Tropical Weather Discussion 2011

[venture]

The Atlantic Tropical Season officially starts June 1st and runs through November. We'll be using this thread to discuss the activity that is to come in the Atlantic basin. Should any system start moving its way towards a specific inland region, we'll likely move that discussion to the monthly severe weather thread. This thread is meant as a resource and will be updated when needed. Do not use the thread for emergency planning for the protection of life and property.

Majority of the information provided here from the NHC: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/



Atlantic Visible Satellite


Atlantic Infrared Satellite - Colored


Long Range Forecast Models
COD Forecast Model Page
Florida State Experimental Cyclone Forecast Page
NOGAPS

[venture]

Welcome to the first day of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Outlook from NHC:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH. THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 11...6...AND 2...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2011 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME_______PRONUNCIATION
ARLENE ------------- AR LEEN
BRET ------------- BRET
CINDY ------------- SIN- DEE
DON ------------- DAHN
EMILY ------------- EH- MIH LEE
FRANKLIN ------------- FRANK- LIN
GERT ------------- GERT
HARVEY ------------- HAR- VEE
IRENE ------------- EYE REEN-
JOSE ------------- HO ZAY-
KATIA ------------- KA TEE- AH
LEE ------------- LEE
MARIA ------------- MUH REE- UH
NATE ------------- NAIT
OPHELIA ------------- O FEEL- YA
PHILIPPE ------------- FEE LEEP
RINA ------------- REE- NUH
SEAN ------------- SHAWN
TAMMY ------------- TAM- EE
VINCE ------------- VINSS
WHITNEY ------------- WHIT- NEE


THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 2 AM...8 AM...2 PM...AND 8 PM EDT. AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE 1 AM...7 AM...1 PM...AND 7 PM EST.

A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE UPDATES ...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION... AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES ...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUAT1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. SIGN UP FOR PRODUCT UPDATES BY EMAIL AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/SIGNUP.SHTML...IN ALL LOWER CASE. YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT WITH US ON FACEBOOK AT http://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATI...CANECENTER.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

[venture]

No real hope for now of a heat buster from the tropics for us. There is a potential a system to get organized in the Western Caribbean that, if it forms, would be forecast to track either North or Northeast.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN BECOMING A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CENTER. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD
SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND
JAMAICA AS THE LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[venture]

System in the Western Caribbean is getting a bit better organized. NHC has increased the chance of things becoming a Depression to 40% now. Models are completely split all over the place on where this system goes should it form. Below is the NHC discussion on the "Spaghetti" Model Plot.

GFDL has the system in the Central gulf by June 10th with 61 kt winds (65 kts would be hurricane). Looking at the model spread, I would almost favor a movement to the NNW into the Gulf instead of the track to the NE.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE ONLY
SLOWLY DECREASING...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE
DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WINDS IN
THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BRIEFLY BECOME SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Thunder]

I hope it goes through the gulf and hit a bullseye on us and miraculously get stuck over us for days.

[BG918]

I hope it goes through the gulf and hit a bullseye on us and miraculously get stuck over us for days.

I wouldn't mind the rain but don't want flooding. Remnants of tropical systems are more welcome in July and August.

[venture]

Updated discussion from NHC today. The model spread is almost identical to yesterday, so no need to repost. There is a general favoring of moving the system into the Gulf.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN IS MOVING SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE CENTER. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[venture]

The Evening Discussion on Arlene which formed this afternoon.

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

WHILE THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF
ARLENE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...THERE
HAS BEEN NO FURTHER INCREASE IN ITS ORGANIZATION. DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED SINCE 0000 UTC...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
TO IMPINGE ON THE CYCLONE...AND UW CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATE
ABOUT 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING ARLENE. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
AND SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW AN OPPORTUNITY FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SLOWER REDUCTION OF THE WESTERLY
SHEAR COULD LIMIT ITS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

ARLENE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295/6. THE
STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BUILDS EASTWARD.
SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT ARLENE COULD TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO DUE TO THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SUGGESTS THIS
POSSIBILITY AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS.

GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION OF ARLENE...ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...AS IMPACTS COULD BE FELT OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 21.4N 94.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 21.8N 95.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 22.0N 96.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 21.9N 97.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 21.7N 98.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 02/0000Z 21.3N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

[venture]

TD2 formed up off the coast of Florida today, but going the wrong direction for us.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
500 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATING THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS FOUND A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING
DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WERE MEASURED BY THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON BOARD
THE PLANE...THESE OBSERVATIONS WERE FLAGGED AS QUESTIONABLE. PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 44 KT WHICH WOULD
NORMALLY INDICATE A SYSTEM OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...
THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS RELATIVELY WEAK...AND IN THIS
CASE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY NOT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE
AS MUCH AS TYPICALLY OCCURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30
KT. THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING
WITH SOME DRIER AIR JUST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LGEM AND
INTENSITY CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. NONE OF THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW
THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE.

INITIAL MOTION IS A SOUTHWARD DRIFT. STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS THE SYSTEM IS
SITUATED IN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND THIS...ALONG WITH A
WEAK TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...SHOULD INDUCE A GENERAL
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
RATHER CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND TO THE LATEST ECMWF TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 27.5N 78.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 27.4N 78.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 28.2N 77.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 29.0N 77.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 30.4N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 32.0N 73.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 34.0N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 36.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

[venture]

Upgraded to Tropical Storm Bret already.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BRET INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS...BECOMES THE SECOND TROPICAL
STORM OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 78.1W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 145 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST. BRET IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND
LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BRET COULD PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

SURF...LOCALLY HIGH SURF CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG NORTHERN
AND WESTERN FACING BEACHES IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH
TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

[Bunty]

I hope it goes through the gulf and hit a bullseye on us and miraculously get stuck over us for days.

Oh, yeah, the Great Flood of 1986, caused by a fall tropical storm, was something else. Some people were scared to death that water couldn't be let out fast enough from Keystone Dam by Tulsa to keep the water from going over the top. But it didn't get that bad. But at least one or two bridges over the Cimarron River washed away.

[BG918]

Oh, yeah, the Great Flood of 1986, caused by a fall tropical storm, was something else. Some people were scared to death that water couldn't be let out fast enough from Keystone Dam by Tulsa to keep the water from going over the top. But it didn't get that bad. But at least one or two bridges over the Cimarron River washed away.

Keystone Dam released 310,000 cfs (cubic feet per second) during that flood; all gates open. Typical volume in the Arkansas at Tulsa is 10,000 cfs. By contrast, the highest cfs ever recorded on the Oklahoma River in OKC was just under 2,000 in '07.

[venture]

Keystone Dam released 310,000 cfs (cubic feet per second) during that flood; all gates open. Typical volume in the Arkansas at Tulsa is 10,000 cfs. By contrast, the highest cfs ever recorded on the Oklahoma River in OKC was just under 2,000 in '07.

Hmm...maybe that's what we need to make the North Canadian/Oklahoma and Canadian rivers actually look like real rivers. You know, the kind with water and without nicely landscaped banks. LOL

[venture]

Opps...Missed Cindy forming yesterday.

TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
500 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011

SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THAT CINDY HAS BEEN
TRYING TO FORM AN EYEWALL. A CLEAR SPOT HAS BEEN APPARENT IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NEVER WRAPPED
AROUND IT ENOUGH TO CALL IT AN EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...AND A RECENT CIRA
AMSU ESTIMATE WAS 49 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 50 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/24. CINDY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE MAIN BAND OF THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND STEER CINDY GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD FOR 36 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION.

CINDY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO COLD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN
ABOUT 24 HR AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 72 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 42.3N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 44.5N 41.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 47.9N 36.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 23/0600Z 51.6N 29.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/1800Z 55.0N 22.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[Thunder]

You missed Cindy? I feel less safe now. lol

[venture]

Not much new today.

Atlantic
TD Bret - last advisory issued, its done.
TS Cindy - Still a weak tropical storm but quickly going extratropical as it is moving through colder waters.

Pacific
Hurricane Dora - continues to spin down south of Cabo. Should continue to go NW and die out early next week. Probably won't see much, if any moisture swing back this way.

