2011 Season - Bowl Outlook

[venture]

This is going to be a bit different than the BCS thread. This is to cover all the various bowl games - all 35 - and how the conferences are looking at filling their spots. First, bowl eligibility for the Big 12.

Conference - Tie Ins

Big 12 - Fiesta (1st), Alamo (3rd), Holiday (5th), Pinstripe (7th), Insight (4th), Meineke Texas (6th), Cotton (2nd)

Bowl Eligible: Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Baylor, and Texas.
Bubble Teams: Missouri, Texas A&M, Iowa State, and Texas Tech.
Staying Home: Kansas

So we have 5 teams already eligible with 7 slots to fill. However, we are likely to have either Oklahoma State or OU in the BCS title game as long as both win out until Bedlam. That means we'll have an extra bowl slot. It also means that the Fiesta bowl would end up not getting the Big 12 champion, but would likely take the next best team since they have the 1st pick.

So it could look like this:
BCS Title: OSU or OU
Fiesta: OSU or OU
Cotton: Kansas State
Alamo: Baylor
Insight: Texas

So we have Holiday, Meineke Texas, and the Pinstripe bowl left. Let's look at the bubble teams.

Missouri has TTU and Kansas left. They will likely get bowl eligible unless something goes very wrong against Kansas.

Texas A&M has Kansas this week so they will likely get bowl eligible. The finish against Texas which could go either way.

Iowa State is screwed unless they get a major upset win. They have OSU, OU and KSU left. All in the Top 17. It really stinks for them, but I'm saying they get to stay home.

Texas Tech has Missouri and Baylor left. This team has just failed in Big 12 play. The OU win was just a fluke of Oklahoma giving up and handing it over. Their only Big 12 win outside of the shock in Norman is at Kansas...by 1 freaking point. This is a terrible team that has just died. I say they lose out and stay home.

So that gives us Mizzou and TAMU. Uh oh. 3 bowl spots left. I'm not sure if Missouri would go to Holiday as TAMU might travel more. However, TAMU may not mind playing a home game in Houston.

Pinstripe would go unfilled by the Big 12 unless something happens to keep a Big 12 team out of the BCS Title Game. We'll probably see it filled by other conferences like the MAC which have an abundance of bowl eligible teams compared to the number of tie ins they have.

[Thunder]

Mr. V, I love how you put in the time and energy keeping us informed, advised, and forewarned!

[Native Okie]

/espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/7248953/bcs-proposes-only-handling-national-championship-game-sources-say

This article by espn may change the conference realignment trend we now see. By eliminating automatic qualification with conferences. I see the bowls losing power and influence.

[venture]

The Cotton Bowl said yesterday that they if Texas doesn't beat KSU, they would not be an option to pick. The Cotton Bowl has the overall 2nd pick in the Big 12, and really I would be shocked if they would pick a weak Texas team to go against a strong SEC team.

Either OU or OSU will likely end up here unless we see a shake up in the BCS.

[Thunder]

This scares me a lot with the picking.

[Hawk405359]

You keep saying that stuff is cheating. I don't think you know what cheating actually is.

Only the BCS championship go by ranks alone. Every other bowl has contractual tie ins with conferences. If those tie ins cannot be met for whatever reason (such as the eligible teams being in the BCS championship) then they select their teams from the remaining eligible teams. When it says the Cotton Bowl, for example, gets 2nd pick in the Big 12, they don't mean the #2 team in the Big 12, they mean they get to pick from the available teams second. Usually, that means the highest ranked non-BCS team available that has not been picked ahead, because the bowls want the highest profile games. But that's how the bowls are, the organizers select from the available teams in the order they're contractually allowed too.

[Thunder]

If OU doesn't get into the NC, then we wouldn't know what bowl to play until someone pick OU?

[Hawk405359]

Not necessarily. If the Big 12 champion isn't in the BCS title game, they're contractually bound to the Fiesta Bowl, IIRC against an at large team. However, if the Big 12 champ is in the title game, the Fiesta Bowl gets the pick of the at large teams.

That's how Boise ended up playing TCU in the Fiesta Bowl in 2010. Texas went to the NC game and no other Big 12 team made a BCS bowl. So the Fiesta had to pick a replacement (TCU). The bowl, IIRC, pairs Big 12 champion with BCS at large, so when time came around to pick again, the Big 12 was taken, so they picked Boise to have a battle of the unbeatens, much to the chagrin of the country who thought the BCS paired them up so Boise wouldn't beat another major program.

