Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - March 2011

[venture]

Nothing has been confirmed with it at all, so no...doesn't count. Rarely will Oklahoma County or any other country in the Metro get credit for the first of the season.

[Thunder]

http://www.koco.com/video/27016669/detail.html

Streaming video of the destructive tornado.

Someone keep screwing with the stream, so its a bit annoying.

[venture]

Bulletin - eas activation requested
fire warning
city of altus
relayed by national weather service norman ok
555 pm cst sun feb 27 2011

the following message is being transmitted at the request of the
city of altus.

A fire warning is in effect for northern jackson county near
blair... Between county roads 204 and 207... North of county road
156. A wildfire is out of control in this area... And residents
should evacuate in a generally southerly direction.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...WRN AR...NERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 280207Z - 280300Z

00Z NAM/LATEST HRRR CONTINUE TO OFFER THE BEST GUIDANCE THIS EVENING
AND SUGGEST THAT THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION NEAR THE ADVANCING
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT WILL INDEED DEEPEN THIS EVENING. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO LARGER-SCALE ASCENT FINALLY SPREADING EWD ATOP THE MOIST
WARM SECTOR EFFECTIVELY WEAKENING INHIBITION.

EXPECT THAT ANY STORM THAT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED WILL BE EMBEDDED IN
200-400 M2/S2...HIGHEST ACROSS NE OK AND ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE CELLS WILL BECOME LINEAR QUICKLY WITH
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED BOWS/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES.
OTHERWISE...CORRIDORS OF HIGH WIND MAY EVOLVE ACROSS FAR ERN OK AND
AR LATER THIS EVENING...WITH THE SVR THREAT BACKBUILDING SWWD INTO
FAR NE TX AS WELL.

..RACY.. 02/28/2011


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

[venture]

Extended March Outlook

3/1 - Dry. Temps 50s.
3/2 - Dry. Temps 50s to low 60s.
3/3 - Dry. Temps 50s NE to 70 SW.
3/4 - Showers. Temps 50s.
3/5 - Showers eastern 1/2 of OK. Temps 40s.
3/6 - Dry. Temps 40s east to 60 SW.
3/7 - Mostly Dry. Temps 50s East to 70s SW.
3/8 - Showers/Storms Eastern 1/2 of OK. Temps 60s east to mid 70s SW.
3/9 - AM Rain/Snow Mix. Temps 40s NE to 50 SW. Morning temps, which is when precip will occur, will be below freezing except for Southern and SE OK.
3/10 - Dry. Temps 40s NE and 50s SW.
3/11 - Dry. Temps Upper 30s NE to low 50s SW.
3/12 - Dry. Temps 40s NE to low 60s West.
3/13 - Showers East. Temps 40s North to mid 60s South.
3/14 - Dry. Temps 40s.
3/15 - Storms SW, Showers East. Temps 40s NE to mid 70s SW.

[Achilleslastand]

So are we due for a wet spring or more of this drought?

[venture]

So are we due for a wet spring or more of this drought?

This should sum it up. Notice the Severe Drought area has grown significantly.

[venture]

This will be updated early this afternoon.

Severe Probabilities for Tuesday:

[OKCMallen]

This should sum it up. Notice the Severe Drought area has grown significantly.

Jeez. I need to do some watering.

[venture]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 43
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 135 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO 85 MILES SOUTH OF PARIS TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 42...

DISCUSSION...AIR MASS ALONG AND E OF N/S DRY LINE HAS DESTABILIZED
WITH MLCAPES AOA 1500 J/KG WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE
FOR SUPERCELLS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG DRY LINE AND
WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THEY
MOVE EWD. WHILE LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELL...A TORNADO
THREAT IS ALSO EXPECTED GIVEN THE STRONG MID/UPPER SHEAR ACROSS THE
AREA AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.

[Charlie40]

Any Ideas of when things will start to pick up some weatherwise for us?

[bretthexum]

Something looks to be brewing in about 9-10 days. Still way too far off to pinpoint specifics but we could have something

[Charlie40]

Cool can't wait

[venture]

Major concern today is of course the wildfires.

[venture]

Bulletin - eas activation requested
fire warning
oklahoma county emergency management
relayed by national weather service norman ok
134 pm cst fri mar 11 2011

the following message is being transmitted at the request of
oklahoma county emergency management.

A large wildfire is out of control and moving quickly north and
northeast on the west sides of harrah.

Persons located between luther road and dobbs road between northeast
10th to northeast 23rd... Are urged to evacuate. Please evacuate
north to northeast 23rd and then go either east or west out of the
area.

[Thunder]

Someone asked...

Any Ideas of when things will start to pick up some weatherwise for us?

Someone answered...

Something looks to be brewing in about 9-10 days. Still way too far off to pinpoint specifics but we could have something

Supermoon? We shall see...

[venture]

Bulletin - eas activation requested
fire warning
oklahoma county emergency management
relayed by national weather service norman ok
243 pm cst fri mar 11 2011

the following message is being transmitted at the request of
oklahoma county emergency management.

Two large wildfires are out of control and moving quickly north in
oklahoma county. One is in the harrah area...and the other in the
midwest city area.

