Tropical Weather Discussion 2011

[BG918]

Thanks for that venture. I think the front will take the system NE but it's interesting to see several models showing a westward or northward movement. I believe that is due to the possibility of the front stalling out before it reaches the coast allowing the storm to stay on its current path to north and northwest.

[ou48A]

Nice little website to use for people that wonder where most the graphics come from: http://spaghettimodels.com/

Great site,,,,,,,, thanks

[kevinpate]

I'll be selfish and root for it to wander nnw into Arkansas, or anywhere that isn't sw Alabama.

[BG918]

I'll be selfish and root for it to wander nnw into Arkansas, or anywhere that isn't sw Alabama.

If it interacts with a stalled front it could bring a lot of beneficial rain to our region being such a large system with a significant amount of Gulf moisture. Though most of the rain would be over Arkansas and possibly eastern OK. It will be interesting to watch over the next couple days.

[kevinpate]

Yep. I hail from se OK and they are hurting as much as we are it seems, and if the bulk lands in Ark, well, they are hurting too. My elder son and his bride are in sw AL, and they don't need a lot more rain and certainly don't need any significant storms.

I freely admit it's selfish of me, but yeah, c'mon w/ that nw track!

[venture]

Good indication of what areas need the most rain. Western half of LA needs is badly, so this will help. However, most points east don't until you get into Central AL and most of GA.

[BG918]

Sure enough the latest model runs are taking the storm to the NE. No rain for TX/OK......

I do wonder how this will affect our rain chances with the strong cold front that moves into central OK Saturday night. Does a storm in the Gulf help or hurt our chances, which were pretty slight to begin??

We may see some clouds from this by morning:


Latest model run:


There is still time but we NEED a tropical system to move over TX/OK to help get us out the drought. Normal or even above average rainfall this fall and winter will help but to get back to "normal" we need a lot more rain that only a tropical storm or hurricane can produce...

[venture]

So here is a run down of what is out there.

Hurricane Katia is doing her thing, but seems to be weakening some. Storm should stay off shore and continue to curve out to sea. Looks like she will retain hurricane force winds through the transition to an extratropical system by Sunday.

TD 14 is still struggling to get its act together. It should get to Tropical Storm strength today, and hurricane strength in a few days. The track may be similar to Katia's just further south. It will probably graze the islands, go near/north of PR, and begin to curve out to see before reaching the Bahamas. A couple models do go more south, with one taking it into the Caribbean...however the vast majority recurve out to sea.

INVEST 96 is forming right now in the Bay of Campeche (Southern Gulf). Models are completely split on what to do with it. Roughly half take is South into Mexico and then out into the Pacific. The other have go Northeast into LA/MS/AL and up into the Great Lakes/Northeast. This is our best shot though for something to spread moisture up to us...either after going into the Pacific the moisture coming back overhead or the storm going NW instead into TX. We will see what happens, but the probability of an Oklahoma impact right now are less than 10%.

[venture]

Advisories on TS Nate started late this afternoon. Official forecast takes it North and then West into Mexico in the next few days as a hurricane.



TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
1000 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY...CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE...SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE
IN EITHER THE POSITION OR THE ORGANIZATION OF NATE DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED ABOUT 60 N MI
NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA...AND OVERALL THE SYSTEM
RETAINS A SOMEWHAT BAROCLINIC APPEARANCE DUE TO ITS POSITION NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF A FRONTAL ZONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
HOWEVER...A SHIP REPORTED 40 KT WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT
0000 UTC....AND THAT IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 090/2...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO REFORMATIONS OF THE CENTER WILL CAUSE LARGER
CHANGES IN POSITION THAN THE ACTUAL MOTION OF THE CYCLONE. AFTER
THAT TIME...RISING PRESSURES TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SHOULD
CAUSE NATE TO BEGIN A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WHICH MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS NATE TURNING WESTWARD BY 120 HOURS. THERE REMAINS A
LOT OF NORTH-TO-SOUTH SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...AND THE
CANADIAN MODEL IS A MAJOR OUTLIER IN SHOWING A MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. THAT SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS THE
CENTER OF NATE REMAINING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

