Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2011

[venture]

Storm system is tracking further north, so yeah...won't see major amounts of rain over widespread areas.

[OKCisOK4me]

Yeah, it's not doing much, lol

[venture]

This is HRRR's latest rainfall total forecast...

[ou48A]

Tucumcari Municipal
Lat: 35.19 Lon: -103.6 Elev: 4051
Last Update on Dec 19, 3:53 pm MST


Heavy Snow Freezing Fog and Windy

30 °F
(-1 °C) Humidity: 92 %
Wind Speed: N 31 G 40 MPH

Barometer: 29.81" (1009.5 mb)
Dewpoint: 28 °F (-2 °C)
Wind Chill: 15 °F (-9 °C)
Visibility: 0.25 mi.

[ou48A]

Garden City Regional Airport
Lat: 37.94 Lon: -100.72 Elev: 2882
Last Update on Dec 19, 7:54 pm CST


Heavy Snow Fog/Mist and Windy

28 °F
(-2 °C) Humidity: 92 %
Wind Speed: NE 33 G 41 MPH
Barometer: 29.96" (1015.9 mb)
Dewpoint: 26 °F (-3 °C)
Wind Chill: 11 °F (-12 °C)
Visibility: 0.75 mi.

[venture]

Second system coming through last half of the week. 18Z models hinted at this, 00Z GFS is coming in now and is showing some pretty widespread snow accumulations. More once the rest of the data comes in.

[venture]

Through Christmas Eve...looks like scattered light snow, but no real accumulation chances in Central areas. The western half of OK could see up to an inch dusting. Then NE OK about the same. We'll see how this develops since this is a recent development.

[ou48A]

I have never seen strange clouds like this on the link

http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=55225

[MDot]

I have never seen strange clouds like this on the link

http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=55225

They look like something you would see in some sort of viking story. LOL

[kevinpate]

I have never seen strange clouds like this on the link

http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=55225

Whole new meaning to when they yell out Roll Tide!

[bluedogok]

We have some heavy snow going on right now, this was taken in Aurora. It was snowing downtown when I left the office at 5:00, big heavy flakes and very little wind. Is this the storm that is supposed to hit OKC? It should end here tomorrow afternoon.

[Maynard]

Winter solstice occurs at 1130pm (CST).




(Middle high German, modern German, and English translation below)

Middle High German:

Diu werlt was gelf, rôt unde blâ,
Grüene, in dem walde und anderswâ,
Die kleinen vogel sungen dâ,
Nû schrîet aber diu nebelkrâ.
Hat si iht ander varwe? Jâ,
Sist worden bleich und übergrâ.
Des rimpfet sich vil manic brâ.
Ich saz uf eime grüenen lê,
Da entsprungen bluomen unde klê,
Zwischen mir und jenem sê.
Der ougenweide was dâ mê.
Dâ wir schapel brâchen ê,
Dâ lît nû rîfe und ouch der snê.
Daz tuot den vogellînen wê.
Die tôren sprechent, sniâ, snî!
Und arme liute, owî, owî!
Des bin ich swaere alsam ein blî.
Des winters sorge hân ich drî:
Swaz der und ouch der ander si,
Der wurde ich aller schiere frî,
Waer úns der sumer nahe bî.
--------------------------​---------
Modern German:

Die Welt war gelb, rot und blau
Grüne in dem Walde und anderswo,
Die kleinen Vögel sangen dort,
Nun schreit aber die Nebelkräh.
Hat sie nicht eine andere Farbe? Ja,
Sie ist geworden bleich und übergrau.
Naht vielfach sich manch Sorgenfalt.
Ich saß auf einem grünen Hügel,
Dem entsprangen Blumen und Klee,
Zwischen mir und einem See.
Eine Augenweide war das.
Wo wir suchten Blumen,
Da liegt nun Reife und auch der Schnee.
Das tut den Vögelein weh.
Die Tore sagen: Seht den Schnee!
Und arme Leute: Oweh, oweh!
Deswegen fühl ich Schwere bleiern,
Des Winters Sorge hab ich drei:
was das unter anderem sei,
Ich würde aller Sorgen frei,
Wär uns der Sommer nahe bei.
--------------------------​----------
English:

The world was yellow, red and blue
Green in the forest and elsewhere
The small birds sang there
But now the fog crow screams.
Has it another color? Yes
It became pale and overgray.
The seam multiplies itself many times.
I sat on a green hill
Flowers and clover sprang there
Between me and a lake.
That was an eyemeadow.
Where we sought flowers
There maturity and also the snow lies now.
That hurts the little birds.
Say the gates: Sees the snow!
And poor people: Oweh, oweh!
Therefore I feel heavy and leaden
I have the winter worry three:
What that would be among other things
I would become all worries free
Were the summer nearly by

[OKCisOK4me]

^^okaaaay

[venture]

Nothing to get excited about tomorrow. Maybe a list dusting through parts of Oklahoma. Models still differ on amounts and location. Maybe some freezing drizzle around as well in places that get below freezing.

