2012 Tropical Weather Discussion

[venture]

The Atlantic Tropical Season officially starts June 1st and runs through November. We'll be using this thread to discuss the activity that is to come in the Atlantic basin. Should any system start moving its way towards a specific inland region, we'll likely move that discussion to the monthly severe weather thread. This thread is meant as a resource and will be updated when needed. Do not use the thread for emergency planning for the protection of life and property.

Majority of the information provided here from the NHC: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/



Atlantic Visible Satellite


Atlantic Infrared Satellite - Colored


Long Range Forecast Models
COD Forecast Model Page
Florida State Experimental Cyclone Forecast Page
NOGAPS

[venture]

Yes...this is about 5 months too early for this thread. However...

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
645 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS...AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
LOW IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND A
SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING AND HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY...AND IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN A
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TURNING
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAOFFNT3 AND WMO HEADER FZNT24
KNHC...AND ALSO IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[ljbab728]

I assume I'm fairly in my trip to Cancun for this week then?

[venture]

Subtropical Storm BERYL

Storm Archive

...SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHEWESTERN ATLANTIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...[hr][/hr] 11:00 PM EDT Fri May 25 Location: 32.5°N 74.8°W Max sustained: 45 mph Moving: N at 9 mph Min pressure: 1001 mb Public Advisory #1 1100 PM EDT Aviso Publico none issued in last 12 hrs Forecast/ Advisory #1 0300 UTC Forecast Discussion #1 1100 PM EDT Wind Speed Probabilities #1 0300 UTC NWS Local Statements US Watch/ Warning 1100 PM EDT Hurricane Wind Speed Probability 50-knot Wind Speed Probability Trop Storm Wind Speed Probability Maximum Wind Speed Probability Interactive Map Warnings/Cone Static Images Warnings and Surface Wind Mariner's 1-2-3 Rule Wind

[venture]

Forgot to post information about Alberto which was off the US East coast last week (or the week before). Tropics are alive and kicking before the June 1st official start date of the season. NHC forecast shows a near normal year. We'll see.

Names for this year...
Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, and William.

[ou48A]

When keeping an eye on the tropics this is one of several sites I like.

http://spaghettimodels.com/