Winter Weather Discussion - Jan/Feb 2011

[venture]

Just got done watching Mike Morgan...all I can say is WOW. I am actually startled! This storm is going to be "life threating" and maybe only "a notch" below the Christmas Eve blizzard with at least a half foot if not more of blowing/drifting snow.

Who wants to storm the grocery store with me tommorow?

[Thunder]

Scottie, is that Meg Alexander?

Mike Morgan: "Just a moment as I am looking over the latest model run... *screams* AHHHHHHHH!"
-Screen goes blank.
Kevin Ogle: "And we are back. I apologize for the minor difficulty earlier. Lets go back to Mike Morgan with weather."
Mike Morgan: "Thank you, Kevin. I have just reviewed the latest model run and...... and..... WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!"

Effect on the viewers...



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The end is near. Trapped. Snowdrifts all around the house. Nowhere to go. Mike Morgan on television. Someone is inside your home. Who is it? The Winter Horror coming soon February 1st, 2011.

[venture]

Okay the run down of the GFS tonight is well...sigh. Needless to say, the models are still crazy unstable and don't take any of this for fact until it is....Monday night. And even then...LOL. I would consider this situation a more worst case than the previous because...

Biggest chance, heaviest snow moved to Western and NW OK. Accumulations around 12" up there. 6"+ line is from Hollis to El Reno to Guthrie to Bartlesville. Then OKC metro and right along I-44 and just south a couple miles...1-3" of snow. Good news yes? Heh. Good thing this model is more bipolar than...well...anyway.

OKC surface temps drop to near or just below freezing midnight on the 1st. Freezing drizzle is possible and will increase to freezing rain. This could last into the mid afternoon in OKC, at least according to this run. With this setup, we are looking at ice accumulations ranging from 0.5 to 0.75. This would put it well into the classification for an Ice Storm. So yeah...worst case scenario.

Either way, the position and track of the storm (which is still well off the Pacific coast) is going to be the big key in this. Will we get an ice storm, major snow storm, or cloudy cold and dry? My take aways in.

1) The amount of precipitation that will fall has been pretty consistent of at least a half inch of liquid.
2) The cold air will be here at the surface, but the air about 2000' up is still going to be in question.
3) We'll get a lot of alerts and panic talk over the next few days. However, we probably won't know how it will turn out until it starts.
4) Don't be shocked to see Winter Storm Watches roll out on Sunday. Even if questions are still flying, they'll want to cover their bases and make sure everyone is paying attention for the possibility.

[blangtang]

Get out yer shorts, flip flops and bbq's, and enjoy some late January weather for the next couple days folks!

[venture]

06Z Models continue trend of 00Z with an ice storm along I-44 and heavy snow N of it.

[venture]

So the 12Z model...well let me say this first. As we get closer, this isn't getting any easier. LOL People out there that say with more certainty on whats going to happen are lying or love being at Riverwind on the weekends. Two major issues with models. 1) Exact placement of heavy precip and 2) Finalizing the location of the coldest air at all levels. 12Z GFS slowed the cold air moving into the state down quite a bit, when you compare it to the 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM/JMA/UKMET which all had it in place Tuesday morning. I'm going to wait until this evening before doing a complete re-work of the forecast so I can see if the slower arrival of cold air is the new trend or just a short term bump.

So for now, I'll default to updating some information from NWS Norman that I haven't posted in a while.

Last bit from me. Keep in my the very high fire danger the next two days. Things will be toasty (relatively) and we have only received a couple inches of liquid precip since October.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2011

...BIG CHANGES ON THE WAY FOR PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...

WINTER WEATHER WILL AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS WELL AS THE CHANCE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION... ALTHOUGH THE TYPE AND AMOUNT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. MEANWHILE... A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS COOL AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXPAND NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER... LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND MAYBE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

THE BIGGEST CHANGES WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY... WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE COLDER AIR LEADING TO EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS... WITH BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

AS FOR THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTIES AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AS TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE... TIMING OF WHEN THE WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN... AND HOW MUCH WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY RECEIVE ONE TO ALL OF THE TYPES OF RAIN... FREEZING RAIN... SLEET... AND SNOW. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES AS NEW DATA IS RECEIVED.

