Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - September/October 2011

[SoonerDave]

Hey, venture, what's on tap about a possible pattern change next week (around 5-6 Oct)? Big rain event on tap, or just an increase in POP, or too early to tell?

[venture]

Busy day today, so let me get squared away on what the extended looks like...

Weds 28th - Very Warm and Dry. Highs 80s and 90s.
Thurs 29th - Warm. Temps 70s north, near 90 south.
Friday 30th - Nice. Temps 60s to 70s.
Sat 1st - Nice. Chance of rain NW. Temps 70s.
Sun 2nd - Nice again with very slight chance of rain NW. Temps 70s near 80 west.
Mon 3rd - Dry. Temps 70s to near 80.
Tues 4th - Dry. Temps 70s.
Weds 5th - Dry. Temps 70s west, 60s east.
Thurs 6th - Showers and Storms statewide, mostly light amounts though. Temps mainly in the 70s.
Friday 7th - Showers and Storms, mainly east of I-35. Chance of severe weather will be SE Oklahoma. Heavy rain possible in Eastern OK with over 1 inch possible. Temps 60s to low 70s.
Sat 8th - Showers/Storms very early in the SE, dry elsewhere. Temps 60s, 70s south.
Sun 9th - Dry. Temps 60s to 70s west.
Mon 10th - Dry. Temps 60s and 70s.
Tues 11th - Chance of a shower south, otherwise dry. Temps 50s north, 60s south.
Weds 12th - Maybe a shower but should be dry. Temps in the 50s to near 60.

So a couple notes.
- No snow yet. *pout* LOL
- Mostly dry going forward, but there is a pattern change to get into a Fall mode. Only one real good shot of rain, so hopefully things slow up a bit to make it more statewide.
- Severe weather looks fairly limited...but we need to remember 1998 when we had the outbreak of 20+ tornadoes on the 22nd (?) of the month. Things can still happen.
- Clipper systems will start showing up in the Northern Plains and Great Lakes towards the end. Don't be shocked if someone sees a snowflake during the next 2 weeks.
- The first real push of cold air for the season comes in towards the second half of the forecast period. It isn't a major blast at all (still got a few months for that), but it is a definite shift to get rid of these Summer like temps.
- GFS has a hurricane moving up through the Caribbean by the middle part of October...but we know how that goes with long range forecasts.

[Easy180]

Definitely not a weather expert but I guess it is safe to assume that we are in trouble if the drought continues through the fall and winter??

[Thunder]

Definitely not a weather expert but I guess it is safe to assume that we are in trouble if the drought continues through the fall and winter??

Serious trouble. We'll be thrown into all sort of crisis.

[venture]

Definitely not a weather expert but I guess it is safe to assume that we are in trouble if the drought continues through the fall and winter??

It'll make for a pretty rough fire season this winter and next summer if it happens. La Nina getting strong...yeah not looking good. Pray for a bunch of snow (not all at once) this winter that is fairly high in moisture quality. If we can get the snow to stick around and really help soak the ground underneath it that would be even better.

[MDot]

Jesus, help the state of Oklahoma to recieve moisture so we don't all burn. Make it snow a lot and turn our state in to a vast wonderland of white as we play in it like children. And let the rain come back and show us it's wet, beautiful face again next spring and a little bit before winter. In Jesus name, Amen.

[Achilleslastand]

Id take gobs of rain anyday over snow. Isnt on average 10 inches of snow measures out to about an inch of rain?

[venture]

Id take gobs of rain anyday over snow. Isnt on average 10 inches of snow measures out to about an inch of rain?

On average yes, but not for us last winter. During the major snow events we were running a 20 to 25 to 1 ratio which is pretty unheard of down here. If we had a higher moisture content to the snow we would not have received the vast totals we did as it would have compacted faster. There is a vast difference with a gradual wet snow that accumulates over extended periods of time versus a dry powder that gets blown around easily. If it is going to be cold, I would definitely not take the rain. I'd rather have a clean/bright outdoors instead of a dead muddy gray winter. Also building up a good wet snow pack does wonders for putting moisture back into the top soil - as well as preserving plants for the following Spring.

[Achilleslastand]

Did KFOR weather just forecast a 90 degree high for next week? Jeesh enough is enough bring on the permament cooler temps.

[silvergrove]

Cool video of the deep upper low over the midwest that's affecting weather on the East Coast.

[Thunder]

When did this happen and what kind of weather? Those clouds are moving really fast. :-O

[venture]

When did this happen and what kind of weather? Those clouds are moving really fast. :-O

That is what has been on going this week. The clouds are moving fast due to the time lapse on the image. :-) It would help us out a ton here if we could get a closed off low like that to just keep producing rain for an extended period. However, here we sit high and dry.

[Bunty]

Here's a less dramtic look at the deep low: http://stillwaterweather.com/sat.php#Real

[SoonerDave]

venture,

Any early speculation on how next Friday/Saturday looks between OKC and Dallas? Lots of people heading S on I-35 next week for OU-Texas...

-David

[ljbab728]

venture,

Any early speculation on how next Friday/Saturday looks between OKC and Dallas? Lots of people heading S on I-35 next week for OU-Texas...

