Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011

[earlywinegareth]

I grew up in Norman...local myth has it that Norman proper is protected by the So. Canadian River. Some kind of natural power source that forces tornadoes to veer away or dissipate. Some attributed the myth to Indians who lived in the area pre-land run days. City leaders apparently didn't buy into that and in the early '70s built tornado-safe schools to serve also as public shelters (Whittier, Longfellow, & Irving middle schools). They would herd us kids into the gym during storm drills only to have an expert come along and say that the open span of the gym wouldn't protect us after all.

[Thunder]

Del City has that myth, too. As far as I know, Del City has never been hit, except that far southwestern corner of the city during May 3rd.

[kevinpate]

I grew up in Norman...local myth has it that Norman proper is protected by the So. Canadian River. Some kind of natural power source that forces tornadoes to veer away or dissipate. Some attributed the myth to Indians who lived in the area pre-land run days. City leaders apparently didn't buy into that and in the early '70s built tornado-safe schools to serve also as public shelters (Whittier, Longfellow, & Irving middle schools). They would herd us kids into the gym during storm drills only to have an expert come along and say that the open span of the gym wouldn't protect us after all.

I've never ever bought off the big open span structure as storm shelter, but I'm quite thankful for whatever spirits stand watch along the river and Indian Hills Rd. I felt the same way growing up for the mountain spirits who protected our valley. Call me silly, call me foolish. I don't care. I know it weren't me, and it weren't my pops who caused storms to pass us by. Momma, well, she maybe had something to do with it. She's strong, crafty, and not much dares mess with her, especially not regarding her boys, not even the troublesome one (and no, that wasn't me, well, not most of the time anyhows.)

[ou48A]

If you guys have a few spare minutes today, feel free to take this survey from NSSL on the wording for tornado warnings: http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http...Astudy&h=4cc62

Appears that they could be looking at improving the language used down the road.

Good idea^

Particularly if people are above ground they would probably be better protected if they were advised by NOAA to put on as much heavy winter clothing as they can stand ,,,,, compared to pillows and other items that would be more likely to blow off of a person. The heavy clothing would stay on a person and small kids for much longer periods of time.

Rather than calling a tornado watch a particularly dangerous situation I believe it would be better understood by the public if it was called a high risk tornado watch. They should assign each watch a risk number much like the WX channels Torcon index and if possible break down the high/low risk areas within the watch.

The other day they issued a significant weather advisory for several central OK counties that said Tornadoes would be moving into central OK by a certain time. They should do this more often and be quicker to do it, but perhaps call it an area tornado advisory.

On high risk days they should use very specific language that points directly at the management of schools and businesses and do it in a way that makes management think very hard about the safety of students and employees. The TV MET’s and local media should also convey this same message. I think there is a big disconnect between the weather industry and far too many in positions of management who too often just don’t take the high end tornado events seriously or don't take the time to know what's going on.


PS I’m not on Facebook, so if anyone agrees with any of this send it to them if you wish.

[ou48A]

I grew up in Norman...local myth has it that Norman proper is protected by the So. Canadian River. Some kind of natural power source that forces tornadoes to veer away or dissipate. Some attributed the myth to Indians who lived in the area pre-land run days. City leaders apparently didn't buy into that and in the early '70s built tornado-safe schools to serve also as public shelters (Whittier, Longfellow, & Irving middle schools). They would herd us kids into the gym during storm drills only to have an expert come along and say that the open span of the gym wouldn't protect us after all.

I know what you mean
The day after MAY 3 1999 I was told this by a real estate agent. She said that because of this Norman was a safer place to live than Moore. I told her that the tornado had crossed the river before hitting Moore and then I told her that this is the same river that supposedly protects Norman.
I then ask her why the same river would protect Norman but not Moore. I reminded her that Moore has had many tornadoes over the years but I also reminded her that it is a recoded fact of history that people have died in tornadoes in Norman.

I did not dare talk about a possible heat island effect.

