Oklahoma City's future skyline

[G.Walker]

^^^I only think two on the list is actually realistic, and that is a 30-35 convention hotel, and a American Fidelity skyscraper.

[Pete]

Didn't MidFirst announce they were building a new headquarters elsewhere in north OKC?

No.

After a detailed rendering of a large building near Broadway Extension surfaced a couple of years ago, everyone speculated it must be MidFirst. But that proved just to be rumors.

Jeff Records (CEO) is an investor in the Thunder and used to have his offices downtown. It also sounds pretty definite MidFirst is going to put it's name on the OKC Arena.

And finally, they are the second largest bank in Oklahoma, very well capitalized and growing rapidly. They may choose to build elsewhere but I think it's only a matter of time before they have to do something.

[Pete]

I should have added to my list of possibilities:

• SandRidge builts new 50-story tower
• Continental out-grows old Devon building and builds 40-story tower
• Large company relocates to OKC and builds 40-story tower

[king183]

No.

After a detailed rendering of a large building near Broadway Extension surfaced a couple of years ago, everyone speculated it must be MidFirst. But that proved just to be rumors.

Jeff Records (CEO) is an investor in the Thunder and used to have his offices downtown. It also sounds pretty definite MidFirst is going to put it's name on the OKC Arena.

And finally, they are the second largest bank in Oklahoma, very well capitalized and growing rapidly. They may choose to build elsewhere but I think it's only a matter of time before they have to do something.

Thanks, Pete. That's what I was thinking of. Good to know they are, therefore, still a realistic contender for a new downtown location.

[Pete]

As a point of comparison, let's look to Charlotte for what can happen after a huge building is added to the skyline.

When the 870 foot BofA Plaza was finished in 1992 (Devon will be 850), Charlotte had five buildings over 30 floors -- exactly the same as OKC before Devon. Previously, their tallest building was 588 feet as opposed to ours (Chase) at 500.

Since BofA Plaza opened Charlotte has added 10 (!) buildings of 25 floors or more including 47, 50 and 54.


Another parallel: in 1990 Charlotte's MSA was about 1.16 million; in 2010 OKC's is about 1.25 million.

[BoulderSooner]

As a point of comparison, let's look to Charlotte for what can happen after a huge building is added to the skyline.

When the 870 foot BofA Plaza was finished in 1992 (Devon will be 850), Charlotte had five buildings over 30 floors -- exactly the same as OKC before Devon. Previously, their tallest building was 588 feet as opposed to ours (Chase) at 500.

Since BofA Plaza opened Charlotte has added 10 (!) buildings of 25 floors or more including 47, 50 and 54.


Another parallel: in 1990 Charlotte's MSA was about 1.16 million; in 2010 OKC's is about 1.25 million.

that is a great comp ... if starting in 2012 we add a 25 story building every 2 years for the next 20 everyone will be amazed .. and our downtown will grow by miles

[SOONER8693]

I'd like to get some of what you all are smokin.

[stlokc]

So the comps between OKC today and Charlotte 20 years ago are similiar. What did Charlotte do to enable this growth? Did the city actively pursue specific companies? (I know they are a huge banking center) What did they offer in the way of incentives? They aren't that far from Atlanta, the hub of the southeast (similiar to Dallas being a hub of our part of the country). Has our chamber/city government taken a look at what was involved to make that growth happen? It's very intriguing to me, because I have been to Charlotte and, while it's very pleasant, it doesn't seem light-years ahead of OKC.

[jmarkross]

So the comps between OKC today and Charlotte 20 years ago are similiar. What did Charlotte do to enable this growth? Did the city actively pursue specific companies? (I know they are a huge banking center) What did they offer in the way of incentives? They aren't that far from Atlanta, the hub of the southeast (similiar to Dallas being a hub of our part of the country). Has our chamber/city government taken a look at what was involved to make that growth happen? It's very intriguing to me, because I have been to Charlotte and, while it's very pleasant, it doesn't seem light-years ahead of OKC.

It IS a remarkably beautiful state.

[dmoor82]

I'd like to get some of what you all are smokin.

