Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2011

[MDot]

Should have mentioned I am in Denver

So is my Uncle.

[bluedogok]

Should have mentioned I am in Denver

There are quite a few of us up here now...and it is snowing again. I like it, especially after the lack of any season other than summer in Austin for 8 years.

[venture]

Should have mentioned I am in Denver

Should I recommend perhaps Houston then? :-P

If I move to an area I look at all quality of life items, not just the job offered. I probably would never take a job in Florida or any other warm climate area. I like my seasons. That also is why I might look at an offer to move out of Oklahoma, but I also like my crazy Springs. Just don't care much for the hot summers, but they have AC for that. :-)

[bluedogok]

Just don't care much for the hot summers, but they have AC for that. :-)

After the past few extended summers in Austin even my Texas native wife was sick enough of it to the point of moving up here. The reaction from everyone down there that we have told we were moving to Denver was the same thing, almost everyone has a relative up here or wants to move here.

[BG918]

Rain spreading into the state next week. No Arctic blast on tap...yet. Want to take a stab at a long-range forecast Venture? Maybe the GFS won't be so completely wrong this time..

[venture]

Rain spreading into the state next week. No Arctic blast on tap...yet. Want to take a stab at a long-range forecast Venture? Maybe the GFS won't be so completely wrong this time..

Such is the nature of the beast with long range forecasts. The 06Z GFS definitely was aggressive with snowfall with almost 66% of the lower 48 having snow on the ground for Christmas day. Not buying it yet. I want to see about 4 consistent runs before really touching it. There is *some* indication over the last few runs of a system around the 18th through 24th going from the Southwest/Southern Plains up through the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. However there is a difference in the tracks of around 300-500 miles North to South on a run to run basis. So we'll see what happens with that as we get closer.

Closer in time, next Wednesday looks like there is a good chance for heavy rain and thunderstorms. Severe risk looks like, but there are some indications we could see a few severe storms in the state. Hey, it is Oklahoma...when are we expected to follow normal seasons. LOL

[Roadhawg]

Should I recommend perhaps Houston then? :-P

If I move to an area I look at all quality of life items, not just the job offered. I probably would never take a job in Florida or any other warm climate area. I like my seasons. That also is why I might look at an offer to move out of Oklahoma, but I also like my crazy Springs. Just don't care much for the hot summers, but they have AC for that. :-)

I may have an offer in North Carolina less than an hour away from the ocean and on an inner bank.

[venture]

I may have an offer in North Carolina less than an hour away from the ocean and on an inner bank.

That sounds neat. North Carolina is one of the states I wouldn't mind relocating to. They seem to get pretty much every variation of weather including a bigger impact from the tropics. Of course I'm just weird like that.

[Roadhawg]

That sounds neat. North Carolina is one of the states I wouldn't mind relocating to. They seem to get pretty much every variation of weather including a bigger impact from the tropics. Of course I'm just weird like that.

Me too.... much better area for my motorcycle riding and can take the jeep to the beach

[venture]

Haha sounds nice. I also miss trees and some variation to the landscape too.

[OKCisOK4me]

Venture, check your personal messages

[venture]

Looking forward from Oklahoma into the longer ranged, it appears there will be a chance for some heavy rain and also winter precip. This outlook takes us through Christmas.

Saturday (10th) through Monday (12th) - Appears to be mostly dry and cool. Maybe some light fog in the morning out west, but otherwise nothing major. Could have some freezing fog in the morning again in areas that are able to drop below freezing. Don't see any major issues though. Into Monday a surge of seasonably warmer air will keep overnight temps above freezing and start setting up a warm up ahead of the next system.

Tuesday (13th) - Light rain will develop across Western and also Northern Oklahoma...generally North of I-44 from MO border to OKC. Then north of I-40 from OKC to TX border. Temps will be well above freezing into the 40s and 50s, so no winter precip. Amounts generally light of a half inch or less.

Wednesday (14th) - Greater chance of moderate and heavy rain in areas of the state. Most likely areas appear to be Central and East. Thunderstorms also appear probably with a very low risk of severe weather. Rainfall rates under storms could generate over an inch of rainfall. The focuses areas will be along a warm front in Northern OK and also ahead of the Cold Front generally east of I-35.

Thursday (15th) - Temps cool back down behind the system. Some wrap around moisture will be most likely in Northern Oklahoma which could produce some light snow and very limited accumulations (wet and warm ground will promote melting).

