Winter Weather Discussion - Jan/Feb 2011

[venture]

Updated the Monday evening map to reflect GFS for the most part. This is pretty close to what Norman has now with their recent update, but i'm siding with a bit warmer air and more rain. http://goo.gl/maps/EzFX

Highlights
- Light Snow, maybe a dusting to an inch in the panhandle.
- Flurries or Light Snow NW OK north of a line from Ponca City to Hennessey to Cheyenne.
- Freezing Rain/Sleet/Snow/Rain Mix south of the previous area but north of a line from Vinita - Skiatook - Cushing - Edmond - Yukon - Anadarko - Cache - Frederick.
- Mostly Rain south of that area including OKC proper, Tulsa, Norman, and Lawton.

Of course this is pretty specific and the track of the storm can definitely swing these around. So don't get too serious about them just yet.

[rod4soonrs]

Rick Mitchell on Twitter just posted prayers needed, what's that supposed to mean?

[Thunder]

Rick Mitchell on Twitter just posted prayers needed, what's that supposed to mean?

It's going to be a major event. It is his calm way when compared to Mike "Ahhhhh!" Morgan.

[rod4soonrs]

All want to lean to worse case, gfs is probobly the way it will play out. Just a hype fest as usual

[venture]

All want to lean to worse case, gfs is probobly the way it will play out. Just a hype fest as usual

That's my thinking. NAM is just being too far out there. This definitely is smelling more like a system that will get the hype but fall far short.

New Map for 12AM to 6AM on Tuesday: http://goo.gl/maps/qAV9

This is essentially what GFS has, I didn't really want to invest much into the massive precip amounts of the NAM for this period. GFS is a bit warmer, which may not be the case. Regardless, all that will do is spare the eastern part of the state from an ice storm. Both models due indicate two bands of precip, which is why there is a drop in precip amounts in the area just west of the metro.

Added in 6AM to 6PM forecast here: http://goo.gl/maps/3Cz3

Transition to mostly snow for the entire state and the system will exit pretty fast. Snow amounts will be fairly light except in the NE where 6+ could fall.

[riverrat077]

Norman AFD 2:32PM 1/30/2011
DISCUSSION

POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING COMBINATION OF WIND... COLD AND WINTER PRECIP NOW
APPEARS IMMINENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WE
WILL BE ISSUING A PDS VERSION OF THE WSW BY 3 PM WHICH WILL EXPAND
THE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO THE REST OF WCENTRAL/SW OK AND OUR TX
ZONES... UPGRADE CENTRAL AND NCENTRAL OK TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR IMPACTS...
AND ADD A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR NW OK WHERE COMPUTED WIND CHILLS ARE
-15 OR LESS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. PARTS OF THE AREA EVENTUALLY COULD NEED AN UPGRADE TO
BLIZZARD WARNING BY TUESDAY MORNING.

CONDITIONS LOOK OKAY FOR THE MOST PART BETWEEN NOW AND LATE
MONDAY... ALTHOUGH PARTS OF N AND CENTRAL OK MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A
LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE WILL HANDLE
THAT WITH AN ADVISORY IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE THE EMPHASIS AT THIS TIME
IS ON GETTING EVERYONE TO TAKE PROPER STEPS NOW BY OBTAINING
NECESSARY PROVISIONS... AND NOT PLANNING ON GOING ANYWHERE FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AT SOME
POINT MONDAY NIGHT AS N-NE WINDS INCREASE AND COLD AIR GETS COLDER
AND DEEPER. PRECIP IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
00-06Z AND ESPECIALLY 06-12Z MONDAY NIGHT. TRANSITION FROM LIQUID TO
FREEZING TO FROZEN SHOULD BE FAIRLY RAPID GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION... ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY PERSIST INTO TUE MORNING SE
PARTS OF AREA. LIMITED ICE ACCRETION WILL BE OFFSET BY STRONG
WINDS... WHICH MAY BRING DOWN EVEN LIGHTLY-COATED TREES AND POWER
LINES. FOCUS WILL BE LESS ON SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS AND MORE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR PARALYZING WINTER STORM CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW AND
BLOWING/DRIFTING ALONG WITH LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS. THAT BEING
SAID... WE CURRENTLY PAINT A BROAD BAND OF 4-8 INCHES CENTERED
ROUGHLY LAWTON-OKC-STILLWATER WITH 2-5 OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WATCH AREA. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE BLOWING/DRIFTING... WE
MAY NEVER REALLY KNOW. OBVIOUS ANALOG WOULD BE XMAS EVE 2009... AND
FOR SOME AREAS THIS MAY BE AS BAD OR WORSE THAN THAT ONE.

