Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2011

[venture]

Accuweather shows us as snowless thru Christmas

Accuweather is a joke in and of itself. :-P

New GFS model is rolling in now. Will post some comments later if I'm still awake. Probably tomorrow.

[venture]

GFS has shown snow somewhere in the Southern Plains next week for the last several days. It'll go away and then pop back. On this evening's GFS...it popped back.

[OKCisOK4me]

Accuweather is a joke in and of itself. :-P

New GFS model is rolling in now. Will post some comments later if I'm still awake. Probably tomorrow.

My cousin in law is a meteorologist up in Lawrence and he calls Accuweather, Pukeuweather if that tells u anything!

[Bunty]

Im pretty sure we are not technically out of the drought. At least not yet.

That's true, but much of far eastern Oklahoma is not even in a drought. You can get a complete look at the drought coverage in Oklahoma here: http://stillwaterweather.com/droughtmonitor.php#drought

[SoonerDave]

Wasn't Accuweather involved a while back in some intense lobbying effort to have the NWS or NOAA shut down and make itself some sole-source vendor for weather forecasts, or some similarly idiotic thing?

[bandnerd]

There's also this kind of weather forecast:

http://youtu.be/j7UBlZcZSE0

[HewenttoJared]

At least AccuWeather got rid of Joe Bastardi. That's a plus.

[SoonerDave]

Hey, Venture, are you up on this Weather Ready Nation project? Jed Castles tweeted about it the other day, sounds like there were some interesting (and some odd) presentations about how the public reacts to weather warnings, how warnings should be issued, all manner of things.

[venture]

Yes the Norman sirens work. Glad we got that cleared up. ;-)

[ou48A]

Is there anyone that knows why the city of Norman activated its tornado sirens a few minutes ago?
Thanks.

[ou48A]

Is there anyone that knows why the city of Norman activated its tornado sirens a few minutes ago?
Thanks.

KREF 1400 AM Just said that it was a system wide malfunction....

[venture]

Probably doing a test on the system and it malfunctioned and didn't mute the audio portion of the siren. As far as I know, the new system can be tested with out any audible warning being heard. So just an oops.

[ou48A]

Probably doing a test on the system and it malfunctioned and didn't mute the audio portion of the siren. As far as I know, the new system can be tested with out any audible warning being heard. So just an oops.

According to what was said in the paper they can supposedly test the system in a silent mode.

The WX people had been talking about the threat of sever WX for today, a few days ago.
May be they should keep their hands off the sirens (except for real events) when there are days when CB has been in the forecast.

[venture]

Okay, no maps yet...I'll work on those as we get a bit closer. However, I will say that it does appear the risk for accumulating snow is going up as models are staying pretty consistent now. It does look like GFS and ECMWF are decently similar with storm track placement and speed. However getting into the fine details of what happens at the surface is a bit tougher since ECMWF data is pretty heavily restricted. So this is the GFS take with a dose of common sense to keep thing in perspective. Remember, I know I say this every time, none of this is locked in and will change a bit before we get there.

Forecast period is Monday the 19th through Thursday the 22nd

Monday - 6AM
Light precip will start generally from 30 miles north of I-44 back to the southeast into almost all of SE OK except for the McCurtain County. Generally like precip of 0.10 to 0.25" of rain, with amounts up to 0.50" near Tulsa and areas of NE OK. Surface temps mid 40s to mid 50s, so no issue with frozen precip. Light winds.

Monday - 12PM
Cold air starts to dig south through the TX & OK panhandles. Temps there will be falling into the 30s at the surface and below freezing in the upper levels. Main body of OK will be 50s from I-40 south. North of I-40 there will be mid to upper 40s east of I-35, and mid 30s to low 40s west of I-35. Precip looks like it will be moderate to heavy in NE OK with some areas getting up to an inch during this period. Around a half inch Central. Half inch to 0.75" in SW OK. Accumulating snow will start in the TX PH with about 1 to 2 inches of snow. Winds increase 10-20 mph in Northern OK.

