OKC/Will Rogers Air Service Discussion 2011

[damonsmuz]

So you think we'll see AA put more mainline into OKC within the decade? I'll be anxious to see how AA puts a "chrome" look on a plastic airplane. Say what you will, but AA has the best lookin livery in my eyes. I think im more so interested to see what happens to AE. Could they spin up something like Expressjet tried or will the high costs of regional flying that AE has associated with it make it a tough sell ??

[ljbab728]

Will we see new routes, lose routes... let the speculation begin.....

The loss of any routes is very unlikely since the only destination that AA goes to nonstop from OKC which is not one of their main hubs is LAX. And even LAX is somewhat of a small hub.

[damonsmuz]

AA is hurting financially big time and I sometimes wonder if they could drop a hub from their list. They dropped RDU not too long ago and while they may not drop ORD from the hub, I sometimes wonder if they would scale back ORD and beef up DFW and make ORD a focus city much like LAX. Im not saying kill ORD all together.. but make it more mainline and less regional flights. AA seems to be expanding more DFW routes north these days than they used to. Plus, How were they able to swing such a large airplane order given their shoddy credit score and losses? Could AA merge with someone like USAirways? The massive order today with a mix of Airbus in it does seem to fit the mold of USAirways aircraft. Im just speculating but if AE is divested, then would AE be obligated to provide the same routes and daily flights that they have now with AA or would they be free to change that??? So many questions... so little answers...

[ljbab728]

AA is hurting financially big time and I sometimes wonder if they could drop a hub from their list. They dropped RDU not too long ago and while they may not drop ORD from the hub, I sometimes wonder if they would scale back ORD and beef up DFW and make ORD a focus city much like LAX. Im not saying kill ORD all together.. but make it more mainline and less regional flights. AA seems to be expanding more DFW routes north these days than they used to. Plus, How were they able to swing such a large airplane order given their shoddy credit score and losses? Could AA merge with someone like USAirways? The massive order today with a mix of Airbus in it does seem to fit the mold of USAirways aircraft. Im just speculating but if AE is divested, then would AE be obligated to provide the same routes and daily flights that they have now with AA or would they be free to change that??? So many questions... so little answers...

Any more dropping of hubs or significant scaling back won't happen, period. They have to have both Chicago and Dallas. Both cities are huge origination and destination cities besides being hubs. AA is having financial issues but they are not candidates for a merger. They will survive. I'm not sure what you mean about a shoddy credit score. Do you know something that the rest of the public doesn't?

[OUman]

LAX is very much still a large hub for AA/Eagle, combined they operate upwards of 150 daily departures, that's a big chunk of LAX traffic.

[damonsmuz]

Last I saw , Fitch gave AA had a credit rating of CCC- which makes it a substantial risk. That's just somethin I read online... Im no expert I don't think ORD would ever be eliminated as a hub. But, could some AE routes be dropped or lose frequency? As is looking at OKC, we have far more frequency to DFW than ORD and on bigger planes too.

[venture]

The biggest change we'll see may be on the Eagle side. However, talking with friends that are Eagle employees (not in OKC)...the reliability of Eagle is horrible compared to Chautauqua. So this should open the door to allow for more AmericanConnection flights operated by them. Eagle we'll probably see them get bought up by another out fit or go under massive changes. They are currently the highest cost regional carrier right now, and that isn't going to work playing in the same ring as Republic (Frontier, Chautauqua, Republic, Shuttle America), SkyWest (Skywest, ExpressJet/ASA...now SureJet) and Pinnacle (Pinnacle, Mesaba, and Colgan).

I would be more excited if we also saw a new contract that would allow for more 70-90 seat small jets.

[venture]

So you think we'll see AA put more mainline into OKC within the decade? I'll be anxious to see how AA puts a "chrome" look on a plastic airplane. Say what you will, but AA has the best lookin livery in my eyes.

Umm, though not a great representation, the A300 had a good deal of composites in it. Also they 787 is almost all composite, so they are going to have to get use it.