^^Ha,some of that fantasy dank!

[Pete]

One huge and obvious difference is that Charlotte is home to Bank of America, the largest financial company in the U.S. and the 4th largest of any type. It's more than 10 times larger than OKC's largest private employers, Devon & CHK. The growth of Charlotte paralleled B of A's growth, as they acquired tons of other companies during the financial melt-down and consolidated most of them to North Carolina. Charlotte has 8 Fortune 500 companies and OKC & Tulsa only have two each.

In addition to the huge economic impact of BofA, I think Charlotte just emerged as one of the great second-tier up-and-coming American communities, as it was seen as an alternative to places like Atlanta, Miami and other eastern cities.

There has long been the pattern of these next-big-thing communities in the U.S.: Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, Denver, Jacksonville, Tampa, Orlando, Austin, Portland, Seattle, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Nashville, Salt Lake City... They've all taken a turn in making the jump from third-tier to second-tier and beyond. It's because the population shifts towards warmer, nicer areas that still have a decent cost of living and ease of life but enough size to offer good amenities.

So, what cities are next? Dallas, Atlanta, Houston, Phoenix and others that were once considered the hot places are now suffering from the same problems that drove so many transplants to them: over-population, terrible traffic, high cost of living, lower quality of life. Who will be the next Charlotte or Austin?

There are some good comeback stories in Pittsburgh and several other rust-belt towns... And places like Indianapolis and Kansas City have done well. But they are not growing as rapidly as all the boom towns mentioned and it's hard to imagine they ever will. The trend has always been southern and western.

Who is a better candidate than Oklahoma City?

Yes, Oklahoma is not the most progressive place and yes, our local legislature is backwards and embarrassing... But, again, Charlotte was seen in generally the same light and in some ways it was worse off, with it's roots in the confederacy and the tobacco industry.

I'm not saying Austin and Charlotte and Dallas aren't going to continue to grow, perhaps at even faster rates. I'm just saying Americans (and large companies and entrepreneurs) are always on the look-out for the next hot town and it's hard to make a better case than OKC -- especially since all of the recent progress has been made without truly explosive population growth. That could be in the immediate future and that's when a massively expanded skyline becomes a real possibility.

[G.Walker]

Charlotte is a major financial banking centre, a majority of the skyscrapers recently built in Charlotte were either developed or financed by Bank of America, Wachovia, or Wells Fargo

Out of the current top ten tallest skyscrapers in Charlotte, 6 were built by either Bank of America or Wells Fargo

[dmoor82]

just imagine if OKC would have beaten out Indy way back when!Should a big F500 company relocate to OKC it would do wonders!

[BDK]

If we're piling on the Charlotte comparisons, the Hornets played their first season in Charlotte in '88-'89 in the period leading up to their economic growth. I still remember Larry Johnson and Muggsy Bogues playing on that team in the early '90s. National visibility resulting from the team may be a small but real factor.

[KayneMo]

As a point of comparison, let's look to Charlotte for what can happen after a huge building is added to the skyline.

When the 870 foot BofA Plaza was finished in 1992 (Devon will be 850), Charlotte had five buildings over 30 floors -- exactly the same as OKC before Devon. Previously, their tallest building was 588 feet as opposed to ours (Chase) at 500.

Since BofA Plaza opened Charlotte has added 10 (!) buildings of 25 floors or more including 47, 50 and 54.


Another parallel: in 1990 Charlotte's MSA was about 1.16 million; in 2010 OKC's is about 1.25 million.

Those are some awesome parallels! Kind of creepy too.... lol.

[benman]

One huge and obvious difference is that Charlotte is home to Bank of America, the largest financial company in the U.S. and the 4th largest of any type. It's more than 10 times larger than OKC's largest private employers, Devon & CHK. The growth of Charlotte paralleled B of A's growth, as they acquired tons of other companies during the financial melt-down and consolidated most of them to North Carolina. Charlotte has 8 Fortune 500 companies and OKC & Tulsa only have two each.

