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Thread: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011

  1. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011

    Little further east than what they were saying earlier. Looks like we could get lucky. Storms may fire east of OKC.

  2. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by Bostonfan View Post
    Little further east than what they were saying earlier. Looks like we could get lucky. Storms may fire east of OKC.
    That's why I said don't get hung up on the exact position. Most cases it has the storm alignment/configuration pretty close...but is off by 50-75 miles. Which could be that it is too far east, south, north, etc. RUC and NAM are further west. 06Z GFS is right on I-35.

  3. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011

    Central and NE OK getting upgraded to Moderate Risk.



    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1316
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1042 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

    AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS AND CENTRAL/EASTERN OK

    CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

    VALID 201542Z - 201645Z

    CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK...DRIVEN BY POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
    HAIL/WIND AND PERHAPS TORNADOES...WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCORPORATE
    MUCH OF EASTERN KS AND CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF OK /ROUGHLY OKC
    METRO AND I-40 NORTH/. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS...SEE THE FORTHCOMING
    DAY 1 OUTLOOK UPDATE WHICH WILL BE ISSUED BY 1630Z.

    ..GUYER.. 06/20/2011

  4. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011

    Interesting. I thought it felt a little volatile when it was so warm and windy so early this AM.

  5. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011

    New Outlook...

    ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
    UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING FROM CURRENT POSITION SE CO NEWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO SRN NEB BY 12Z TUE. 60-70KT 500MB JET MAX WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG ASCENT/DIVERGENCE SPREADING NEWD FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS KS INTO NEB THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW OVER W-CENTRAL KS WILL MOVE SLOWLY NNEWD INTO SRN NEB. THE DRY LINE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SWD THRU FAR WRN OK/SWRN TX WILL SHIFT EWD BY MID AFTERNOON TO EXTEND ON A N/S AXIS VICINITY THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

    VERY STRONG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF DRY LINE WILL WRAP NWWD THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO N OF SURFACE LOW INTO CENTRAL NEB.

    THE STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT COUPLED WITH THE POST FRONTAL MOIST NLY FLOW WRN KS THIS AM HAS GENERATED ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.


    BY MID AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP TO SUPPORT AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH ALONG THE DRY LINE AND IN THE VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT REGION TO THE N/NE OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NEB.

    THE STRONGLY SHEARED PROFILES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER ERN NEB COUPLED WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO AOA 2000 J/KG EXPECTED TO SUPPORT TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TORNADOES GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.

    DOWN THE DRY LINE SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP AS THE CAP BREAKS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. BY THAT TIME MLCAPES WILL HAVE CLIMBED TO AOA 2500 J/KG SWD TO THE OK/TX BORDER WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL JET MAX AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL ALONG WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. IT NOW APPEARS COVERAGE OF BOTH THE HAIL AND WIND WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO UPGRADE THE RISK TO MDT AS FAR S AS THE OKC AREA .
    THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES GIVEN THE 50-60 KT OF SHEAR. FURTHER S INTO NCENTRAL TX THE EXPECTED COVERAGE WILL BE LESS BUT THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.

    UPSCALE ORGANIZATION OF ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS SPREAD INTO IA/MO.

  6. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011

    I hope this will be a fun day. I've been waiting every day lately and nothing.

  7. #132

    Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011

    We certainly don't the damage this can cause though!

  8. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011

    Norman has a decent time line up now on when to expect the storms...


  9. #134

    Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011

    Yeah it looks like a decent day is going to shape up. Not many, if any tornadoes, but do not let your guard down with EF-0-1 equivalent straight line winds possible as well as HUGE hail.

    Venture when do you think you will open up your chat? Later this afternoon?

  10. #135

    Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011

    After reading that it sounds like hail and wind is main threat, with isolated tornadoes possible ? Would tornadoes that form big large or long lived ?

  11. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011



    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1320
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0134 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

    AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND OK

    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

    VALID 201834Z - 202030Z

    INCIPIENT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY AROUND
    MID AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL KS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
    OK...AND A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED BY AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

    AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CONVECTION...LIKELY JUST ABOVE AN ERODING
    CAP VIA IMPLIED LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...HAS OCCURRED EARLY
    THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH-SOUTH BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL KS/NORTH-CENTRAL
    OK COINCIDENT WITH A DRY LINE/SURFACE TROUGH DEMARCATED MOIST AXIS.
    FURTHERMORE...A GRADUALLY INCREASING CU FIELD HAS ALSO BEEN RECENTLY
    NOTED WITHIN THE HOTTER/DEEPLY MIXED AIR NEAR/WEST OF THE DRYLINE.
    SPECIAL 18Z OBSERVED RAOBS FROM TOPEKA KS/NORMAN OK STILL REFLECT A
    SUBSTANTIAL CAP AROUND 700-750 MB...BUT CONSIDERABLE
    MOISTENING/COOLING HAS OCCURRED BELOW THE CAP IN EACH CASE SINCE
    12Z.

    AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
    SHIFTS ENE AND GRADUALLY TAKES ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND
    CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION...AT LEAST SCATTERED
    SURFACE BASED CONVECTION SHOULD DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THROUGH
    MID/LATE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL KS/NORTH-CENTRAL
    OK. VERY STRONG/BUT GRADUALLY BACKING FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
    SUPERCELLS WITHIN A VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE AND MODERATE TO STRONGLY
    UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. INITIAL MODE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
    WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE A HOT BOUNDARY LAYER/RELATIVELY HIGH
    TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL TEND TO CURB THE RISK...A TORNADO
    THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED
    PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY...WITH A VEER-BACK-VEER PATTERN
    NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS/OBSERVATIONAL DERIVED WINDS...IMPLIES A
    CONGEALING/MORE LINEAR MODE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A MARKEDLY
    INCREASING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE
    RATES/WATER LOADING.

    ..GUYER.. 06/20/2011


    ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

  12. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011

    Watch will be issued shortly. You can join us in the Live Chat at http://www.storm-scope.com



    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1324
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0321 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

    AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX

    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

    VALID 202021Z - 202145Z

    AS A SUPPLEMENT TO EARLIER MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1320...VISIBLE
    SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST HOUR REFLECTS INCREASING HIGH BASED
    CU ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM WEST-CENTRAL OK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TX NEAR
    THE ABILENE AREA. AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO
    OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND REMAINING CINH WANES...IT SEEMS LIKELY
    THAT AT LEAST SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION WILL INITIATE/INCREASE
    THROUGH THE 21Z-23Z TIMEFRAME. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY
    FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK...WITH A WATCH ALSO
    POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE
    ISOLATED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED. AN INITIAL SUPERCELLULAR
    LARGE HAIL/SOME TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST ESPECIALLY ACROSS
    OK...BEFORE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT LIKELY EVOLVES THROUGH EARLY
    EVENING.

    ..GUYER.. 06/20/2011

  13. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011

    Ww 525 severe tstm ok tx 202045z - 210400z
    axis..55 statute miles east and west of line..
    25ne pnc/ponca city ok/ - 45w sep/stephenville tx/ ..aviation coords.. 50nm e/w /60se ict - 49ese abi/ hail surface and aloft..3.5 inches. Wind gusts..70 knots.
    Max tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24030.

  14. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011

    This is a PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch. These are exceptionally rare (last one in OK was 2006ish...and only 3rd one this year).



    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 525
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    345 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

    MUCH OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
    MUCH OF NORTHWEST TEXAS

    EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
    1100 PM CDT.

    ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

    WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
    WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH LIKELY
    WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL
    HAIL TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
    ISOLATED TORNADOES

    THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
    STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF
    PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 45 MILES WEST OF STEPHENVILLE TEXAS. FOR
    A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
    OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

    REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
    FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
    AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
    THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
    AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
    DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 523...WW 524...

    DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE ON WRN
    EDGE OF WATCH BY 22Z. STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE
    AVAILABLE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE UNSEASONABLY
    STRONG UPPER TROUGH . SUPERCELLS WILL BE INITIAL MODE BUT QUICKLY
    EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWS. VERY LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH A
    POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY BOTH THE
    SUPERCELLS AND THE MORE LINEAR MODE THAT EVOLVES BY THIS EVENING. IN
    ADDITION BRIEF TORNADOS ARE POSSIBLE WITH BOTH MODES

    AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
    TO 3.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
    KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
    MOTION VECTOR 24030.


    PROBABILITY TABLE:
    PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 20%
    PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 05%
    PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 90%
    PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 80%
    PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 90%
    PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 70%
    PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

    &&
    ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
    MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 3.5
    MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 70
    MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 550
    MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24030
    PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : YES

  15. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011

    Please tell us we will have another round tomorrow. Maybe a better one?

  16. #141

    Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by Thunder View Post
    Please tell us we will have another round tomorrow. Maybe a better one?

    You're an odd lil' duck at times. But here's some ugliness from north of us last night to tide you over. Call it Rains, Trains and Running Pains.

    http://news.yahoo.com/video/us-15749...dwest-25695965

  17. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011

    Omg omg omg awesome tornadoes!!! Wowowowowowowowowow!!!!!!!

  18. #143

    Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011

    Change your shorts now, Thunder.

  19. #144

    Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011

    Wheres the{mild]cold front we were supposed to get?
    I guess a 4 degree difference constitutes a cold front lol.

  20. #145

    Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011

    Back to our typical summer pattern...looks like Oklahoma will be hot and dry for at least the next week into the holiday weekend.

  21. #146

    Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011

    Is there any sign of any tropical activity that might move into the northern or northwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico?

    It looks like it’s going to take several tropical systems to break the back of the drought in much of the south and southern plains.
    This drought is a historical weather event that is not getting enough attention IMHO.

  22. #147

    Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by Achilleslastand View Post
    Wheres the{mild]cold front we were supposed to get?
    I guess a 4 degree difference constitutes a cold front lol.
    That was a back door cold front. It didn't make it to your back door. The high 70's and 80's it produced in northeastern Oklahoma for highs were nice while it lasted for a day.

  23. #148

    Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by ou48A View Post
    Is there any sign of any tropical activity that might move into the northern or northwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico?
    Nothing right now. It has been unusually quiet so far in the tropics. Usually there has at least been one or two tropical storms in the Gulf or Caribbean by the end of June.

    We've been complaining about our drought in Oklahoma but Texas is in a much more dire situation, especially as we head into our hot and dry season in the Southern Plains.

  24. #149

    Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011


  25. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by ou48A View Post
    Its going in the wrong direction!!!!! >_<

    How much rain did we get this morning?

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