Oklahoma Weather Discussion - January/February 2012

[venture]

What were the actual rain totals for the metro?

Here is the 5-day image so the recent rainfall doesn't drop from view for a few days.

[ou48A]

Much of north Texas received very heavy rain.
That might help saturate the atmosphere quicker and help imppove the odds of it raining here when the gulf jet gets going

[bluedogok]

My wife was telling me about the flooding in the Austin area, seems like that rain was a good storm for areas in desperate need of rain. I know the mountains here got a lot of snow from the systems last week/weekend which helps the snow pack here. We actually had more snow in the Denver Metro area than Vail has this winter up until these recent storms.

[HewenttoJared]

An amusing weather story
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...ers-daily-mail

[OKCisOK4me]

I like how that map above shows 1.45 or so inches of rain here in the metro, but the airport received a whopping 2.23" as shown by all the news stations!

[venture]

I like how that map above shows 1.45 or so inches of rain here in the metro, but the airport received a whopping 2.23" as shown by all the news stations!

If you follow the color coding, the yellow is actually 2"+. So that matches up right. Shows that just because one reporting station got a lot of rain doesn't mean an area a short distance away did too.

[adaniel]

Well there is a bullseye right over the airport (extreme SW OK County).

[OKCisOK4me]

If you follow the color coding, the yellow is actually 2"+. So that matches up right. Shows that just because one reporting station got a lot of rain doesn't mean an area a short distance away did too.

Oh yeah, I wasn't disagreeing. Look at Edmond, they only got something like 1.63". I was just pointing out that it's kinda funny how that works out, thank you.

[BG918]

Lots of really cold air bottled up over Alaska and northwest Canada right now...but the jetstream is keeping it from moving south. We had this same setup before the last blizzard (the 1 year anniversary of which will be Tuesday) when temps. were in the low 70's over most of Oklahoma the weekend before and then the jetstream dove south. No indications that is happening in the short-term forecast though...I'm sure Venture can fill us in if there is something on the long-term horizon..

[venture]

Looks like the cold air may break out on the 6th and start heading south. It'll get to OK around the 9th and take us down to near or below freezing through the 12th. GFS keeps it dry though until the 12th with a chance of light snow. Granted that is the very last segment of its current forecast window, so I wouldn't get too excited yet.

[venture]

Extremely boring from now through Feb 10th. Now you all know I say the end of the forecast run is normally garbage, but I'll entertain this as it has remained some what. Main thing cold air is showing that it won't come in until the 11th into the 12th. Moisture is developing ahead of a storm system on the 11th. Through 6AM the 12th generally widespread light rain over much of the state. A quarter inch or less. Morning of the 12th cold air will move in start with the NW 1/3rd. Will see it change over to snow. Mostly rain elsewhere still but there will be a band of freezing rain/sleet between. Should see it go to all snow north of I-40 through the day.

Could be pretty significant, but way far out.

[venture]

This will probably be gone in the next run, but this the snowfall forecast for next weekend (Saturday into Sunday) based on the 12Z GFS run. This is the first time it has appeared.

[s00nr1]

Was just about to post something similar venture. This is the first time in awhile this winter I've seen some relatively Arctic-ish air coinciding with moisture. I still have my doubts though considering the pattern we've been stuck in the last 2 months.

[venture]

And yes...on the 18Z run this solution is gone. :-) General rule of thumb, let it get through 4 runs of the model before getting excited. lol

[s00nr1]

Haha exactly right. It's tougher this year to have patience as most of us are looking for some glimmer of hope from the models that we might see some snow before spring rolls in.

[venture]

Right now I would say best guess is we are going to end up having a fairly dry February. Couple bouts with passing storm systems that might start an early storm season. Fire season will probably be pretty active and the drought, which has seen some relief, will start to increase again.

If past history is any indicator, this Spring is going to shape up to be a pretty rowdy one as well. The numbers below are just for Oklahoma, of course, and show that EF5s normally occur during La Nina effected Springs, but EF4s are more likely outside La Nina's grasp. A study was put out early last year that touched on this and shower La Nina years typically bring the most violent tornadoes, but not really higher numbers. However for Oklahoma, our two biggest years happened with an ending La Nina. Does it really mean anything? Overall not really. Oklahoma will have tornadoes this spring, just like the sun will rise tomorrow...unless it super novas and then we have nothing to worry about. Just don't be shocked if we see it start early this year and have another round of violent tornadoes. We've never had EF5/F5 tornadoes in back to back years.


La Nina Impacted Springs...

