Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - July & August 2011

[Thunder]

http://www.koco.com/news/28800818/detail.html

NORMAN, Okla. -- An entomologist at Oklahoma State University says the record-setting heat and ongoing drought in Oklahoma is causing grasshoppers to move into urban areas in search of food.

Rick Grantham, who also is a professor at OSU, told The Norman Transcript that the lack of green vegetation in more rural areas has driven the insects into cities statewide.

"They eat green things, and green things are few and far between right now," Grantham said. "Your green lawn or garden is like a flashing cafe sign to them."

The insect population statewide is down this year, Grantham said, because of the drought and extreme heat, factors that bode well for the countless grasshoppers walking, flying or hopping around the rest of the state.

"A lot of insects eat grasshopper eggs before they hatch but we're not seeing a lot of other insects because of the conditions," Grantham said. "And grasshoppers do well in these conditions, so it's no surprise to see so many of them right now."

The month of July was the hottest month ever in Oklahoma based on records dating to 1895, according to the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, with an average daily temperature of 89.1 degrees

The western two-thirds of the state is in an exceptional drought, according the U.S. Drought Monitor, while most of the eastern one-third is in extreme drought.

[Bunty]

Am I reading this right?

Last month here was the hottest month for any state ever?

Hotter than Arizona, Texas, Nevada, Florida have ever recorded?

That is amazing.

I wouldn't be surprised if Oklahoma has had more daily highs this summer for the nation than any other state.

[BG918]

Storms heading for OKC and Tulsa...if you're lucky you may get a half to one inch out of these as they are moving pretty slowly. There are severe thunderstorm warnings currently up for Kingfisher, Logan, Noble, Kay, Payne, Lincoln, Pawnee and Creek counties. The rain should really help with the fires in Pawnee Co.

[Easy180]

Just got back from Tenkiller and the grasshoppers were everywhere...Every step you took one flew off

[Achilleslastand]

Got a nice little amount of rain as well as some high winds here in nw okc. Parts of the backyard are ponding which is a good sign.Power went off for a few mins but came back on.

[adaniel]

Just got off the phone with my cousin near Rockwell and 122nd (Westlake neighborhood if you know where that is). Says it is U-G-L-Y, lots of power poles snapped, no power, yard full of shingles, all but the biggest trees have major damage to them.

Stay safe out there!

[venture]

Several reports of damage across the state and here in the metro. Also appears to be a possible tornado in eastern OK tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1022 PM CDT MON AUG 08 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM TSTM WND GST GOLTRY 36.53N 98.15W
08/08/2011 E65.00 MPH ALFALFA OK PUBLIC

0545 PM TSTM WND GST OKEENE 36.12N 98.32W
08/08/2011 E75.00 MPH BLAINE OK PUBLIC

0550 PM TSTM WND GST 1 WSW LAHOMA 36.38N 98.11W
08/08/2011 M96.00 MPH MAJOR OK MESONET

0601 PM TSTM WND GST VANCE AIR FORCE BASE 36.34N 97.90W
08/08/2011 M63.00 MPH GARFIELD OK ASOS

0605 PM TSTM WND GST VANCE AIR FORCE BASE 36.34N 97.90W
08/08/2011 M70.00 MPH GARFIELD OK ASOS

0605 PM TSTM WND GST 4 SSE BILLINGS 36.48N 97.42W
08/08/2011 M73.00 MPH NOBLE OK AMATEUR RADIO

0635 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NNE PERRY 36.32N 97.27W
08/08/2011 NOBLE OK PUBLIC

FENCE PANELS AND LARGE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN

0645 PM TSTM WND GST 7 SSE RED ROCK 36.37N 97.13W
08/08/2011 M62.00 MPH NOBLE OK MESONET

0650 PM TSTM WND GST 7 SSE RED ROCK 36.37N 97.13W
08/08/2011 M63.00 MPH NOBLE OK MESONET

0655 PM TSTM WND GST 5 E ORLANDO 36.15N 97.29W
08/08/2011 M69.00 MPH PAYNE OK MESONET

0700 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 S PONCA CITY 36.68N 97.09W
08/08/2011 KAY OK EMERGENCY MNGR

POWER POLES BLOWN DOWN

0700 PM TSTM WND DMG KINGFISHER 35.86N 97.93W
08/08/2011 KINGFISHER OK EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS POWER POLES DOWN AND ESTIMATED 70 MPH WINDS

