Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - September/October 2011

[Tydude]

7 day forecast

[Tydude]

Area forecast discussion
national weather service norman ok
303 pm cdt tue oct 25 2011

.discussion...
Cold front has begun to push into nw ok this afternoon with very
warm temps prevailing ahead of the boundary. Expect front to
continue swd overnight reaching central/se parts of the fa by
sunrise wednesday. Main threat for showers/tstms overnight will be
with nern parts of the area as the front encounters somewhat better
moisture. Best precip chances on wednesday will remain near the
frontal boundary as it continues to advance southward through
southern ok and north texas. Rain chances increase areawide by
wednesday night as large scale lift increases north of the front as
the upper system over the rockies approaches the region. Models have
come into better agreement with the handling of the southern part of
the system developing a low over nrn nm wednesday night with the
system evolving into an open wave as it move eastward across the
southern plains into thursday. Expect fairly widespread precip to
develop late wednesday/wednesday night and continue into thursday
morning before gradually ending from the west as the upper system
exits the area. Diminishing clouds and light winds will lead to a
cold morning on friday with frost/freeze likely...esp north. Genly
dry weather will persist through the remainder of the pd with a
gradual warming trend into the early part of next week.

[Tydude]

7 days forecast for Tuesday Evening from 4,5,and 9

[Tydude]

well it looks like we are making up the rain then we didn't get for the past couple of months

[venture]

Unfortunately it has only been a band aid on the situation. Most remember we've been sitting around 15 to 16 inches below normal for the last 365 days. Even with the large amounts of rain recently, that number has actually gotten worse. We are now over 17 inches below normal in Central OK. We are going to need to get even more moisture on a continuous basis to catch up. Unfortunately it doesn't look like it will have over the next two weeks.

[Thunder]

There got to be a point where NWS need to let it go. 365 days is to long ago to be worrying about. We focus on the current and future needs. For example, next Spring could be very rainy resulting the state to be green for whole Summer, but NWS will complain that we are still in drought and below rainfall amount by still figuring in the past 365 days which would screw weather data by using old last year's stats. NWS are in a severe emergency for a complete overhaul.

[Tydude]

we need to move on from this year drought maybe next year in January we may get a lot of snow or maybe none at all

[venture]

There got to be a point where NWS need to let it go. 365 days is to long ago to be worrying about. We focus on the current and future needs. For example, next Spring could be very rainy resulting the state to be green for whole Summer, but NWS will complain that we are still in drought and below rainfall amount by still figuring in the past 365 days which would screw weather data by using old last year's stats. NWS are in a severe emergency for a complete overhaul.

Stop and think about what you write first before hitting "post". It'll save you some grief.

The ground and environment doesn't care that a date switched on a calendar. It doesn't make weather conditions go away. The ground water table and such still depends on what has been happening over a longer period. Who said it was the NWS making a big deal? That was *ME* pulling the numbers based on the data from the Mesonet on what has been received compared to the 30 year average. You say we need to focus on current and future needs? Well...current the ground is effin dry. How is that? You can't just say a drought is done when it is still on going. It is called look below the surface and evaluating all the details, not be caught up in some twisted tin hat conspiracy you seem to be drawn towards.

If we get a lot of rain or snow this winter, yes that will help drought conditions. It will increase the ground moisture content and move us out of it. Does that mean we need to get all 17 inches? Not at all...However we do need a long duration rain event to get the ground moisture replenished.

Let me give you some links to go read before you comment again about the NWS being on some agenda in regards to the drought.
- http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/...ht/palmer.html
- http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...sessment.shtml

[bandnerd]

Yes, the NWS has an agenda, that is so the problem here.

Just like our bodies don't re-start themselves with calorie counts/needs at midnight every day, the weather doesn't re-set itself just because our calendar says it should. We are in an historical drought, and the recent rain isn't enough to negate that. Venture has everything right. If you respect him so much, then listen to him because unlike most of us, he actually knows what he's talking about, and doesn't just talk about the weather in an, "Oh, it's gonna be warm out" kind of way.

[jn1780]

Thunder probably took needing 17 inches too literally. That would also be like saying were good for the next year because we received all our yearly rainfall in one month(silly example, I know). In reality, they look at more than just the rain gauge or calenders.

[venture]

Although it isn't close to us, Oklahoma did have its first measurable snowfall yesterday out in the Panhandle. Still some snow out in the TX PH today, but just a cold disgusting rain here in the main body. We need the rain definitely, but just 15 degrees cooler and it would be pretty white stuff. :-P

[Snowman]

we need to move on from this year drought maybe next year in January we may get a lot of snow or maybe none at all

Also say we get 17 inches of snow, 17 inches of snow is not equal to 17 inches of rain and our water reserve at Lake Canton is down to 33% which requires run off in it's tributaries to get it's level up which it is not going to happen from snow.

[venture]

Yeah. We need higher moisture quantity snow this year to help. Last year we had a lot of accumulation, but at a 20 or 22 to 1 ratio...it just didn't do a lot. We need a good 8 or 10 to 1 ratio. Also could do without the wind and just get a nice thick blanket put down to cover everything.

[MDot]

I hate it when I go to Newsok.com after it rains or while it's raining and one of their main headlines is "Oklahoma rain not enough to stop drought", and they do that everytime like they're just dying to give us bad news and it's not like I ever though that a few hours rain was gonna end a year long drought, and if anybody out there does think that, well then God help them.

[venture]

Could be a sign of a crazy winter. Winter Storm Watches and a few warnings are up from Virginia through Maine as the areas over there are looking at 6 to 12 inches of snow. Pretty crazy to see a winter storm this early, but not the snow. Have seen some light snow (nothing more than a dusting) on Halloween when I lived back that way.

[MDot]

It seems like I remember when I was little watching the news that up in New York people had to dig out the snow starting at their front door otherwise they'd be trapped because it had snowed so much. It snowed like 5 ft and there were snow drifts up to about 8 or 9 ft tall.

[Thunder]

Who on here has the ANDROID smartphone?! Go on the Android Market and search for Radar Now!!! Its so awesome! Its free. They have premium upgrade option, if you want. Really kool radar. Venture will approve!

Tyler, you only need to post those 7-Day forecasts once, cuz those pictures automatically update since they are all the same URL. :-)

[MDot]

I have an Android! :-)

[Brett]

National Weather Festival

Tomorrow Saturday October 29 from 9am to 1pm at the Norman NWS (Hwy 9 & Jenkins).

[Thunder]

I have an Android! :-)

You're such a good boy!!! Add me >>> 405.824.4078 <<< I'll add ya when you text me. Hurry!!! We can talk about all the apps on the ANDROID Market!!! Nothing that iCrap will ever have..HAHAHAHAHA!!!

[OKCisOK4me]

Who on here has the ANDROID smartphone?! Go on the Android Market and search for Radar Now!!! Its so awesome! Its free. They have premium upgrade option, if you want. Really kool radar. Venture will approve!

Tyler, you only need to post those 7-Day forecasts once, cuz those pictures automatically update since they are all the same URL. :-)

I've had that app for months. I think Brian Bates mentioned it in the android apps thread a while back.

[Thunder]

I've had that app for months. I think Brian Bates mentioned it in the android apps thread a while back.

Where is your review? :'(

[OKCisOK4me]

Where is your review? :'(

Right here... it rocks! But I won't buy a one or two year subscription. The basic is perfect!

[MDot]

Sounds like I need to jump in on that.

And I got you Thunder.

[SoonerDave]

Disregard, just saw the November/December thread...sorry.