Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011

[venture]

...quick update on nrn ok mcs...

Another watch will be needed to the east of severe mcs moving toward
nern ok attm. Airmass and forcing present across ok appears
sufficient to maintain this system and recent observations from ok
mesonet and end suggest severe wind gusts are occurring along the
leading edge of the mcs outflow. Ww coordination is taking place
now.

..carbin.. 06/12/2011

[venture]

Ww 466 severe tstm ok 120535z - 121100z
axis..60 statute miles north and south of line..
50w tul/tulsa ok/ - 30s gmj/grove ok/
..aviation coords.. 50nm n/s /48w tul - 30w rzc/ hail surface and aloft..2 inches. Wind gusts..60 knots.
Max tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030.

[Thunder]

Those storms need to move southeast. :-(

[Thunder]

Lucky some southern cells coming our way. Nice gusty winds out there.

[venture]

From my blog today... http://www.storm-scope.com/


Temps will be quickly heading back into the 100+ category today across much of Central and Southern Oklahoma. Based on current conditions and forecast models, it now appears that we will see strong to severe storms break out along and ahead of a very weak cold front coming through the state today. The extreme temps today will help in busting the very strong cap in place and storms could start firing between 5 and 7 PM in/near the I-44 cooridor. SPC has issued a slight risk for today and HRRR model is also showing this convection forming. It is important to note that HRRR tends to be fairly accurate on showing storms forming, but can very easily be off by their location by 50-75 miles. Current thinking is the 14Z is a bit too south on the area of initiation.

14Z HRRR: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrcon...main=t5&wjet=1

[venture]

I found this a bit entertaining...

@ 11:30 AM SPC: Slight risk moved to cover most of the I-44 corridor including nearly all NE, Central, and SW OK...previous morning outlooks had just far Northern and Northeast OK.

@ 11:45AM from KOCO: Update from Sarah Libby -- models are backing off a bit on the severe weather, pushing the primary threat to the north. However, it's an ever-evolving situation, and we'll keep you ahead of any storms!

@ 11:55AM NWS Norman: Follows SPC's thinking and expands their slight risk area to the same locations (normally they match up, but there are plenty of times when they'll go with a different area or different risk level than what SPC puts out - especially for very local events).

Wouldn't be interested in knowing what model KOCO is looking at. HRRR is staying with it showing the front blowing up along I-44 later today. Just interesting to watch TV mets completely contradict NWS. Some days it seems like they use the NWS forecasts that are 6-12 hours old as their own, which can cause them to always be behind of what actual current trends area.

Anywho...NWS Norman noon HWO:

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.p...-FLUS44-HWOOUN

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA... AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM PONCA CITY... TO WEATHERFORD... TO QUANAH TEXAS.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF STILLWATER... THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO
AREA... LAWTON... ADA... VERNON... AND WICHITA FALLS.

TIMING...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM 5 PM
TO 2 AM.

IMPACTS...THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
OF 60 TO 70 MPH. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR HAIL THE SIZE OF
GOLFBALLS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE POST-MIDNIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT... LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AT MIDDAY... WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY
EVENING... THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA... TO NEAR THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA... TO NEAR
STILLWATER. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION IN
PLACE... STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT... AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL ACT IN CONCERT TO SUPPORT THE
FORMATION OF AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE INITIAL COVERAGE OF
STORMS MAY BE LIMITED... THE STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO LARGER
CLUSTERS AND PROGRESS EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DURING THE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AT LEAST INITIALLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT... WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
HOWEVER... AS THE STORMS DEVELOP PRONOUNCED OUTFLOWS... THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY JUN 15.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...60 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

[blangtang]

The storms are gonna be near Lawton, or Tulsa?

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1219
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN-SWRN OK / WRN N-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 142036Z - 142200Z

SCATTERED STORM INITIATION/DEVELOPMENT MOST LIKELY BY 22-00Z.
DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE MICROBURSTS WILL BE A THREAT OVER THE
ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL LARGE HAIL THREAT
POSSIBLE IN CNTRL-NERN OK. A WW WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED
FOR THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A MID LEVEL VORT LOBE--
ASSOCIATED WITH A CNTRL HIGH PLAINS S/WV TROUGH--IS OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE AS OF 20Z...WITH IT PROGRESSING EWD INTO CNTRL OK BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ARCING FROM ERN KS SWWD INTO WRN
OK/NW TX WITH THE DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN.
VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW AN AGITATED FIELD OF ACCAS DEVELOPING
OVER MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH ANVIL SPROUTS BEING
GENERATED FROM THE MOST VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE OKC METRO.
SURFACE TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE 90S INTO THE LOWER 100S
AS STRONG HEATING CONTINUES TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE CAP AS DEWPOINTS
HOLD IN THE 52-58 RANGE SW TO THE 58-66 RANGE NE E OF THE DRYLINE.
LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TREND TOWARDS
EARLIER SCTD STORM INITIATION...PERHAPS MOST LIKELY IN THE 22-23Z
TIMEFRAME.