IN THE MEAN TIME... PLEASANT WEATHER WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL ELEVATE THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL TODAY AND SATURDAY. THE WORST FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
403 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...
A DRY AND AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST SATURDAY JAN 29.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...0 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ELEVATE THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WHICH WILL ELEVATE THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP ALLEVIATE THE WILDFIRE CONCERNS THERE.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL AS RAIN. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AS COLDER AIR DEEPENS...THE CHANCES FOR FROZEN AND FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

AT THIS TIME...WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST MAY EXPERIENCE MORE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WITH SOME SNOW AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. WITH WARM WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR WINTER WEATHER AND ITS IMPACTS. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS AS THIS WINTER WEATHER SITUATION EVOLVES.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON TODAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
410 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2011

.DISCUSSION...
FASTEN THE SEAT BELTS... THE WEATHER`S ROLLER COASTER RIDE IS STARTING UP. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY WARM UP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE THEY PLUNGE INTO THE ICY COLD.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S OVER A GOOD PART OF THE REGION TODAY. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITIES BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS... ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF OK AND NORTH TX. HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE MODERATE SIDE... GENERALLY RUNNING 15 MPH OR LOWER... ALTHOUGH MIXING COULD RESULT IN SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON SUNDAY IN NORTHERN OK AS A COLD FRONT WAFFLES INTO THE AREA... BUT HIGHS WILL STILL RUN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN MOST AREAS.

AN UPPER LOW... LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA EARLY THIS MORNING... WILL LIFT OUT TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE MOST OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE WILL BE OVER EASTERN TX... SOME OF IT MAY ALSO SPILL INTO SE OK. MEANWHILE... A LARGE COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CANADA WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY... DROPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 TO 25 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN OK WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FARTHER SOUTH.

AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CHILL DOWN... ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK... BRINGING A BETTER POSSIBILITY FOR A MIX OF WINTER PRECIPITATION. WHILE THE DETAILS DIFFER AMONG THE MODELS... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY... WITH THE GFS STARTING IT A LITTLE SOONER AND GENERATING MORE QPF IN GENERAL. THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP WILL PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE FA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WHILE THERE IS REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION... THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ATTM CONCERNING THE EXACT TIMING... PHASE TYPE AND AMOUNT OF THE PRECIP.

ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES... BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL AT TIMES RESULT IN SUB ZERO WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES TUE/WED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OK.

[venture]

Appears to be two large grass fires in Norman. One on the SE side just south of Highway 9 (smoke is pretty thick over the house). Other appears to be back up north a bit.

KWTV live video: http://www.news9.com/global/video/fl...d&rnd=50204833

Area currently impacted: http://goo.gl/maps/TT0R

[venture]

SE Norman fire appears to be done. No more smoke rising up and the noisy helicopters are gone. lol

Sid...I look at it as you would when you put any liquid water on ice. It gets extremely slick. So imagine that under the ice and on top of the ice. Ground temps are pretty warm now, so there will be some liquid under any ice that forms.

[venture]

Fire Update from NWS Norman. Currently seeing some more smoke out the window, but not as bad as earlier. Probably just a hot spot getting put out.

[venture]

Quick update. 18Z has warmed up a bit. This solution stays all rain through mid-day Tuesday and a transition to snow before ending very quickly. The tricky part will be surface temps, if they stay at or below freezing we have problems. If they are a bit warmer, we will have just a really raw (gross) day with some moderate rain and maybe a dusting before the snow ends. Of course, that situation also opens up to be a very favorable black ice event Tuesday night as the rain would wash most of the salt away and freeze overnight.

Heavy snow is also completely removed from the entire state with just the far northern sections getting 1-3 (maybe a 4" here and there) in most areas.