Persons located between northeast 10th and northeast 36th and
between dobbs road and luther road are urged to evacuate.

Also...persons located between hiawassee road and henny road and
between southeast 15th and reno are urged to evacuate.


Bulletin - eas activation requested
fire warning
pottawatomie county emergency management
relayed by national weather service norman ok
246 pm cst fri mar 11 2011

the following message is being transmitted at the request of
pottawatomie county emergency management.

A large wildfire is out of control and moving quickly north and
northeast across northwest pottawatomie county.

Persons located between hardesty road and lake road and between
patterson road and stephens road... Need to evacuate. Please
evacuate to the bethel acres fire station number 2 located at the
corner of hardesty road and patterson road.

[adaniel]

I just got back from dropping off a co-worker in MWC. It seems like once we hit the Sooner Road exit on I-40, I was overwhelmed by the smell of smoke and the sky has got a hazy browness to it.

Hope you folks out east stay safe.

[Dustin]

Wow... This has not been a good day.

[Thunder]

A very busy news day. The fires was the worst that I've seen in my lifetime. I went to Harrah/Luther to check on my family, brought mom with me, then we stopped by her sister's house in Choctaw and the fires was very close, as soon we were leaving the neighborhood, a firetruck raced thru the entrance.

[venture]

Extended Outlook based on the 12Z GFS run today...

Sun 3/13 - Scattered Showers & Storms. Temps 40s North - 60s South.
Mon 3/14 - Showers/Storms East early, Dry West. Temps 50s.
Tue 3/15 - Dry. Temps 50s NE to 60s SW.
Wed 3/16 - Isolated Showers/Storms. Temps 60s.
Thu 3/17 - Slight Chance of Evening Storms. Possibly Strong. Temps 60s NE to near 80 SW.
Fri 3/18 - Showers/Storms far East & Southeast. Temps 50s north to 70 south.
Sat 3/19 - Isolated Storms Central and South. Temps 50s north to low 70s south.
Sun 3/20 - Isolated Storm or two. Temps 70s.
Mon 3/21 - Shower or storm north. Temps 60s north to mid 70s south.
Tue 3/22 - Mostly dry, chance of storm NW. Fire risk SW. Temps upper 60s and low 70s.
Wed 3/23 - Showers and storms most places, fairly dry SW with Fire risk. Temps around 50 north to near 70 south.
Thu 3/24 - Dry. Temps 50s NE to near 70 SW.
Fri 3/25 - Dry with maybe an isolated storm late. Temps 70s to near 80.
Sat 3/26 - Chance of storms increasing towards dark. Temps 60s and 70s.
Sun 3/27 - Storms, possibly heavy rain, early. Temps 50s north to 70s south.
Mon 3/28 - Dry and temps 50s to 70s.

[venture]

Weather looks to be getting much busier starting tomorrow. Fire danger will be extreme far west, still high to very high for the rest of the state. Storm chances could go up next week.

Thursday 3/17/11
Map: http://goo.gl/maps/7oe7 | NWS Norman page: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhanced.php?map=3
Extreme fire risk will exist across far western Oklahoma and the panhandle. Humidity (RH) levels will be the lowest here at 20% or less. The next tier of counties in will see RH levels in the 30s and then higher as you go east. Central OK may be able to stay in the 40s to 50s as it looks now, but we'll have to see how fast we dry out. Fire Weather Watch is up for the western two rows of counties (and the Panhandle) for tomorrow and we'll probably see at least the western-most counties upgraded to Red Flag Warnings. Conditions can change and if moisture levels drop even more, the risk will spread further east. Even with all that, we will see be at a high risk for fire weather, so caution will still be needed.

Saturday 3/19/11
Map: http://goo.gl/maps/XJHa
Storm chances will be going up, but severe risk will be pretty low still. Two areas where we may see some marginal to severe weather will be in the panhandle along the dryline or SW OK behind the warm front. There will be some higher instability here, but still nothing to get excited about. Showers/storms looks probably along the warm front from SW into NC Oklahoma, but severe risk will be pretty low in most areas.

Sunday 3/20/11
Map: http://goo.gl/maps/1Ud0
Doesn't look too bad right now. Should be mostly dry across the state, but a storm or two could fire up along the dryline in the panhandles and move into NW OK. Marginal risk for those areas.

Monday 3/21/11
Map: http://goo.gl/maps/PPIl
Dryline gets closer to the state, a storm or two could go up along it and impact western OK. Not seeing a lot of activity right now, but the risk is there for one or two storms that could go severe.

Tuesday 3/22/11 - Dryline pushes through Central OK. Some storms could be ahead of it. Extreme fire danger could return to far western OK.

Weds 3/23/11 - Mostly Dry. Very High Fire Danger Western 1/2 of OK.

Future dates to watch: 3/26 and 3/28

[venture]

Very High fire danger coming up today.

[Thunder]

One negative side to reporting this kind of weather is the bad guys keeping track and they will be out in full force implementing their plans to start fires in many different areas. :-(

This may be a busy day and be prepared to have your Soap Opera episode blocked.

[flippity]

So it looks like nothing really to worry about...I mean how much damage can hail do right?

i guess you missed out on the hailstorm last year? go to youtube and search for "oklahoma hail in pool" and see what you think after that.