[venture]

I don't believe you need to be on Facebook to take the survey. It should just be a pass through link to Survey Monkey which is open to anyone.

[Thunder]

I remember during May 3rd, a neighbor suggested that we go to DCHS and use their shelter (gym). She went. We decided to just stay at home. Brother kept screaming and crying wanting to go to DCHS. At the time, I never knew about such place is so dangerous.

[silvergrove]

I grew up in Norman...local myth has it that Norman proper is protected by the So. Canadian River. Some kind of natural power source that forces tornadoes to veer away or dissipate. Some attributed the myth to Indians who lived in the area pre-land run days. City leaders apparently didn't buy into that and in the early '70s built tornado-safe schools to serve also as public shelters (Whittier, Longfellow, & Irving middle schools). They would herd us kids into the gym during storm drills only to have an expert come along and say that the open span of the gym wouldn't protect us after all.

I heard Norman is safe because that's where all the meteorology students and professors are at and the tornados are afraid of them.

[BG918]

Venture, any idea when we can expect that upper level ridge to begin to break down? It looks like it's firmly in place for at least the next 5 days.

It doesn't look like anything tropical is going to move this way any time soon either. I'll be in coastal Louisiana next weekend and will be keeping my eye on the Gulf next week though.

[venture]

Venture, any idea when we can expect that upper level ridge to begin to break down? It looks like it's firmly in place for at least the next 5 days.

It doesn't look like anything tropical is going to move this way any time soon either. I'll be in coastal Louisiana next weekend and will be keeping my eye on the Gulf next week though.

Looks like it might take another 10 days for the upper ridge to completely break down based on this morning's GFS.

[Thunder]

I know there are technology capable of breaking up storms, but is there any technology capable of breaking the heat dome?

[venture]

I know there are technology capable of breaking up storms, but is there any technology capable of breaking the heat dome?

The day that happens, is the day we've gone too far as a species on this planet.

[jn1780]

The day that happens, is the day we've gone too far as a species on this planet.

Well, you know the conspiracy theorists think the HAARP project is used to influence the weather. LOL

[venture]

Update

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
219 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011

... MAY 24, 2011 OKLAHOMA TORNADO OUTBREAK ...

...UPDATED TO SPLIT LOOKEBA-EL RENO-PIEDMONT-GUTHRIE TORNADO INTO
TWO SEPARATE TORNADOES /NOW STORMS 2 AND 3/ AND UPDATED SPECIFICS
ON TORNADO NUMBER 7...

...EVENT OVERVIEW...

STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES MOVED ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF
MAY 24TH. STORMS INITIALLY FORMED ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
QUICKLY BECAME SEVERE AS THEY MOVED NORTHEAST. SEVERAL OF THESE
STORMS PRODUCED TORNADOES ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. ANOTHER
CONCENTRATED AREA OF SEVERE STORMS MOVED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 7 AND 10 PM.

STORM 1... CANTON LAKE

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-3
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UNKNOWN
INJURIES/FATALITIES: 2/0
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 6 NW CANTON 3:15 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 5 NNW LONGDALE 3:43 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 9 MILES
WIDTH: 1/2 MILE
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 2... LOOKEBA

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-3
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 140
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/0
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 4 WSW LOOKEBA 3:30 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 4 NE LOOKEBA 3:46 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 9 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: TO BE DETERMINED
NOTE: DETERMINED TO BE A SEPARATE TORNADO FROM STORM 3 BASED ON
ANALYSIS OF GROUND SURVEY AND MOBILE RADAR OBSERVATIONS.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 3... CALUMET-EL RENO-PIEDMONT-GUTHRIE

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-5
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): GREATER THAN 210 MPH
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/9
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 4 ESE HINTON 3:50 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 4 NE GUTHRIE 5:35 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 65 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: TO BE DETERMINED
NOTE: RATING BASED ON UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA MOBILE DOPPLER RADAR
MEASUREMENTS.