In addition to the huge economic impact of BofA, I think Charlotte just emerged as one of the great second-tier up-and-coming American communities, as it was seen as an alternative to places like Atlanta, Miami and other eastern cities.

There has long been the pattern of these next-big-thing communities in the U.S.: Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, Denver, Jacksonville, Tampa, Orlando, Austin, Portland, Seattle, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Nashville, Salt Lake City... They've all taken a turn in making the jump from third-tier to second-tier and beyond. It's because the population shifts towards warmer, nicer areas that still have a decent cost of living and ease of life but enough size to offer good amenities.

So, what cities are next? Dallas, Atlanta, Houston, Phoenix and others that were once considered the hot places are now suffering from the same problems that drove so many transplants to them: over-population, terrible traffic, high cost of living, lower quality of life. Who will be the next Charlotte or Austin?

There are some good comeback stories in Pittsburgh and several other rust-belt towns... And places like Indianapolis and Kansas City have done well. But they are not growing as rapidly as all the boom towns mentioned and it's hard to imagine they ever will. The trend has always been southern and western.

Who is a better candidate than Oklahoma City?

Yes, Oklahoma is not the most progressive place and yes, our local legislature is backwards and embarrassing... But, again, Charlotte was seen in generally the same light and in some ways it was worse off, with it's roots in the confederacy and the tobacco industry.

I'm not saying Austin and Charlotte and Dallas aren't going to continue to grow, perhaps at even faster rates. I'm just saying Americans (and large companies and entrepreneurs) are always on the look-out for the next hot town and it's hard to make a better case than OKC -- especially since all of the recent progress has been made without truly explosive population growth. That could be in the immediate future and that's when a massively expanded skyline becomes a real possibility.

Well put, Pete. I completely agree about population moving this way. Its a fact that the population is trending more southwest and theres a much bigger desire to live in the southern U.S.

The up and coming generation is larger than the baby boomers who contributed to the booming economy and population growth we have seen in past years. People are for sure going to get tired of the traffic, cost of living, etc. in some of these boom cities we are seeing now. Dallas has had extreme growth, but once people realize it is out of hand I think OKC will be a front runner for roughly the same quality of life without all the troubles. It should be very interesting to watch.

Times might be tough now (and might even get worse) but I really believe such a large up and coming generation is going to drive the economy to levels we are all used to. OKC will be poised to benefit from all this excitement. The construction industry is down and out, but now might be the time to dive into it and get all your ducks in a line before things really take off.

[HOT ROD]

well said benman,

First To Market! Capitalizes.

[stlokc]

I am in love with Pete's and BenMan's optimism. Really I am. But I have to admit, at this point, I share GWalker's skepticism. Big projects require big commitments, especially in this economy, and Pete's post about the city's largest employers is most instructive. Only two are in any position to build in the next ten years, and despite rumors and "love of the city," what hard info do we have on American Fidelity or MidFirst? I personally think we might wind up ruing the day if American Fidelity ever leaves 23rd and Classen, because that would leave a terrible hole in a vibrant inner city neighborhood, and MidFirst is even more tenuous, it seems.

I just see a lot of "the world is moving southwest" and "OKC makes a case for a Tier-2 city" and that is really vague. Feels like wishful thinking.

As far as these 40-story condo dreams, don't forget OKC is a town where it's hard to fill a collection of townhomes in Deep Deuce because people think they are too expensive. Who are the 500 heavy hitters who are going to fill a 40-story condo building? Pablum like "people want to be in a thriving downtown" also sounds like wishful thinking.

The best bet for anything beyond a hotel and American Fidelity is to recruit an out-of-state HQ. How many companies of that caliber really up and move their entire HQ? One a year in the whole country? Even fewer in this economy?

Are there really lots of small offices clamoring for some of that space "if only we had more contiguous Class A space?" Or are the small offices building ranch-house buildings on Memorial Road?


As to the B of A comparison re: Charlotte, is our best bet spinoffs in oil and gas? Maybe. Maybe. But I'll believe it when I see it. Hopefully I'm wrong. Hopefully there are huge under-the-radar negotiations going on as we speak.

