Winter Weather Discussion - Jan/Feb 2011

[adaniel]

Downtown was actually as bad as any road I was on from 50th and Western to here.

I live and work in Midtown/Dowtown area. The roads I take to work were all passible but extremely slick (and I take some pretty busy roads). Also, many of the surface lots that are ususally full by now are eerily empty and at least a handful of retail businesses are closed.

[OKCisOK4me]

Driving to work in the 11 o'clock hour was as easy as after a rainstorm. Of course, the ice scraping of my car was a bit of delay, but the roads were A O K. I hope they dry off real well cause I don't get off til 8 tonight.

[Thunder]

Next round!



^^^ Graphic may change.

[OKCisOK4me]

Who cares. It's a "slight" chance... But you keep on praying for bad weather Thunder and one day you'll get your karma.

[venture]

Not really buying the weekend stuff to be much more than a flurry or sprinkle.

Also, lay off of Thunder. This thread tends to be a weather geek thread too, and yes...some of us like seeing mother nature got crazy every now and then. :-P I personally love intense winter storms since they aren't as localized as spring severe weather and you don't have to drive 200 miles to see it. LOL

[Thunder]

The graphic changed. They downgraded it to slight. But anything can change until then.

[OKCisOK4me]

Not really buying the weekend stuff to be much more than a flurry or sprinkle.

Also, lay off of Thunder. This thread tends to be a weather geek thread too, and yes...some of us like seeing mother nature got crazy every now and then. :-P I personally love intense winter storms since they aren't as localized as spring severe weather and you don't have to drive 200 miles to see it. LOL

Ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm, I am a weather freak! LOL. When my friends want to know about the weather, they ask me. As an inside joke, a friend of mine calls me Mike. I call him Rick (cause he's a weather freak too). When a siren goes off, screw the center of the house, I'm out front in the yard looking for the darn thing! I just don't wish for Armageddon. If it happens it happens. Today wasn't horrible and look how people still can't handle their cars.

[Thunder]

Hoping for a decent snowfall with decent snow on the ground is not Armageddon. Last I checked, snow is not fire. :-/

[Easy180]

I waited til 7:20 to get out and the highways were in decent shape then...saw lots'o trucks on the side of the road....Not sure why truck guys haven't noticed by now they make up 75% of the wrecks in snow and ice and take that right foot off da pedal a little

[venture]

Yeah, truck drivers tend to not realize rear wheel vehicles don't handle the ice as well. Anywho...weekend system doesn't look like much of anything with nearly all precip going north of OK. Following drought update will probably start becoming the main story into February unless we start seeing some moisture around here.

[venture]

Maybe some help with the drought situation coming up...you all know the drill, way far out...things can change...so ya.

January 30th PM map: http://goo.gl/maps/n9rh
January 31st AM map: http://goo.gl/maps/F8PD

This looks like it'll be a pretty fast moving shot at winter weather. Of course it is a week out so things will change 83 times before then. Upper air looks like it will support mostly snow, which should keep us away from much icing. There is the chance for some freezing drizzle in the PM on the 31st as the snow moves out. Precip amounts are pretty inflated right now as they usually tend to be this far out. Worst case scenario 0.5" to 0.8" of liquid equivalent from Central into South Central OK. Depending on the snow quality will determine on how much actually piles up...so just going by the default 10 to 1 ratio can't really apply this far out.

Second part of the story will be a reinforcing shot of arctic air. Afternoon highs on Jan 31st may only be in the teens to low 20s. Low on the morning of Feb 1st could be anywhere from 5 to 10 above. Temps look like they will get back above freezing a couple days later, so nothing that bad at all. Some additional shots of cold air will happen every couple of days, but nothing terrible that we haven't had already.

[Thunder]

This looks real exciting!!!! Now, if only we can make the system move slow or stall over us. :-D

[venture]

This looks real exciting!!!! Now, if only we can make the system move slow or stall over us. :-D

Yup, and the afternoon models erased it completely. So we'll just have to wait and see if anything happens next weekend.