STORM 4... CHICKASHA-BLANCHARD-NEWCASTLE-MOORE

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-4
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 190
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/1
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 2 SOUTH OF CHICKASHA 5:09 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 5 S WILL ROGERS AP 6:00 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 30 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 5... WASHINGTON-GOLDSBY

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-4
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 190
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 4 SW BRADLEY 5:26 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 1 NW GOLDSBY 6:05 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 27 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 6... PAYNE COUNTY

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-2
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 130
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 9 SW STILLWATER 5:50 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 3 SE STILLWATER 6:05 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 10 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 7... MCLOUD

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 110
INJURIES/FATALITIES: 1/NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 4.5 SSW MCLOUD 6:36 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 3.5 S MCLOUD 6:39 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 2 MILES
WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE: EYEWITNESS AND SURVEY INFORMATION INDICATE THIS UPDATED
TORNADO PATH. MINOR DAMAGE IN NORTHEAST CLEVELAND COUNTY WAS
LIKELY DUE TO THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 8... JOHNSTON COUNTY

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 95
INJURIES/FATALITIES: NONE/NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 1 NW RAVIA 7:30 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 2 N TISHOMINGO 7:45 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 6 MILES
WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

[Thunder]

We need rain. Maybe some thunder and lightning. A touch of hail. Sound of a tornado siren wouldn't be a bad idea...make it interesting and thrilling. Its boring around here. :-(

[ljbab728]

We need rain. Maybe some thunder and lightning. A touch of hail. Sound of a tornado siren wouldn't be a bad idea...make it interesting and thrilling. Its boring around here. :-(

Yes, no, no, and no.

[Thunder]

ljbab728, what would you do if a tornado made a touchdown on top of our new growing skyscraper?

[ljbab728]

ljbab728, what would you do if a tornado made a touchdown on top of our new growing skyscraper?

I would blame you. LOL

[Thunder]

I would blame you. LOL

Don't make Jesse cry. :-(

[venture]

Going to try to bring hope to those that enjoy green gas and not giving their life savings to OG&E...

Today & Monday - Looks like some isolated storms in SE OK, with no much elsewhere.
Tuesday - May see a stray shower/storm in far NW OK, but most of the activity should be well back into the panhandle - if at all.
Wednesday - Desert.
Thursday, Friday & Saturday - Better chance for storms across NW OK down into other portions of Western OK. These are the people that need it the most right now, so hopefully it happens.

Sunday through Thursday - Grass should be entering a nice shade of brown.

Friday (17th) through Tuesday (21st) - Rain chances come up a bit, but we'll have to see. Chances would be state wide. Appears we will be transitioned into a Northwest flow during this time period with a large trough developing over the eastern US and ridge building out west. Severe risk obviously will be present. This will probably be a setup for storm complexes to move out of CO/KS into OK, which tends to mean more overnight/early morning activity versus the typical afternoon Springtime stuff.

We'll see what happens. 12 days out and the models will flip before then I'm sure. We may have a curve ball tropically, but I'll leave that for the tropics thread for now until things seem more imminent of effecting our weather here.

[UnFrSaKn]

[BG918]

Going to try to bring hope to those that enjoy green gas and not giving their life savings to OG&E...

Today & Monday - Looks like some isolated storms in SE OK, with no much elsewhere.
Tuesday - May see a stray shower/storm in far NW OK, but most of the activity should be well back into the panhandle - if at all.
Wednesday - Desert.
Thursday, Friday & Saturday - Better chance for storms across NW OK down into other portions of Western OK. These are the people that need it the most right now, so hopefully it happens.

Sunday through Thursday - Grass should be entering a nice shade of brown.

Friday (17th) through Tuesday (21st) - Rain chances come up a bit, but we'll have to see. Chances would be state wide. Appears we will be transitioned into a Northwest flow during this time period with a large trough developing over the eastern US and ridge building out west. Severe risk obviously will be present. This will probably be a setup for storm complexes to move out of CO/KS into OK, which tends to mean more overnight/early morning activity versus the typical afternoon Springtime stuff.