AA is hurting financially big time and I sometimes wonder if they could drop a hub from their list. They dropped RDU not too long ago and while they may not drop ORD from the hub, I sometimes wonder if they would scale back ORD and beef up DFW and make ORD a focus city much like LAX. Im not saying kill ORD all together.. but make it more mainline and less regional flights. AA seems to be expanding more DFW routes north these days than they used to. Plus, How were they able to swing such a large airplane order given their shoddy credit score and losses? Could AA merge with someone like USAirways? The massive order today with a mix of Airbus in it does seem to fit the mold of USAirways aircraft. Im just speculating but if AE is divested, then would AE be obligated to provide the same routes and daily flights that they have now with AA or would they be free to change that??? So many questions... so little answers...

RDU has been gone for well over a decade. About the same time they closed the BNA hub. So those have very little to do with the current situation. They axed STL to where it is nothing more than a typical spoke. ORD and DFW work and no need to downsize further. Until they can get more 70+ seat jets, they can't expand from DFW further north. The CASM on the 145s is terrible on long stage lengths. There are rumors abound that US Airways may make a move to buy American, but that really only became an option by forcing AA into Chapter 11 - which they aren't far from anyway.

[venture]

US Airways - Delta DCA/LGA Slot Swap Approved

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/DOT-pu....html?x=0&.v=2

Under the agreement, Delta would acquire 132 slot pairs at LaGuardia from US Airways and US Airways would acquire from Delta 42 slot pairs at Reagan National and the rights to operate additional daily service to Sao Paulo, Brazil in 2015, and Delta would pay US Airways $66.5 million in cash. In addition, the airlines will divest 16 slot pairs at LaGuardia and eight slot pairs at Reagan National to airlines with limited or no service at those airports. The completion of the transaction is subject to certain closing conditions, including government and regulatory approvals. A slot pair is the authority to operate one takeoff and one landing.

So what to take from this...
- OKC needs to get on the phone to Delta to try to land one of the LGA slots, but probably very little hope since Delta already has previously outlined what markets they are going to serve - mostly all well east of the Mississippi.
- We need to get US Airways back for any hope to get nonstop flights to National as they will not be firmly in control, not that they aren't already, of the airport.
- Need to watch and see what airlines land the 16 pairs from LGA (8 daily flights to/from) and DCA (4 daily flights). I would imagine Spirit and JetBlue are in the lead to get the LGA slots. Southwest, United, and American aren't going to be able to get close to them - especially Southwest now that they own AirTran. The DCA slots have a bit more flexibility, especially if they can get approved for perimeter exemptions (LGA doesn't have them) so Alaska could come into play for them to the west coast.

At the end of the day, this probably doesn't do anything for OKC except ensure that we will never have a nonstop flight to DCA and make it very hard to get into LGA.

[SkyWestOKC]

Some updates on frequencies.

OKC-Houston Hobby on Southwest will bump back up to 4x from 3x daily beginning in JAN12. Normally they reduce to 3x during Nov/Dec. And return to 4x the rest of the year. Business as usual.

The Frontier increase to 4x daily to Denver appears to be a mistake that was filed. False alarm. But we do maintain mainline service through the end of the schedule.

Not too much else to note. Been quiet.

[venture]

Hopefully Frontier can hang in there. It was interesting to find out that US Airways was handing it to Southwest in Philadelphia (as well as Alaska in Seattle) and is causing them to cancel several markets and a good number of flights. Just goes to show, the great giant is able to be fought back.

[brianinok]

Assuming Frontier sticks with the OKC market, what are the chances that we get a non-stop to Milwaukee at some point?

[SkyWestOKC]

Frontier will remain in the OKC market for the foreseeable future. They are filling seats and recently just upgraded one flight to mainline. Milwaukee probably won't happen, there just simply isn't any demand for that market. Kansas City is more plausible, but would face stiff competition from Southwest.

Also, heard today from a friend at Eagle in DFW, that the rumor mill has it that OKC-LAX would upgrade to mainline (MD80). Pure rumor mill stuff though, to be taken as a grain of salt or less. Would be nice though if it were true.

[SkyWestOKC]

US Airways - Delta DCA/LGA Slot Swap Approved

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/DOT-pu....html?x=0&.v=2


(...)

