Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - September/October 2011

[Bunty]

So people at the OSU game didn't get real soaked. The jet stream is moving straight north so eastward movement of this system is very slow.

[venture]

How long is it suppose to rain like this venture?

Through tomorrow, then scattered stuff for a few days.

So people at the OSU game didn't get real soaked. The jet stream is moving straight north so eastward movement of this system is very slow.

Yeah. The models were very consistent on a very sharp cut off of the eastward progression of this. Tulsa could very well stay completely dry or at least miss out on any decent rainfall.

[Thunder]

Nonstop rain here....from market to mom's house that I know of. Lots of heavy rain. Storm drain is bout 4 feet high with water. Will check later on rain totals. Oh, just want to say that its funny how that guy, the one posted a facepalm pic, must be feeling really stupid now. LoL

I have a picture of Taz in the rain wearing his first raincoat. There was a short rain break, so he went out to pee. I will post it when I can.

[SkyWestOKC]

Thunder, he was facepalming because you said "The Weekend of Friday, Saturday, and Sunday." By default, those days are generally referred to as the weekend. That statement could mean this weekend, next weekend, etc. lol.

[Thunder]

I was being specific as much as possible. :-(

[venture]

Rain is starting to move out a bit. Metro area has about another 3-4 hours of rain before it lightens up a bunch. Hopefully it sticks around a bit longer, but things seem to be drying up quick out west. Didn't get the insane amounts the models were tossing out, which is good since this was relatively short term in duration.

Around 2 to 2.5 inches in the Metro area so far, and another batch of heavy rain will be moving in from the south in the next hour.

[jn1780]

Thunder, he was facepalming because you said "The Weekend of Friday, Saturday, and Sunday." By default, those days are generally referred to as the weekend. That statement could mean this weekend, next weekend, etc. lol.

I was thinking it was the over dramatization that warranted the face palm.

[venture]

Might get a little extension to the moderate rain in Central OK. Back edge is sliding east very slowly, but dry air is sliding up from the southwest. This is morning North/Northeast about 25 mph. So while the main band may not officially be east of us, it looks like the bulk of precip will get choked off from the south. Rain totals for the metro area are now 3 to 4" west of I-35 and 1 to 3" east of I-35.

[Easy180]

This should help out our pitiful lakes a little right?

[OKCisOK4me]

I moved furniture between 2 & 5:30 today... it was FUN!! As far as Lake Hefner goes, I couldn't see any lake bottom between the parkway and Stars & Stripes Park so its been filling up!

[jn1780]

I moved furniture between 2 & 5:30 today... it was FUN!! As far as Lake Hefner goes, I couldn't see any lake bottom between the parkway and Stars & Stripes Park so its been filling up!

Water from Canton should be on the way also. They said they were going to wait until it rains.

[OkieHornet]

in my ace hardware rain gauge in my backyard in northwest edmond, i got 5" total over the weekend. not sure how accurate it is, but either way, got a nice healthy dose of precipitation...

[USG'60]

I got 5 3/4" near 23rd and May.

[venture]

Good graphic showing what we still need to take care of the drought...roughly another 15 inches or so for Central OK.

[Roadhawg]

I was thinking it was the over dramatization that warranted the face palm.

Might have been the RED ALERT

[BG918]

Any chance moisture from Hurricane Jova that will hit near Manzanillo, MX in the next couple days makes its way north toward Oklahoma?

[venture]

Any chance moisture from Hurricane Jova that will hit near Manzanillo, MX in the next couple days makes its way north toward Oklahoma?

Didn't look like it the last I looked at the model run. Keeps the moisture down south, but we can always hope.

Today...Slight Risk of Severe Weather out West.



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
WRN PARTS OF TX/OK...

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF INTENSE UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK PROPAGATING FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS THIS PERIOD. IN THE LOW LEVELS...LEE
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL INTENSIFY TODAY AND GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO A PACIFIC FRONT WHILE PROGRESSING EWD INTO LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS.

