Oklahoma Weather Discussion - January/February 2012

[PennyQuilts]

Thanks, Venture.

[venture]

New Day 2 Outlook (Friday) seems to be pumping up tornado chances a bit.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST THU FEB 02 2012

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN OK
AND NRN TX INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AR/FAR NWRN LA...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE CLOSED LOW FORMING DURING DAY 1 ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S.
ROCKIES INTO THE WRN PART OF THE PLAINS STATES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
CUTOFF FROM THE NRN STREAM BY THE START OF DAY 2. HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS WRN TO CENTRAL CANADA WILL SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION OF AN OMEGA
BLOCK WEST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
STRONG SPEED MAX MOVING INTO THE BASE OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW
BY 12Z FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO EMERGE ENEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND OK/N TX THIS FORECAST PERIOD...RESULTING IN AN E-W ELONGATION OF
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW.

AT THE SURFACE...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
/INITIALLY LOCATED OVER WRN TX 12Z FRIDAY BETWEEN LBB/MAF/ WILL
TRACK NEWD INTO NWRN TX/SWRN OK BY 04/00Z AND REACH SWRN MO/NWRN AR
BY 12Z SATURDAY. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
MOISTURE NWD FROM DAY 1 INTO DAY 2...WITH A WARM FRONT BECOMING
REPOSITIONED FROM NRN OK EWD ALONG THE AR/MO BORDER TO THE KY/TN
BORDER BY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SSWWD FROM THE LOW WILL PROGRESS E/SEWD FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF OK INTO CENTRAL TX.

...SRN PLAINS TO AR/NWRN LA...
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO NWRN TX/SWRN OK AREA BY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THESE AREAS...THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED A
LITTLE WWD. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE SLIGHT RISK HAS REMAINED
UNCHANGED WITH THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE.

PER THE DAY 1 DISCUSSION...TSTMS /SOME SEVERE/ SHOULD BE ONGOING
INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL OK AND PARTS OF SRN KS AT 12Z FRIDAY. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD ADVANCE EWD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
ADDITIONAL DETAILS IN THE FORECAST SUBSECTION BELOW FOR MO/NRN AR TO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. MEANWHILE...MODELS SUGGEST THE
STRONGEST DPVA AND SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN N OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES AND WARM SECTOR DURING DAY 2. HOWEVER...DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS.
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH DAY 1 CONVECTION MAY TEND TO LIMIT
SURFACE HEATING AND THE DEVELOPMENT FOR STRONGER INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...ASCENT ON THE SRN EXTENT OF THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM
TROUGH/SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER
NRN/WRN OK INTO NWRN TX...WITH ACTIVITY ADVANCING EWD FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT MIXED STORM MODES WITH ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
POSSIBLE.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0091
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CST THU FEB 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN PORTIONS OF WRN TX THROUGH TX PANHANDLE AND WRN
OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 022144Z - 022345Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER SWD OVER PORTIONS OF
THE TX PANHANDLE BY 00-01Z AND EVENTUALLY INTO WRN OK THIS EVENING.
INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...A WINDOW WILL EXIST DURING THE EARLY EVENING FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN TX AND SWRN OK. AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW BY 23-00Z.

WV AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SHOW AN UPPER JET STREAK FROM SRN AZ
THROUGH SRN AND ERN NM WITHIN BASE OF TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL
AND SRN ROCKIES. MID-UPPER ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS
FEATURE AND WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IS PROMOTING
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NERN MN INTO THE TX AND OK
PANHANDLES. THIS AREA REMAINS WELL NORTH OF GREATER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS W-CNTRL AND WRN TX...AND AS A RESULT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

LLJ IS STRENGTHENING OVER WRN TX WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT REGION AND IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MOISTURE ADVECTION AND NWD DESTABILIZATION. STORMS
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY THIS EVENING FROM PORTIONS
OF THE TX PANHANDLE...NWRN TX AND WRN OK AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES NWD WITH TIME. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH
LARGE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS...BUT SOME OF
THE ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO LINE/BOWING SEGMENTS. A WINDOW MAY
EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS STORMS DEVELOP ON NRN FRINGE OF
GREATER MOISTURE RETURN AND BEFORE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

[sacolton]

Stay inside! Stay away from windows and doors! This looks deadly, folks!

[Easy180]

Hook hail!

[PennyQuilts]

Any changes by now?

[venture]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 23
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
740 PM CST THU FEB 2 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 740 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CST.

WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF CHILDRESS TEXAS TO 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF GAGE
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA
REGIME ATTENDANT TO 40-50+ KT LLJ. WHILE THE AMBIENT AIR MASS IS
NOT OVERLY MOIST...THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY SEVERE HAIL.

THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO MAY INCREASE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF NWRN TX AND SWRN OK WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY MOISTEN
SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT STORMS ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS
SUCH...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
UPGRADE TO A TORNADO WATCH.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23035.

[venture]

Upper Level disturbance is moving closer to the area. Storms are increasing pretty rapidly now in the Panhandle. One severe storm remains in NW OK moving into Woods County. Another strong one getting ready to move into Ellis County.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0094
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0948 PM CST THU FEB 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...THE TX PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE S PLAINS INTO
ADJACENT WRN OK/SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 23...

VALID 030348Z - 030545Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 23
CONTINUES.

STORMS -- AND ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL -- CONTINUE IN/NEAR WW 23.

STORMS HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH MORE RAPID DEVELOPMENT NOW ONGOING FROM
NEAR AMA SSWWD TO BAILEY CO TX...ON THE WRN FRINGE OF MODEST
INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE EWD INTO WRN OK. A
FEW STRONGER/SEVERE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED 1" HAIL OVER THE PAST HOUR
AND A HALF...AND EXPECT ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS TO EVOLVE WITH TIME
GIVEN MODEST CAPE BUT STRONG 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES.

A FEW STRONGER CELLS HAVE MOVED NEWD OUT OF THE WW INTO WOODS CO
OK/BARBER CO KS...WHERE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...WITH STORMS MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY LESS UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT INTO S CENTRAL KS...NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED NE OF THE
CURRENT WATCH.

..GOSS.. 02/03/2012

[sacolton]

Well, good. Maybe we'll get a little sprinkle in Edmond.

[venture]

Watch is being upgraded to a Tornado Watch and covers most areas just west of I-35.

Wwus30 kwns 030823
saw4
spc aww 030823
ww 24 tornado ok tx 030825z - 031600z
axis..70 statute miles east and west of line..
35wnw end/enid ok/ - 40s lts/altus ok/
..aviation coords.. 60nm e/w /30wnw end - 34w sps/ hail surface and aloft..1.5 inches. Wind gusts..60 knots.
Max tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 22035.

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 24
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

TORNADO WATCH 24 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC009-011-015-017-031-033-039-043-045-047-051-055-057-065-073-
075-093-129-137-141-149-153-031600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0024.120203T0825Z-120203T1600Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO
CANADIAN COMANCHE COTTON
CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS
GARFIELD GRADY GREER
HARMON JACKSON KINGFISHER
KIOWA MAJOR ROGER MILLS
STEPHENS TILLMAN WA****A
WOODWARD

[venture]

Add'l Info:



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0096
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN TX PANHANDLE...TX
SOUTH-PLAINS...NW TX...MAIN BODY OF OK EXCEPT ERN PORTIONS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 23...

VALID 030800Z - 030900Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 23
CONTINUES.