0703 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NNW STILLWATER 36.14N 97.07W
08/08/2011 M80.00 MPH PAYNE OK ASOS

0705 PM TSTM WND GST 7 N COYLE 36.06N 97.24W
08/08/2011 M64.00 MPH PAYNE OK MESONET

0705 PM TSTM WND GST 2 W STILLWATER 36.12N 97.09W
08/08/2011 M61.00 MPH PAYNE OK MESONET

0710 PM TSTM WND GST 2 W STILLWATER 36.12N 97.09W
08/08/2011 M67.00 MPH PAYNE OK MESONET

0714 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NNW STILLWATER 36.14N 97.07W
08/08/2011 M72.00 MPH PAYNE OK ASOS

0715 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 S WEATHERFORD 35.50N 98.70W
08/08/2011 CUSTER OK PUBLIC

POWER POLES DOWN, TRANSFORMERS BLOWN, LARGE TREE BRANCHES
BROKEN. TWO SEMI TRAILERS BLOWN OVER ON I-40 3 MILES WEST
OF TOWN. WIND ESTIMATED AT 70 MPH.

0720 PM TSTM WND GST 7 N COYLE 36.06N 97.24W
08/08/2011 M59.00 MPH PAYNE OK MESONET

0720 PM TSTM WND GST 2 W STILLWATER 36.12N 97.09W
08/08/2011 M59.00 MPH PAYNE OK MESONET

0750 PM TSTM WND GST 8 WNW EDMOND 35.70N 97.61W
08/08/2011 E60.00 MPH OKLAHOMA OK NWS EMPLOYEE

OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED 60 TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS

0805 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 N BETHANY 35.58N 97.64W
08/08/2011 OKLAHOMA OK BROADCAST MEDIA

NUMEROUS FENCES AND POWER POLES BLOWN DOWN. TIME
ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR

0825 PM TSTM WND GST 6 N OKLAHOMA CITY 35.55N 97.51W
08/08/2011 M71.00 MPH OKLAHOMA OK MESONET

0841 PM TSTM WND GST TINKER AIR FORCE BASE 35.42N 97.39W
08/08/2011 M58.00 MPH OKLAHOMA OK ASOS

0844 PM TSTM WND GST TINKER AIR FORCE BASE 35.42N 97.39W
08/08/2011 M63.00 MPH OKLAHOMA OK ASOS

0855 PM TSTM WND GST TINKER AIR FORCE BASE 35.42N 97.39W
08/08/2011 M64.00 MPH OKLAHOMA OK ASOS

[Thunder]

Tornado.... lol Joke, right?

[venture]

Tornado.... lol Joke, right?

Not a joke. But I did misread the LSR.

0858 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SW HASKELL 35.79N 95.71W
08/08/2011 MUSKOGEE OK BROADCAST MEDIA

BARN DAMAGED...SAME BARN WAS DAMAGED BY THE TORNADO ON
MAY 24TH...WIND ESTIMATED 80 MPH.

Eh it has been a long day.

[Thunder]

Only in Oklahoma

[okcisok]

We live in the NW part of the city. NW of Lake Hefner. Almost every power line on Rockwell between 122nd and Memorial Road was down across Rockwell last night. We lost power about 8:00pm and it came back on around 4:00am. God Bless those OG&E guys and the work they do to restore power. We had about a half inch of rain in the rain gauge this morning.

[Achilleslastand]

Also on May between britton and hefner there were several power poles snapped in half.

[Roadhawg]

We live in the NW part of the city. NW of Lake Hefner. Almost every power line on Rockwell between 122nd and Memorial Road was down across Rockwell last night. We lost power about 8:00pm and it came back on around 4:00am. God Bless those OG&E guys and the work they do to restore power. We had about a half inch of rain in the rain gauge this morning.

Same here around 50th and May area... Lost power a little after 8 and came back on around 3:45... made for a hot night trying to sleep.

[Thunder]

Same here around 50th and May area... Lost power a little after 8 and came back on around 3:45... made for a hot night trying to sleep.

Are you okay? I know how it feel trying to sleep in the Oklahoma's unique Heat Wave.

[venture]

So a nice though...chance of storms over at least the next 5 days. Let it soak in. The thought...the rain will probably just run off, but it's something. LOL

Tonight we do have a slight risk of severe storms in North Central OK for a complex developing in NE & KS right now. Also some severe storms erupting out in the TX Panhandle could move into Western OK.