NATE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN AREA OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO
THIS LOW SHEAR AND THE WARM UNDERLYING WATERS BY FORECASTING
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS ABUNDANT DRY AIR TO THE
NORTHWEST OF NATE WHICH COULD SLOW THE RATE OF STRENGTHENING IF THE
STORM INGESTS IT...AND THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE DURING THAT TIME.
AFTER 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DIVIDED ON HOW MUCH WIND
SHEAR NATE MIGHT ENCOUNTER...WITH THE ECMWF FORECASTING A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THAN THE OTHER MODELS. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 20.4N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 20.3N 92.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 20.5N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 21.1N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 21.7N 92.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 23.0N 94.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 23.5N 95.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 23.5N 97.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[BG918]

Some models are taking Nate towards the northern Gulf

[venture]

Some models are taking Nate towards the northern Gulf

They've been doing that for a couple days now, but NHC doesn't want to bite on it completely. However, it does raise some hope of a Texas landfall to help bring some needed rain.

[venture]

Just about all the models quoted earlier have changed and are how either going very slow in the Southern Gulf, recurve back south, or have joined those going south into Mexico or the Pacific.

[venture]

Not much change with Nate this evening. About every model, except 1, has this going into Mexico now by Monday as a near Category 2-3 hurricane.

Side note, the few that re-emerge Nate into the Pacific are probably underplaying the effects of the mountains in Mexico. However, should this occur and Nate still be relatively in tact, he will retain his original name unlike the last time it happened when they were given a new name.

[Thunder]

Venture, I like that orange line. If the other models could just follow that, then the hurricane will go there. lol

[BG918]

There is potential for Nate to move north after hitting Mexico. Hopefully that brings some moisture towards the state into next week.

The remnants of Lee are actually moving towards the west and will bring a chance of rain to eastern OK today and tomorrow.

[ou48A]

The tropics seem rather active.
I know its early but is there anything on the horizon that looks like it could impact the OU game Tallahassee?
Thanks

[venture]

The tropics seem rather active.
I know its early but is there anything on the horizon that looks like it could impact the OU game Tallahassee?
Thanks

We are at the peak of the season this week...it is to be expected.

Too early to see if there would be any tropical impacts to the FSU/OU game. There are a couple more waves out there, so we'll just have to see if what develops.

[venture]

Quick update

Katia is now a strong Post-Tropical cyclone with near hurricane force winds still.
Maria is struggling to stay alive right now. It will like get downgraded to a Depression soon and may regain Tropical Storm strength as it recurves out to sea.
Nate is also struggling to really get any development near its core. It will remain a mid range tropical storm as it moves into Mexico soon and dissipates in a couple days.

[venture]

So after a little calm period in the Atlantic (and OU finally getting their act in gear to put the game away)...here is the latest on the tropics.

Ophelia is currently approaching the Lesser Antilles and should continue WNW and eventually more NNW as it starts to curve out. Should not reach hurricane strength as it looks now.

Philippe formed just west of the Cape Verde islands earlier today. It is forecast to be a hurricane on Monday and start to weaken again. It should begin to curve early staying well out in the Central/Eastern Atlantic.

Invest 91 is the biggest concern right now. It has the potential to develop into a Depression in the next day or two. Right now it still looks pretty pathetic. Should it organize it will move due North and likely make landfall in North Carolina and move up the coast. How far up, is anyone's guess. Models are moving it out right in NC or not until it gets into New England.

Other than that...nothing else that really gets my eye. There is some convection in the Caribbean along the coast of Central America, but nothing organized now.

[venture]

After dying out and then getting reclassified a few days ago, Ophelia has reached Major Hurricane status. Tropical Storm watches are up for Bermuda. Pretty storm when looking at it on sat: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html





Philippe is still out there, just kinda chillin'. Since it has been a fairly week storm, is hasn't really curved out to see as first forecast. Will continue moving NW to WNW for the next few days until doing a dramatic recurve out to sea - if it survives that long. Will say on the latest sat images, activity near the core has been improving some - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-rb.html

[venture]

Not quite done yet...Florida could be looking at a Tropical Storm moving through in the next few days.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA FROM CANCUN MEXICO AND LA BAJADA
CUBA INDICATE THAT THE LARGE AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS CHANGE LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION. THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND THE WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO INTERACT WITH THE LAND MASS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.