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Thread: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2011

  1. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by BG918 View Post
    T-storms beginning to form over Tulsa and points to the northeast.
    Nothing to severe in 20 minutes. Won't take long for the front to fire up down into the Metro area here soon.

    Live chat is rolling at chatokc.com for those interested.

  2. #227

    Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2011

    Northeastern Part of the state is getting hit hard by the storms right now

  3. #228

    Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2011

    Well, I am finally in the air towards OKC. Been stressful, but it looks like I had nothing to worry about. Storms look huge from up here.

  4. #229

  5. #230

    Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2011


  6. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2011

    Bulletin - eas activation requested
    tornado warning
    national weather service tulsa ok
    542 pm cdt fri apr 22 2011

    the national weather service in tulsa has issued a

    * tornado warning for...
    Northern okfuskee county in east central oklahoma
    southern creek county in northeast oklahoma
    western okmulgee county in northeast oklahoma

    * until 630 pm cdt

    * at 539 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
    tornado was located 6 miles north of paden...moving east at 25 mph.

    * some locations in or near the path of this storm include...welty...
    Okfuskee...slick and beggs.

    Precautionary/preparedness actions...

    If you are near the path of this storm...take cover now! If no
    underground shelter is available move to an interior room on the
    lowest floor. Mobile homes and vehicles should be abandoned for more
    substantial shelter. Avoid windows!

  7. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2011

    Sorry for the delay in info, trying to keep the chat up to date too right now.

  8. #233

    Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2011

    Well, the really good rain missed again. Maybe we will have more luck with the rest of the weekend. After that it looks dry at least until the second week of May.

  9. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2011

    Latest HRRR model run...there is hope still:

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrcon...main=t5&wjet=1

  10. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2011

    Mesoscale discussion 0527
    nws storm prediction center norman ok
    0939 pm cdt fri apr 22 2011

    areas affected...ok/wrn ar

    concerning...tornado watch 180...

    Valid 230239z - 230345z

    the severe weather threat for tornado watch 180 continues.

    Tornado watch 180 will be extended until 05z for srn and ern ok and
    nwrn ar.

    Several supercells persist across the watch area...with a few strong
    couplets from time to time. Although some boundary layer cooling is
    occurring and storms may be interfering with each other...a tornado
    or two cannot be ruled out over the next few hours given shear in
    place as latest objective analysis indicates 300-400 m2/s2 effective
    srh. In addition...large hail is likely along with heavy rain.

    ..jewell.. 04/23/2011


    attn...wfo...lzk...sgf...shv...tsa...oun...

  11. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2011

    New storms firing in SW OK are moving NE towards the Metro area...

    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
    1018 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
    SOUTHEASTERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
    SOUTHEASTERN GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
    MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
    NORTHWESTERN GARVIN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...
    NORTHEASTERN STEPHENS COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

    * UNTIL 1115 PM CDT

    * AT 1018 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
    THUNDERSTORM NEAR BRAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

    HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
    HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...
    WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

  12. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2011



    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0528
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1110 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

    AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF OK ...SERN KS...SWRN MO...NWRN AR

    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

    VALID 230410Z - 230615Z

    WE ARE MONITORING FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BEHIND EARLIER
    CONVECTION...AND AN ADDITIONAL WW COULD BE REQUIRED AT SOME POINT
    FOR MUCH OF CNTRL/NRN OK. A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS
    ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR NERN OK INTO SWRN MO/NWRN AR.

    SEVERE STORMS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF SRN OK INTO SRN MO DUE TO A
    PERSISTENT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AND PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.
    SOME CELLS ARE LEFT SPLITS...AND MAY EFFECT ADJACENT NRN COUNTIES TO
    THE ONGOING BAND OF STORMS OVER SRN OK. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR N ANY
    SPLITS WILL GO. HOWEVER...FARTHER N INTO THE COOLER AIR...MODELS
    DEVELOP CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT AS A DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP FROM
    NRN OK INTO SRN MO. WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
    AVAILABLE...STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL.
    ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCHES COULD BE NEEDED IF THE
    THREAT BECOMES WIDESPREAD ENOUGH.