-David

I keep hearing speculation about storms moving in for that weekend. Keeping my fingers crossed.

[venture]

Few potential severe weather days showing up with tonight's model run. Not going to get into specifics, just pointing out dates.

October 7th - along and east of I-35
October 10th - Central OK
October 13th - Northern & Western OK

Colder air also looks to be really wanting to move in during the middle of October. Highs in the 40s and 50s over most of the state. We'll see if this materializes.

[venture]

Long term forecast still shows things getting colder by mid month. Highs in the 40s and 50s in the state. There is some snow showing up as a possibility in areas from the Lower Great Lakes up through Minnesota. Would imagine this time of year the amounts would be very light and mostly mixed with rain.

[BG918]

Snow in Oklahoma is possible in late October. I remember as a kid in the early 90's there being 2" of snow on the ground while trick-o-treating in Tulsa on Halloween.

The latest Hazardous Weather Outlook is now indicating the possibility for severe weather next weekend.

[Thunder]

Hi Venture,

Its me again, Thunder, and I have a movie suggestion for you.

http://movies.netflix.com/WiMovie/Li...?trkid=3264467

If you are still a loyal Netflix customer, you can enjoy Instant Streaming for Lightning: Fire from the Sky. It is a weather movie (the cop sure is cute). I'd like your opinion on the cop's son's solution to end the weather and if its logical/possible or not. :-)

[BG918]

venture,
Any early speculation on how next Friday/Saturday looks between OKC and Dallas? Lots of people heading S on I-35 next week for OU-Texas...

-David

It looks like the system will slow down and won't affect N Texas/Oklahoma until late Saturday night or more likely Sunday. Still a big ? whether there will be enough low level moisture for widespread rain and thunderstorms. The low might track too far north...we should know more by mid-week.

It looks like temps in the high 70's/ low 80's for the game in Dallas. Some more cloud cover would be nice.

[venture]

Extended outlook based on the 00Z GFS for 10/04/11...

Tues 10/04 - Warm and dry. Highs in the 80s.
Weds 10/05 - Warm and dry with highs in the 70s and 80s.
Thurs 10/06 - Warm with temps in the 70s. Chance of rain far Western OK.
Fri 10/07 - Warm and dry early. Temps in the 70s. Storms likely in Western OK late with some heavy rain. Severe risk very low.
Sat 10/08 - Showers and storms likely. Heavy rain possible especially in Western and Southern OK. Very low severe risk. Temps 60s and 70s.
Sun 10/09 - Scattered showers and storms likely. Rain amounts should be lighter. Best chances Central and SW OK. Temps 60s and 70s.
Mon 10/10 - Isolated storms/showers in Western OK, otherwise dry. Temps 70s. Could see a severe storm.
Tue 10/11 - Slight chance NW OK, dry elsewhere. Could have a strong storm. Temps in the 70s.
Weds 10/12 - Dry with temps in the 70s.
Thurs 10/13 - Dry with temps in the 70s.
Fri 10/14 - Slight chance for SE OK, otherwise dry with temps in the 70s.
Sat 10/15 - Dry with temps in the 60s and 70s.
Sun 10/16 - Chance NW OK early, then dry. Temps in the 70s.
Mon 10/17 - Dry and temps in the 70s.
Tues 10/18 - Chance of storms Central and Southern OK early and into Eastern late. Temps in the 70s and 80. Severe weather possible.
Weds 10/19 - Falling temps with passing cold front. Early highs in the 70s and 80s falling into the 50s. Chance of rain mainly I-35 and to the east.

Winter Weather Outlook
- Potential for some accumulating snow in the Northern Plains by October 17th through 19th.

[Thunder]

Hi Venture,

Its me again, Thunder, and I have a movie suggestion for you.

http://movies.netflix.com/WiMovie/Li...?trkid=3264467

If you are still a loyal Netflix customer, you can enjoy Instant Streaming for Lightning: Fire from the Sky. It is a weather movie (the cop sure is cute). I'd like your opinion on the cop's son's solution to end the weather and if its logical/possible or not. :-)

^^^ What about this? :-(

[venture]

Chance increasing for some heavy rain in the state this weekend. New GFS tonight paints a good 3 to 4 inches over Central OK with some areas getting 6" or more. We'll see if this even happens, but this would help put a nice dent in the drought...if it doesn't come in a pour down.

Making some updates/changes to the SS website as we head into the winter season. Hopefully it'll be easier to navigate and such. Still a work in progress, but slowly coming together: http://www.storm-scope.com/

[MDot]

Chance increasing for some heavy rain in the state this weekend. New GFS tonight paints a good 3 to 4 inches over Central OK with some areas getting 6" or more. We'll see if this even happens, but this would help put a nice dent in the drought...if it doesn't come in a pour down.

Making some updates/changes to the SS website as we head into the winter season. Hopefully it'll be easier to navigate and such. Still a work in progress, but slowly coming together: http://www.storm-scope.com/

I pray to God that you're right dude.

[Achilleslastand]

I pray to God that you're right dude.

Ditto....
I hope we get at the minimum 3-4 inches of rain here in the metro area.