SNOW TAPERS OFF LATE TUE BUT WIND AND BLOWING/DRIFTING TO CONTINUE
AS TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS DROP FURTHER. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
CERTAINLY WILL BE NEEDED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS EVENT... OR WIND
CHILL WARNINGS EXPANDED. THIS MAY BE THE COLDEST THAT MANY AREAS
HAVE EXPERIENCED IN YEARS.

[venture]

NWS Norman's first stab at amounts.

[Thunder]

Venture, I only see mentions of one cold front, so since this front had already passed through, it should be real easy for the colder air to get here...quickly. NWS was noting how the clouds cover is being persistent today, so it limits the temperature increase. Clouds cover keeping the temperature down and then tonight comes when it all plummets. I bet the highs for Monday was lowered. What you think?

[venture]

Surface temps won't really be the problem. It is the temp from 1500 to 2500 feet up that is forecast to be above freezing.

[Easy180]

Are we looking at a wet or powder snow? Thinking if it's more powder the streets may benefit from the high winds

[venture]

Latest Discussion...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
232 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011

.DISCUSSION...
POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING COMBINATION OF WIND... COLD AND WINTER PRECIP NOW APPEARS IMMINENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL BE ISSUING A PDS VERSION OF THE WSW BY 3 PM WHICH WILL EXPAND THE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO THE REST OF WCENTRAL/SW OK AND OUR TX ZONES... UPGRADE CENTRAL AND NCENTRAL OK TO A WINTER STORM WARNING WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR IMPACTS... AND ADD A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR NW OK WHERE COMPUTED WIND CHILLS ARE -15 OR LESS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. PARTS OF THE AREA EVENTUALLY COULD NEED AN UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD WARNING BY TUESDAY MORNING.

CONDITIONS LOOK OKAY FOR THE MOST PART BETWEEN NOW AND LATE MONDAY... ALTHOUGH PARTS OF N AND CENTRAL OK MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE WILL HANDLE THAT WITH AN ADVISORY IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE THE EMPHASIS AT THIS TIME IS ON GETTING EVERYONE TO TAKE PROPER STEPS NOW BY OBTAINING NECESSARY PROVISIONS... AND NOT PLANNING ON GOING ANYWHERE FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AT SOME POINT MONDAY NIGHT AS N-NE WINDS INCREASE AND COLD AIR GETS COLDER AND DEEPER. PRECIP IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY 00-06Z AND ESPECIALLY 06-12Z MONDAY NIGHT. TRANSITION FROM LIQUID TO FREEZING TO FROZEN SHOULD BE FAIRLY RAPID GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION... ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY PERSIST INTO TUE MORNING SE PARTS OF AREA. LIMITED ICE ACCRETION WILL BE OFFSET BY STRONG WINDS... WHICH MAY BRING DOWN EVEN LIGHTLY-COATED TREES AND POWER LINES. FOCUS WILL BE LESS ON SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS AND MORE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR PARALYZING WINTER STORM CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING/DRIFTING ALONG WITH LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS. THAT BEING SAID... WE CURRENTLY PAINT A BROAD BAND OF 4-8 INCHES CENTERED
ROUGHLY LAWTON-OKC-STILLWATER WITH 2-5 OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WATCH AREA. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE BLOWING/DRIFTING... WE MAY NEVER REALLY KNOW. OBVIOUS ANALOG WOULD BE XMAS EVE 2009... AND FOR SOME AREAS THIS MAY BE AS BAD OR WORSE THAN THAT ONE.

SNOW TAPERS OFF LATE TUE BUT WIND AND BLOWING/DRIFTING TO CONTINUE AS TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS DROP FURTHER. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES CERTAINLY WILL BE NEEDED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS EVENT... OR WIND CHILL WARNINGS EXPANDED. THIS MAY BE THE COLDEST THAT MANY AREAS HAVE EXPERIENCED IN YEARS.

STANDARD INITIALIZATION ROUTINE INVOKED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST. MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME LOW POPS EVENTUALLY FOR ANOTHER EVENT TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BUT FOCUS IS SQUARELY ON THE EARLY-WEEK EVENT.