[stlokc]

So my post is a little bit of a downer. Let me reiterate once again that I yearn to be proven wrong.

[stlokc]

Let me make one other observation. A healthy downtown does not require massive numbers of skyscrapers. The emerging creative cluster at 9th and Broadway is every bit as nice a turn-of-events as a huge skyscraper. Where I do see growth in inner OKC is creative infill of smaller buildings throughout MidTown. I could easily see biotech and medical spinoffs wanting locations between the health center and St. Anthony's. I could see more conversions of old warehouses in Automobile Alley. Hopefully the Mercy site will spur development of four and five story apartment projects throughout that area. With street-level retail. If that whole area became gentrified and built out with projects for smaller users that create thriving, walkable streetscapes, that would actually be healthier for the city than a couple of 50 story behemoths. And that really is doable in this decade.

[ljbab728]

and MidFirst is even more tenuous, it seems.

Why would you say that? Do you have some inside information about problems with MidFirst?

[stlokc]

No. I don't know a thing about MidFirst. I'm only saying that the fact that Jeff Records is an investor in the Thunder and has a growing bank doesn't mean that he's on the verge of going downtown. I'm not saying he's not. It's just kind of a leap to connect "growing bank" with "building downtown." It feels like more wishful thinking. Have they ever stated publicly that they would like to be downtown? Have they made statements about scouting building sites? Pete says "He's got to do something at some point." Do we know this is true? In the 21st century, you can grow your employee numbers through work-at-home arrangements, farming people to existing locations, etc. Again, I don't know any more than anybody. I just think a lot of us (and sometimes myself) jump to conclusions when we don't really know the facts of the matter. Some of us assume that downtown officing is the ultimate goal "if only the right pieces were in place." Building downtown is not the primary motivation for everyone's business decisions. Aubrey builds and builds on Western. He could have made the plunge downtown when Devon did years ago. He didn't. It doesntvmean he doesn't support the city. I have no idea what Jeff Records' motivations are. None of us do. Unless someone knows something they aren't saying.

[ljbab728]

No. I don't know a thing about MidFirst. I'm only saying that the fact that Jeff Records is an investor in the Thunder and has a growing bank doesn't mean that he's on the verge of going downtown. I'm not saying he's not. It's just kind of a leap to connect "growing bank" with "building downtown." It feels like more wishful thinking. Have they ever stated publicly that they would like to be downtown? Have they made statements about scouting building sites? Pete says "He's got to do something at some point." Do we know this is true? In the 21st century, you can grow your employee numbers through work-at-home arrangements, farming people to existing locations, etc. Again, I don't know any more than anybody. I just think a lot of us (and sometimes myself) jump to conclusions when we don't really know the facts of the matter. Some of us assume that downtown officing is the ultimate goal "if only the right pieces were in place." Building downtown is not the primary motivation for everyone's business decisions. Aubrey builds and builds on Western. He could have made the plunge downtown when Devon did years ago. He didn't. It doesntvmean he doesn't support the city. I have no idea what Jeff Records' motivations are. None of us do. Unless someone knows something they aren't saying.

That may be true but it doesn't justify saying that Midfirst is more tenuous than American Fidelity. Any new tower construction in the downtown area could be classified as tenuous until it happens.

[stlokc]

Exactly JibJab. It's all tenuous. That's why I think these threads get way, way, way out in front of reality. But it is fun to dream.

[Pete]

stlokc, the whole point of this thread is to dream and let our imagine run a little wild. My comments aren't a prediction of what I think will happen; just the best-case scenario to reach a vastly expanded downtown.

But they are based somewhat in reality: actual companies, growth patterns, previously stated plans, and assets. Also, I've attempted to point out how many cities have reached a tipping point and gone from growing to exploding. OKC has been humming along at about 12-14% population growth per decade but that seems to be building and when you hit 20%+, big things start to happen.

Oklahoma City is unique because it has the capacity (area for housing, plenty of land everywhere, highway infrastructure, lots of area downtown and nearby) to absorb a tremendous amount of growth. I wouldn't be surprised to see that growth rate pick up dramatically in the next 5-10 years.