Winter Weather Discussion - Jan/Feb 2011

[venture]

Venture, I certainly appreciate your input but the topic of "Winter Weather Discussion - Jan 2011" isn't quite that exclusive. Maybe you should mention that to Thunder when he starts jumping up and down about the possibility of being able to go out and play in the snow. I think the effect of the weather on those of us in this area is certainly relevant to this thread. If we weren't concerned about the impact of the weather this thread wouldn't be taking place either.

I understand where you are coming from, but since you've been on this site for over a year now...you should understand the nature of these threads just fine. :-)

Now back on topic.

[ljbab728]

I understand where you are coming from, but since you've been on this site for over a year now...you should understand the nature of these threads just fine. :-)

Now back on topic.

I certainly understand the nature of the threads and have kept on topic as much as Thunder has. Again, I really appreciate your information because the weather does impact us more than just how much fun snow is.

[venture]

I have gone ahead and loaded up the live blog again for this event. Please understand that I won't be able to be in it all the time (still have to work, eat, and sleep)...but I have it running now. If it times out and closes down, I'll get it back up and going. I have linked several important twitter feeds to the chat so we can keep up-to-date information flowing. The live event also features some new features, so we'll try to make sure of it as well.

Just go to http://www.chatokc.com and the blog will come right up - since that is the only thing the page is used for. LOL

There may be some un-related twitter feeds that make it through, but I'll be working to keep those cleaned out. :-) I should have comment moderation turned off though, so please feel free to contribute or ask questions when you want.

[Matt]

With T minus 22 hours and counting until Snowlocaust 2011, I figured I'd go ahead and start the thread. Not like it really matters, since we're all gonna die anyway.

Hide yo kids, hide yo wife. . .

[venture]

06Z NAM bumped up back to around 12" for OKC proper.

[Thunder]

Chat is broken. It won't go thru what I type.

MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON DEVELOPING WINTER STORM THAT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. UNTIL THEN... MOSTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOME PATCHES OF VERY LIGHT
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. BY
TONIGHT... AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SW US
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME... A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS BRINGING
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PRETTY GOOD CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE LOCATION
AND AMOUNTS OF THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL. WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OK WHERE
4-8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED... WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER... WHILE WE HAVE NOTED THAT THE LATEST 06Z NAM DEVELOPS A
RATHER SHARP SNOWFALL GRADIENT GENERALLY NW OF I-44 IN CENTRAL
OK... WE WILL SEE IF THAT TREND PERSISTS IN OTHER MODELS AND LATER
RUNS.

WE EXPECT FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS... THE
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE THE MOST ICE WITH
SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THAT AREA WILL SHOULD ALSO HAVE THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS... BUT TIMING OF THE PHASE-CHANGES WILL BE
SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. MEANWHILE... THE PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT A FEW T-STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OK AND N-TX TONIGHT.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY... ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW COULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS AND
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES POURING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. NOT ONLY COULD THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAKE TRAVEL
HAZARDOUS... BUT DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD FOR
ANYONE CAUGHT OUT IN THE WEATHER.

ONCE THE THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES MOVE IN... WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND EVEN FALLING BELOW ZERO IN PARTS OF NORTHERN
OK... MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
FRIDAY.

[Roadhawg]

again thanks for all the updates... much appreciated.

[John1744]

I'd just like to as an assistant manager of a grocery store I'd like to thank mother nature and the meteorologists for some of the best sales we've had in the last year thanks to this event.

[venture]

Morning everyone. I'll be approving everyone for comments once someone makes their first one. After that you can post freely. Thunder you are taken care of. :-)

[OKCMallen]

When's the next update, Venture??

[bretthexum]

12Z NAM model is ridiculous with the snow totals. Easily a foot for OKC. See what the rest show now.

[Thunder]

Go to http://www.chatokc.com/ for constant update.

Latest from NAM is saying the system to go slower and stronger as it approaches. Next GFS run is coming in now.