At the end of the day, this probably doesn't do anything for OKC except ensure that we will never have a nonstop flight to DCA and make it very hard to get into LGA.

http://newsok.com/vacationers-keep-o...financial-news

According to this article, OKC has at least been on the phone with airlines about LGA. The good news is Delta got more slots at LGA, and Delta has been paying OKC more attention than usual this year. So there is certainly a chance we may see something to LGA. I don't know how high of a chance that is, but it certainly should not be ruled out.

More frequency updates:

American seems to have loaded a pretty significant ORD (Chicago O'hare) cut, which includes OKC dropping to 4x flights a day from 5x starting in March 2012. We aren't the only ones getting a frequency cut, there are about 15 other cities.

Continental is dropping to 7x flights in March from 9x, but I'm not paying too much attention to it because it might have to do with just the merger and trading frequencies between the Continental and United operating certificates. So, in effect a "virtual" cut, yet flying isn't changing. Just switching between Pre-Merger United and Pre-merger Continental.

[venture]

Smells like some ERJs getting parked at Eagle or something and that is resulting in a pull back, a modest one, at ORD.

Here is the thread with all the routes getting cut back: http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo....main/5215065/

[SkyWestOKC]

Well, the rumors weren't exactly true about American's OKC-LAX going mainline. But, it is increasing to 2x daily effective November 18, 2011 through the end of the schedule. Both will be operated by American Eagle CRJ-700 aircraft.

Schedule as follows

OKC-LAX
7:00am-8:20am CRJ-700 AA*3708
2:30pm-3:40pm CRJ-700 AA*3798
LAX-OKC
9:05am-1:55pm CRJ-700 AA*3799
7:10pm-11:55pm CRJ-700 AA*3707

[OUman]

So now we have three daily between OKC and LAX? 1 by UAX Skywest and two-to-be by Eagle?

[SkyWestOKC]

Correct. In fact, if UA keeps the current schedule, for about 2 weeks in December we will be 2x UA* and 2x AA*. Other than that, 2x AA* and 1x UA*.

Impressive schedule to California, 4 daily flights. 3 to LAX and 1 to SFO. Very good for a market our size, similar markets and even a few larger markets don't have this many frequencies to the west coast.

[venture]

So the latest changes from the a.net thread for OKC...(some already mentioned here)

AA LAX-OKC DEC 1.0>2 JAN 1.0>2 FEB 1.0>3 MAR 1.0>2 APR 1.0>2
AA ORD-OKC DEC 5>4 JAN 5>4
CO IAH-OKC OCT 4>6 NOV 7>8 DEC 7>8 JAN 7>8 FEB 7>9 MAR 7>8 APR 7>8
DL DTW-OKC JAN 3>2.0

Source: http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo....main/5221599/

How it reads...
Airline - Route - Month - Previous Number of Daily Flights (on average) bookable > New Number of Daily Flights (on average) bookable

The Continental numbers are weird since it is mainly just swapping between flights operated by CO and those operated by UA (United)...or at least coded under them. So for the IAH (Houston) route, it is like no change except for equipment being used.

That brings in another point, this report doesn't show aircraft type changes...just frequency changes.

[damonsmuz]

Wishfull thinking post here: But, what would we have to see in order for OKC to get service to Seattle ? I see Alaska Airlines has equipment down here, how often are they bringing places to OKC to get service? Why not put some bodies on board and get some revenue if they fly here enough ? Could they get AA to do ground handling since they're part of the "One World"?

[SkyWestOKC]

Right now the OKC-SEA local market has about 180 passengers per day (avg), which averages out to 90 each way. The market just really can't support 130-ish seats per day each way yet, even though connections are available from SEA. It's entirely possible to see this service in the future, with the way Boeing and the aviation sector as a whole is growing in OKC. But right now, I just can't see it happen.

Alaska could sell seats on these flights, but you have to factor in the cost to pay for 3 flight attendants, extra fuel for the added weight, the cost to overnight 5 crewmembers downtown, and the associated costs for the ground handling contract (whether it be AA or DL). That cost can be calculated, but it would be hard to sell enough seats with the lead-time given for these maintenance ferries. At best there is about a 3-4 week notice before a plane will be pulled from the schedule. The exact date and location of that airplane when it needs to be sent to MX isn't really known until a week or so out.

All this for maybe 8 round trips per month at best. Quite simply isn't worth the effort at this point in time. Now, when the market grows enough to support daily service, it would be no problem to do any of this, because with daily service, you can place the airplanes into the mix seamlessly, because there is a flight operating each day. Just comes down to positioning.