    ..JEWELL.. 04/23/2011

  13. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2011

    Ww 184 severe tstm ok 230435z - 231100z
    axis..35 statute miles north and south of line..
    5ne rkr/poteau ok/ - 40ssw chk/chickasha ok/
    ..aviation coords.. 30nm n/s /23sw fsm - 39nne sps/
    hail surface and aloft..2.5 inches. Wind gusts..60 knots.
    Max tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24025.



    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 184
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1135 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

    PART OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

    EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1135 PM
    UNTIL 600 AM CDT.

    SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
    ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
    WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH

    THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
    STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
    POTEAU OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CHICKASHA
    OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
    ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

    REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
    FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
    AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
    THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
    AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
    DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
    TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 180. WATCH NUMBER 180 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
    AFTER 1135 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 181...WW 182...WW 183...

    DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SRN
    OK IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WHERE THE AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE WITH
    STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
    WITH THE STRONGEST CORES INCLUDING ROTATING STORMS GIVEN THE 40-50KT
    OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

    AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
    TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
    KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
    MOTION VECTOR 24025.


    WS 0184
    PROBABILITY TABLE:
    PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 10%
    PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : <02%
    PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 30%
    PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 20%
    PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 60%
    PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30%
    PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 80%

    &&
    ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
    MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.5
    MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
    MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 550
    MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24025
    PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

  14. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2011

    Just going to post the SPC outlooks for now, don't have much time to dive into the models with it being a holiday weekend.

    Slight Risk today is south/east of a line from Altus > Hobart > El Reno > Edmond > Cushing > Tulsa > Jay. This includes all but the far northern and western OKC metro areas. With in that risk area are two different time tables and risk potentials.

    The afternoon risk area is across the southern 2 tiers of counties. This area could see conditions similar to yesterday for very large hail and damaging winds and a tornado or two. North of that, including the metro area, will be the risk for storms to develop overnight and produce large hail. These will be elevated storms so the risk of tornadoes will be extremely slim.

    SPC Day 1 Outlook - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1122 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

    VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

    ...TX/OK/AR...
    A COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS OK AND NORTHWEST AR.
    THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG HEATING
    AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST OK/NORTHEAST
    TX AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AR. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS
    WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
    SOUTHEASTWARD INTO TX/AR THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
    SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE/CAPE AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40
    KNOTS...FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS SUPPORT
    A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST OK/NORTH
    CENTRAL TX INTO CENTRAL AR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

    LATER TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
    ACROSS OK WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE
    PRESENT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED HAILSTORMS WILL EXIST TONIGHT
    ACROSS THIS REGION.
    For Easter Sunday...

    New Day 2 isn't out yet, will post once they publish it.

    SPC Day 2 Outlook - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

    Monday...

    Typical pattern to what we are use to. The slight risk area is mainly east of I-35. The risk area is south and east of a line from Pawhuska > Stillwater > Chickasha > Waurika. This would include the eastern and southern counties of the Metro area.

    SPC Day 3 Outlook - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

    DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0228 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

    VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN
    PLAINS EWD/NEWD INTO THE MID OH AND TN VALLEYS...

    ...SYNOPSIS...
    PROGRESS OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
    U.S. THIS PERIOD...AS ONE EMBEDDED SHORTER-WAVELENGTH TROUGH EJECTS
    NEWD ACROSS THE MO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES
    AND A SECOND DIGS ESEWD OUT OF THE ERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE SRN
    ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

    AT THE SURFACE...FRONTAL ZONE WHICH HAS PERSISTED FROM THE
    MID-ATLANTIC REGION WSWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS
    FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME NWD MOVEMENT OF THE
    FRONT IS FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONTAL WAVE
    SHIFTS NEWD OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

    ...ERN OK/NERN TX ENEWD ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID MS/TN/LOWER AND MID
    OH VALLEY REGION...
    RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
    THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD INCREASE/EXPAND
    THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS DIURNALLY HEATS/DESTABILIZES.

