Winter Weather Discussion - Jan/Feb 2011

[Thunder]

Weather.com keeps downplaying Monday...now have it at high of 40 with few snow showers

Won't the ground temps be still too warm on Monday to have a road condition problem anyway?

Weather.com is junk. Case closed. It is best to rely on our local NWS and Venture on here.

[Easy180]

Accuweather has a similar forecast for Monday...Definitely listen to Venture but like to glance at numerous sites when deciding whether to get ready or not

[venture]

Here is a quick run down based on what things are looking like tonight.

January 9, 2011
Precip type is going to be contingent on how fast the cold air gets here. I went with mostly liquid only from I-40 and south. A mix from I-40 north except for NW OK which could be mostly snow. Amounts should be less than 2" of the white stuff in most locals, liquid accumulation will be very light. If cold air moves in faster, a change over will happen quickly closer to the city. Temps Low to Mid 30s.

January 10, 2011
More of a general snowfall for the area. Temps do appear that they will be cold for all snow here. There may be a mix along the Red River. Snow totals should remain light, nothing over 3" from the way it looks. Roughly 1" or less I-40 south, and 1-2" from I-40 north. NC OK may see up to 3" in spots. Temps Mid 20s to Low 30s.

January 11th is looking mostly dry, so nothing to show there. Temps Teens to 20s.

January 12th may see light snow showers/flurries across the northern half of the state. Don't expect much more than a nice winter scene. Temps Teens to 20s.

January 13th sees more of the same, just a bit further east. Mid 20s to Mid 30s.

14th - Maybe some light rain east. Lows in the 30s, highs near 50.

15th - Flurries or light snow spread around, mainly east. Highs 40s & 50s early falling to 20s in the afternoon.

16th - Light snow, mainly Northern 1/3rd of OK. Temps mainly in the 20s, lows in Northern OK in the single digits.

17th - Light snow in the Red River valley. Temps mostly 20s, some teens and single digits North.

18th - Dry. Temps 20s to 30s.

19th - Dry. Morning temps in 20s, upper 30s and low 40s in afternoon.

20th - Light snow NE OK. Temps in Low 30s falling into the 20s.

21st - Dry. Lows in the teens, highs 20s and 30s.

[ljbab728]

Here is a quick run down based on what things are looking like tonight.

January 9, 2011
Precip type is going to be contingent on how fast the cold air gets here. I went with mostly liquid only from I-40 and south. A mix from I-40 north except for NW OK which could be mostly snow. Amounts should be less than 2" of the white stuff in most locals, liquid accumulation will be very light. If cold air moves in faster, a change over will happen quickly closer to the city. Temps Low to Mid 30s.

January 10, 2011
More of a general snowfall for the area. Temps do appear that they will be cold for all snow here. There may be a mix along the Red River. Snow totals should remain light, nothing over 3" from the way it looks. Roughly 1" or less I-40 south, and 1-2" from I-40 north. NC OK may see up to 3" in spots. Temps Mid 20s to Low 30s.

January 11th is looking mostly dry, so nothing to show there. Temps Teens to 20s.

January 12th may see light snow showers/flurries across the northern half of the state. Don't expect much more than a nice winter scene. Temps Teens to 20s.

January 13th sees more of the same, just a bit further east. Mid 20s to Mid 30s.

14th - Maybe some light rain east. Lows in the 30s, highs near 50.

15th - Flurries or light snow spread around, mainly east. Highs 40s & 50s early falling to 20s in the afternoon.

16th - Light snow, mainly Northern 1/3rd of OK. Temps mainly in the 20s, lows in Northern OK in the single digits.

17th - Light snow in the Red River valley. Temps mostly 20s, some teens and single digits North.

18th - Dry. Temps 20s to 30s.

19th - Dry. Morning temps in 20s, upper 30s and low 40s in afternoon.

20th - Light snow NE OK. Temps in Low 30s falling into the 20s.

21st - Dry. Lows in the teens, highs 20s and 30s.

That sounds like fairly normal January weather to me so it's nothing to get too worked up about. I don't see any mention of the sub zero highs we were hearing about earlier.

[Thunder]

The two systems is really close with the timing...one arriving on Sunday and the other just next day on Monday. Do you see any indication of the first system slowing down? What is the likeliness of the first system slowing down and meet with the second system on Monday? And do you see any possible hint that a third system pop up out of nowhere (maybe somewhere in Texas) similar to what we had seen a few years ago with two systems giving us major snowstorm? What is really interesting is the timing of the two systems. And do you think the second system will keep tracking down toward us or keep on current forecasted track through Kansas? What are you seeing with the moisture count for Monday? Any surge from that to boost the snowfall totals?

[venture]

That sounds like fairly normal January weather to me so it's nothing to get too worked up about. I don't see any mention of the sub zero highs we were hearing about earlier.