AS VERY STEEP LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...PW/S NEAR 1 INCH ARE YIELDING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS /AOA 1500 J/KG MLCAPE PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/. INCREASING
MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. THIS
WOULD INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A HIGH-BASED SUPERCELL OR TWO. THE
MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLD SEVERE
MICROBURSTS...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL
CNTRL-NERN OK.

..SMITH.. 06/14/2011

[venture]

A lot of rapid CU growth along the cold front coming into the I-44 corridor. HRRR highlights severe storms should rapidly form around 6PM and move south through the state for the rest of the evening.

[venture]

Urgent - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm watch number 476
nws storm prediction center norman ok
530 pm cdt tue jun 14 2011

the nws storm prediction center has issued a severe thunderstorm watch for portions of

southwest...central...and northeast oklahoma
western north texas

effective this tuesday afternoon from 530 pm until midnight cdt.

Hail to 2 inches in diameter...thunderstorm wind gusts to 70 mph...and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles west southwest of wichita falls texas to 40 miles northwest of grove oklahoma. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou6).

Remember...a severe thunderstorm watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.

Other watch information...continue...ww 475...

Discussion...scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop soon along a cold front across ok...and along the dryline over western north tx. This activity will spread east-northeastward across the watch area. Thermodynamic parameters appear favorable for organized multicell or supercell storms capable of damaging winds and hail.

Aviation...a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030.


Probability table:
Prob of 2 or more tornadoes : 20%
prob of 1 or more strong /f2-f5/ tornadoes : 05%
prob of 10 or more severe wind events : 50%
prob of 1 or more wind events >= 65 knots : 30%
prob of 10 or more severe hail events : 50%
prob of 1 or more hail events >= 2 inches : 20%
prob of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events : 90%

&&
attribute table:
Max hail /inches/ : 2.0
max wind gusts surface /knots/ : 60
max tops /x 100 feet/ : 500
mean storm motion vector /degrees and knots/ : 25030
particularly dangerous situation : No

[Thunder]

There are some sprinkles, but I am not having any hope, because the cold front is too close and it will quickly pass on through. Its a good thing I watered the lawn after I mowed today.

[Thunder]

Spoke too soon. :-O

Nice storm cell decided to backbuild and change movement toward me. :-D

[OKCisOK4me]

My mom said golf ball sized hair around NW 63rd & May. Over here at NW 23rd & Meridian we had just pea sized hail. But, there were big fat drops of rain that turned into a downpour for about 5-10 minutes. Sunny and dry now.

[bandnerd]

Nothing on MacArthur and NW Expressway. At least not at my house. Could have used a sprinkle or two.

[venture]

Power is finally back here. Some pretty significant tree and fence damage and minor to moderate roof damage in this part of Norman. Lost one large tree and the fence. Roof has shingles missing from a couple areas. One large area about 4-5 ft wide opened enough to where I had water leaking in to the house. Unfortunately can't do an insurance claim on it...for one its pretty minor to risk having insurance rates jump. So I get to learn how not to fall off the roof and repair it myself. LOL Should be interesting.

Anywho. Peak of the storm was very intense. Winds were probably easy 80 mph or higher. Had two major bursts of wind. One period lasted a couple minutes before any precip started. Then rain started with small hail. Hail increased to golf balls which destroyed a lot of vegetation. The hail portion lasted a good 5-10 minutes with bursts of wind 70-80 mph. Shocked we didn't lose more trees, but nearly every lot has at least one down.

[Dustin]

Integris got golf balls.

[ou48A]

I’m not sure of the exact location but Gary England said that several people saw Tornado in Norman. According to Gary one person said that it was about 40 yards wide.