Possible: yes. Possible in today's market: No. Possible within 5 years: yes.

[CCOKC]

Thanks for those numbers SkyWest, I was curious about that. I flew back from Seattle on Sunday on Frontier with a stop in Denver. It is not an exaggeration to say that over half of our plane from Seattle to Denver was on our flight to OKC. Of course this was all of the cruise traffic coming home and I guess Oklahomans love to cruise based on how many Okies I met on our ship last week.

[venture]

Thanks for those numbers SkyWest, I was curious about that. I flew back from Seattle on Sunday on Frontier with a stop in Denver. It is not an exaggeration to say that over half of our plane from Seattle to Denver was on our flight to OKC. Of course this was all of the cruise traffic coming home and I guess Oklahomans love to cruise based on how many Okies I met on our ship last week.

It would be interesting to see how the market would do with an LCC like Frontier (F9) would do operating the route vs Alaska. F9 operates SEA to DEN as well as Milwaukee and the focus city at Kansas City. It isn't really a shock that F9 is getting beat up a bit by Southwest in Denver, though Southwest is likely attacking them at a loss of revenue to buy business, so looking at OKC as another focus city might not be a bad thing. Florida did flounder from here, but I really think that has to do with lack of brand awareness - which the airport authority needs to work on. However, it probably isn't in the cards right now until we see more of an uptick in passenger numbers. Alaska though would have the added benefit to provide connections to the NW and Alaska through Seattle that would enable the service to be more successful.

Going forward what we might see, which I've probably hit on this a few (thousand) times already... LOL ...

Codes: AA - American, DL - Delta, F9 - Frontier, WN - Southwest/AirTran, and UA - United/Continental, Pax - Passengers, ms - Market Share, lf - Airline with lowest fares

Top 30 O&D Markets from OKC (number is daily flights)