Wednesday looks like a more widespread severe weather day with MCS activity moving through. Could see a more widespread damaging wind event, but nothing too high end the way it appears now.

SPC Outlook for Wednesday:

...SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE MS VALLEY...
AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY...THE DEEP-LAYER FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
SETTLE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE OH VALLEY WWD TO KS AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. LIFT ACROSS THE WRN
EXTENSION OF THE FRONT WILL BE ENHANCED/STRENGTHENED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD BY BOTH NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM IN PLAINS LLJ AND QG FORCING AIDED
BY A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS.

THUS...EXPECT A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO BE ONGOING WITHIN THE ZONE OF
ENHANCED MASS/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR AND NORTH
OF FRONT ACROSS KS/NEB EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD SERVE TO
REINFORCE THE DEEP-LAYER FRONTAL ZONE AS STRONG WARM SECTOR
DESTABILIZATION COMMENCED WITH HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS OK/TX/AR.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MCS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ON THE FRONT
SPREAD EAST. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT
AND WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION IS OVERCOME BY HEATING/MIXING AND PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE
NEAR FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. EXPECT A MIXED MODE OF
STORM TYPES ACROSS THE SLGT RISK AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
ORGANIZED FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
MAY EVOLVE FROM NRN OK/SERN KS EAST ACROSS THE OZARKS TOWARD WRN TN
THROUGH THE DAY/EVENING WHERE A BELT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO EXIST COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. TO THE SOUTH OF THESE AREAS...ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT...WEAKER EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND INVERTED-V PROFILES IN THE
STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT MORE PULSE AND
MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION POSING MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO
THE EVENING.

[PennyQuilts]

The storms were hard on some people, last night, but in my neck of the woods, the amazing lightning, north wind, rain (just over a quarter inch) and thunder were exhilarating.

[bandnerd]

The way the wind and rain were swirling around in my neighborhood yesterday evening, I expected Jim Cantore to show up and report. It looked like a friggin' hurricane.

[PennyQuilts]

The way the wind and rain were swirling around in my neighborhood yesterday evening, I expected Jim Cantore to show up and report. It looked like a friggin' hurricane.

When the gust front came through, it just about knocked the dog over. The wind was swirling so hard I felt like a rat going down the drain for a little while.

[venture]

Fast forward a bit...all of this is based on 18Z GFS today, which I normally don't like the odd hour runs, but whatever. This is just a glance of what MAY happen. So here we go. Temps will bounce around a lot going forward. If you are in mostly cloudy and rainy conditions, you may be stuck in the 80s. If you have pure sun, 95 to 105 appears to be the rule. With moisture increasing and this new pattern setting up, the 110+ should be moderated a lot.

Thursday - Scattered strong to severe storms over most of Oklahoma. A complex could develop in the late evening in TX and Western OK that could bring very heavy rain and damaging winds.

Friday - Overnight MCS could still be on going with heavy rain rough west of I-35 and south of I-40 by early afternoon. Mostly dry elsewhere except for some sporadic popups.

Saturday - Isolated/Scattered storms around.

Sunday - Appears dry.

Monday - Slight chance of storms out west, but increasing risk of a complex developing in the late evening/overnight.

Tuesday - MCS will move east into Western OK early to around I-35 by Noon before dying out. Evening storms could fire along the outflow in Central OK and a new complex develop in KS/NW OK overnight.

Wednesday - Scattered storms in the Western half of OK during the first half of the day. Slight chance North and Northeast afternoon and evening.

Thursday 8/18 - Storms appear more widespread. Could have heavy rain in NE OK, light amounts back to the west...mainly along and north of I-40 early. Chances going up along I-44 late in the evening.

Friday 8/19 - Storms scattered, some light to moderate rain almost statewide.

Saturday 8/20 - Some isolated storms, not as much.

Sunday 8/21 - Chance of storms far NW OK, dry elsewhere.

Monday 8/22 - Chance of storms statewide.

Tuesday 8/23 - Chance of storms Central & West.

Wednesday 8/24 - Storms mostly northern half with a complex moving out of KS.

Thursday 8/25 - Chance of storms statewide.

[venture]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 761
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1025 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.0 INCH IN DIAMETER

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALTUS OKLAHOMA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 757...WW 758...WW
759...WW 760...

DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED TSTMS THAT FORMER EARLIER IN THE TX
PANHANDLE HAVE MOVED/PROPAGATED E INTO WRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
ENCOUNTER INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE WITH EWD EXTENT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE. AT THE SAME TIME...SUPERCELL
CLUSTER/POSSIBLE DEVELOPING MCS IN CNTRL KS SHOULD CONTINUE STEADILY
SSEWD. COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING OF SSWLY LLJ...SETUP APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR SPORADIC INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
WITH WRN OK ACTIVITY...AND PERHAPS A SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD WIND
THREAT EARLY WED OVER PARTS OF N CNTRL/NE OK.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 29030.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0761 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2011

WS 0761
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : <05%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : <02%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : <05%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 70%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 1.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 550
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 29030
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU1.

[venture]

Here is the earlier discussion on what is going on...



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1926
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1002 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OK...NW TX NEAR RED RIVER.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 100302Z - 100430Z

WW MAY BE REQUIRED TO COVER POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SVR OUTFLOW
FROM WRN OK CONVECTION...AND/OR POTENTIAL SE AND DOWNSHEAR FROM SVR
TSTMS IN CENTRAL KS.

SVR TSTM WINDS HAVE BEEN MEASURED AT W TX MESONET SITE NW CDS...AS
WELL AS 50 KT FROM SEPARATE TSTM BAND AT OK MESONET SITE IN ROGER
MILLS COUNTY. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE BAND OVER WRN OK IS LOCATED WELL
BEHIND ITS OWN GUST FRONT...REFLECTIVITY HAS BEEN
INCREASING...LIKELY RELATED AT LEAST IN PART TO FORCED ASCENT TO LFC
OF INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WITH EWD EXTENT ATOP OUTFLOW POOL.
THIS MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN COLD-POOL GENERATION AND POTENTIAL FOR
STG-SVR GUSTS. ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED INVOF DIFFUSE/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT IS LIFTING NWD ACROSS SWRN OK..AND WHICH STILL
REPRESENTS RELATIVE MIN IN MLCINH BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
SOUNDINGS. ALTHOUGH OUN RAOB INDICATED WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS CENTRAL OK...ELY COMPONENT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT
GREATER MOISTURE CONTENT WWD WITH TIME ACROSS THIS
REGION...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR MAINTENANCE BOTH OF CONVECTING
OVER WRN OK AND TSTMS MOVING SEWD FROM KS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE MARKEDLY WITH NEWD EXTENT AND PROXIMITY TO
FETCH OF NWLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH CURRENT MAGNITUDES RANGING FROM 25
KT OVER SWRN OK TO 55 KT NEAR KS/OK BORDER.

..EDWARDS.. 08/10/2011

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1147 pm cdt tue aug 9 2011

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Southern canadian county in central oklahoma...
Northern grady county in central oklahoma...
Eastern caddo county in southwest oklahoma...

* until 1230 am cdt

* at 1147 pm cdt...national weather service radar indicated a severe
thunderstorm 4 miles west of minco...moving east at 25 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Wind gusts to 65 mph...

* locations in the warning include bridge creek...cogar...minco...
Mustang...tuttle...union city and western oklahoma city.

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1218 am cdt wed aug 10 2011

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Eastern canadian county in central oklahoma...
Oklahoma county in central oklahoma...

* until 100 am cdt

* at 1218 am cdt...national weather service radar indicated severe
thunderstorms along a line extending from piedmont to southwestern
oklahoma city...moving east at 25 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include arcadia...bethany...choctaw...del
city...edmond...forest park...jones...lake aluma...midwest city...
Mustang...nichols hills...nicoma park...oklahoma city...piedmont...
Richland...spencer...the village...tinker air force base...valley
brook...warr acres and yukon.

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1226 am cdt wed aug 10 2011

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Eastern kingfisher county in central oklahoma...
Logan county in central oklahoma...

* until 100 am cdt

* at 1226 am cdt...national weather service radar indicated severe
thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles southwest of
lovell to 6 miles west of cashion...moving east at 40 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...

* locations in the warning include cashion...cedar valley...cimarron
city...crescent...guthrie...lovell...mulhall...nav ina and seward.

[blangtang]

Starting to enter the rainy season, must mean autumn is near...