Monday - 6PM
Storm system starts to wrap up. Winds will be up 25 to 35 mph across Central & Western OK with higher gusts. Liquid precip rates will also increase a lot over the start. Roughly the entire main body of OK will be around a half inch to an inch. Now the trick is how much will freeze. Surface temps will be near freezing in most of NW and West Central OK...mid 30s in Northern OK. Generally 40s to 50s from I-44 and back to the SE. Upper air temps are cooling at about the same rate as surface, so we are looking at mostly all snow for the far Northern tier of counties west of I-35 until about Woodward. Then it will dive south to about Elk City in West Central OK. Right now does not look like any freezing rain threat and a small transition area of a rain/snow mix to the SE of the snow area.

Snowfall amounts will depend on all the various factors, but we'll go worst case as usual. Look for a general swath of 3 to 6 inches for most of the area expecting snow. If snow to liquid ratios are higher, those amounts go up. If more sleet and rain works in and the amount goes down. While GFS can get crazy with precip amounts, I want to make sure everyone is aware of what COULD happen. Some areas in this zone could see 6 to 8 inches.

Tuesday - 12AM
Gusty winds will be common over much of the state...25 to 40 mph with higher gusts. Precip rates remain high with generally half inch to a full inch in most areas. Some spotty areas in North Central and South Central OK could see over an inch. Surface temps will show a tight gradient across the state. Near 60 around Ardmore to low 30s just Northwest of I-44. The I-44 corridor looks like it will be in the upper 30s at this time. Upper air temps aren't as uniform. All of western OK is below freezing, most of Northern OK is as well. Areas along the I-44 corridor will be anywhere from just above freezing (around Tulsa to OKC) to several degrees above near Lawton and Wichita Falls. Snowfall forecast is a bit trickier here. Western 1/3rd of OK looks like a general 3 to 6 inches of snow during this period. About the same in Northern OK but there is that pocket of heavier precip which would dump 6 to 10 inches. Around the OKC area I wouldn't be shocked to see some snow mix in, but very little in any accumulation.

Tuesday - 6AM
Winds will start up for the next 24 hours in the 20-30 mph range, so won't keep repeating that. Surface temps will be near or below freezing North of I-44, low to mid 30s along and just south of I-44. Well above freezing Southeast. Upper air temps will be below freezing roughly just west of I-35. Some warm up could be pulled up into NE OK which will push them all rain during this period. Storm system is forecast to be right over South Central OK, so if the track goes just a bit south...the snow line moves south. Precip rates are definitely decreasing here. Moderate rain of around a half inch of rain in the eastern half of the state. West of I-35 a heavier band in NW to NC OK. Light amounts back to the SW. South Central looks like it gets dry slotted. Snowfall amounts looks like 1 to 3 inches SW and 3 to 5 inches in the heavier band.

Tuesday - 12PM
System is moving out Surface temps will be just around freezing in OKC at this time and below freezing for much of Western OK. Upper air temps support all snow for much of Western and Northern OK. South Central into NE will be just around or above freezing. Wrap around moisture will continue. Look for less than an inch of snow for far Western, SW and SC OK. OKC metro area look for around an inch of snow. From Woodward to north of Ponca City look for another 2 to 4 inches of snow, with isolated amounts up to 6 inches.

Tuesday - 6PM
Most of the precip is done. Some light rain/snow mix in the eastern parts of OK. No additional accumulations.

So adding them all up, you can see someone could get a dumping of snow. However, we are still several days out and things can change. If the system tracks more north it'll all be rain. If it goes further south a bit more snow for areas that would be mostly rain during this. We'll see what happens.

Longer Term Highlights...
- Cold arctic air will dump into the country after Christmas. Could have below freezing temps for much of the country except for the West Coast, Deep South, and the far East Coast.
- Next potential for accumulating snow for Oklahoma is Dec 26th

[venture]

So obviously some changes to the GFS this morning, but to give perspective...the last dozen or so model runs for the surface low position at Midnight Tuesday morning looks like this...