Yeah...nothing too bad from the way it looks now.

[OKCisOK4me]

Accuweather has a similar forecast for Monday...Definitely listen to Venture but like to glance at numerous sites when deciding whether to get ready or not

My cousin is a weather forecaster in Kansas. He says that they like to call Accuweather, Pukeuweather. I find that highly amusing!

[venture]

Overall forecast for the main snow day, Monday, looks goods. May need to bump amounts up a hair...but not much. Will wait for this evening before any changes.

[venture]

Going to reduce Monday's snowfall forecast quite a bit. Majority of the activity will remain in Kansas, with Northern OK seeing some light to moderate snow.

[kevinpate]

Going to reduce Monday's snowfall forecast quite a bit. Majority of the activity will remain in Kansas, with Northern OK seeing some light to moderate snow.

Would it be a pain to extend your anticipated snowfall amounts on into central/eastern Kansas? For next week, I'm about interested in the snow/ice projections between Blackwell and the Topeka/Levenworth/Atchison area as I am for the metro?

[venture]

Would it be a pain to extend your anticipated snowfall amounts on into central/eastern Kansas? For next week, I'm about interested in the snow/ice projections between Blackwell and the Topeka/Levenworth/Atchison area as I am for the metro?

Two links you can look at, these won't stay active for long, but gives you an idea on two models and snow fall totals. Bulk of the snow will occur early, so these should give you an idea of what to expect for the week.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/mode...IN_SURFACE.png

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/mode...IN_SURFACE.png

[kevinpate]

Two links you can look at, these won't stay active for long, but gives you an idea on two models and snow fall totals. Bulk of the snow will occur early, so these should give you an idea of what to expect for the week.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/mode...IN_SURFACE.png

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/mode...IN_SURFACE.png

Thank you kindly. Those are indeed helpful.

[venture]

Updated forecasts for 9th and 10th. Went with mostly snow, but as can be expected sometimes freezing drizzle can happen when the snow moves out. Nothing very extreme as it looks right now.

January 9, 2011
Accumulating snowfall looks most likely in SC and SE OK...with a general 1 to 2 inches, maybe up to 3 closer to the Red River. Elsewhere, light snow or flurries sprinkled about. Could see a dusting in the light shaded areas if some heavier snow showers setup.

January 10, 2011
Storm system will move north of OK, but will bring a general light snowfall to the northern third of the state. Mostly 1 to 3 inches, some higher amounts in a few isolated areas closer to the KS border. South of this, some areas of light snow with up to an inch possible but much less as you go farther south.

[Thunder]

Any chance for a miracle to raise the snow totals?

[ljbab728]

Any chance for a miracle to raise the snow totals?

Wash your mouth out, Thunder. We don't need higher snow totals. Some rain would be nice but snow, sleet, ice, etc., cause driving problems with accidents and deaths.

[Thunder]

Wash your mouth out, Thunder. We don't need higher snow totals. Some rain would be nice but snow, sleet, ice, etc., cause driving problems with accidents and deaths.

Incorrect. Snow provide the greatest amount of traction. Additionally, snow do not cause driving problems and accidents. It is the people's driving habits that will ultimately be at fault. C'mon, where is your continuous Christmas spirit? We all need snow. A decent amount of snow during Winter. Ours come late this time...unfortunately. Let there be snow! Let there be snow! This kind of weather brings people together! Oh, let there be snow! :-D

[venture]

Wash your mouth out, Thunder. We don't need higher snow totals. Some rain would be nice but snow, sleet, ice, etc., cause driving problems with accidents and deaths.

Now now...that is a bit dramatic. :-P People driving like idiots in certain conditions is what causes accidents, not if it is liquid or frozen. Plenty of people still find a way to flip their cars or worse in rain. It is winter, it does snow...and really...snow would be pretty nice. After our winter last year, my yard was so green this past spring it was nice.

Now about a change for higher snow totals, ehhh. Not really. Models are pretty well lined up on keep the bulk of the precip (any variety) away from Central OK. Short term model guidance (RUC) does develop some precip out in SW OK through the rest of the night and towards morning. It is also a bit slower than NAM/GFS in the near term. Going to Sunday afternoon/evening...bulk of the snow will be in two areas. Southern system pulling away will give a glancing batch of snow across SE OK. I wouldn't be shocked to see the coverage of this to be more limited than currently indicated by the NWS's advisories. The other batch will be in NW OK with the next system. Not really much hope here for measurable precip in Central OK...but the northern third should see a couple to few inches of snow. This could come a bit further south to give us a nice dusting, but anymore more doesn't appear likely.

Looking long term, nothing really shows up as having any chance for a good measurable snow here. There may be some moisture though around the middle of the month that might help drought conditions...but cold air appears it will be coming in right behind it.

[ljbab728]

Now now...that is a bit dramatic. :-P People driving like idiots in certain conditions is what causes accidents, not if it is liquid or frozen. Plenty of people still find a way to flip their cars or worse in rain. It is winter, it does snow...and really...snow would be pretty nice. After our winter last year, my yard was so green this past spring it was nice.

Now about a change for higher snow totals, ehhh. Not really. Models are pretty well lined up on keep the bulk of the precip (any variety) away from Central OK. Short term model guidance (RUC) does develop some precip out in SW OK through the rest of the night and towards morning. It is also a bit slower than NAM/GFS in the near term. Going to Sunday afternoon/evening...bulk of the snow will be in two areas. Southern system pulling away will give a glancing batch of snow across SE OK. I wouldn't be shocked to see the coverage of this to be more limited than currently indicated by the NWS's advisories. The other batch will be in NW OK with the next system. Not really much hope here for measurable precip in Central OK...but the northern third should see a couple to few inches of snow. This could come a bit further south to give us a nice dusting, but anymore more doesn't appear likely.

Looking long term, nothing really shows up as having any chance for a good measurable snow here. There may be some moisture though around the middle of the month that might help drought conditions...but cold air appears it will be coming in right behind it.

I agree that snow is pretty if I'm sitting in my living room looking out at it but driving is totally different. I agree that reckless drivers will be reckless no matter what the weather is but don't tell me that winter weather isn't worse. A normally safe driver can come upon conditions that they can't control very easily. I remember driving once a few years ago when it was raining and a very fast moving and strong cold front came through. My windows almost froze over immediately and I couldn't see. It was very scary.

[MikeOKC]

AccuWeather is the Rodney Dangerfield of forecasting. They don't get any respect - except from the many corporations that pay for their forecasts. There's a lot of professional jealousy involved in the private weather game. And, let's don't forget Katrina:

AccuWeather was recognized by Congress for its unique accuracy in predicting the target of Hurricane Katrina's landfall. One day before landfall, while federal authorities forecasted minimal flooding, AccuWeather predicted the city of New Orleans would be 50-70% flooded, and that preparations to save lives should be rushed to completion. AccuWeather's correct assessment of probable flooding from the north, due to a rain-swollen Lake Pontchartrain, provided possible life-saving information delivered just in time.

A lot of people are put off by Bastardi's style. Who cares about style? He, Eliot Abrams, Dr. Joe Sobel, and others , have proven their worth in long-term forecasting.

[venture]

Eh, the biggest issue with AccuWeather that I have is they were pushing their former Senator (Santorum) to get the NWS out of the local forecast business to make it so private firms were the only ones that did it.

So anyway, back to Oklahoma weather. :-P

Snow coverage is increasing a bit. This is mainly going to be from highway 81 to the east. There is still a pocket of dry air over the metro keep more than an occasional flurry (at least here in Norman) from happening. Pretty decent area of what looks like sleet right now from Pauls Valley to Asher/Ada to Holdenville/Cromwell and Weleetka. This looks to be moving slightly north so along I-40 from Shawnee to the east could see some of this. OKC Metro proper...maybe some light snow if it fills in more, but nothing too promising right now.

Northern batch is running from Kingfisher to Stillwater to north of Tulsa. Not all of it is reaching the ground, but some light snow up there.

[venture]

Winter Weather Advisories have been extended further North to cover the area I was talking about earlier.

Intensities on the batch south of I-40 are starting to go down a bit, whereas the northern area is ticking up a bit now.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
147 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

OKZ031-032-041>043-046-100000-
/O.EXB.KOUN.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110110T0000Z/
SEMINOLE-HUGHES-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-CARTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SEMINOLE...HOLDENVILLE...SULPHUR...
ADA...COALGATE...ARDMORE
147 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL
BANDS WILL RESULT IN SHORT PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL. MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT SNOWFALL.

* MAIN IMPACT: TEMPERATURES HAVING BEEN BELOW FREEZING FOR SEVERAL
HOURS WILL ALLOW SNOW ACCUMULATION ON SOME ROADS AND BRIDGES.

ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY IN SOME AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
HOLDENVILLE AND SULPHUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE AND
SNOW CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS.

[Thunder]

It is snowing! Awesome snowflakes! Started to stick to the grass, shrubs, trees, and parked autos now!

Mom texted me from PSM saying "MY GOD ITS SNOWING!" Yay!

[Tritone]

PSM? Portsmouth?

[Thunder]

PSM? Portsmouth?

Penn Square Mall

[Bunty]

It quit snowing in Stillwater. It only got a heavy dusting on grass and roofs. But people who left cars out in it will have to deal with the snow and ice on the windows. Streets wet, but may freeze up before drying out.