Oklahoma Weather Discussion - November/December 2011

[jn1780]

We will be having tornadoes tomorrow. So, the question is what time and where? No one know! When you run for cover at the sound of a tornado siren and suddenly feel violent shakes.....it may be a tornado destroying your home or *gasps* an earthquake! Maybe both... This does not look good for Oklahoma.

Add in a nuclear reactor somewhere and you have the plot to a saturday night SYFY movie.

The Atomic Earthquake Tornado

[venture]

Line of storms starting to fill in a bit from just east of Purcell and Pauls Valley to the west of Ardmore and back to the SW into Northern Texas. Severe risk looks pretty low for now, could see some hail though. Main threat is still tomorrow.

[venture]

Decent risk of tornadoes on Monday, especially in SW OK. Some of them could be strong.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2011

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TODAY AS A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD INTO THE SRN
AND CNTRL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
SYSTEM...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY AS A PRONOUNCED
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING
ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET THIS MORNING WHERE A THREAT FOR
HAIL LIKELY EXISTING IN THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST TX AND SW
OK. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE SRN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
ACROSS WRN OK AND NW TX.

AS THE MORNING CONVECTION MOVES EWD LATE THIS MORNING...THE
STRONGEST SFC HEATING SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN ITS WAKE ON THE WRN SIDE
OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET FROM WRN OK SSWWD INTO THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON SUGGEST AN
AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE GRADUALLY INTO THE 45 TO 55 KT RANGE AS THE
EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET SPREADS NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AS STORMS
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT ARE LOCATED NEAR THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL FROM I-40 IN WRN OK SWD INTO NW TX WHERE A HATCHED THREAT FOR
HAIL IS INCLUDED. IN ADDITION...0-1 KM SHEAR OF 30-35 KT...STRONGLY
CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S F SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MORE
DOMINANT SUPERCELL STORMS. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO SUPPORT A STRONG
TORNADO OR TWO. A SMALL SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT AREA HAS BEEN
ADDED FROM NEAR CLINTON OK SWD TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS
TX.

AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...MODEL
FORECASTS DEVELOP A SQUALL-LINE EXTENDING FROM FAR SRN KS SSWWD INTO
NW TX SUGGESTING A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST. HOWEVER...THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON IF A NEARLY CONTINUES SQUALL-LINE CAN BECOME
WELL-ORGANIZED AND MOVE QUICKLY EWD. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS
DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE LINE THIS EVENING WITH THE GFS FASTER
AND MUCH FURTHER EAST. THIS SUGGESTS A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE
EWD INTO ECNTRL OK AND NORTH TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALTHOUGH
WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A MARGINALIZED THREAT BY LATE
EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 11/07/2011

[venture]

[silvergrove]

With all these storms firing up to the south of us, should that lessen the amount of energy in the atmosphere tomorrow for any supercells?

[Thunder]

With all these storms firing up to the south of us, should that lessen the amount of energy in the atmosphere tomorrow for any supercells?

No. Look at that recent updated graphic. LOL

[venture]

SPC has updated the risk outlook some. The slight risk was removed from most of Eastern OK for now. It now runs just west of a line from Bartlesville to Tulsa to Seminole to Ardmore. Nearly all of the OKC metro area is still included. There is also a good chance of tornadoes with the activity today, especially in Western OK. The counties with the highest risk appear to be Blaine, Dewey, Custer, Caddo, Kiowa, Comanche, Tillman, Jackson, Harmon, Greeg, Beckham, Wa****a, and Roger Mills. This area is under a 10% tornado risk and also a hatched significant risk area for a couple strong tornadoes. Elsewhere, for most of the risk area except for the eastern section, there is a 5% tornado risk for today as storms later tonight will still have the ability to produce a tornado.

Latest HRRR forecast shows storms forming in SW OK between 4 and 6PM. There is currently clearing taking place over SW OK as the morning storms continue to push into Northern OK.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST MON NOV 07 2011

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

CHANGES TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK:

1/ EXPAND LOW TORNADO/SVR WIND PROBABILITIES NEWD INTO ERN KS.
2/ NARROW WIDTH OF SVR RISKS BY TRIMMING ON WRN/ERN FRINGES.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THAT THE UPR LOW HAS TURNED E OVER AZ/NRN MEXICO
AND IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE ENE INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TONIGHT.
16Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A SFC LOW OVER THE WCNTRL TX WITH A FRONT
ENE INTO NWRN/NCNTRL OK AND SERN KS. CONSIDERABLE WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION WILL DRIVE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION/TSTMS POLEWARD OF THE
FRONT MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS MAY IMPEDE NWD TRANSLATION OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN NCNTRL OK AND ERN KS. A NWWD MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER...OVER THE SERN TX PNHDL AND WCNTRL OK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW DEVELOPS TOWARD SWRN OK LATER THIS AFTN.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY LWR-MID 60S SFC DEW
POINTS...HAVE BEEN TRANSPORTED NWWD TO THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE LINGERING CONCERNS FOR MITIGATED DESTABILIZATION FROM NCNTRL
OK INTO KS OWING TO CLOUDS/PCPN THIS AFTN...LATE MORNING VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING MOVING INTO W TX AND SWRN OK.
HERE...STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR WITH MLCAPES TO
2000-2500 J/KG BY LATE AFTN. FARTHER NE...500-1500 J/KG MLCAPES ARE
EXPECTED.