WW WILL BE AT LEAST PARTLY REPLACED BEFORE SCHEDULED 09Z EXPIRATION.
CURRENT THINKING IS SMALL TORNADO WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
SERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK...WITH SVR TSTM WW POSSIBLY NEEDED
LATER AND FARTHER NE ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN OK.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NEARLY COLLOCATED WITH BOWING CONVECTION
OVER CANADIAN COUNTY TX...AS OF 730Z...COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS SWRN
TX PANHANDLE TO SERN NM. BKN SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOWS AND
INTERMITTENT SUPERCELLS WAS EVIDENT FROM GRAY COUNTY TX NEWD ACROSS
NWRN OK TO ICT AREA. SRN PORTION OF MCS HAS BEEN BACKBUILDING LESS
THAN TRANSLATING...FOR NET NEWD SHIFT AWAY FROM SOUTH-PLAINS REGION.
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE NEWD THROUGH REMAINDER PRE-DAWN
HOURS...WITH SOME TENDENCY FOR EWD/FORWARD PROPAGATION ALONG
COLLECTIVE OUTFLOW. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALSO ARE EVIDENT AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY IN MOIST SECTOR...MOVING NNEWD ABOUT 40 KT ACROSS
PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL AND NRN OK. MAIN CONCERN ATTM IS EXTENT OF
SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW...GIVEN PRESENCE OF VERY SHALLOW NEAR-SFC
STABLE LAYER...OFFSET BY THETAE ADVECTION. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE
MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS BECOME
MORE ELEVATED WITH NEWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS REGION...IN MATCHING
REGIME OF GRADUAL SFC COOLING. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS HAVE BEEN
ENLARGED FAVORABLY BY BROAD/SLY/40-50 KT LLJ. FOR THOSE AREAS WITH
SFC-BASED PARCELS...EFFECTIVE SRH 300-500 J/KG IS EVIDENT...ALONG
WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. THIS SUPPORTS AT LEAST
MRGL TORNADO POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY FOR EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES WITH
ACCESS TO MOIST SECTOR...OR RELATIVELY DISCRETE/SUSTAINED CELLS
AHEAD OF LINE.

..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2012

[venture]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 24
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 225 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CST.

ISOLATED TORNADOES
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
ENID OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF ALTUS OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 23...

DISCUSSION...BROKEN SW-NE SQLN OVER WRN OK AND SE TX PANHANDLE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND MOVE SLOWLY SEWD...WHILE STORMS WITHIN THE
LINE MOVE MORE RAPIDLY NEWD ALONG IT. FARTHER E...WDLY SCTD
STORMS/SHOWERS ALSO MAY PERSIST ALONG SHALLOW WARM FRONTAL ZONE IN
WRN/CNTRL OK.
DEEP WIND FIELD ACROSS REGION WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...AND SELY NEAR-SFC FLOW COULD SUPPORT LOW LVL
MESOSCYCLONES. MODEST SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY
KEEP OVERALL TORNADO THREAT ISOLD. BUT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE WW
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN/SRN OK E AHEAD OF SQLN. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND/ISOLD TORNADOES
WITH ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS THAT DO FORM.
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD SLIGHTLY INCREASE OVER WRN OK
LATER THIS MORNING AS MID LVL SPEED MAX NOW OVER ERN NM CONTINUES
NEWD...POSSIBLY BOOSTING STORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.

[OKCisOK4me]

45 minutes to go... we gonna hit a spell of no advisories before it possibly gets active later in the day?

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0942 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 24...

VALID 031542Z - 031645Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 24 CONTINUES.

WW 24 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 16Z. MOST STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
OK INTO NWRN TX WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SUB-SEVERE DURING MUCH OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY INTENSIFY BY MID DAY OR THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN ANOTHER WW MAY BE NEEDED.

STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN WRN OK SWWD THROUGH WRN TX. OTHER
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING INTO CNTRL AND NRN OK WITHIN WARM ADVECTION
REGIME AND NORTH OF A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED WARM FRONT. VWP DATA
INDICATE SIZEABLE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS ALONG LLJ AXIS.
HOWEVER...MORNING RAOB DATA INDICATE A STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SFC
SUGGESTING THE EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER REMAINS ABOVE THE STRONGER LOW
LEVEL SHEAR. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO INTENSIFY DUE TO
WIDESPREAD STRATUS THAT WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO MIX OUT FROM THE SW
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND STORM INTENSIFICATION. IF THIS
OCCURS...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

..DIAL.. 02/03/2012


ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...