[Thunder]

OBVIOUS ANALOG WOULD BE XMAS EVE 2009... AND FOR SOME AREAS THIS MAY BE AS BAD OR WORSE THAN THAT ONE.

OMGWTF ROTFLMFAO!!! Remember, Mike "Ahhhhh!" Morgan called it days ago! He said this storm could be a notch below the Christmas Eve Blizzard '09. Now look what NWS is saying!!! :-O

[venture]

Warnings incoming....

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
308 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011

Counties: GRANT-KAY-GARFIELD-NOBLE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-GARVIN-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDFORD...PONCA CITY...ENID...PERRY... KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...ANADARKO...YUK ON...EL RENO... MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY... CHANDLER... CHICKASHA... PURCELL... NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...PAULS VALLEY

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS WINTER STORM SITUATION... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD OR NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS. TRAVEL IS LIKELY TO BECOME EXTREMELY DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ALL RESIDENTS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ARE URGED TO TAKE THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM SERIOUSLY AND PLAN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT DISRUPTIONS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

* A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY.

* TIMING: RAIN WILL CHANGE QUICKLY TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN SLEET AND SNOW MONDAY EVENING. SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIME LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING... ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING... BEFORE TAPERING OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* MAIN IMPACT: A CRIPPLING COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE.

* OTHER IMPACTS: VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE STRONG WINDS... ALONG WITH EVEN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE OR SNOW ON EXPOSED SURFACES... ALSO MAY LEAD TO DISRUPTIONS OF COMMERCIAL POWER. BLOWING SNOW MAY CREATE POOR VISIBILITY AND NEAR-WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS.

* ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING... MAKING TRAVEL TREACHEROUS. VERY COLD CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE STORM MAY KEEP SOME ROADS FROZEN AND HAZARDOUS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* PLAN NOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF IMMOBILIZING WEATHER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY MORNING. STOCK UP ON NECESSARY FOOD AND OTHER PROVISIONS BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES... INCLUDING ANY NECESSARY MEDICATION.

* CONSIDER CHANGING TRAVEL PLANS. IT IS PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO PLAN FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT UNNECESSARY TRAVEL MAY BE RESTRICTED... IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE... BY EARLY TUESDAY.

* STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION AS THIS DANGEROUS EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD. WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE NORMAN FORECAST OFFICE WEB SITE. ALSO STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS WEATHER EVENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AVOID TRAVEL. BE SURE YOU CAN TAKE CARE OF YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY IF YOU LOSE ELECTRICAL POWER. MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS AND INFORMATION.

[Roadhawg]

Time to make chili and get some movies

[venture]

New GFS is coming in now, should be done in about an hour.

[Uncle Slayton]

New GFS is coming in now, should be done in about an hour.

With the issuance of the "PDS" warning, do you still think it's hype?

[venture]

Tulsa has upgraded their counties.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
338 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
* IN OKLAHOMA...CHEROKEE...ADAIR...CREEK...OKFUSKEE...O KMULGEE... WAGONER...TULSA...ROGERS...MAYES...DELAWARE...PAWN EE...OTTAWA... WASHINGTON... OSAGE... CRAIG... NOWATA AND MUSKOGEE.

IN ARKANSAS... WASHINGTON...MADISON...BENTON AND CARROLL.

* THIS REPLACES THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET AND SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HEAVY SLEET AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES...ARE LIKELY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44. ADDITIONALLY...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SLEET ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR A BROAD REGION OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS...PRIMARILY FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

* NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA PRODUCING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES...WITH VISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED BELOW ONE MILE. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES.

IMPACTS...
* TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY IN SOME AREAS.

* THE EXTREME COLD FOLLOWING THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A CRITICAL SHELTERING EVENT FOR THOSE WITH ANY PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES.

DEFINITION...
* A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR IS OCCURRING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* DELAY TRAVEL AND STAY HOME IF POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

* MAKE SURE YOU HAVE AN ADEQUATE SUPPLY OF FOOD...WATER AND NECESSARY MEDICATION TO LAST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WINTER STORM.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS WEATHER EVENT. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT: WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

[venture]

With the issuance of the "PDS" warning, do you still think it's hype?

Norman rarely hypes, but I want to see GFS and NAM come together before I get really excited.

[venture]

So couple things as the 18Z GFS is processing.

