Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2011

[Thunder]

Ya know I'm mad at myself for spending 15 seconds out of my life trying to figure that out.

Many retailers moved Black Friday to start on Thanksgiving this year.

[venture]

Many retailers moved Black Friday to start on Thanksgiving this year.

I've only heard of one...most still open at Midnight or later - which is Friday. Anyway. It means nothing about the weather so moving on.

[MDot]

I hope the rain stays away until after the 11 AM OU- ISU game on 11/26/11

This is totally off base and not weather related but OMG why'd they make it 11? Last I seen it was at 8 but I think that was before they set an actual starting time.

[ou48A]

This is totally off base and not weather related but OMG why'd they make it 11? Last I seen it was at 8 but I think that was before they set an actual starting time.

OU has played so many night games this year that fans, players and administrators were starting to complain. OU worked a deal with the TV folks so they could change the time. For some of the road night games OU wasn’t getting back to Norman until 4 am. It’s also not a great idea to play at night in late November because of cold and the threat of ice or snow. But I’m well quipped and will be there regardless of the weather. But I would rather be comfortable.

[ou48A]

This morning's model run keeps us dry...so we'll just wait and see what happens as we get closer.

One thing that is on track is the first week of December being cold in most areas. While longer range GFS is highly inaccurate most times, it still gives us an idea of what might happen. Highs on December 2nd for example is now shown to not get out of the upper 20s for Central OK.

Thanks..... It sounds like Dec 3 could be very cold in Stillwater?

[MDot]

OU has played so many night games this year that fans, players and administrators were starting to complain. OU worked a deal with the TV folks so they could change the time. For some of the road night games OU wasn’t getting back to Norman until 4 am. It’s also not a great idea to play at night in late November because of cold and the threat of ice or snow. But I’m well quipped and will be there regardless of the weather. But I would rather be comfortable.

Well that makes sense. I guess it's a good decision to play it early instead of late.

[OKCisOK4me]

Well that makes sense. I guess it's a good decision to play it early instead of late.

Why this is in the weather thread I have no.clue but first off, OU fans would have nothing to do with the game time decision. Its at OSU first off so they can deal with whatever time the game is to be played at. Second off, its on December 3rd this year.

[MDot]

Why this is in the weather thread I have no.clue but first off, OU fans would have nothing to do with the game time decision. Its at OSU first off so they can deal with whatever time the game is to be played at. Second off, its on December 3rd this year.

You responded to the wrong comment brotha. Lol

[Uncle Slayton]

... no winter precip as it looks now.

C'mon, V, dial me up some snow, sleet, even freezing rain.

[venture]

C'mon, V, dial me up some snow, sleet, even freezing rain.

Trying. LOL Just nothing showing up consistently yet.

As far as the first part of this week. Looks like the heavy rain will be confined to eastern Oklahoma. Half inch or less west, up to an inch Central (maybe more in isolated downpours) and 2+ east.

[venture]

Rainfall forecast for tomorrow looks on target. It is pretty cool out there tonight, but upper levels are well above freezing. Don't expect any frozen/mixed precip even though we are in the 30s.

[venture]

Full run of the GFS still coming in. Late next weekend/early next week looks extremely interesting from the Great Lakes through the Southeast. Will post full thoughts when the run is done. This could have major impacts on the end of the Holiday travel weekend.

[blangtang]

I don't usually watch the late local news, but channel 4 after the game had their predictor whatever thingy saying okc metro would get 1.8 inches in the next 36 hours or so. it showed much more rainfall than that in the SE part of the state. any ideas if this is extreme?

[venture]

Depends on which you go with.

NAM: West - 0.50" or less, Central - 0.50" to 1.00", East - 1.00 to 2.25" (highest Northeast)
GFS: West & North - 0.25" or less, Central 0.50" to 2.25", East - 2.00" to 3.50" (highest East Central & Southeast)

The GFS pulls a little finger of higher precip back through like Tulsa and the north sides of the OKC metro area. Most of the precip bands are aligned on a Northeast to Southwest type diagonal line, but the estimates above tend to cover it. Highest values then to be in the southern/eastern areas of each region. Lowest values north and west.

I would say take the average and of the two and that gives a good idea of what we could expect.

[Roadhawg]

Guess I better get my laundry off the line at lunch time lol

[venture]

Slight Risk of severe weather today. The risk area is south of I-44 from the OK/MO border to OKC and south of I-40 from OKC to the TX border. Large hail is the threat in this area.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST MON NOV 21 2011

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX/OK/AR/LA...

...NORTH TX/SOUTHERN OK...
A PAIR OF POWERFUL UPPER SYSTEMS IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES...AND WILL AFFECT PARTS OF TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE PRIMARY SYSTEM FOR FOCUSING THE
SEVERE THREAT IS A SUB-TROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHWEST TX. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST TX NEAR LBB. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT
AND TRANSPORT OF ELEVATED MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARD INTO REGION
WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED EXPANSION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THESE STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT CAPE ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES...COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUGGEST A RISK OF A
FEW INTENSE UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. THIS THREAT WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH TX.

[venture]

First snowfall of the season on the way? Perhaps. The image below is for Monday December 5th at 6AM. This would have 3 to 6 inches of snow over most of Oklahoma. 1-3 inches in the North. Around 6 inches along the Red River. What to take from this? The chance for accumulating snow is there, but amounts shouldn't be worried about right now. Let it get a couple days out to really start focusing on them. However, soil temps are still in the 50s. Snowfall rates would have to be decent to overcome melting.

Regardless, the outbreak of cold weather that has been mentioned...is on the way for December.

[ZYX2]

Awesome, I hope it happens. I can't wait to see a little snow. I'm all for having snow consistently throughout the winter.

Come on Old Man Winter!

[Uncle Slayton]

Hopefully it will materialize. Were I in charge of the weather, today would be the hottest it got between September 21 and April 15th, the sun would be reduced to about one day a month, then only in partial clouds, and the rest of the days divided up between sleet and heavy snow.

Bring it on.

[kevinpate]

Some of y'all need professional help. Give me two days of snow, preferably 12/25-26, and I'm good for the winter. I don't hate it, it just gets in the way the rest of the time.

[venture]

A snow storm is different than a nice general/occasional snow that keeps a good blanket on the ground. Keeps things brighter and not so depressing looking.

[venture]

Snowfall forecast for next Saturday into Sunday morning.

[ou48A]

From what I can guess it now sounds like rain in Stillwater Saturday night….. but if the storm moves in faster than currently forecast we could see the frozen stuff.

Thoughts on this please.

[BG918]

It will be interesting to watch this system as it gets closer to Oklahoma. With the temps. forecast it could be a steady rain Sat. afternoon turning to a wet snow in some parts of Oklahoma that evening and overnight. Definitely a lot of interest with the big game in Stillwater where that could occur...it all depends on timing and how cold it will actually be. Cold rain appears to be a certainty though with the game beginning at 7 pm.

[Roadhawg]

Either way I'll be all warm and safe in front of my TV watching the game