06Z 12/13 - No surface system from any earlier run through this run.
12Z 12/13 - Low over Central OK
18Z 12/13 - Low over NE OK
00Z 12/14 - Low over W TN or E AR
06Z 12/14 - Low over NE TX
12Z 12/14 - Low over NE TX
18Z 12/14 - Low over NE TX
00Z 12/15 - Low over North Central TX
06Z 12/15 - Low over NE OK
12Z 12/15 - Low over NE OK

So we had roughly 4 pretty consistent runs of the surface low in the same spot, then things snapped back to the results from the 18Z run on 12/13. So take that curve ball with the fact this system didn't even exist in the model forecast more than 2 days ago can show that things are still not set in stone.

[Bunty]

The GFS model shows the heaviest precipitation next week to run down I-44 from Tulsa to Lawton with 2 or 3 in. rain:

[venture]

The GFS model shows the heaviest precipitation next week to run down I-44 from Tulsa to Lawton with 2 or 3 in. rain:

That is the 18Z run from yesterday, so it is almost a day old now. The new 18Z run should get under way here soon.

[sacolton]

I want a blizzard! (I'll be off work for 2 weeks.) :-)

[OKCisOK4me]

I want a blizzard! (I'll be off work for 2 weeks.) :-)

But the rest of us won't so go fly somewhere where there's suppose to be a blizzard! ;-)

[Bunty]

I want a blizzard! (I'll be off work for 2 weeks.) :-)

If you were around here during the Christmas Eve Blizzard of 2009, then you've already been treated to a blizzard.

[bluedogok]

I want a blizzard! (I'll be off work for 2 weeks.) :-)

Please no, my wife and I will be flying into OKC on Friday (me), Saturday (her) and out on Monday. We might have a little in Denver but DIA can handle that pretty well, my wife is flying out of Midland but I don't think they have any chance of that kind of weather.

[ou48A]

If you were around here during the Christmas Eve Blizzard of 2009, then you've already been treated to a blizzard.

That may have been bad for around here but as blizzards go that was a pretty light weight blizzard and we were poorly prepared to clear the streets.

[ZYX2]

Please no, my wife and I will be flying into OKC on Friday (me), Saturday (her) and out on Monday. We might have a little in Denver but DIA can handle that pretty well, my wife is flying out of Midland but I don't think they have any chance of that kind of weather.

Last February was twice as bad up here in Tulsa.

[venture]

Updated 12Z Snowfall forecast...GFS bounced way north yesterday and is trending south again now. Probably going to need to wait until tomorrow evening to get a good idea of how this will play out.

[Bunty]

Here's a special weather statement:

Message summary: ...a strong winter storm to bring accumulating snow to parts of oklahoma monday night and tuesday...
A strong storm system over the baja of california saturday morning will begin to move east across arizona and new mexico on sunday. The storm is then expected to move out into the southern plains late monday and monday night. As this storm approaches...south winds will increase and transport gulf moisture northward over the area. While to the north... Much colder air across the northern rockies will begin to surge south into oklahoma and north texas. Widespread rain and a few thunderstorms are forecast to develop across oklahoma and north texas during the day on monday. As the cold air spills south...the rain will change over to snow monday night across portions of western and northern oklahoma. The snow will then spread east across northern and parts of central oklahoma tuesday morning before ending.

Although the storm system is still a few days away and the exact forecast timing and track can change...it does appear that there is a reasonable potential for accumulating snow across the northwest third of oklahoma monday night and tuesday. Locations north and west of a line from cheyenne to cherokee could see snowfall amounts exceeding 4 inches with lighter amounts farther south and east. Some accumulations are possible as far south as perry...watonga and hollis. Strong north winds will accompany the snow...create blowing and drifting along with low wind chills. Stay up to date with the latest forecast regarding this upcoming winter storm. Continue to monitor the nws norman website...noaa weather radio...or other tv...radio...or cable channels for the latest statements...watches...or warnings that may be issued in the coming days.

FROM: http://stillwaterweather.com/advisor...one=OKZ020#WL1