Winter Weather Discussion - Jan/Feb 2011

[bretthexum]

I imagine we'll see a blizzard warning upgrade tonight. Hopefully people learned from the xmas eve storm. Stay home!

[silvergrove]

Run down of advisories...
Winter Storm Warning: WA****A

Sounds about right.

[Jesseda]

So how many iches of snow is there probably going to be in okc at 6 a.m.. I wonder if the roads will be closed by then and the interstates?

[bretthexum]

So how many iches of snow is there probably going to be in okc at 6 a.m.. I wonder if the roads will be closed by then and the interstates?

By 6 AM the storm will be in full force. Might not be a lot on the ground yet but it'll be ugly.

[venture]

Venture- how many more forecast model runs do they have time to do before tonight? I find all this so fascinating!

We have the 18Z and 00Z runs left to go today. So 2 more before midnight.

[venture]

[OKCMallen]

We have the 18Z and 00Z runs left to go today. So 2 more before midnight.

Is there a website where I can read about these different models, who runs them, the computers, etc?

[venture]

Is there a website where I can read about these different models, who runs them, the computers, etc?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

Those are the folks that run them.

[venture]

Just came over Twitter through the chat room...

cityofokc: City depts not involved in snow removal & emergency response will be closed tomorrow. #okwx [via Twitter]

[venture]

Appears NCEP/HPC is favoring GFS for the short term in handling the storm over us.

BEFORE 00Z WED...2/3 GFS TO 1/3 GEFS MEAN OR SREF MEAN

THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS/00Z ECMWF THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH ITS SLOWER SPEED CONSIDERED DOUBTFUL DUE TO WORSE INITIALIZATION OF THE EVOLVING TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE...THE ECMWF LIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE GFS TRACKING THE LOW FROM THE S. PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH IS ALSO DISCOUNTED DUE TO ITS OWN TRENDS OVER THE LAST 24 HRS AND ITS POSITION WITHIN THE LATEST SPREAD OF 12Z GUIDANCE WHICH IS ALONG ITS NORTHWESTERN EDGE. THEN ONCE THE LOW REACHES THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND...THE GFS ACCELERATES AHEAD OF MOST GUIDANCE...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH DIMINISHING CONFIDENCE DUE TO POSSIBLE INTERACTIONS WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THUS...THROUGH A PROCESS OF ELIMINATION AND CONSIDERING ITS POSITION WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES...THE RECOMMENDATION IS FOR A SOLUTION WEIGHTED TOWARD THE DETERMINISTIC GFS EARLY THEN TRANSITIONING TOWARD ENSEMBLES LATE AS UNCERTAINTY INCREASES.

[Jesseda]

to many big confusing words for me to understand.. its all greek to me

[Jesseda]

so kfor is saying okc will have 8-12 in of snow but news nine is saying maybe 4-8 inches..hmmmmm who to believe

[venture]

to many big confusing words for me to understand.. its all greek to me

Yeah. LOL Essentially they are favoring the GFS over NAM right now.

Also, Warnings are now extended for all of western and Central OK.

[sacolton]

I suppose Gov. Mary Fallin will wait until 6am to decide if State offices are closed. Last time, they waited until 10am (after the employees were already at work) to close offices.

[Thunder]

Mary Fallin declared State of the Emergency!

[sacolton]

Are you being silly, Thunder?

[OKCisOK4me]

Yeah. LOL Essentially they are favoring the GFS over NAM right now.

Also, Warnings are now extended for all of western and Central OK.

So does that mean 4-8 or 8-12? Thanks.

[Thunder]

Are you being silly, Thunder?

No, this is serious event happening right now. Tomorrow will be a nightmare and '09 Blizzard will seem like a distant tiny blimp.

LIVE WIRE http://livewire.koco.com/Event/Oklah...ter_Storm_2011 STATE OF THE EMERGENCY

MARY FALLIN, THE CITY, AND CREW SPEAKING LIVE

[venture]

So does that mean 4-8 or 8-12? Thanks.

8-12 is the primary thinking right now.

[Thunder]

This is serious weather, everyone! No joke! This will rival the Great Blizzard of '09 with real likelihood of being the worst of all time! OKC is starting to close down. Only public offices to open is the crews to work on the roads. They will only begin to plow the roads after the storm is done. DRIVING IS NOT RECOMMENDED UNLESS IN EXTREME CASE OF EMERGENCY! That means, don't go to work. Okay. Stay home, tend to your family and pets.

"If oklahomans don't have to get out tomorrow, tonight, please stay home." - Gov. Mary Fallin

[PennyQuilts]

This is serious weather, everyone! No joke! This will rival the Great Blizzard of '09 with real likelihood of being the worst of all time! OKC is starting to close down. Only public offices to open is the crews to work on the roads. They will only begin to plow the roads after the storm is done. DRIVING IS NOT RECOMMENDED UNLESS IN EXTREME CASE OF EMERGENCY! That means, don't go to work. Okay. Stay home, tend to your family and pets.

"If oklahomans don't have to get out tomorrow, tonight, please stay home." - Gov. Mary Fallin

Don't let your fish freeze, Thunder!

[Thunder]

don't let your fish freeze, thunder!

OMG I'm gonna panic!!! These are rare, Malawi's finest fish!!!

[Roadhawg]

Don't let your fish freeze, Thunder!

[Jesseda]

what lake where those fish pulled out of? lol

[Roadhawg]

Got the fixings for chili and the propane tank filled up just in case.