[Easy180]

Sorry to post about ground temps in every post but wont they have a long way to go to drop below freezing this time?

Venture..Is it safe to say we will probably not have LIFE THREATENING WEATHER next week?...lol

[Thunder]

Sorry to post about ground temps in every post but wont they have a long way to go to drop below freezing this time?

Venture..Is it safe to say we will probably not have LIFE THREATENING WEATHER next week?...lol

We will have it. Just depend on the location.

[venture]

Sorry to post about ground temps in every post but wont they have a long way to go to drop below freezing this time?

Venture..Is it safe to say we will probably not have LIFE THREATENING WEATHER next week?...lol

If the precip is heavy enough, it can overcome the melting process from a warm ground. Also, the melting process itself will absorb a lot of latent heat and speed up the cooling process.

As far as Life Threatening Weather...well a person died with the recent flurry, so it is all relative. We'll see what happens.

[Thunder]

Did the models push back in the cold air yet?

[venture]

GFS is just coming in, NAM is just now covering Tuesday morning and is showing more snow for the first part. Give it about an hour an I'll have everything covered. The Canadian, UK, etc models won't be available for a bit.

[Thunder]

Okay, I will be sitting right here.

[venture]

Mmk. Going to take care of Monday evening really quick while I go through the rest. Feel okay with this outlook for now.

Forecast Map: http://goo.gl/maps/o5Xg

Reason for my madness: This is a blend of NAM & GFS for now. I'll tweak when I can spend more time with the others. Very light precip will start in the state. I have a section with Flurries or Light snow in the NW 1/2 of the state. This section I'm not 100% buying just yet, these areas could effectively be completely dry. There is some agreement with a strip of precip from SW OK up into Central sections. Surface temps will be VERY close to freezing (either side). Upper level temps will have a layer of warm air that will cause ice crystals to melt. Then went with the more likely area of rain to the SE of that strip.

Amounts should be relatively light. The center strip could have amounts up to 0.10 of an inch...so if we see freezing rain, we'll see a decent glaze develop. Elsewhere, very light or trace amounts seem to be the rule. So at worst, from the way it looks right now, will be advisory criteria (either Winter Weather or Freezing Rain) from SW into Central OK for this period.

Tuesday coming up...

[venture]

Put an update out in a new post.

[Thunder]

Give us snow instead of ice, because I got aquariums here. If you give us the OMGWTF Ice Storm, I would have to go to Walmart to buy several battery operated air pumps (the kind for fishing) with lots of C or D batteries. I would also have to get hair nets to take out all the bio-media in the filters to put them inside the hair net inside the aquariums to keep wet with bubbles running underneath them for water flow to keep the bacteria colonies on those bio-media alive. Without them, the water turns toxic and deadly. Ya see, this will be quite costly, so please, as a brother to brother, give us the snow storm instead.

[venture]

Tuesday Outlook

1200AM to 600AM - http://goo.gl/maps/kqBL

Precip intensities will see a quick increase. Western OK will be cold enough at all levels to remain mainly snow. Western 1/3rd of OK should see light snow with up to an inch of accumulation possible. Just east of that from Blackwell to Enid to Watonga to Frederick we could see a strip of 1-2" of light now accumulate. The Southeast 1/2 (well almost) of Oklahoma will be mostly liquid and above freezing...so light to moderate rain is possible there (heavier in South Central OK). Then the fun stuff...which happens to include us. Between the two areas will be a strip of Freezing Rain and Sleet. Snow accumulations in this time frame look very limited as the upper air setup looks to favor freezing rain and sleet formation over snow crystals. Precip amounts could become quick heavy with 0.5 to 0.75" of precip possible. This could cause for significant icing if surface temps fall and stay below freezing. We could just get a very cold rain too and remain above freezing. There is also a chance that if the upper levels cool just a smidgen more, we'll see more sleet than freezing rain.

Winds will increase during this time frame and could be 20-25 mph.