[Jesseda]

Im stupid i cant understand the abbreviations on most of the things listed.. So is the dry line going to go past okc area before these storms form up in the afternoon? where is the line currently? JAIYK

[SoonerDave]

Im stupid i cant understand the abbreviations on most of the things listed.. So is the dry line going to go past okc area before these storms form up in the afternoon? where is the line currently? JAIYK

I know some, but not all, of the acronyms in that bulletin, but if what I"m reading in that last post is anywhere near right, they don't specifically mention the dryline. Sounds to me like at least one of the big variables going into the afternoon and evening is whether the cloud deck in SW Oklahoma dissipates sufficiently to allow the heating (and consequent instability) necessary for the storms that do form to strengthen and grow into the atmosphere where the shear is present and induce the storms to rotate.

It would seem to me based on that map that if the warm front were to shift north or northeast much it would put the OK and Cleveland county areas under a better risk for the storms. As it looks right now, being on the edge of that front, don't think they can declare with certainty one way or the other.

[venture]

Dave pretty much nailed it. Cold front is back out to the west where the line of storms are now. We have another line moving through Norman/Duncan/Waurika right now. Behind this line there is clearing in SW OK with cumulus cloud development. The area that clears out ahead of the front this afternoon will have the best risk for severe weather. There are already some new storms developing down there which could limit things if it all gets clouded up right away.

[BoulderSooner]

any chance for some cold weather in the long term forcast?

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OK THROUGH NWRN AND A PORTION OF NCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 031759Z - 031930Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY FROM NWRN TX THROUGH
SWRN OK THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE SUPERCELLS AND LINE
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MIX OUT FROM NWRN TX THROUGH SWRN OK WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S ALLOWING FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION. VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN
PRE-FRONTAL CUMULUS ALONG MOIST AXIS WITH MLCAPE FROM 800-1200 J/KG.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE OF DESTABILIZATION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY A WEAK CAP AND FURTHER
DIABATIC WARMING. ONCE STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED...EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR AOA 40 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
AND BOWING SEGMENTS. A 30-40 KT LLJ WILL PERSIST FROM N TX THROUGH
CNTRL OK THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MAINTAIN 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS
SUFFICIENT FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

..DIAL.. 02/03/2012

[venture]

Storm north of Frederick is intensifying pretty rapidly.

[Bunty]

Heavy rain in Stillwater as of 12:40 pm as it nears 1 inch, or better. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4+ inches common in northwest Oklahoma. You can see the rain on the OSU webcam here:http://www.ocolly.com/webcam

[venture]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 25
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH/NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1230 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
MINERAL WELLS TEXAS TO 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF ARDMORE OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ALONG THE DRYLINE AND COLD
FRONT DRYLINE INTERSECTION FROM SWRN OK INTO WRN N TX. STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE ENE INTO AN INSTABILITY
AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE TO 1200 J/KG AND 50-60 KTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO NE-SW ORIENTED BANDS AND
CLUSTERS WITH DMGG WINDS AND HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE O-2KM WIND FIELDS
WERE BEGINNING TO VEER OVER FAR SWRN OK...SUFFICIENT 0-1KM SHEAR WAS
NOTED ON THE TLX/PURCELL PROFILERS TO INCLUDE POSSIBILITY OF A
COUPLE TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0025
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2012

WT 0025
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 10%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 10%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 20%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 70%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 1.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 450
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24030
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

[venture]

Did bring the chat room up for today: http://www.chatokc.com/severechat.html

[adaniel]

I am driving to Dallas in about 3 hours. Would it be a good idea to hold off until later this evening?