So what potential is out there?
One area of interest is just east of the Windward Islands. Not chance for it to really get going any time soon, just bring some rain and wind to the Caribbean islands. NOGAPS is out on its own, for the most part, and does eventually start to develop the low towards the end of the weekend once it passes north of Hispaniola. It takes the system NW through the Bahamas and just off the Florida coast near Daytona Beach in 6 days. None of the other major models are showing this solution right now, but just putting it out there.

[ou48A]

Maybe some good news?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...190_model.html

[bretthexum]

Maybe some good news?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...190_model.html

Yeah I saw that. It's heading the right way at least!

[venture]

Maybe some good news?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...190_model.html

Unfortunately all of today's model runs have completely dropped this solution, which was mostly just something they latched on to yesterday. The biggest issue for anything coming up from the Gulf would be the upper high parked over us. We would need it to move off to the east a bit to help get anything over us.

[venture]

Hope...maybe.



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF EXTREME WESTERN CUBA
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[venture]

In reference to the above system, the model spread is very wide with intensity.

GFDL - landfall in SW Louisiana as a weak Tropical Storm.
HWRF - Landfall in Southern TX as a weak Hurricane.

Everything in between from a weak surface low to a hurricane is current projected...so we can't say for certainty that anything will happen. Landfall does appear to be anywhere from 3 to 4 days out.

[venture]

Hope is increasing, but models are either keeping the system well south or dissipating very quickly as it approaches.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND RADAR
DATA FROM MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT
50 MILES NORTHEAST OF CANCUN. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[venture]

TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
400 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOUND A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB. THE
MAXIMUM 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 45 KT EAST OF THE CENTER...
AND THERE WERE SEVERAL RELIABLE-LOOKING SMFR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES
OF 35 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED AS TROPICAL
STORM DON. THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS
ELONGATED...AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME REFORMATION OF THE CENTER COULD
OCCUR TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/10. DON IS SOUTH OF
A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST
THAT WITHIN 24 HR DON WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER THE STORM GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD. WHILE
THE MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE ON WHERE DON WILL REACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GFDL AND GFS ARE FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT...CLOSER TO THE HOUSTON/
GALVESTON AREA. THE UKMET/ECMWF ARE FARTHEST TO THE LEFT...CLOSER
TO THE BROWNSVILLE AREA. THE FORECAST TRACK LIES BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES AND IS CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.

DON IS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE MOST PART FORECAST LIGHT TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 72 HR. DESPITE
THIS...NONE OF THOSE MODELS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF
THE STORM...AND NEITHER DOES THE GFDL. THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND HWRF
MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO REACH 55-65 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN
TEXAS...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 48 HR
INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS WELL BEFORE LANDFALL...AND DON COULD GET
STRONGER THAN THIS BETWEEN 48-72 HR.

WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS COAST TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 22.2N 87.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 23.1N 88.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 24.5N 90.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 25.8N 92.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 27.1N 94.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 29.0N 99.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1800Z 31.0N 103.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[venture]

New Discussion for Advisory 2

TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
1000 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW THAT IS
EXPANDING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER HAS DIMINISHED BUT THERE IS A CYCLONICALLY
CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTH. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO CHECK THE CYCLONE AT DAYBREAK.

DON IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...ALLOWING FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER...NONE OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 48-HR OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST OF 55 KT IS BEFORE LANDFALL...AND DON COULD GAIN SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT
10 KNOTS. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES CONTROLLING THE
CURRENT MOTION OF DON IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OR EVEN BUILD WESTWARD
A LITTLE. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN
IS ANTICIPATED...AND DON SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ON THE SAME
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT IN QUITE AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS ONE WOULD
LIKE TO SEE...HOWEVER. SOME MODELS LIKE THE GFDL AND GFDN BRING
THE CYCLONE ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WHILE OTHERS...LIKE THE
ECMWF...INDICATE A MORE WESTERLY MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO OPTIONS.

GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND UNCERTAINTIES... A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS COAST AT
THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 22.8N 88.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 23.6N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 25.0N 91.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 26.2N 93.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 27.5N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 29.5N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

[Thunder]

This is okay. Even though the core will be going the wrong way, the overall system is still huge....pulling in the moisture....and all that swirling clouds should cover us and be giving us rain. Right?