[venture]

I think as long as there is another Big 12 team in the Top 12 of the BCS or whatever, they'll take them over 2 random at-large teams. The sad thing now...is how we have a chance to go to another stupid 3-way tie in the Big 12. However now it doesn't just leave 1 team out of the Big 12 championship game (since it is gone) it has the possibility to leave two equally qualified teams out of the BCS bowl.

So what we have now looking at the Top 3 schools.
OSU is 7-1 and plays Oklahoma
OU is 5-2 and plays ISU and OSU
KSU is 6-2 and plays ISU

The dooms day scenario is OU winning out going 7-2. OSU goes 7-2. KSU wins out and goes 7-2.
I believe we still have the same tie breaker where the lowest BCS ranked team is dropped and then it goes head to head. So in this scenario we have OSU probably falling to 10 to 15. OU would probably go back up to around 9 to 12, and KSU will round up somewhere in 10 to 15. All three schools are going to be so tightly ranked it is will be crazy. OU though would have a late quality win to bump them up in the BCS that should go ahead of KSU and OSU. This would send them to the Fiesta. However, it probably won't matter since OU would have won the head to head against both of them and would get the bid. I also think that even though OU wins the head to head against them, they all have the same record so they all share the Big 12 title for the year.

The other scenarios are much easier. OSU wins, case closed they go to Fiesta and have the crown for themselves. Congrats...don't get use to it. LOL KSU wins out, but OU loses to ISU and beats OSU...OSU goes to the Fiesta and wins the title since they beat KSU in head to head.

So really looking at it...OSU has already locked up a share of the Big 12 title at least. I would also say they are favorites right now for the Fiesta bid.

[Hawk405359]

If I'm reading it correctly (there's always a chance I'm not), the Big 12's tie breaker if 3 teams have the same in-conference record goes as follows, according to their website.

1. Total Record of the teams compared to each other
2. Total Record compared to the next-highest ranked team in the conference
3a. The higher ranked team in the first post-regular season BCS gets the automatic bid unless two teams are ranked within one of each other.
3b. Then it moves to the head-to-head of the two highest ranked teams
4. Random Draw determines the berth

Now, here's my problem with how it's written. I can read #1 in two ways. First, total record of the teams total, including non-conference. Second, the total records of the 3 teams vs. each other.

If it's the latter, none of the others matter. K-State would be eliminated, having lost to OU and Ok. State, so the winner of Bedlam gets it. If it's the former, it gets a lot more complicated.
Thing is, I don't think K-State has any chance of getting the automatic berth, even if OU loses out. Mathematically, they can't make it up. Kansas State would be a spoiler to OU, if OU won Bedlam. So if K.State and OU win out, we'd have a 3-way tie between K. State, OU, and Ok. State at the top. The first tie-breaker wouldn't eliminate anyone, so we'd move on to the second, record vs. the next highest ranked team. This is where it gets trickier, as it depends on the rest of the conference

Baylor wins out (vs. Texas Tech and Texas): Baylor is currently number 4 in the conference. K-State and Ok. State both beat Baylor, while OU lost. So OU would be eliminated and it'd go head to head between K-State and Ok. State. Ok. State would get the bid.

Texas wins out (vs. Texas A&M and Baylor): They'd have the same in-conference record as Baylor and Missouri, but would have a better out of conference record. In that case, I believe Texas would be 4th, and there would be no tie-breaker there, as all three teams beat Texas. So it would thus move on to the next tie breaker, which relies on BCS record. That'd favor OU.

Iowa State wins out (Oklahoma and Kansas State): Ok. State gets the bid regardless of what happens at Bedlam

Texas A&M wins out (vs. Texas): Baylor likely keeps their #4 spot, putting Ok. State in the Fiesta Bowl if OU and K.State win out. However, if A&M wins and Baylor loses out, it'd be likely that number 4 in the conference would solely belong to Missouri (who only has Kansas to beat and who beat Texas A&M, who they would have the same record as). If that happens, it'd go to BCS.

[venture]

Arkansas State has accepted a bid to the GoDaddy.com Bowl (formerly GMAC Bowl) in Mobile on January 8th. They'll face off against a MAC team.

[Roadhawg]

The way the Huskers played yesterday they might get in the toilet bowl

[venture]

Before I get into where teams may end up. Here is the complete bowl line up. List is from CBS...