[Thunder]

Yup, and the afternoon models erased it completely. So we'll just have to wait and see if anything happens next weekend.

Now its down to 82 times now. :-P

[venture]

Okay, so to give an idea of how insane and stupid long range models can be. LOL So I am just going to use the last 24 hours-ish as an example. The date, February 1st daytime morning hours.

12Z Run on 1/23/10: Dry, temps 5 to 10 above.
18Z Run on 1/23/10: Few clouds, flurry...temps mid 20s.
00Z Run on 1/24/10: Dry temps low 30s.
06Z Run on 1/24/10: Light Snow, temps low 30s.
12Z Run on 1/24/10: Light Freezing Drizzle, temps around 30.
18Z Run on 1/24/10: OMGWTF Ice Storm or Heavy Rain (over 1"). Temps around 30.

So what are we on now? 75 more times it can change? LOL Just thought it was entertaining to show how crazy and rough long range forecasts are. However, they provide for good discussion material up until it happens. $10 the next run has us dry and in the 40s. :-P

[FritterGirl]

I like the OMGWTF forecast. Sounds very official. Is this a specific computer designation?

[Bostonfan]

Please, anything but freezing rain!!

[Easy180]

I like what weather.com shows for the 1st

Fifty with 10% chance of rain

[Thunder]

Okay, so to give an idea of how insane and stupid long range models can be. LOL So I am just going to use the last 24 hours-ish as an example. The date, February 1st daytime morning hours.

12Z Run on 1/23/10: Dry, temps 5 to 10 above.
18Z Run on 1/23/10: Few clouds, flurry...temps mid 20s.
00Z Run on 1/24/10: Dry temps low 30s.
06Z Run on 1/24/10: Light Snow, temps low 30s.
12Z Run on 1/24/10: Light Freezing Drizzle, temps around 30.
18Z Run on 1/24/10: OMGWTF Ice Storm or Heavy Rain (over 1"). Temps around 30.

So what are we on now? 75 more times it can change? LOL Just thought it was entertaining to show how crazy and rough long range forecasts are. However, they provide for good discussion material up until it happens. $10 the next run has us dry and in the 40s. :-P

Thanks for the laugh!!! Only you can make me smile on here (Penny, too). :-D

[venture]

Okay, so 00Z Run for 1/25/10 (this evening)... Icepocalypse has gone away, for the most part. New map to reflect model trends: http://goo.gl/maps/s0vJ

Precip amounts are still a bit high, but will show them with high chance areas on the map. With the setup as it looks now there is a chance for sleet to play havoc with the snow totals. Surface temps will be around freezing or just above. Not going to bite though with an amount forecast until we see consistency for a few days and get closer. Highest precip amounts are from Central OK back to the west. No the OMGWTF totals from earlier, but still over a half inch (liquid).

Other things to note going forward. January 30th may see some heavy rain in SE OK...away from the driest areas of the state unfortunately. Chance of Rain/Snow around the 5th. Chance of Rain/Storms around the 8th. Chance of Rain/Snow around the 9th. The 8th looks like highs may be back in the 60s...so naturally if we can really warm up, we'll have snow the following day.

[Easy180]

Most sites are predicting close to 40 with chance of snow flurries on the 1st...Either way it looks like a one morning or one day event

[OKCisOK4me]

My weather channel app is showing the 31st with a chance of snow showers and partly cloudy on the 1st. I can deal with that.

[venture]

Storm track is still wacky. Will do an update to the maps and stuff tonight.

[Bostonfan]

Mike Morgan has just said a potentially life threating winter storm for Monday/Tuesday. Ratings must be low during this mild winter.

[Thunder]

Mike Morgan has just said a potentially life threating winter storm for Monday/Tuesday. Ratings must be low during this mild winter.

ROTFLMFAO!!!!!! He is the only one to use fear tactics to make people to listen. Quite funny!!!