Oklahoma Weather Discussion - January/February 2012

[jn1780]

Just be patient. It will come. Earth is still traveling further away from the sun until sometime in March. February can shock us to death.

In other news, there are 3 dates of Friday the 13th this year all 13 weeks apart. Enjoy while it last as doomsday is near.

No, the days have been getting longer now since the first day of winter. Spring is when day and night are roughly the same (Equinox). Your point is still valid though, the peak of potential cold air is sometime in February. Takes a little while for that stored energy within Earth's atmosphere to build back up.

FYI. The Earth is not getting further away from the Sun. our particular location on Earth gets a little bit further away from the Sun between summer solstice and winter solstice. Its just the relation of the Earths axis to the Sun as the Earth orbits the Sun. Basically, on the first day of summer(in North America) the northern hemisphere is tilted toward the Sun and the southern hemisphere is tilted away from the Sun and vice versa for the first day of winter.

Easier to explain in pictures.

[Thunder]

I thought Spring marks the day getting longer. :-(

I do know that Earth does not circulate the sun (as shown in the above graphic) in a perfect circle. I know about the axis-tilt-rotation, but I was talking about the sun distance during the Winter months.

Remember last February, we had a snowstorm, it was quite a blast. I remember, because I was at Lake Hefner with a dude on the bench by the lighthouse and there was lighted hearts on it.

[jn1780]

I thought Spring marks the day getting longer. :-(

I do know that Earth does not circulate the sun (as shown in the above graphic) in a perfect circle. I know about the axis-tilt-rotation, but I was talking about the sun distance during the Winter months.

Remember last February, we had a snowstorm, it was quite a blast. I remember, because I was at Lake Hefner with a dude on the bench by the lighthouse and there was lighted hearts on it.

Believe it or not the Earth is actually closests to the Sun during our winter, but that really doesn't affect temperatures as much as our northern hemisphere being pointed away from the Sun. Again, it takes a little while for that polar air mass to heat back up just like it takes a while for it to cool down during winter months.

[Thunder]

:-o

[Jim Kyle]

Actually, the major reason for the temperature difference is the ANGLE at which the sun's rays reach us. In the winter, when the sun is far to the south of us (as we see it), the rays have to penetrate quite a bit more atmosphere to get to us -- and the North Pole doesn't get any direct sunlight at all for part of that season. In the summer, when the sun is more directly overhead and it's always shining up at the North Pole, there's less atmosphere to absorb and diffuse the rays, and the polar region doesn't stay as cold.

Below the equator, the reverse is true -- which is why the folks down in Oz celebrate Christmas in their summer time, and people in the tropics where the sun is always more directly overhead don't have significant temperature changes year-round.

Our actual distance from the sun doesn't vary all that much from maximum to minimum, and even if that were a significant factor it would not explain why the seasons are reversed south of the equator.

[Uncle Slayton]

Absolutely disgusting, vile weather we're having. I haven't even burned a half rick of wood this season. It's seriously demoralizing to have highs in the 50s and 60s in January.

[OKCisOK4me]

Screw that, I love it!

[Bunty]

Screw that, I love it!

I do too. I already know how damned bad and awesome blizzards are from two recent winters around here, and I'm not anxious to go back to them or that freaky below zero morning low from last winter.

[ljbab728]

I third that!!!!!

[Thunder]

At least we don't have to deal with all brown everywhere. Grass are growing. A neighbor mowed her yard the other day.

[Thunder]

We still got time. I'm sure we will get lots of snow coming soon. Until then, lets enjoy this beautiful picture.

[Roadhawg]

I watched this on TLC last night and I must say that young lady was quite impressive and I admire her passion on doing what you enjoy.

http://www.eversostrange.com/2012/01...-storm-chaser/

[venture]

Long range forecast looks pretty boring. Looks like a chance for some good rain towards the 25th/26th (could be heavy) and also around the 1st of February (lighter). Then a few days into February the GFS is wanting to do a very aggressive shove of the arctic air into the US. Highs in the 20s from Oklahoma to the north...highs below zero from Nebraska and north. No major snow or ice chances coming up. January looks like it'll go down as a very tame month, but February and March can toss major winter storms at us.

The other side to the story is fire season. So long range fire outlook...

Sunday 22nd - Extreme Fire Conditions possibles. Winds 20-30 mph with higher gusts. Relative Humidity will be under 20% for much of Central & Western OK.
Monday 23rd - Very High Fire Conditions. Winds a bit calmer but RH values still low.
February 3rd and 4th - Way out there, but RH values projected to be extremely low and winds will be up there. I would hope that good rains on the 25th and 26th would remove this risk, but we'll see.

[ljbab728]

Long range forecast looks pretty boring. Looks like a chance for some good rain towards the 25th/26th (could be heavy) and also around the 1st of February (lighter). Then a few days into February the GFS is wanting to do a very aggressive shove of the arctic air into the US. Highs in the 20s from Oklahoma to the north...highs below zero from Nebraska and north. No major snow or ice chances coming up. January looks like it'll go down as a very tame month, but February and March can toss major winter storms at us.

The other side to the story is fire season. So long range fire outlook...

Sunday 22nd - Extreme Fire Conditions possibles. Winds 20-30 mph with higher gusts. Relative Humidity will be under 20% for much of Central & Western OK.
Monday 23rd - Very High Fire Conditions. Winds a bit calmer but RH values still low.
February 3rd and 4th - Way out there, but RH values projected to be extremely low and winds will be up there. I would hope that good rains on the 25th and 26th would remove this risk, but we'll see.

I like boring during the winter.

[venture]

I like boring during the winter.

I much rather have a nice gentle snow with a good snow pack outside to keep things pretty bright and cover up the dead stuff. Not to mention, it reduces of having to deal with looking out the back window and seeing smoke and flames. Once was enough for me. :-)

[venture]

GFS is wanting to mix in some colder air starting on the 25th. The system previously mentioned around this period will be getting stronger as it moves east, but GFS wants to develop wrap around moisture through the 26th. It appears that this could be rain/snow mix or all snow in much of the state. We'll see if it sticks around in later runs, but it is pretty close in time to take note. Snowfall looks light in more areas but don't be shocked to see 3-6 inches in some areas. Icing does not look like an issue right now.

[venture]

Welcome to fire season. Red Flag Warnings are out for most of the area now. Winds gusting to 60PM and 3 possible fires near Chickasha, Norman, and Seminole.

[venture]

From KWTV: Firefighters are conducting a mandatory evacuation of the Turtle Creek Mobile home park in Norman due to a wildfire.

This is SW Norman near I-35.

[bandnerd]

[QUOTE=venture79;502000]Welcome to fire season. Red Flag Warnings are out for most of the area now. Winds gusting to 60PM and 3 possible fires near Chickasha, Norman, and Seminole.

I believe it. A gust just about blew us into another lane on NW Expressway this afternoon.

[Bunty]

If this 48 hr NAM map works out, then the east side of OKC metro area and Tulsa area will get soaked the most. But Mike Morgan of TV 5 places the most heaviest part in the southeast part of the state.

[BG918]

The GFS was shifting most of that rainfall to the SE but the NAM is still showing 2-3 inches over central and eastern OK. We should know more this evening.

[venture]

These are from this morning's run of the GFS (first) and NAM (second).

[Bunty]

Well, darn, the GFS forecast looks too much like Mike Morgan's projections.

[venture]

Short term HRRR output of total precip through Midnight. Light rain and few heavier pockets with thunder moving through SW OK now.

[Achilleslastand]

What were the actual rain totals for the metro?