We'll see what happens. 12 days out and the models will flip before then I'm sure. We may have a curve ball tropically, but I'll leave that for the tropics thread for now until things seem more imminent of effecting our weather here.

Northwest flow is a pretty typical pattern this time of year so hopefully we transition to that. Overnight/early morning lines of storms every few days with the occasional severe MCS moving south/east from Colorado and Kansas with clouds lingering in the morning/early afternoon before becoming warm and humid during the day is a "typical" early-mid June pattern in Oklahoma. This current pattern is straight out of late July and August...

[venture]

Another tornado was added to the list...

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UNKNOWN
INJURIES/FATALITIES: 0/0
EVENT LOCATION AND TIME: 2 SW FAIRVIEW 3:47 PM TO 3:51 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): UNKNOWN
WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE: THIS TORNADO PRODUCED NO KNOWN DAMAGE BUT WAS OBSERVED BY
SPOTTERS. THE LOCATION IS ESTIMATED.

[venture]

Potential for a couple isolated storms over night Thursday into Friday morning in the Central third of OK is remaining consistent now in the models. Won't expect a lot right now, but anything would be helpful at this point. Severe risk looks like it will be present, mainly damaging wind with a hail threat. Some chances for storms down the road a bit, but will wait for tonight's run to make another post about it.

Also today, if you smell smoke outside there is a very good chance it is from the Arizona fires. The smoke plume from those fires is now moving through the TX Panhandle and far western OK.

[venture]

Going to take a look down the road to see if there is any chance of the heat dome finally break down and moving away for a bit. As usual, forecast reliability is pretty low as we go further out in the forecast...so don't come after me when something doesn't happen. LOL

Today through Friday AM - Dry. Hot. Gross. Ugh. Also, smoke from AZ will be hanging overhead so it will be hazy with poor air quality.

Friday PM into Monday AM - Chance of storms will exist along a cold front that will drop into Oklahoma to meet its demise. Best chances for widespread rain will be Friday evening into Saturday morning across North Central, Northwest, and West Central Oklahoma. Chance decrease through the period, but remain highest (well, as high as it can be in this setup) in Northwest OK. This will not be a consistent rainfall. More or less isolated storms popping up at various times during this forecast period.

Monday (13th) PM through Friday (17th) - Dry. Boring. yeah.

Saturday (18th) - May have a storm complex form to the north and head into OK. Right now forecasts are putting out heavy/widespread rain. Don't buy it yet. Upper air pattern seems pretty zonal, and not a NW flow which is favorable for storms this time of year. Severe risk is obviously there, but we'll see if this even continues to show up in a couple days.

Sunday (19th) - We do transition into a more classic NW flow as we get into Sunday however and seems upper winds will start to pick up quite a bit. Pattern should remain through Thursday (23rd), but winds will slow down quite a bit upstairs. Again, going out farther = lower confidence. Sunday appears to be dry, except for far western OK if a complex comes down through the panhandles.

Monday (20th) - Complex forms in KS/CO moves down into Central OK by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday (21st) - GFS is kinda crazy on precip amounts during the day on Tuesday from the complex earlier in the day (overnight). Dumps out several inches of rain...but lets at least get clouds first, then we can work on rain.

Wednesday (22nd) - Another complex forms in the CO/KS border area and dives south during the overnight/early morning hours.

Thursday (23rd) - Another complex or just left over convection from the previous complex, or new convection forming along the boundaries left over. Either way, chance of storms. Sidebar - GFS also brings a tropical system into FL/AL/MS area this day as well.

So there is some chance of rain coming up, but we'll see if it happens. Ideally, we'll get the hot stuff done now and have a decent July/August. Not holding my breath though. If GFS temperature forecasts are to be believed, we have the 90-100+ weather for another week and a halfish (or a week from Friday).