BCS NCG - Jan. 9 - New Orleans, LA - 8:30PM ESPN - BCS #1 vs. BCS #2
Orange Bowl - Jan. 4 - Miami, FL - 8:00PM ESPN - ACC Champ vs. At-Large
Sugar Bowl - Jan. 3 - New Orleans, LA - 8:30PM ESPN - SEC Champ vs. At-Large
Fiesta Bowl - Jan. 2 - Glendale, AZ - 8:30PM ESPN - Big 12 Champ vs. At-Large
Rose Bowl - Jan. 2 - Pasadena, CA - 5:00PM ESPN - Big Ten Champ vs. PAC 12 Champ

Other Bowls
GoDaddy.com - Jan. 8 - Mobile, Ala. - 9 p.m. - MAC No. 1 vs. Sun Belt No. 2
BBVA Compass - Jan. 7 - Birmingham, Ala. - 1 p.m. - SEC No. 8/9 vs. Big East No. 5/C-USA
Cotton - Jan. 6 - Arlington, Tex. - 8 p.m. - Big 12 No. 2 vs. SEC
Outback - Jan. 2 - Tampa, Fla. - 1 p.m. - Big Ten No. 3 vs. SEC
Gator Jan. 2 - Jacksonville, Fla. 1 p.m. - Big Ten No. 4/5 vs. SEC
Capital One - Jan. 2 - Orlando, Fla. - 1 p.m. - Big Ten No. 2 vs. SEC
TicketCity - Jan. 2 - Dallas, Tex. - Noon Big Ten No. 7 vs. C-USA
Chick-fil-A - Dec. 31 - Atlanta, Ga. - 7:30 p.m. ACC No. 2 vs. SEC No. 5
Liberty - Dec. 31 Memphis, Tenn. - 3:30 p.m. - C-USA No. 1 vs. Big East/SEC No. 8/9
Kraft Fight Hunger - Dec. 31 - San Francisco, Calif. - 3:30 p.m. - Pac-12 No. 6 vs. Army*
Sun - Dec. 31 - El Paso, Tex. - 2 p.m. - ACC No. 4 vs. Pac-12 No. 4
Meineke Car Care of Texas - Dec. 31 - Houston, Tex. - Noon - Big 12 No. 6 vs. Big Ten No. 6
Insight - Dec. 30 - Tempe, Ariz. - 10 p.m. - Big 12 No. 4 vs. Big Ten No. 4/5
Music City - Dec. 30 - Nashville, Tenn. - 6:40 p.m. - ACC No. 6 vs. SEC No. 7
Pinstripe - Dec. 30 - New York, N.Y. - 3:20 p.m. - Big 12 No. 7 vs. Big East No. 4
Armed Forces - Dec. 30 - Dallas, Tex. - Noon - BYU* vs. C-USA
Alamo - Dec. 29 - San Antonio, Tex. - 9 p.m. - Big 12 No. 3 vs. Pac-12 No. 2
Champs Sports - Dec. 29 - Orlando, Fla. - 5:30 p.m. - Big East No. 2 vs. ACC No. 3
Holiday - Dec. 28 - San Diego, Calif. - 8 p.m. - Pac-12 No. 3 vs. Big 12 No. 5
Military - Dec. 28 - Washington D.C. - 4:30 p.m. - ACC No. 8 vs. Navy*
Belk - Dec. 27 - Charlotte, N.C. - 8 p.m. - Big East No. 3 vs. ACC No. 5
Little Caesars - Dec. 27 - Detroit, Mich. - 4:30 p.m. - MAC No. 2 vs. Big Ten No. 8
Independence - Dec. 26 - Shreveport, La. 5 p.m. - MWC No. 3 vs. ACC No. 7
Hawaii - Dec. 24 - Honolulu, Hawaii - 8 p.m. - WAC vs. C-USA
Maaco - Dec. 22 Las Vegas - 8 p.m. - MWC No. 1 vs. Pac-12 No. 5
Poinsettia - Dec. 21 - San Diego, Calif. - 8 p.m. - MWC No. 2 vs. WAC
Beef O'Brady's - Dec. 20 - St. Petersburg, Fla. - 8 p.m. - Big East No. 6 vs. C-USA
New Orleans - Dec. 17 - New Orleans, La. - 9 p.m. - Sun Belt No. 1 vs. C-USA
Famous Idaho Potato - Dec. 17 - Boise, Idaho - 5:30 p.m. - MAC No. 3 vs. WAC
New Mexico - Dec. 17 - Albuqurque, N.M. - 2 p.m. - MWC No. 4/5 vs. Pac-12 No. 7/WAC

[venture]

Louisiana-Laf. accepted a bid to the New Orleans bowl.

[MDot]

Well, go Louisiana-Lafayette...

[venture]

BYU accepted Armed Forces invite and Louisiana Tech to Poinsettia.

Bowl Eligible Numbers look like this...