AS INCREASING ASCENT/ENHANCED MOISTENING/COOLING OF THE COLUMN
COMMENCES WITH APPROACH OF THE UPR TROUGH...WDLY SCTD TSTMS WILL
FORM NEAR A TRIPLE POINT/N EDGE OF STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE
TX PNHDL/WRN OK BORDER SWWD INTO THE SERN ROLLING PLAINS OF TX IN
THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50-55 KTS AND MAGNITUDE
OF MID-LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SUPERCELL STORM MODE WILL BE LIKELY
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. 0-1KM SRH VALUES WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL...250+
M2/S2...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ERN TX PNHDL/SE ROLLING PLAINS INTO
SWRN/WCNTRL OK /00-03Z/.

ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND...BOTH NE AND SW INTO ERN KS AND NW/WCNTRL TX
LATER THIS EVENING. INCREASING SLAB ASCENT SUGGESTS THAT A
TRANSITION CHIEFLY INTO A LINEAR MODE WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS
WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES INTO ERN KS...CNTRL
OK AND CNTRL/NCNTRL TX. DMGG WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST OF THE NIGHT.

..RACY/GARNER.. 11/07/2011

[MDot]

That makes me laugh for some reason when you try to spell wa****a but it censors most of it. Lol

[MDot]

I wonder if it censors Bangkok.

^^nope, apparently not.

[Thunder]

Mom's sister just moved back to Moore after 13 years in Florida last week. Such a welcoming with the earthquake then the tornadoes today. She said that there was never any direct hurricane impact where she lived the whole time. It will be interesting to see where these violent tornadoes will go.

[venture]

Things might be kicking off sooner than anticipated. A few stronger cells have started to go up along the OK/TX border.

Update: I'll be in the chat for most of the afternoon/evening now - http://www.storm-scope.com/chat.html

Also the storm in Bechkham county is getting stronger and may go severe here soon for hail.

[venture]

Special weather statement
national weather service norman ok
1225 pm cst mon nov 7 2011

okz014-021-071900-
roger mills ok-beckham ok-
1225 pm cst mon nov 7 2011

...significant weather advisory...

This significant weather advisory is for beckham and roger mills
counties.

At 1225 pm cst...a line of strong thunderstorms was located from
dempsey to 13 miles southwest of texola...moving northeast at 35 mph.

Hazards include...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 mph...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2288
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX/SERN TX PANHANDLE...SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 071827Z - 072000Z

PORTIONS OF NWRN TX/SERN TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN OK ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AND INCREASING SVR WEATHER
THREAT. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.

MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER W
TX...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO
FAR SERN KS. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT
N-NW INTO THE REGION...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. IN ADDITION...PARTIAL CLEARING OVER THE WARM SECTOR IS
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. THOUGH
PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS WELL W OF THE SRN PLAINS...VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD/CLOUD STREETS
WITH EMBEDDED TOWERING CUMULUS ARE DEEPENING OVER NWRN TX. THIS AREA
OF IMPLIED BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS JUXTAPOSED WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J PER KG/ AND AMPLE
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS THE PRESENCE OF WEAK MESOSCALE AND
BACKGROUND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...AS WELL AS 50+ KT SWLY FLOW
SPREADING ACROSS THE LINE OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING...WHICH MAY FAVOR A
DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE DURING THE INITIAL STAGES OF THIS
CONVECTIVE EVENT. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...AND
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /I.E. EFFECTIVE SRH
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR EXCEEDING 200 M2 S-2 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS SLY LLJ INCREASES TO 40 KT/...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..GARNER.. 11/07/2011

[venture]

Ww 870 tornado ok tx 071910z - 080300z
axis..60 statute miles east and west of line..
45nne csm/clinton ok/ - 75sse cds/childress tx/ ..aviation coords.. 50nm e/w /53wsw end - 57n abi/ hail surface and aloft..2.5 inches. Wind gusts..60 knots.
Max tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035.

