Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - March 2011

[venture]

Slight risk of severe weather has been issued for the area today (monday) due to risk of hail at or above severe limits.



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2011

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
WRN...CENTRAL AND SRN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BAND OF WLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SRN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS TO THE SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN EXTENT OF NORTH AMERICA. A MIDLEVEL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE TN VALLEY AT 12Z TODAY WILL TRACK EWD
TO AND THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. A SECOND
MIDLEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRACK SEWD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER THE PACIFIC NW...PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...AND REACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z
TUESDAY.

A STALLED FRONT WILL PERSIST FROM NRN FL WWD ALONG THE GULF COAST
TODAY. THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE
NWD THROUGH TX AS A LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL TX LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE ERN EXTENSION OF THE STALLED FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT SWD MONDAY NIGHT TOWARD CENTRAL FL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
MIDLEVEL TROUGH.

...PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL AND SRN OK...
THE AIR MASS ALONG THE RETREATING FRONT THROUGH TX AND ALONG THE DRY
LINE IN W TX IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH PEAK HEATING...
PRECLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION/TSTMS. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS IS FORECAST ACROSS OK LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD /MAINLY AFTER 29/06Z/.

A SSWLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT TO 35-45 KT FROM
WEST CENTRAL TX INTO OK IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO FALL
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH. STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING AND WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF OK BETWEEN
29/06-12Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 40-50 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.5-8 C PER KM/ WILL SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL
WITH THE STRONGER CORES. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR AND
OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE AREA FOR CONVECTION BY THE MODELS...A
SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR HAIL HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS OK.

[Dustin]

Slight risk of severe weather has been issued for the area today (monday) due to risk of hail at or above severe limits.

Yay... Hail..

[Thunder]

Yay... Hail..

It is more like for David to be the most excited, because he has been waiting for extreme hail and/or tornado to destroy his roof. He has been waiting for years to file a serious claim on his insurance policy for a glorious roof.

[venture]

Risk area was downgraded in the new update. Looks like most of the energy will go north of OK tonight, but a risk of hail still exists...just not as high as earlier.

...OK...
ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE WITH EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES FROM NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID ATLANTIC
STATES. SHALLOW COLD DOME NOW COVERS MUCH OF SRN PLAINS TOPPED BY A
DRY EML AS FAR N AS SRN KS. GULF MOISTURE IS RETURNING NWD JUST
ABOVE THE COLD DOME THRU THE SRN PLAINS AND WILL LEAD TO SUFFICIENT
ELEVATED CAPE BY TONIGHT FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS OK. IT NOW
APPEARS WITH THE NEXT S/WV CURRENTLY MOVING EWD INTO WY/NRN CO
TRACKING N OF OK AND ONLY A MODEST LOW LVL SLY FLOW TO TRANSPORT THE
GULF MOISTURE NWD INTO OK TONIGHT...THE THREAT FOR AN ELEVATED HAIL
THREAT HAS LESSENED. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF
OK...PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IS NOW LOWER
THAN EARLIER FORECASTED.