600AM to 1200PM - http://goo.gl/maps/qWIY

Transition and precipitation type gradient will tighten some. We will also see precip start to end pretty quickly from west to east. Western Oklahoma could still see some light snow. Another inch or two is possible in NW OK and through an area from Blackwell/Ponca City to Enid to Anadarko to Lawton. East of there, including OKC Metro, we could see an area of enhanced snow fall with some moderate to occasionally heavy snow. Here we can see 3 to 6 inches of new snowfall, perhaps more in spots. We could also see less if additional mixing or sleet occurs. East of that area is an area of some pretty significant icing from Tulsa to Ardmore. High accumulations could be well over a half inch. Then east of there, through most of SE OK we could see precip still be primarily rain and some of it heavy.

Winds will be 20-30 mph so some blowing and drifting could occur. It could also exacerbate conditions where icing is greatest with more power outages.

1200PM to 1200AM - http://goo.gl/maps/XY2R

Precip is coming to an end very quickly. Light snow/flurries will cover most of the state. Far SE Oklahoma could still see a light mix there. There will be two areas where an additional 1 or 2 inches could accumulate in far Northern OK and through SE sections. Winds will start to calm down a bit and be generally 15-20 mph. As the snow pulls out, some flurries may remain around in the NE 1/2 of the state through the evening.

Summary

Metro OKC is going to go through 3 phases. Everything will kick off with some light rain or freezing rain. This will quickly move into an icing situation where things could go south very quickly. We will then see a quick transition for a brief period of moderate to heavy snow on Tuesday before the snow moves out very fast. I wouldn't be shocked if it clears out by afternoon drive time on Tuesday.

Worst Case Totals:
Freezing Rain: 0.50 - 0.75"
Sleet/Snow: 3 to 8" (depends a lot on amount of sleet)

So this will not be a repeat Christmas Eve Blizzard. This seems to be closer to the second winter storm we had last year in January with icing first and then a quick blast of accumulating snow. Of course this could all go the way side if temps don't cool enough.

[adaniel]

Wow sounds intense. Sort of like an ugly Snowmaggedon/Icepocalypse hybrid lovechild. If I remember correctly last January the freezing rain changed over to sleet fairly rapidly in OKC which kept this area from experiencing power outages (of course I was still stuck in the house for 3 days). Whats the chance that happens again?

Also, how much ice does it take to start bringing down trees, power poles, etc?

[Thunder]

I don't think it would take much ice to snap power lines and branches with the wind. I dunno what is the wind forecast for those days. If its real windy, then we have a problem. I can't remember what amount of ice is approaching danger levels for power lines and trees.

Sleet, if there is a lot of that, it is very hard to plow away, because they are packed solid ice together.

Scottie, thanks so much for your time and dedication to provide us your insight. It is all greatly appreciated. <3

[venture]

Wow sounds intense. Sort of like an ugly Snowmaggedon/Icepocalypse hybrid lovechild. If I remember correctly last January the freezing rain changed over to sleet fairly rapidly in OKC which kept this area from experiencing power outages (of course I was still stuck in the house for 3 days). Whats the chance that happens again?

Also, how much ice does it take to start bringing down trees, power poles, etc?

It can still go either way. We could end up being mostly rain and transition into snow before ending. Of course it would be nice to luck out and go mostly snow and avoid the icing.

As far as how much ice trees and such can take. Considering the amount of ice storms we've had over the years, we may not have a lot of weak trees out there. However, with it being so dry lately - that could come into play. Also any trees weakened by the severe storms of last spring could be an issue. Once we get over a quarter of an inch of ice is when we start seeing limbs and such come down. Of course we should avoid the results we saw from the major ice storm a few years ago when we had 1-2 inches of ice on everything.

[bandnerd]

Crap. I don't want to take any more snow days out of school. I see my very small vacation window dwindling away...

[Easy180]

Looks like Tuesday will be fun regardless of what falls from the sky

Either way I expect my company to send out their usual weather alert text message basically saying get yo ass to work