1) My snow forecast is getting bumped up some.
2) GFS and NAM are in agreement for the most part up through 42 hours but then start to diverge a bit.
3) At 48 hours GFS works in a dry slot from the SW. Ending most of the accumulating snow south of I-40. It has had this feature for he last several runs, just not this pronounced and far east.
4) Surface winds are going to be 25-35 mph, so the talk of upgrading to a Blizzard Warning aren't that far fetched right now.

[jn1780]

With the issuance of the "PDS" warning, do you still think it's hype?

There are different degrees of hype. The NAM is probably hype, but being stuck in a snowstorm even if it lasts a few hours is no fun and could be considered life-threatening.

[Thunder]

Scottie is correct. PDS is a serious warning announcement and NWS do not go overboard on the hype, because they do not compete for television ratings/viewers.

That is also another issue I hate about GFS. It always love to put in the Dry Slot. It curses our exciting weather. :-( Like the saying, "You keep saying that, it will happen," something like karma. Ya get my drift. Screw you, GFS!!!

[Uncle Slayton]

Norman rarely hypes, but I want to see GFS and NAM come together before I get really excited.

Yeah, my point exactly. We have a guy at work who follows Norman stuff pretty closely and he only seems to get his hackles up when they begin to use "alarming" language like this latest one has.

No one who lives outside OK believes me when I tell them that yesterday we almost hit 80 (and may have the day before) and now are looking what seems to be shaping up to be a nasty winter event.

My daughters have already called in from eastern OK county asking "how long do you think we'll be out of school?"...I told them if it happens like the current forecast, after tomorrow, they probably won't go back til Friday...

[Easy180]

Looking like most of the state will be planning like crazy at work tomorrow...Being closed on the first ain't good but I guess it's better than monthend

[drum4no1]

My work never closes, guess I Better get the winter crash bag ready for another employee sleepover.. We need the moisture but I hate winter weather with a passion

[venture]

Alright here we go. This is a blend of GFS and NAM 18Z models. They are pretty close like I stated before, but NAM lags back and doesn't dry slot out as fast. As we go through each period, my confidence does decrease in the amounts predicted here. These are mostly worst case scenarios without being insane like NAM.

January 31, 2011 6PM to 12AM - Map: http://goo.gl/maps/v0Ad

This forecast looks pretty good. Light snow or flurries NW 1/3rd of the state. I-44 area and north will see a mix of Light Sleet, Freezing Rain and some snow. This could transition over faster and be mostly snow, but the amounts will be very light. Remainder of the state will be mostly rain and above freezing.

February 1, 2011 12AM to 6AM - Map: http://goo.gl/maps/lfoo

Definitely a compromise here, but didn't go too crazy with precip amounts. Roughly NW 1/2 of state is going to be light snow with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. A strip through Central OK from just north of Tulsa to most of the OKC metro and down to Lawton will see more moderate snow, but amounts should only be 2 to 4 inches. Just south and east of there a strip of sleet and snow mix. SE of there will be an area of freezing rain and then all rain in far SE OK.

February 1, 2011 6AM to 12PM - Map: http://goo.gl/maps/ruwz

Most intense time for precip, and there is pretty good agreement from the models on this. Precip amounts, again, are between GFS and NAM so may be on the high side. Flurries out in the Panhandle. Western OK and far southern OK around 1 to 3 inches, though some areas may be higher than that. Then a strip of moderate snow from Enid to Watonga to Lawton to Ardmore to Ada to McAlester and Fort Smoth...amounts around 3 to 6 inches. Inside that, including the metro...rough east and north of a line from Blackwell - Garber - Kingfisher - El Reno - Chickasha - Pauls Valley - Holdenville - Muskogee - Tahlequah...snow amounts could be 6 to 12 inches with locally high amounts (especially NE). Winds also appear to be the highest during this period around 30mph or more.

February 1, 2011 12PM to 6PM - http://goo.gl/maps/cQHH

There is where I have little confidence in the forecast. There are still differences in NAM and GFS here. NAM holds precip back longer, producing more heavy precip in the eastern half of the state, while GFS clears it out fast. Both do agree on some precip in the northern half of the state, so went mostly light there which heavier amounts as you go to the east. GFS keeps most amounts below 3 inches in the state, but NAM again has some crazy totals. This period honestly could yield most good snow or nothing at all. If the dry slot works in fast, we may only be left with some flurries or freezing drizzle.

Current Best Guesscast for OKC Metro...
Rain: 0.1"
Ice: 0.1"
Snow: 8 to 14" with some locally higher amounts possible.