Friday (16th) - Colder modified air mass will begin to push well into the Lower 48. Temps will fall through most of the time.

Saturday (17th) - Moisture will be returning from the south. Surface temps are only expected to get into the mid 30s while upper air temps will be near or just above freezing. Most of the moisture appears to be limited to the areas south of I-40. Some locations could see up to a half inch or more of precip in those areas. If upper levels are cooled off a little, this could fall in the form of snow. Right now, will go for mostly rain with a rain/snow mix the closer to I-40 you get.

Sunday (18th) - Moderate precip is still possible in Southern Oklahoma. Right now it appears upper levels will warm more so everything should go to rain. Precip will slowly expand northward through late in the day, but amounts will be light in those areas.

Monday (19th) - Moderate to Heavy rain will form in Northwest and the Eastern Half of Oklahoma. This will continue through most of the day. Lower amounts Southwest OK of around a half inch or less. Other areas could see 1 to 3 inches of rain. The storm system will get stronger over Oklahoma and start to pull colder air down on the back side (while causing a significant snow event just north of OK). Most of the precip will get dryslotted out by very late Monday, but areas of Northwest OK could see a couple inches of snow before it ends.

Tuesday (20th) - Dry and cool. Maybe some flurries up north.

Wednesday (21st) - New storm system forms south of Texas. Far southern OK could see some moisture late. SW OK could see a light snow accumulation. SE OK will be a rain/snow mix.

Thursday (22nd) - Upper air temps will be below freezing across all of Oklahoma. Surface temps will be below freezing roughly I-35 back to the west. This will setup for a widespread light snow accumulation across the state. Amounts will increase going from Northwest to the Southeast. Far NW OK may only see roughly an inch. Central 1/3rd of OK could see 1 to 2 inches. Southeast third could see 3 to 6 inches of snow, unless rain or sleet mixes in which will lower amounts.

Friday (23rd) - No real warm ups from here on out it appears. Upper levels will stay below freezing. Looks mostly dry with maybe some flurries around.

Saturday / Christmas Eve (24th) - Very fast moving energy will be light snow over the area. General an inch or less right now.

Sunday / Christmas Day (25th) - Dry and cold.

Monday (26th) - Dry and cool. Maybe some precip coming in later as a Clipper system is going to be dropping south. It may not make it this far south though.

Remember, extended forecasts can and often will change several times. This is just a snap shot of what models think right now.

[PennyQuilts]

Thanks, Venture. It may be cold and nasty but I sure am glad we busted out of the drought.

[Achilleslastand]

Thanks, Venture. It may be cold and nasty but I sure am glad we busted out of the drought.

Im pretty sure we are not technically out of the drought. At least not yet.

[bluedogok]

My travel days for the holiday are DEN-OKC on the 23rd and OKC-DEN on the 26th, looks like it might not be too bad. Some very light snow flurries possible leaving on Friday.

[PennyQuilts]

Im pretty sure we are not technically out of the drought. At least not yet.

I meant the drought pattern. I'm pretty sure, around here, we are out of the no rain for weeks and months even if we haven't caught up on the water tables. We've been getting rain every week or so. My farm pond is as full as I've seen it and the creeks that crisscross our land west of Mustang are in fine shape.

[venture]

Drought conditions have definitely improved, but still on the cusp of going back in quickly. We have a La Nina pattern right now and can quickly go back into severe drought conditions. The outlook for winter is below average precip so we just have to take what we can get.

[mugofbeer]

After the past few extended summers in Austin even my Texas native wife was sick enough of it to the point of moving up here. The reaction from everyone down there that we have told we were moving to Denver was the same thing, almost everyone has a relative up here or wants to move here.

Don't get me wrong, I love living in Denver. The winters aren't nearly as bad as I expected them to be. When we got here, we wondered why lot sizes are small and driveways are short. Now we know its so you dont have to shovel 100 feet of driveway.

[venture]

Wednesday still has a low risk of severe weather. Will need to just keep a heads up on it. Conditions that are forecast for Wednesday indicate main threats would be damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.

[Roadhawg]

Sheeesh... threat of tornado's in the middle of December.

[sacolton]

Snownado!

[Roadhawg]

Snownado!

Sounds like a bad sci-fi movie

[sacolton]

Hey, Venture ... what's the latest for next week? How about some snow?

[BG918]

The system approaching Oklahoma next week bears watching closely. Right now looking like a cold rain with a chance of snow mid-week if it's cold enough.

[Easy180]

Accuweather shows us as snowless thru Christmas