Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2011

[Dustin]

The footage of the tornadoes captured by News 9 is incredible!!

[MDot]

The footage of the tornadoes captured by News 9 is incredible!!

I seen that. It was very incredible.

[Thunder]

[venture]

Will do a full outlook this weekend. Just a look ahead for possible snow right now.

- Tuesday Nov 22nd: Very light rain/snow in NW OK. Less than an inch.
- Wednesday Nov 23rd: Light snow in NW and North Central OK. An inch or less.

Might have a couple other days with mixed precip in there, but these are the main days for accumulating snow. As it looks right now.

[Thunder]

Congratulations Oklahoma! We just broke another record for the year! The tornado in Tipton was classified as EF4. The strongest November tornado on record! WTG!

[MDot]

Congratulations Oklahoma! We just broke another record for the year! The tornado in Tipton was classified as EF4. The strongest November tornado on record! WTG!

You say WTG while I say OMG! Lol

[bandnerd]

I'm sure they are all very excited.

[Thunder]

I'm surprised that V doesn't realize the additional record for the state. I wonder what December will bring. Maybe a Whitest Christmas Ever.

[OKCisOK4me]

I'm surprised that V doesn't realize the additional record for the state. I wonder what December will bring. Maybe a Whitest Christmas Ever.

Even though the earth beneath our feet is parched, I prefer the driest Xmas ever!

[Roadhawg]

Fun article on OK weather this year http://news.yahoo.com/want-weird-wea...154545994.html

[bandnerd]

Link doesn't work.

[Roadhawg]

Worked for me ?

[bandnerd]

We have very special internet at work sometimes!

[BG918]

Ready for some cold weather...anything headed our way in the long-range forecast?

[venture]

Well last night's GFS brought some hope for snow in about a week in most of Western Oklahoma (mainly an inch or less), but this morning it is gone. Around Thanksgiving highs could be held down into the 40s, but nothing major. Things look to be pretty reasonable temp wise. Only major precip chances for Central OK looks to be Sunday the 20th into the first part of Monday the 21st. Could have some stronger storms but no winter precip as it looks now.

[Roadhawg]

We have very special internet at work sometimes!

Know the feeling, we do too.

[venture]

Different format - a bit. We'll see how this looks. No snow in the forecast, but some notable drops in temps here and there. Also a potential wet period showing up for Oklahoma later in the forecast, although it will not cover all of the state for most of it.

Date -|- Highs -|- Lows -|- Weather -|- Est. Max Precip
Monday, Nov 14 - Highs: 58-75 - Lows: N/A || Slight East, Dry Elsewhere || 0.00 inches
Tuesday, Nov 15 - Highs: 53-75 - Lows: 40-65 || Mod/Hvy Rain Southeast, Dry Elsewhere || 1.00 to 2.00 inches
Wednesday, Nov 16 - Highs: 45-60 - Lows: 34-60 || Mostly dry, maybe a stray shower east. || 0.00 inches
Thursday, Nov 17 - Highs: 45-55 - Lows: 28-35 || Dry || 0.00 inches
Friday, Nov 18 - Highs: 55-60 - Lows: 38-45 || Dry || 0.00 inches
Saturday, Nov 19 - Highs: 60-75 - Lows: 50-60 || Dry || 0.00 inches
Sunday, Nov 20 - Highs: 45-75 - Lows: 45-65 || Rain East & Southeast, Slight Chance Elsewhere || 0.00 inches
Monday, Nov 21 - Highs: 45-65 - Lows: 40-65 || Scattered Light/Mod Rain || 0.10 to 0.40 inches
Tuesday, Nov 22 - Highs: 40-68 - Lows: 35-68 || Moderate Rain Most Areas || 0.20 to 0.75 inches
Wednesday, Nov 23 - Highs: 50-70 - Lows: 50-60 || Mod/Heavy Rain West Early then Central and East Late || 0.25 to 1.50 inches
Thursday, Nov 24 - Highs: 40-70 - Lows: 40-60 || Rain East, Slight Chance Central || 0.10 to 0.50 inches
Friday, Nov 25 - Highs: 50-65 - Lows: 35-60 || Slight chance East early. || 0.10 to 0.25 inches
Saturday, Nov 26 - Highs: 50-70 - Lows: 40-65 || Mod/Hvy Rain Southwest, Central, and East. || 0.50 to 1.25 inches
Sunday, Nov 27 - Highs: 45-55 - Lows: 30-55 || Mod/Hvy Rain Early East, Dry elsewhere || 1.00 to 2.50 inches
Monday, Nov 28 - Highs: 45-55 - Lows: 35-40 || Dry || 0.00 inches
Tuesday, Nov 29 - Highs: 30-40 - 25-35 || Dry || 0.00 inches