Houston, TX: 3 x WN; 9 x UA -- No real expansion needed here. Could see UA pull back down in # of flights for larger gauge of aircraft, but not sure if sacrifice on frequency would please biz pax.
Denver, CO: 3 x F9, 3 x F9, and 5 x UA -- Tapped out. Could see F9 or WN pull back in this market. WN has 40% ms, but F9 is lf leader and 27% ms. UA is just UA. lol
Las Vegas, NV: 2 x WN -- Pretty low number of options for the market size. WN controls market, but routes most people through PHX or LAS. They could probably manage to go to 3x day.
New York, NY: 1x UA -- Under served with only one 50-seat RJ a day. UA could take this to 2x into EWR (Newark), or DL could go 1x into LGA (LaGuardia), or DL/AA go 1x into JFK. This market could probably support 3-4 flights a day if done correctly.
Chicago, IL: 4x AA, 5x UA -- Decent service. Would be nice to get mainline back on this route, but it has been gone for almost a decade now. WN could jump in on the market, but they rather shuttle people through MCI and STL to get here.
Phoenix, AZ: 2x WN -- WN has pulled this route back after US Airways left the market. Route probably has the right amount of capacity on it though to meet O&D demand.
Dallas, TX: 7x AA, 5x WN -- Pretty bloated in O&D service, but most traffic is connecting. OKC is also a stop over for DEN-DAL service due to the Wright. Could see WN pull this back to 4 flights a day when the Wright expires. No other real changes that I can see happening.
Baltimore, MD: 1x WN -- Only one flight a day is pretty low based on O&D, could go to two flights a day and help connectivity to the nation's capital and Mid Atlantic even more. Might be a possibility with the AirTran merger and use of the 717 on the route.
Orlando, FL: No nonstop service -- Largest market with no nonstop service. We've seen Frontier fail. Delta fail. Southwest fail. Allegiant pullout before starting. Something has to give in this market. I could see WN try again, if they really wanted to, and make it work. 717 aircraft could help with that. Otherwise, we would have to look at Allegiant to help us out here.
Los Angeles, CA: 2x AA, 1x UA -- Can't complain...level of service is great. See no reason to modify going forward. DL might considering becoming a player here, but I wouldn't bet much on it.
Atlanta, GA: 5x DL -- Fort Widget is stuck with 5 flights a day on DL, but now 2 mainline flights. I feel we have a very high chance of seeing WN launch 2x on the route post-AirTran integration and DL upgrading to all mainline in response. This market will only grow. The one fly in the ointment here is that WN really doesn't have the ability to grow much outside the current AirTran operation since they are capped on gate space and already at max utilization.
St. Louis, MO: 2x WN -- Gone are the days of TWA 5x a day. American has completely abandoned the hub, now it is only a spoke in its network, and Southwest hasn't shown any interesting in increasing flights. Pretty flight options here. O&D is a little low for flights offered.
Washington, DC: 1x UA -- One flight a day. That's it. UA doesn't even lead in ms or lf categories (AA does). This market can grow. However, we have 2 maybe 3 options. UA could go to 2x a day. F9 could land a DCA slot and add OKC. US Airways could look to adding 1x a day to OKC in addition to entering the market. I'm not better on any right now though.
San Antonio, TX: No service -- 2nd largest O&D market with no service. It has been tried twice before, but the operators fell on their face. WN is in the best position to do this, but why when they can move people through Dallas. Still someone probably could make this work, with the right fares, at 1 to 2x a day on a 50-70 seat aircraft (RJ or prop).
San Diego, CA: No service -- Last tried by ExpressJet with their branded experiment. It did alright and it could probably handle 1 flight a day if someone wanted to.
Seattle, WA: No service -- Q4 saw pax numbers fall on this route, but one flight a day could work if priced/timed/connected correctly. Alaska would be the main play here, Frontier a close second, then WN.
Kansas City, MO: 2x WN -- Service has come down a bit by WN. Decent market, but most pax connect to other markets. Probably good enough for now. If WN pulls back more, F9 could move in.
San Francisco, CA: 1x UA -- Single flight is appropriate for the market right now. If we see a LCC enter, O&D could go up...but I like the options right now.
Salt Lake City, UT: 3x DL -- Obviously a lot of service for low O&D, this is mainly a connecting point. Don't see much change at all.
Sacramento, CA: No service -- Tried before, could work again with the right fare/aircraft mix. Maybe once a day though. No operator really jumps out as an option though, but Alaska an Frontier could be options.
Austin, TX: No service -- Like some of the others, tried and didn't work out very well. The Dell connection isn't enough to keep it full, but the passengers are there. WN is biggest, but yeah...read above. Don't see many options here for service.
Philadelphia, PA: No service -- Hasn't been offered from OKC nonstop for awhile, if ever. US Airways is obviously the candidate here and could make it work with 2x a day and provide a ton of NE and European connections.
Tampa, FL: No service - Same deal as Orlando.
Santa Ana, CA: No service -- Probably never going to happen, so just moving on. LOL
New Orleans, LA: No service -- This market could work with 1 flight a day. It would likely have to be an RJ or prop though. No stand out targets.
Portland, OR: No service - Low O&D (~90), but could be a good option for Alaska to go with Seattle. However, they don't even do that in Dallas or Austin.
Detroit, MI: 3x DL -- Low O&D, but Delta's (formerly Northwest) 2nd largest hub behind Fort Widget. No change.
Nashville, TN: No service -- Can't recall, but probably had service on American when it was a hub back in the 90s and on Great Plains via Tulsa (I think?). I am kinda shocked WN hasn't tried 1x a day on this route, as it would open up the SE USA more, but yeah that DAL thing. Don't see anyone that would make it happen.
Ontario/San Bernardino, CA: No service -- Tried before, probably could work...but right now just need to focus on building LAX traffic.
Minneapolis, MN: -- 3x DL -- Same deal as Detroit and service to the Number 3 hub likely won't change any. If service ever did get pulled back, Sun Country *might* be an option, but that is a massive long shot.

[venture]

To give the full view of the Q4 O&D data...tried to make a clearer view and posted it: http://www.storm-scope.com/other/okc_q4_od.htm

Green highlighted rows are markets served nonstop.

[SkyWestOKC]

July passenger numbers.

Near 3% growth on both enplanements and deplanements. No complaints there. Slow and steady growth. Just passed the 1 million mark for enplanements and deplanements on the year respectively.

http://www.flyokc.com/statistics/July%20Enplanement.pdf