[FritterGirl]

WOW! This is a far cry from the doom and gloom "lock up your kids" report that came out on KFOR tonight. Morgan must get kick-backs from local grocery stores for all the business he sends their way. He was predicting Christmas Eve 2009 for tomorrow morning at 6:00 a.m., with much colder temperatures. Said we'd get freezing rain/ice plus 6"-12" inches of snow with large drifts, and that I-44/Tulsa area would fare much worse. Said we could easily see the same road conditions as 2009.

That's why I like to read real, sensible, non-ratings driven weather reports here. Thanks, Venture!

[Thunder]

WOW! This is a far cry from the doom and gloom "lock up your kids" report that came out on KFOR tonight. Morgan must get kick-backs from local grocery stores for all the business he sends their way. He was predicting Christmas Eve 2009 for tomorrow morning at 6:00 a.m., with much colder temperatures. Said we'd get freezing rain/ice plus 6"-12" inches of snow with large drifts, and that I-44/Tulsa area would fare much worse. Said we could easily see the same road conditions as 2009.

That's why I like to read real, sensible, non-ratings driven weather reports here. Thanks, Venture!

Actually, everything is in agreement with Mike "Ahhhhh!" Morgan. :-)

There will be freezing rain, ice, sleet, and snow across the state. It all depends on the location. There will be a whole bunch of snow and drifts. It will rival the Blizzard of '09. Stay tuned!

[venture]

12Z NAM is showing around 10 to 18" possible across the metro. 12Z GFS appears to be well under that around 3-6 with the higher totals as you move east.

[jn1780]

Actually, everything is in agreement with Mike "Ahhhhh!" Morgan. :-)

There will be freezing rain, ice, sleet, and snow across the state. It all depends on the location. There will be a whole bunch of snow and drifts. It will rival the Blizzard of '09. Stay tuned!

The last NAM does anyway. So far it looks like we won't have that solid layer of ice like the 09 storm, but maybe equal or greater amounts of snow.

[OKCMallen]

How can we tell what sort of ice we're expecting? If it rains from 6pm tonight even until 8pm before shifting into snow, that's a lot of ice?

[bretthexum]

How can we tell what sort of ice we're expecting? If it rains from 6pm tonight even until 8pm before shifting into snow, that's a lot of ice?

From what I can see the precip won't even start until after 10 PM (at least)
I don't think we'll see much ice at all (if any)

[venture]

NWS Norman has gone 6-12" for the Metro:

[OKCMallen]

From what I can see the precip won't even start until after 10 PM (at least)
I don't think we'll see much ice at all (if any)

Ah, gotcha. The faster switch over to snow the better, obviously.

[OKCisOK4me]

I just want this crap to start after I get off work at 8pm!

[bretthexum]

Ah, gotcha. The faster switch over to snow the better, obviously.

Yeah I am actually in OKC this week for work. Moved up to Wisconsin early this year. Thought I'd get away from this crap.... nope

[venture]

Yeah I am actually in OKC this week for work. Moved up to Wisconsin early this year. Thought I'd get away from this crap.... nope

Get away from this...yer funny. LOL That's like me moving here from the Great Lakes thinking the same. :-P

[venture]

Run down of advisories...

Winter Storm Warning: GRANT, KAY, GARFIELD, NOBLE, KINGFISHER, LOGAN, PAYNE, CADDO, CANADIAN, OKLAHOMA, LINCOLN, GRADY, MCCLAIN, CLEVELAND, POTTAWATOMIE, SEMINOLE, GARVIN, ALFALFA, MAJOR, DEWEY, CUSTER, BLAINE, WA****A, HUGHES, KIOWA, COMANCHE, STEPHENS, MURRAY, PONTOTOC, AND CARTER.

Winter Weather Advisory: Harper, Woods, Ellis, Woodward, Roger Mills, Beckham, Harmon, Greer, Jackson, Tillman, Cotton, Jefferson, and Love.

[OKCMallen]

Venture- how many more forecast model runs do they have time to do before tonight? I find all this so fascinating!