2011: 118 Tornadoes - 1EF5, 3 EF4s
2008: 77 Tornadoes - 1 EF4
2001: 61 Tornadoes
2000: 44 Tornadoes
1999: 145 Tornadoes - 1F5, 2 F4s
1996: 48 Tornadoes
1989: 20 Tornadoes
1985: 36 Tornadoes
1976: 28 Tornadoes - 1 F5, 2 F4
1975: 34 Tornadoes
1974: 45 Tornadoes - 1 F4
1971: 39 Tornadoes
1968: 55 Tornadoes
1965: 74 Tornadoes -- 1 F4
1957: 107 Tornadoes -- 5 F4s
1956: 49 Tornadoes -- 2 F4s
1955: 77 Tornadoes -- 3 F5s, 1 F4
1951: 43 Tornadoes
1950: 23 Tornadoes -- 1 F4

Non-La Nina Spring F5/EF5s: 1960, 1982
Non-La Nina Spring F4/EF4s: 1954 (2), 1959 (2), 1960 (4), 1961 (1), 1962 (2), 1966 (1), 1967 (2), 1970 (1), 1972 (1), 1973 (2), 1977 (1), 1978 (1), 1979 (3), 1981 (2), 1982 (1), 1984 (2), 1991 (3), 1992 (1), 1993 (1), 2003 (1), 2009 (1), 2010 (2),

[venture]

The risk for a snow event next weekend hasn't returned. So we'll chalk that up to a fluke. Pretty boring coming up, but some rain chances coming up in the extended term. Also a risk for maybe some severe weather around Feb 9th.

[venture]

Still not much in the way of snow for Oklahoma, so lets talk severe weather.

Low probably tomorrow (Wednesday) in far Southeast Oklahoma. Instability will be pretty decent so could see one or two severe storms.

Next chance looks like Friday across most of the state. Nothing extreme or high end...its February. However, we could see a low to slight risk of severe weather across most of Oklahoma especially from NW to Central to Southern OK. GFS is also increase the probably of very heavy rain. This is been consistent for 3-4 model runs now, so I'm going to bring attention to it. It looks like Nebraska and back towards Illinois could be in store for a good dumping of snow from this.

[SoonerDave]

Starting to look to me like there's a more than decent chance we're going to go snow-free this year. I surely don't want a repeat of the Christmas Eve Blizzard of a couple of years ago, but I wouldn't mind a nice dusting that lasted a day or so...

[venture]

Starting to look to me like there's a more than decent chance we're going to go snow-free this year. I surely don't want a repeat of the Christmas Eve Blizzard of a couple of years ago, but I wouldn't mind a nice dusting that lasted a day or so...

I think officially we have a trace of snow for the season so far. For record keeping purposes, the winter/snow season for the NWS does not follow the calendar year. It goes July 1st to June 30th. I would like to see us get a nice light snowfall of a few inches over a couple days to make things pretty and white outside. However, it does appear it probably won't happen this season. We might get a quick snowstorm dumping 6 inches and then it melt the next day.

If anything it looks like we are moving into severe weather season early.

[SoonerDave]

I think officially we have a trace of snow for the season so far. For record keeping purposes, the winter/snow season for the NWS does not follow the calendar year. It goes July 1st to June 30th. I would like to see us get a nice light snowfall of a few inches over a couple days to make things pretty and white outside. However, it does appear it probably won't happen this season. We might get a quick snowstorm dumping 6 inches and then it melt the next day.

If anything it looks like we are moving into severe weather season early.

That's exactly what I was afraid of, venture, was just thinking about this the other day in fact.

[Roadhawg]

Growing up in Nebraska we always needed the winter snow to get the much needed ground water... hope it's not another hot dry year like the last one.

[venture]

Slight Risk in the state Thursday and just below slight risk on Friday.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CST WED FEB 01 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
AS THE EXIT REGION OF A 65 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A WELL-DEVELOPED 40 TO 55 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING
ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND SW OK
SWD INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES DUE TO
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. WEAKER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
SWD ACROSS WCNTRL TX SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MORE ISOLATED
IN THE SAN ANGELO AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR ABILENE THURSDAY EVENING SHOW THE BEST
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH MLCAPE OF 1200 O 1500 J/KG...40
TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 C/KM.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
SUPERCELLS. IF THE ACTIVITY CAN BECOME SFC-BASED...THEN A WIND
DAMAGE THREAT COULD ALSO BE PRESENT DURING THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. FURTHER TO THE NORTH INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND SW
OK...THE PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE ELEVATED
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.

AT THIS POINT...THE MODELS HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT BUT THERE
ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS STORMS FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THE GFS IS FURTHER EAST. HAVE TAKEN A COMPROMISED
SOLUTION BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
THE NAM. THIS BRINGS THE SLIGHT RISK FURTHER NORTHWEST OF THE
PREVIOUS OUTLOOK AND EXTENDS THE SLIGHT SWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS MAY APPROACH 60 F.