    WITH MODERATELY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT FORECAST ATOP THE
    SURFACE WARM SECTOR...EXPECT ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS TO AGAIN
    BECOME MOST INTENSE THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING -- SIMILAR TO
    PRIOR DAYS. ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY
    DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

    ATTM...THE FORECAST AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ONGOING THROUGH THE END OF
    DAY 2 AND INTO DAY 3 RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO PRECISE
    LOCATION AND DEGREE OF MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE/SEVERE THREATS.
    HOWEVER...THREAT APPEARS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
    REGION TO WARRANT CONTINUATION OF PROBABILITIES REFLECTIVE OF A
    FAIRLY ACTIVE SEVERE THREAT.
    Tuesday...

    Severe risk is limited to far SE OK, won't really go into much detail. For more information check out:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

  15. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2011

    Easter Sunday Outlook...

    Slight risk of severe weather for all of Oklahoma except for extreme NW OK and a few counties along the TX Panhandle border.

    Hatched area, or enhanced risk area, is in place from Frederick to Anadarko to Oklahoma City to Bartlesville and to the east.

    DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1227 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

    VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
    WSWWD ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEYS INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

    ...SYNOPSIS...
    LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE SWRN
    STATES TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SWLY FLOW ALOFT
    WILL PERSIST FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW
    ENGLAND.

    AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM ERN NEW ENGLAND SWWD
    THROUGH SRN PA...OH VALLEY...NRN AR AND INTO SERN OK TO CENTRAL TX
    AT 12Z SUNDAY. THE ERN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFF THE
    NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY SUNDAY...WHILE THE PA PORTION SETTLES SLOWLY
    SSEWD INTO WV...NRN VA TO DELMARVA WHERE IT SHOULD STALL SUNDAY
    AFTERNOON. THE OH VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL
    REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
    RETREAT NWD ACROSS NRN TX AND ERN OK AND MORE PROMINENTLY INTO
    CENTRAL MO TO CENTRAL IND AS A BROAD LLJ DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

    ...SRN PLAINS TO AR/SRN MO...
    STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND AR INTO SRN MO NEAR
    AND N OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER OK
    PRODUCING A SEVERE HAIL THREAT AT 12Z SUNDAY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
    STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
    FARTHER S...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SUBJECT TO AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
    BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...THOUGH CAPPING SHOULD INHIBIT
    DEVELOPMENT UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES
    SLOWLY EWD...HEIGHT FALLS/INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT FOCUSED NEAR
    AND N OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
    AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL TX AND INTO OK/AR. IN
    ADDITION TO FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...LOW-LEVEL SLYS VEERING TO WSWLY
    AT 50 KT AT MID-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
    SUPERCELLS. AS STORMS ACQUIRE ROTATION...A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE
    HAIL APPEARS LIKELY ALONG WITH THREATS FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS
    AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

    TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE SRN PLAINS TOWARD SRN
    MO SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS GREATER HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD
    EWD WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE ONSET OF DIABATIC
    COOLING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL TEND TO SUPPORT
    ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE RETREATING
    WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...SURFACE AND/OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY
    REMAIN POSSIBLE INVOF OF THE FRONT AND A SURFACE WAVE TRACKING ALONG
    IT FROM SRN OK INTO SWRN-CENTRAL MO SUNDAY NIGHT/ EARLY MONDAY
    MORNING. A STRENGTHENING LLJ ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR INTO SRN MO
    SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER/LOWER LCLS AND
    SUPPORT INCREASING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. DESPITE A
    VEERED/BACKED WINDS AT MIDLEVELS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A LINEAR MODE
    SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ACTIVITY MOVING FROM OK INTO SRN MO...THE
    AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS WILL ALSO FAVOR AN EMBEDDED TORNADO THREAT
    AFTER DARK ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK/WRN AR.

  16. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2011

    Nothing like a good ole Easter Day with kids running around for eggs and a tornado across the horizon swirling the skyline.

  17. #242

    Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2011

    Ok venture this stuff is hard on the eyes

    Still hoping for egg hunting tomorrow...Will we be washed out by noon or will these fire up later in the afternoon?

