended periods (2hr) in this coat and been reasonably comfortable.
But the coat is built for artic like conditions as is some of my other clothing.

[Roadhawg]

In the last 20 years have only worn my very heaviest coat twice (OU football games) in Norman and sweated in it both times.
I have been out in -60 wind chills for extended periods (2hr) in this coat and been reasonably comfortable.
But the coat is built for artic like conditions as is some of my other clothing.

My cold weather coats have yet to make it out of the closet except for 1 time when we had the blizzard. I wore it when driving around in the jeep pulling people out. Still had to keep the jeep temp pretty cool or else I would have sweated myself to death lol

[ouamber]

Has anyone looked at the GFS or Euro lately??? All models are showing a MAJOR change starting around the 26th of Feb-March 4th. (give or take a few days) An arctic intrustion seems to be wanting to head due south into the plain states. At the same time, several storm systems (one big one) could bring Oklahoma our first major winter storm of the year. Could be ice, sleet, or snow..or all the above. Just wondering what some of the mets are saying.