Lat...lon 35939781 33419873 33410081 35939995

[venture]

WWUS20 KWNS 071913
SEL0
SPC WW 071913
OKZ000-TXZ000-080300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 870
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
110 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 110 PM UNTIL 900 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF CLINTON OKLAHOMA TO 75 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CHILDRESS TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...CUMULUS STREETS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN DEEPENING THIS AFTN AS WEAK ASCENT...TIED TO A LEAD MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EJECTS ENE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS PLENTIFUL LLVL MOISTURE STREAMS NWD BENEATH STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. NATURE OF ASCENT /WEAK-MODEST/ AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS LARGELY NORMAL TO INITIATING BOUNDARIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BOTH LINEAR AND DISCRETE CELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. LLVL SHEAR...WHILE SOMEWHAT MODEST AT MID-AFTN...WILL INCREASE AS PRIMARY UPR TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS APPROACHES THE REGION AND LLVL INCREASE RISK FOR TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...RACY

WWUS40 KWNS 071913
WWP0

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0870
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

WT 0870
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 70%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24035
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU0.

[venture]

Custer County and Harmon County have my interest right now. Focusing updates on the chat with the streaming radar for now.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2289
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK/SRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 071930Z - 072130Z

WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF THE ENVIRONMENT N OF TORNADO
WATCH #870...AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY -- SHOWS SOME NWD DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING INTO N
CENTRAL OK AND FAR S CENTRAL/SERN KS...THOUGH NWD MOVEMENT OF THE
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BE OPPOSED BY PERSISTENT ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT N OF THE FRONT. WHILE THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO HINDER NWD PROGRESS OF THE WARM FRONT...SOME ADVANCEMENT
OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW NWD EXTENSION OF SURFACE-BASED
DESTABILIZATION. THOUGH DEGREE OF POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN -- AS THIS POTENTIAL THREAT IS DIRECTLY TIED TO WARM
FRONTAL PROGRESS...POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL HAIL APPEARS SOMEWHAT
GREATER WITH ONGOING/ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION INTO SERN KS ATOP THE
SHALLOW COOLER AIRMASS. WHILE ANTICIPATED HAIL SIZE DOES NOT
WARRANT WW ISSUANCE ATTM...WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY OVER TIME IF
THREAT FOR LARGER HAIL BECOMES MORE APPARENT...OR IF MORE
SUBSTANTIAL NWD PROGRESS OF THE WARM SECTOR IS OBSERVED THUS
INCREASING SURFACE-BASED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..GOSS.. 11/07/2011

[venture]

Bulletin - eas activation requested
tornado warning
national weather service norman ok
214 pm cst mon nov 7 2011

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* tornado warning for...
Greer county in southwest oklahoma...
Northern harmon county in southwest oklahoma...
Extreme northwestern kiowa county in southwest oklahoma...

* until 300 pm cst

* at 214 pm cst...national weather service radar indicated a severe
thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 6 miles south of
vinson...moving northeast at 35 mph.

* locations in the warning include brinkman...mcknight...vinson and
willow.

[Thunder]

I'm missing a lot today. LOL

[Thunder]

KWTV CH 9 STREAMING http://www.news9.com/Global/category...28&BannerId=15

KOCO CH 5 STREAMING http://mfile.akamai.com/12893/live/reflector:38841.asx

KWTV has been the one with the most impressive videos lately.

[BG918]

Awesome videos of the tornadoes in the Wichita Mountains. It looks like the wind farm near Meers sustained damage.

[venture]

We have transitioned into a period of strong damaging winds and large hail. Could still see rapid spin ups ahead of the line where areas of inflow develop. Just be prepared and aware as things roll through overnight.

[MDot]

We have transitioned into a period of strong damaging winds and large hail. Could still see rapid spin ups ahead of the line where areas of inflow develop. Just be prepared and aware as things roll through overnight.

You can count on me cap'n!

[venture]

Ww 873 tornado ok tx 080225z - 081000z
axis..65 statute miles east and west of line..
25ne bvo/bartlesville ok/ - 70sw sps/wichita falls tx/ ..aviation coords.. 55nm e/w /25wsw osw - 53nne abi/ hail surface and aloft..2 inches. Wind gusts..65 knots.
Max tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035.

[venture]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 873
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
825 PM CST MON NOV 7 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 825 PM UNTIL
400 AM CST.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
ISOLATED INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 870...WW 871...WW 872...

DISCUSSION...EXISTING SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED INTO AN EXTENSIVE
BROKEN SW-NE SQLN...WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS AND ROTATING STRUCTURES.
BOTH LOW LVL AND DEEP SHEAR EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT LATER
TNGT AS NM UPR VORT AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX CONTINUE NEWD.
CONTINUED INFLOW OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING
SHEAR/ASCENT...MAY SUFFICIENTLY OFFSET DIURNAL INCREASE IN SBCIN TO
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES WITH THE STORMS...IN ADDITION
TO SWATHS OF DMGG WIND AND SVR HAIL. SETUP ALSO MAY SUPPORT A FEW
CORRIDORS WITH PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.


WT 0873
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 80%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 20%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 65
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 23035
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO