Winter Weather Discussion - Jan/Feb 2011

[Bunty]

You can have some of our snow here in northern Wisconsin. I'd kill for highs above 30!

ha, ha, This time of year in Oklahoma we would kill for highs above 70!

[ljbab728]

Let's differentiate between snow and ice. Snow is eminently drivable. Ice is the problem.

Of course, there are those who insist you can drive 75 on either, and that tells you the folks who are the real problem on OK roads in winter...

Of course snow is driveable and ice can be navigated with extreme caution but that wasn't my point. You are correct that the drivers are the problem and any kind of winter weather conditions makes that worse and more dangerous. I can be the most cautious driver in the world and be on the same road with an idiot who doesn't understand how to drive in those conditions who might plow right into me. Driving in normal dry conditions can be dangerous but winter weather is worse.

[venture]

Of course snow is driveable and ice can be navigated with extreme caution but that wasn't my point. You are correct that the drivers are the problem and any kind of winter weather conditions makes that worse and more dangerous. I can be the most cautious driver in the world and be on the same road with an idiot who doesn't understand how to drive in those conditions who might plow right into me. Driving in normal dry conditions can be dangerous but winter weather is worse.

Stay home and let natural selection do its thing? lol

[ljbab728]

Stay home and let natural selection do its thing? lol

That would be an ideal situation. LOL
I'll let Thunder have all of that fun.

[venture]

Forecast looks good so far. I may adjust to bump up snow amounts a bit and modify the coverage area...but really not a bad assessment so far.

[venture]

Winter Weather Advisory from NWS Norman for all but SW OK.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
430 AM CST WED JAN 19 2011

OKZ022>032-039>043-046-047-192200-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0003.110120T0600Z-110120T1900Z/
WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-CARTER-JOHNSTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CORDELL...ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...M OORE...SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...HOLDENVILLE...DUNCAN.. .PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...COALGATE...ARDMORE...TISH OMINGO
430 AM CST WED JAN 19 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ICE...SNOW...AND WIND. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM CST THURSDAY.

* TIMING: LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... CHANGING TO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. MORE SNOW AND SLEET NORTH TOWARD OKLAHOMA CITY...AND MORE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SOUTH TOWARD ARDMORE.

* MAIN IMPACT: LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE IF NOT LIKELY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT ACCUMULATION...UP TO ONE INCH...OF SLEET AND SNOW.

* OTHER IMPACTS: BRISK WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE AND SNOW CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS. IF YOU HAVE TO BE OUTSIDE...DRESS IN LAYERS AND LEAVE NO SKIN EXPOSED TO THE WIND.

HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...MEDFORD...PONCA CITY...ARNETT...WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...ENID...PERRY ...CHEYENNE...TALOGA...WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...WAT ONGA...KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER
430 AM CST WED JAN 19 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ICE...SNOW...AND WIND. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CST THURSDAY.

* TIMING: LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING... CHANGING TO MODERATE SLEET AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* MAIN IMPACT: LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE... FOLLOWED BY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SLEET AND SNOW. MAINLY SNOW NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412.

* OTHER IMPACTS: BRISK WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO DEGREES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE AND SNOW CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS. IF YOU HAVE TO BE OUTSIDE...DRESS IN LAYERS AND LEAVE NO SKIN EXPOSED TO THE WIND.

[FritterGirl]

Looks like it will track largely south of 39th / I-44. Edmond will miss out again.

[venture]

Looks like it will track largely south of 39th / I-44. Edmond will miss out again.

Huh? lol

[Thunder]

Looks like it will track largely south of 39th / I-44. Edmond will miss out again.

No. You are mistaken. The NAM is forcing the system to track more northerly. Edmond has better chances than OKC. :-(

[FritterGirl]

Well, looks like I wasn't reading that correctly. I saw THIS:

WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-CARTER-JOHNSTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CORDELL...ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...M OORE...SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...HOLDENVILLE...DUNCAN.. .PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...COALGATE...ARDMORE...TISH OMINGO
430 AM CST WED JAN 19 2011

...and saw where Edmond, Guthrie were NOT included (nor LOGAN county), but most of the communities along the I-40 corridor ARE included, and garnered my info from that.

[venture]

Updated the map a bit based on this mornings models. Link to the new Google map is: http://goo.gl/maps/jct0 or just click the image above.

It might be a bit rough to understand...I put a shaded pink area over time the snowfall amount prediction which I outlined with white lines.

[venture]

Well, looks like I wasn't reading that correctly. I saw THIS:

...and saw where Edmond, Guthrie were NOT included (nor LOGAN county), but most of the communities along the I-40 corridor ARE included, and garnered my info from that.

They are in the 2nd advisory area which is just below that one.

[venture]

Update of the advisories...

HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...MEDFORD...PONCA CITY...ARNETT...WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...ENID...PERRY ...CHEYENNE...TALOGA...WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...WAT ONGA...KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER
330 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CST THURSDAY...