..BROYLES.. 02/01/2012

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CST WED FEB 01 2012

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY AS A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE ERN SIDE OF
THE LOW INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY FROM NORTH
TX NWD INTO SRN KS. A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT COULD EXIST WITH STORMS
THAT HAVE ACCESS TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. DURING THE DAY...THE
MODELS MOVE THE CONVECTION EWD ACROSS KS AND INTO ECNTRL OK WITH A
SWD EXPANSION INTO CNTRL AND EAST TX. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THIS SCENARIO BUT THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES
INCLUDE TIMING THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND GAGING HOW FAR
NORTH STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SUGGEST THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTHEAST TX WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE
FORECAST IN THE 1200 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50
KT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT DALLAS CONVECT USING SFC-BASED PARCELS
SUGGESTING A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY EXIST. AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
THREAT MAY ALSO BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY IF SUPERCELLS CAN ORGANIZE.
THE HAIL THREAT COULD EXTEND NNWWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS INTO
NCNTRL OK AND SRN KS WHERE COLD AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST IN THE CORE OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. HOWEVER...THE HAIL THREAT IN THE CNTRL PLAINS
SHOULD BE KEPT MARGINAL DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND ONGOING
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT IN AREAS SOUTH OF DALLAS
WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO THE LIMITED.

..BROYLES.. 02/01/2012

[SoonerQueen]

[venture]

New SPC Outlooks are out...Slight Risk both Today and Friday.



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
DOWNSTREAM OF A STRONG MID LATITUDE PACIFIC JET...BLOCKING APPEARS
LIKELY TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS
WILL INCLUDE THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER HIGH CENTER
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN CANADA...AND THE
COINCIDING EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...NOW DIGGING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FORMATION OF THE LATTER
FEATURE...WHILE GRADUALLY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...COUPLED WITH NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN OFF
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...PROBABLY WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL STATES LATE TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ONE AREA OF
STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE
AFTERNOON...ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS.
ANOTHER AREA IS EXPECTED IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW...ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SEVERE STORMS.

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...
AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A LESS PROGRESSIVE
REGIME...UNCERTAINTY LINGERS CONCERNING THE SMALLER SCALE
DEVELOPMENTS...INCLUDING THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AND
VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS THAT IMPACTS THE ASSESSMENT OF
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. MODELS DO GENERALLY INDICATE THAT
DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN AS SEASONABLY HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AIR RETURNS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS...BUT
LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS PROGGED
TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK. FURTHERMORE...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONIC UPPER JET
AXIS...MAY REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF THE WARM SECTOR.

WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT APPEAR
OUT OF THE QUESTION BY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...THE PRIMARY INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL THE 03/03-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS WHEN A FOCUSED AREA OF
STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION COULD SUPPORT AN
EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SIZABLE CLOCKWISE-CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH 30-50 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN
ADDITION TO A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...IN THE PRESENCE OF MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE TENDENCY LIKELY
WILL BE FOR ACTIVITY TO BECOME ROOTED ABOVE AT LEAST A SHALLOW NEAR
SURFACE STABLE LAYER...PARTICULARLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WHICH
PROBABLY WILL MINIMIZE THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL.



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CST THU FEB 02 2012

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND OZARKS...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/OZARKS...
A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH A 35 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE FRIDAY MORNING FROM CNTRL
TX NWD ACROSS OK INTO SRN KS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS NWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH A SEVERE THREAT
POSSIBLE ON THE SRN END OF THE STORM COMPLEX IN NW TX. THIS LARGE
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EWD DURING THE DAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MODELS
EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE AN MCS AND MOVE THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EWD
ACROSS SE OK...NE TX AND SRN AR DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOW THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER FROM NORTH OF DALLAS EWD TO
TEXARKANA. THIS CORRIDOR IS LOCATED ON THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND IS ON THE SRN EDGE OF MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A 55 TO 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET. A FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE AND SOMEWHAT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG
WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 C/KM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THE HAIL THREAT
COULD EXTEND NNWWD ACROSS ECNTRL OK INTO SRN KS WHERE THE STORMS
WILL BE INCREASINGLY ELEVATED BUT TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COLDER IN
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE
MAINLY FROM THE RED RIVER SWD WHERE SFC-BASED STORMS ARE LIKELY AND
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE.

MODEL FORECASTS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM BUT DIFFER ON HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTIVE
THREAT WILL BE. THE GFS SHOWS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ACROSS
SRN AR WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF KEEP THE STRONGEST CONVECTION TO THE
WEST. AT THIS POINT...AM LEANING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH MOVES
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES OUT OF EAST TX FROM FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WOULD PROBABLY ENABLE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE OZARKS SO
HAVE EXTENDED THE SLIGHT INTO SCNTRL AR. THE MAIN PROBLEM ACROSS NRN
OK AND SRN KS FOR A SEVERE THREAT COULD BE WEAK INSTABILITY FROM
PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE
KEPT THE SLIGHT RISK MAINLY FROM NEAR THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO
EXTENDING SWD FROM THERE.