There are a few small tree branches and stockade fences down near my home.
Our power came back on at around 9pm. This is when having underground utilities really helps.
I can still hear the power generators at the new Hospital in NW Norman
I caught 1.35 inches of very welcome rain at my house. I was unable to accurately measure the perception that fell in the form of hail. The hail covered the ground. The storm obliterated my tomatoes and squash but it sounds like we made out better than many others.

[ljbab728]

Integris got golf balls.

Same where I live near 63rd and Meridian.

[Thunder]

Power is finally back here. Some pretty significant tree and fence damage and minor to moderate roof damage in this part of Norman. Lost one large tree and the fence. Roof has shingles missing from a couple areas. One large area about 4-5 ft wide opened enough to where I had water leaking in to the house. Unfortunately can't do an insurance claim on it...for one its pretty minor to risk having insurance rates jump. So I get to learn how not to fall off the roof and repair it myself. LOL Should be interesting.

It doesn't sound like minor damages to me. Take some pictures and post on here. Call your insurance agency and inquire if filing a claim will raise the rates. I guess it just depend how long you been having the coverage with them and the amount paid since then. It was your money that you gave to them... If they used that money wisely, it should be adequate to repair your roof or provide you a whole new roof that you have always wanted without hiking the rates. So, give them a call. Mom's insurance rates did not go up one bit the last time a claim was filed for her roof. Each case is different, so do not give up hope. :-)

[Jim Kyle]

+1 to Thunder's advice to at least contact your agent. With hailstones that large and enough wind to tear shingles off, the odds are very high that your roof is totalled. In last year's storm in OKC, my house got hit with softball-sized hail. Although there was no roof damage visible to the untrained eye, it was totalled -- along with my guttering. I was lucky not to get worse damage, several neighbors lost windows and two autos next door were totalled.

[venture]

It doesn't sound like minor damages to me. Take some pictures and post on here. Call your insurance agency and inquire if filing a claim will raise the rates. I guess it just depend how long you been having the coverage with them and the amount paid since then. It was your money that you gave to them... If they used that money wisely, it should be adequate to repair your roof or provide you a whole new roof that you have always wanted without hiking the rates. So, give them a call. Mom's insurance rates did not go up one bit the last time a claim was filed for her roof. Each case is different, so do not give up hope. :-)

Unfortunately it is a bit more complicated than that. Had a claim done last Fall on the roof, but the contractor kept putting it off until Winter came around. At that point it got pushed to wait for this year, needless to say they gave up since they had internal issues and fired several of their employees. Unfortunately other contractors came in much higher than what the insurance company settled for...so yeah. Just a crappy situation. :-P

[Thunder]

That is just sad. I know how much you love a nice roof. No phone is complete without that special roof. :-(

If you are going to be doing repairs yourself (or hopefully you will be getting help), just do not fall. If you fall, we will have no one to keep us safe on here. :-(

[Jim Kyle]

Unfortunately it is a bit more complicated than that. Had a claim done last Fall on the roof, but the contractor kept putting it off until Winter came around.

Still, this was a new storm and new damage. I met with my insurance agent yesterday for our annual review of coverage, and the conversation got around to roofs and hail damage. He told me that he himself had had to replace his own roof twice within two years.

Of course, the deductible can make things really difficult. Mine last year was almost $2,000 -- which I really didn't have. Still I managed to find a way to pay it and get things fixed.

[venture]

Still, this was a new storm and new damage. I met with my insurance agent yesterday for our annual review of coverage, and the conversation got around to roofs and hail damage. He told me that he himself had had to replace his own roof twice within two years.

Of course, the deductible can make things really difficult. Mine last year was almost $2,000 -- which I really didn't have. Still I managed to find a way to pay it and get things fixed.

Yeah, never got around to getting the original claim repaired yet...so going to see if they can just amend the original claim for the additional damage. Then figure out where to pull the money from to get it down.

EDIT: Well just an update. Insurance company is doing another claim regardless since the damage was more significant than before, so we'll see what happens.

[kevinpate]

power, FINALLY back on. 15+ HOURS (we left for phone recharge and fill da belly time and it came on while we were out) This was our longest outage since Dec 07 (but thankfully not that freaking 6 day crud this time)

Lots of paint knocked off trim by hail. One tree split and part down. Garden .. RIP. Most of da lovely's recent plantings ... RIP. Deer figurine from her dearly departed momma, a small hail hole (whew)
One full night without my cpapper .... thank goodness I had a nap yesterday afternoon or else I might of put on an elmer fudd hat and gone hunting.