* TIMING: SNOW AND A CHANCE OF SLEET BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION DECREASING AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT: 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET... MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS FARTHER SOUTH WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.

* OTHER IMPACTS: BRISK WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO DEGREES.

WASHlTA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-CARTER-JOHNSTON
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CORDELL...ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...M OORE...SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...HOLDENVILLE...DUNCAN.. .PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...COALGATE...ARDMORE...TISH OMINGO
330 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM CST THURSDAY...

* TIMING: RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AND SLEET EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT: LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY MORNING.

* OTHER IMPACTS: BRISK WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-PAWNEE-TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-WAGONER-CHEROKEE
249 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
* IN OKLAHOMA...CHEROKEE...WAGONER...TULSA...ROGERS...M AYES...PAWNEE...WASHINGTON...OSAGE...CRAIG AND NOWATA.

* THIS WARNING REPLACES THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF IT...A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW...IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 6 PM THIS EVENING NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...AND WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

* 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY.

IMPACTS...
* TRAVEL WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFICULT AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE TREACHEROUS. CONDITIONS ON THE ROADWAY MAY IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY AS THE SNOW ENDS AND THE SUN COMES OUT.

DEFINITION...
* A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR IS OCCURRING. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* DELAY TRAVEL AND STAY HOME IF POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-LATIMER-LE FLORE
249 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
* IN OKLAHOMA...CREEK...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...PITTSBURG ... SEQUOYAH...MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE...LE FLORE...LATIMER AND HASKELL.
* IN ARKANSAS...CRAWFORD...SEBASTIAN AND FRANKLIN.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF IT...A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW...IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR...AND WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

* FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION AND LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY.

IMPACTS...
* TRAVEL WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFICULT TOWARD EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ON THURSDAY MAY BE DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. CONDITIONS ON THE ROADWAY MAY IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY AS THE SNOW ENDS AND THE SUN COMES OUT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* USE EXTRA CAUTION IF DRIVING. ATTEMPT TO STAY ON TREATED ROADWAYS. EXPECT TRAVEL DELAYS.

[MikeOKC]

So Venture, what's your best guess for north OKC for ice versus snow during morning drive on Thursday?

[Easy180]

Would be nice to hear Ventures guess as of course the tv dudes want to scare us into checking in at 5 tom morning

[venture]

I think we'll actually avoid most of the ice. Probably have some sleet mixed in and also freezing drizzle during times when the snow backs off a bit. The roads shouldn't be that bad if they already have salt down and the bridges treated. Granted, that won't cure the instinctual need for drivers to run into another car as soon as they see a snowflake.

[Easy180]

Venture...How about ground temps?...Since we hit 50 today don't ya think the roads will hang in there pretty well or does it only take a few hours of cold?

[venture]

Yeah ground temps are pretty warm, so that will help any non-elevated streets. Here the maps for current air and ground temps.

[venture]

Last quick update for the evening.

Precip is expanding across the area. Mainly I-40 and north, with some isolated areas south of I-40 (Seminole County). The more steady precip is from Major County east to Garfield, Noble, Payne, Pawnee, Creek, and Tulsa counties...expanding to the north. This seems to be the area with the primary snow band will setup. South of that into the OKC metro is much lighter precip. Radar presentation definitely indicates a freezing drizzle/light freezing rain setup right now...which is verified by the current report out of Will Rogers Airport and also at Tinker. Wiley Post is reporting light snow right now which it could possibly be as well...either way OKC is below freezing right now at all 3 airports.

Other reports have Shawnee with mixed precip at 32, Guthrie with mixed precip and 27, Chandler mixed precip and 30, Stillwater has light snow and 25. Freezing line in the Metro right now is around Norman...where the mesonet site is below freezing but the site about 3 feet (well a bit more than that) is at 34.

[bandnerd]

Venture--do we have any word on how it is driving to Tulsa? Although school is canceled (grr), I am supposed to drive up there today for a 2-day conference. I really don't want to waste the school's money by not going!

[MadMonk]

The Kilpatrick turnpike was in pretty decent shape this morning. They've done a great job on it. The main city streets weren't too bad, but of course my neighborhood street was an ice rink.

[Roadhawg]

and of course you have to watch out for the idiot drivers who think they can drive like they usually do....

[OKCMallen]

Downtown was actually as bad as any road I was on from 50th and Western to here.

[BBatesokc]

Already been from home SE OKC to downtown OKC today. Definitely slick in spots, but not really bad at all if you go slow and pay attention (i.e. put your phones down and drive!).

[bandnerd]

The Kilpatrick turnpike was in pretty decent shape this morning. They've done a great job on it. The main city streets weren't too bad, but of course my neighborhood street was an ice rink.

Good to know. I'm only dealing with the turnpike, I-44, and downtown, so looks like it should be okay! I'll let the sun stay out for a little bit to help melt it away. I can already see blue sky on my side of town.