  18. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by Easy180 View Post
    Ok venture this stuff is hard on the eyes

    Still hoping for egg hunting tomorrow...Will we be washed out by noon or will these fire up later in the afternoon?
    We will see some activity tonight and into tomorrow morning and then clear out and more activity fire up in the afternoon. Not saying a total wash out for tomorrow, but there is that chance. Which most people won't really complain about this year.

  19. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2011



    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 187
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    310 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

    SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
    NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

    EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL
    1000 PM CDT.

    WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
    ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
    WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL
    HAIL TO 3.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
    ISOLATED TORNADOES

    THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
    STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH
    NORTHWEST OF BROWNWOOD TEXAS TO 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF PARIS
    TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
    WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

    REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
    FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
    AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
    THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
    AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
    DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 186...

    DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
    NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN OK WITHIN THEN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
    CONTINUED HEATING WEAKENS THE CAP. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
    PRESENT WITH CAPE VALUES OF 3000+ J/KG. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR
    WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE FROM
    THE STRONGER CELLS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

    AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
    TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
    KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
    MOTION VECTOR 25030.

  20. #245

    Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2011

    LOL, I came across this video on the internet. Did anyone here make it?


  21. #246

    Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2011

    So is the metro area still getting rain tonight,tomorrow and monday?

  22. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2011

    Storms are starting to develop in Central and NE OK. Movement will be to the NE around 30 mph. Large hail will be main threat.

  23. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2011

    Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
    severe thunderstorm warning
    national weather service norman ok
    906 pm cdt sat apr 23 2011

    the national weather service in norman has issued a

    * severe thunderstorm warning for...
    Eastern lincoln county in central oklahoma...

    * until 1000 pm cdt

    * at 906 pm cdt...national weather service radar indicated a severe
    thunderstorm near meeker...moving northeast at 35 mph.

    Hazards in the warning include...
    Hail up to the size of golfballs...

    * locations in the warning include davenport...meeker...sparks and
    stroud.

  24. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2011



    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0544
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0908 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

    AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OK

    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

    VALID 240208Z - 240345Z

    STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL
    AND ERN OK...AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR HAIL.

    LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW AN INCREASE IN ECHOES OVER E CNTRL OK IN A
    ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. 00Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED
    INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS.
    PARAMETERS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION...AND
    SEVERAL MODELS AGREE ON AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.
    THUS...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

    ..JEWELL.. 04/24/2011

  25. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2011

    Ww 191 severe tstm ok tx 240255z - 241000z axis..80 statute miles east and west of line..
    35ene bvo/bartlesville ok/ - 20ssw gyi/sherman tx/ ..aviation coords.. 70nm e/w /16sw osw - 37nne dfw/ hail surface and aloft..2.5 inches. Wind gusts..60 knots.
    Max tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035.



    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 191
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    955 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

    LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
    PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS

    EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 955 PM
    UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

    SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
    ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
    WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH

    THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
    STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST
    NORTHEAST OF BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
    SHERMAN TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
    ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

    REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
    FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
    AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
    THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
    AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
    DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 187...WW 189...WW 190...

    DISCUSSION...WITH CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING
    LOW LEVEL JET...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NWD THRU ERN HALF OF
    OK. WITH MUCAPES UPWARDS TO 2500 J/KG AND BRN SHEAR OF
    40-50KT...ELEVATED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.

    AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
    TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
    KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
    MOTION VECTOR 24035.

    Severe thunderstorm watch probabilities for ws 0191 nws storm prediction center norman ok
    0951 pm cdt sat apr 23 2011

    ws 0191
    probability table:
    Prob of 2 or more tornadoes : <05%
    prob of 1 or more strong /f2-f5/ tornadoes : <02%
    prob of 10 or more severe wind events : 20%
    prob of 1 or more wind events >= 65 knots : 10%
    prob of 10 or more severe hail events : 60%
    prob of 1 or more hail events >= 2 inches : 30%
    prob of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events : 80%

    &&
    attribute table:
    Max hail /inches/ : 2.5
    max wind gusts surface /knots/ : 60
    max tops /x 100 feet/ : 500
    mean storm motion vector /degrees and knots/ : 24035
    particularly dangerous situation : No

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