[venture]

Quick update on precip chances...

Sunday -- Very light rain in far eastern and SE OK.

Monday -- Rain expands in mostly Central and East and later out west. Focal point will be roughly just along and south of I-44 for most of the day. Rain amounts in this area will be 0.50 to 1.50" of rain, with isolated higher amounts. Elsewhere less than a half inch and lower as you go more NW.

Tuesday -- Rain starts to move out. Light to moderate rain in Southeast OK. There will also be rain in far Northern Oklahoma. Temps will be in the mid 30s there, but temps higher up will be well above freezing so everything should stay liquid. If colder air works down we could see some snow flakes, but it is looking highly unlikely.

More updates on the longer term forecast once the rest of the GFS run is in.

[venture]

Okay here is the long range forecast update...

I'mmmmmmmm dreaming.....of a white....thanksgivinnnnnnnnnggg...Okay well maybe not - on Thanksgiving. ;-)

I'll get to that here in a few. Here is the extended precip forecast going forward.

Friday Nov 25 - Slight chance of light rain in Southeast OK.

Saturday Nov 26 - Cold air I've been hinting at finally breaks a piece off and heads in. Upper level air temps will be well below free and stay below freeing most of Saturday. Light precip will move into Oklahoma early and linger. Liquid precip amounts will be light...less than 0.10" south of I-40, and up to 0.25" north of I-40. Rain will mix with snow over most of Oklahoma the way it looks now. The area that will have the highest probability of seeing all snow and a light dusting would be North Central and Northwest Oklahoma.

Sunday Nov 27th - Light snow will continue across Eastern Oklahoma. Lows will be around 30 and highs only in the mid to upper 30s. Don't expect much to stick, but enough in the air to get people in mood for the season. Look for very light accumulations of less than 0.10" liquid...or less than an Inch of snow.

Side note. This system will move out into the Ohio Valley and Lower Lakes and begin to transfer energy off the coast to form another Nor'easter. GFS isn't forecasting pulling the cold air down enough to keep everything all snow, but I would almost expect it to be except for right along the coast. So expect some areas to see 6-12 inches and isolated areas over a foot.

Thursday Dec 1 - Light rain possible in far Southern and Southeast Oklahoma. May see a couple snow flakes mixed in, but mostly just rain.

[Thunder]

I don't see how we can have a White Thanksgiving when we will already have a Black Thanksgiving.

[Roadhawg]

I don't see how we can have a White Thanksgiving when we will already have a Black Thanksgiving.

Ya know I'm mad at myself for spending 15 seconds out of my life trying to figure that out.

[MDot]

Ya know I'm mad at myself for spending 15 seconds out of my life trying to figure that out.

He's probably referring to Black Friday but only God knows what he means, I'm just taking a shot in the dark.

[ou48A]

I hope the rain stays away until after the 11 AM OU- ISU game on 11/26/11

[venture]

I hope the rain stays away until after the 11 AM OU- ISU game on 11/26/11

This morning's model run keeps us dry...so we'll just wait and see what happens as we get closer.

One thing that is on track is the first week of December being cold in most areas. While longer range GFS is highly inaccurate most times, it still gives us an idea of what might happen. Highs on December 2nd for example is now shown to not get out of the upper 20s for Central OK.

[sacolton]

So ... it's gonna be chilly willy?