STEEPENING LOW- TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL COINCIDE WITH A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION TODAY
E OF LEE TROUGH/PACIFIC FRONT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING EWD
FROM THE ROCKIES MAY TEMPER DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DESTABILIZATION
PROCESS...BUT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES WILL STILL APPROACH 500-1000
J/KG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE A LEAD
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN PARTS OF CO/NM WHICH WILL CONTINUE EWD.
EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT MOTION SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY SHIFT E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT PRIOR TO
PEAK HEATING. NONETHELESS...THE TRAILING INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
WILL COMBINE WITH LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG INTENSIFYING SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO FOSTER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE LEE
TROUGH/PACIFIC FRONT...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM
MODES --INCLUDING SUPERCELLS-- APPEARS TO BE OVER PARTS OF THE TX/OK
PNHDLS INTO NWRN TX AND WRN OK. HERE...THE EXIT REGION OF MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS WILL ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITHIN A
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT EXHIBITING VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...THOUGH
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS
DEVELOP A COLD POOL.

[Thunder]

Nice storms out there.

[Thunder]

God, thank you for answering our prayers. We are forever more deeper in our debt to you.

[Thunder]

Let there be snow! Let there be snow! This kind of weather brings us together watching Venture's show!

[venture]

Updated Long Term Outlook Through the 28th

Thursday, October 13, 2011 -- Highs 70s. Dry.

Friday, October 14, 2011 -- Highs Upper 60s NW, Low 80s SE. Dry.

Saturday, October 15, 2011 -- Highs Upper 60s NW, Low 80s SE. Dry.

Sunday, October 16, 2011 -- Highs 70s & 80s. Dry.

Monday, October 17, 2011 -- Highs 70s & 80s. Dry.

Tuesday, October 18, 2011 -- Highs 60s North, 70s South. Dry.

Wednesday, October 19, 2011 -- Highs 60s. Dry.

Thursday, October 20, 2011 -- Highs 60s. Dry.

Friday, October 21, 2011 -- Highs 60s North, 70s South

Saturday, October 22, 2011 -- Highs 60s/70s Early Falling to 40s by Evening. Showers possible statewide. Potential for some rain/snow mix in the far NW part of OK.

Sunday, October 23, 2011 -- Highs 40s to near 50. Lows upper 30s north, 40s elsewhere. Heavy rain Southern OK, light Rain Central. Dry Northern OK.

Monday, October 24, 2011 -- Lows 30s. Highs 40s to low 50s west. Dry.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011 -- Lows low 30s East (Freeze Possible), Mid 40s SW. Highs 50s west to 40s east. Dry.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011 -- Lows 30s East to 40s west. Highs 50s. Showers possible.

Thursday, October 27, 2011 -- Highs 50 east to 60s west.

Friday, October 28, 2011 -- Highs 50s north to 60s south.

[Thunder]

Guys, I think ya'all should start hitting the stores now for emergency supplies. Ya'all don't want to wait until the last minute.

[bandnerd]

God, thank you for answering our prayers. We are forever more deeper in our debt to you.

So...what do we say to him about the horrific drought? If he brings us rain, doesn't he also not bring it?

[MDot]

Thanks a lot Thunder, you turned this into a religous debate.

[Thunder]

So...what do we say to him about the horrific drought? If he brings us rain, doesn't he also not bring it?

Well, the past several months proved to us all just how bad Oklahomans have been. God has His own ways when deciding punishments. It took the few to pray and plead to God to redeliver rain to the state. God heard them and mysteriously took care of them, even though it may not be something they were wanting, but He provided something to them to at least help them through until He felt it was appropriate to release the rain. God is full of love and compassion. The sinning Oklahomans enjoyed the rain, but they should know the power that be behind the rain. As you all know, God works in a mysterious way. The rain that we all have seen may not have all been good. For example, the sinners coming in direct contact with each and every raindrop onto their skins may have unknowingly come in contact with radioactive (or maybe acid) raindrop quality while all the others enjoyed purity. Things are not always as they seem to be. Just know that God is always watching, always working, always thinking, always delivering, and definitely always punishing. We are at the mercy of God.