[BG918]

Nothing to get excited about tomorrow. Maybe a list dusting through parts of Oklahoma. Models still differ on amounts and location. Maybe some freezing drizzle around as well in places that get below freezing.

Another dud of a system. At least the media didn't get people worked up over this one.

Possible outbreak of colder air end of next week. I'm headed to Colorado for a few days of skiing so I'm hoping the mountains get more snow.

[venture]

This is the snowfall forecast for today. Some areas could see up to an inch, but I wouldn't even expect a dusting in most cases.

[Easy180]

Boring thru the 1st week of Jan...Let's keep it this way til March

[ZYX2]

There's some light snow here in Tulsa (Bixby) right now.

[venture]

Boring thru the 1st week of Jan...Let's keep it this way til March

If we wanted that, we'd all live in San Diego. :-P

[Easy180]

If we wanted that, we'd all live in San Diego. :-P

Too spensive

[venture]

So potential for some Christmas snow is the focus on this post. First off the NAM and GFS don't agree on this at all. GFS breaks out precip over parts of Oklahoma while the NAM keeps it completely dry.

First thing, the surface temps. They are not favorable for accumulating snow at all. NAM has the NW half 40 to 45, and the SW half 45 to 52. GFS has areas west/north of I-44 roughly 37 to 42. Areas to the SE of that range 40 to 50. So why are they talking snow at all? Next part...

Models do agree at a cold pocket of air in the upper levels. NAM has below freezing at the 850MB level over much of Southwest and South Central OK. GFS is below freezing over only SW OK. So theoretically any precip fall could have a chance at being snow, but it very well could melt as it gets closer to the surface. As far as precip goes, NAM is dry except over far SE OK as a system moves through Texas. GFS pops up a little area of precip over SW OK. It indicates that this would be mostly snow and could accumulate up to an inch. It might be possible with ground temps in the mid 30s in those areas, but we'll probably see them warm into the 40s as we get closer.

So I'm going to play it this way. This is a chance for light snow Southwest, but accumulations will be tough with above freezing surface and ground temps. If a burst is heavy enough, could see up to an inch in some areas. For the rest of us, it looks very slim that we'll see a snowflake in the air. Could happen if the GFS is right by the setup, but just has the positioning off a tad.

There isn't any run to run consistency with this solution, so we'll have to see how it plays out the rest of today.

[Bunty]

Too spensive

So who knows of former Oklahomans now living in San Diego who wish they could move back to Oklahoma?

[Uncle Slayton]

Boring thru the 1st week of Jan...Let's keep it this way til March

No thanks...seen far too much of the bloody sun already. I'd prefer no more til mid-April with a transition straight to an active storm season.

Between now and then, heavy grey skies, temps in the 20s (max) and all varieties of frozen precip, just so it doesn't get boring.

[venture]

NAM and GFS are together now on some light accumulation on Christmas Day in SW Oklahoma. Don't expect much of anything anywhere else. Long range looks very dry and very quiet. Looks like a very intense storm system could be in the Southern Plains January 5th and 6th. State is forecast above freezing, but mostly mid 30s to mid 40s. Some areas could see over an inch of liquid precip. Upper air temps will be a few degrees above freezing it appears, but there is a risk that the Western 1/3rd of OK could see a rain/snow mix.

If anything, that is the one to watch as it appears now. Things will change a lot especially since this solution hasn't appeared until tonight.

[bluedogok]

My wife got stuck in the Midland/Odessa area and wasn't able to fly up here today. She got about 20 miles outside of Monahans when the roads really started getting bad, started snowing more this afternoon. Her niece hit some ice last night headed back to Monahans from Odessa and bounced off a guardrail then shot across the other side of I-20 and hit one on the wrong side. The only part of the country really seeing this and it hit down there this weekend.