Big 12...7 tie ins - 8 out of 10 (TTU and KU stay home)
ACC...7 tie ins - 8 of 12 (BC, Maryland, and Duke not eligible and Miami DQ'd)
Big East...6 tie ins plus one shared with SEC - 4 of 8 with 3 potential additional teams. Syracuse or Pitt, UCONN (must beat Cincy), and USF (must beat WVU)
Big Ten...8 tie ins - 10 of 12 (Minnesota and Indiana staying home)
CUSA...6 tie ins - 5 of 12
Independents...3 ties in - 2 of 4 (Navy and Army stay home)
MAC...3 tie ins - 6 of 12 (EMU not eligible due to FCS team as one win)
MWC...4 tie ins - 5 of 8 (CSU, UNLV, NM stay home)
SEC...7 tie ins plus one shared with Big East - 9 of 12 (Kentucky, Tenn, Ole Miss stay home)
PAC...6 tie ins plus one shared with WAC - 8 of 12 (OSU, WSU, Arizona, and CU stay home)
WAC...3 tie ins plus one shared with PAC - 4 of 8 (SJSU, Fresno, NMST, and Idaho stay home)
Sun Belt...2 tie ins - 4 of 9

There are a total of 70 bowl slots available, including the 2 in the NCG. Right now we have 73 teams eligible and could go to 76 this weekend. Big East runs the risk of not filling its requirement. CUSA will be one short. Army and Navy will give up their tie ins. All other conferences will produce enough to fill their contracted tie ins.

[venture]

Invited/Accepted Bids...

GoDaddy.com - Northern Illinois (MAC) vs. Arkansas State (Sun Belt)
BBVA Compass -
Cotton -
Outback - Michigan State (Big Ten) vs. Georgia (SEC)
Gator - Ohio State vs. Florida
Capital One -
TicketCity - Penn State vs. Houston
Chick-fil-A -
Liberty -
Kraft Fight Hunger - TBA vs. Illinois
Sun -
Meineke Car Care of Texas - Texas A&M vs. Northwestern
Insight - OKLAHOMA vs. Iowa
Music City -
Pinstripe - Iowa State vs. Rutgers
Armed Forces - BYU vs. Tulsa
Alamo - Baylor vs. Washington
Champs Sports -
Holiday - California vs. Texas
Military - Air Force vs. TBA
Belk -
Little Caesars - Western Michigan vs. Purdue
Independence - Missouri vs. TBA
Hawaii - Nevada vs. Southern Miss
Maaco - Boise State vs. TBA
Poinsettia - TCU vs. La. Tech
Beef O'Brady's - Florida Int'l vs. TBA
New Orleans - La. Lafayette vs. TBA
Famous Idaho Potato - Ohio vs. Utah State
New Mexico -

[dmoor82]

OSU misses out on the NC game by .009%!Rematch of the SEC West #1 and #2!

[Roadhawg]

OSU misses out on the NC game by .009%!Rematch of the SEC West #1 and #2!

Hopefully this will finally get them to do a playoff... having two teams that already played each other is a bunch of BS

[dmoor82]

I hope OSU pounds whoever they play and end up with a 12 win season,which would be the first in school history to go along with the schools first outright Conference title and largest Bedlam win in the Pokes history!WOW,what a great season!

[MikeOKC]

All the fan polls on CBS Sports.com, FoxSports...I've seen four of them asking OSU or Alabama? All of them had OSU by almost 70%. This BCS is BS. I hate to sound conspiratorial, but everybody has been talking about how nobody really knows who votes in the Harris Poll unless they tell you. Too easy to put a fix in. If it had been LSU-OSU, it would have put Kansas State in the Fiesta and the BCS didn't want that. I mean, really, .009%? Please.

[dmoor82]

OU vs. Iowa,I dont know how I feel about that matchup just yet.The Sooners better prepare their asses off and take this bowl game seriously!

[dmoor82]

All the fan polls on CBS Sports.com, FoxSports...I've seen four of them asking OSU or Alabama? All of them had OSU by almost 70%. This BCS is BS. I hate to sound conspiratorial, but everybody has been talking about how nobody really knows who votes in the Harris Poll unless they tell you. Too easy to put a fix in. If it had been LSU-OSU, it would have put Kansas State in the Fiesta and the BCS didn't want that. I mean, really, .009%? Please.

I personaly think Bama is a better team,but they have already had their shot at LSU & lost and they didnt win their conference like OSU did so why not give the Pokes a chance?BullCrapSystem!

[Roadhawg]

"Anyone who doesn't win their conference has no business playing in the national championship game." - Nick Saban, 2003

[dmoor82]

^^Like OU in 03'(35-7 loss to KSU),The Sooners in no way should have been in that game vs. LSU,even if it was close!