Winter Weather Discussion - Jan/Feb 2011

[venture]

Let's hope you keep mentioning this crap along with long term...lol

I know we are in a drought but I have a 30 mile commute each way and would love a completely non eventful winter

Yeah I was there with you, until I said to hell with spending an hour on the road each way. I would like a little snow personally. Just a couple days with a few inches on the ground to cover up the dead grass. A good snow pack would also help with fire weather as we progress through winter.

I click on the dates and google maps comes up, but there is nothing there but a map of Oklahoma.

I just tried it on a different system and they still worked. Not sure why they aren't displaying correctly. Are you seeing the key off to the left at all?

[PennyQuilts]

When I clicked on them I got a blank Ok map but when I hit the back button, the forecast popped up.

[venture]

Alright. Google must just be acting up a bit tonight.

[Bostonfan]

When I clicked on them I got a blank Ok map but when I hit the back button, the forecast popped up.

Tried it again, then hit the back button and got the forecast. Thanks.

[venture]

GFS is in ping pong mode. 00Z run eliminates the snow chances next week. Aggressive with temps again around the 17th. Morning lows, a bit more "reasonable" with temps below zero throughout the entire state. Southern & Western OK will be zero to 5 below. Rest of the state will be 5 to 10 below, except for far northeast OK will be 10 to 15 below. Highs will range from 5 below to 0 in the Northeast to 10 to 15 above in the west.

Prior to the arctic air getting here, snow looks possible...again. Again, ping pong contest. It looks like a general decent snow of 3 to 5 inches across most of the state. Of course that will change during the next run in 6 hours. LOL

I'll post more updates later this week as we get closer, and hopefully more stable in the runs.

[madfcstr]

First things first. Computer models are always wrong. The question is to what degree? It is one thing to forecast a change to much cooler weather beyond 7 days, it's another to try and forecast specific snow amounts. The complexity of the atmosphere is too great to resolve beyond a few days, and sometimes even a few hours.

[kevinpate]

You've got me wonderin' whether I should go ahead and reschedule an all day road trip Jan 13 to/frm Topeka.
On the one hand, decent highway all the way. On the other hand, lots of lonely stretches.

[venture]

First things first. Computer models are always wrong. The question is to what degree? It is one thing to forecast a change to much cooler weather beyond 7 days, it's another to try and forecast specific snow amounts. The complexity of the atmosphere is too great to resolve beyond a few days, and sometimes even a few hours.

Umm...duh? lol There is always a level of error in every model forecast. Which is why there is always a disclaimer on everything. Welcome to the board Capt. Obvious.

You've got me wonderin' whether I should go ahead and reschedule an all day road trip Jan 13 to/frm Topeka.
On the one hand, decent highway all the way. On the other hand, lots of lonely stretches.

It's way to early to even think of that in my opinion. If one thing, I pointing out just how rough it is to pin point an accurate forecast this far out since things bounce back and forth a lot.

[Thunder]

Scottie, referring to your earlier comment about the GFS having an OMG moment, do you believe that GFS can be a living intelligent being? There is a point when machines constantly learn and evolve into an intelligence of self awareness. Basically a life form in progress. I wonder what these machines (the weather models) is thinking other than forecasting weather. The machines are slowly taking over our world and that is a fact.

[Bunty]

Scottie, referring to your earlier comment about the GFS having an OMG moment, do you believe that GFS can be a living intelligent being? There is a point when machines constantly learn and evolve into an intelligence of self awareness. Basically a life form in progress. I wonder what these machines (the weather models) is thinking other than forecasting weather. The machines are slowly taking over our world and that is a fact.

So, see, I Robot, if you haven't already. It's a good movie. In the future, people will fear robots taking over their jobs more than human immigrants.

[venture]

So back on topic. From OUN this afternoon.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
302 PM CST TUE JAN 4 2011

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-051100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
302 PM CST TUE JAN 4 2011

...TURNING MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK...

A LARGE ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN SPREAD
SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING AN
END TO THE CURRENT STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER.

IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVING... A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND PERHAPS A RAIN SNOW MIX TO PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK THE PRECIPITATION
MAY TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

THIS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON AND ALONG WITH
BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY LOW WIND CHILLS. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE MULTIPLE DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING AND WINDS CHILLS BELOW ZERO. THESE COLD CONDITIONS COULD
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

RESIDENTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO BEGIN
PREPARING NOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY COLD
CONDITIONS. PROVIDE WATER AND SHELTER TO OUTSIDE PETS... AND PROTECT
PIPES AS THE EXTENDED COLD COULD RESULT IN SOME BECOMING FROZEN.
ALSO IF TRAVELING... TAKE ALONG BLANKETS AND COLD WEATHER GEAR IN CA
SE YOU BECOME STRANDED.


YOU CAN MONITOR THE NWS WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

[madfcstr]

Umm...duh? lol There is always a level of error in every model forecast. Which is why there is always a disclaimer on everything. Welcome to the board Capt. Obvious.

It's way to early to even think of that in my opinion. If one thing, I pointing out just how rough it is to pin point an accurate forecast this far out since things bounce back and forth a lot.

Then why do you give detailed forecasts beyond a few days?

Disclaimer? What I've seen mentioned are very detailed forecasts for specific points well beyond a reasonable time period for any computer model to "accurately" predict. Why not just run the GFS out another 2 or 3 weeks? It's well known the GFS has no appreciable skill beyond about 5 days. You might as well go with climate. I think it's incredibly irresponsible to be giving detailed forecasts beyond a few days. General trends, yes.

[venture]

Then why do you give detailed forecasts beyond a few days?

Disclaimer? What I've seen mentioned are very detailed forecasts for specific points well beyond a reasonable time period for any computer model to "accurately" predict. Why not just run the GFS out another 2 or 3 weeks? It's well known the GFS has no appreciable skill beyond about 5 days. You might as well go with climate. I think it's incredibly irresponsible to be giving detailed forecasts beyond a few days. General trends, yes.

Why forecast at all? Forecast for weather the following day or hours are busted many times. By your logic, there really isn't any point to it. I guess bitterness reigns in your little world.

I understand you are here to troll, considering you've manage to contribute 3 posts over 3 months of being here...so honestly I shouldn't give you the time of day. However, I'll play ball this once before you crawl back into your hole. Yes the outlooks I post are detailed in some aspect, but are meant only to show what the models are thinking at that certain time. If you had been around longer, which obviously you haven't been (unlike the majority of the people that participate in these monthly threads), you would see that my point is also to bring a different side to all the forecasts people see. They bitch and moan about this guy busting that, or this one calling for the end of the world...so what I do is break down several runs showing just how unstable they can be...but also how sometimes you can get a very accurate forecast 2 weeks out. However, over the period to get there the models may do a bunch of loops and u-turns until it comes back to the original solution.

Is the GFS garbage in the longer term? At times yes. Its when it starts agreeing with the ECMWF and others is when I'll start tossing it a bone. However, you are missing the point. I look at as a form of showing what could possible happen in the longer term - not what exactly would happen. Does it bother you that I've put a map or two together that you can zoom in on and get a pin point forecast? Apparently. Will those forecast maps be right? 90% of the time no. However, when that 10% happens it makes it interesting to see what was going on then to make the forecast solution and why the other times there were issues. It is also nice to have a discussion thread that tracks the trends of the forecast models to see where they start and their journey to the solution. More information that can be used down the road on how to interpret "major headline making" scenarios when they first start to appear.

Is it irresponsible to post this? No. It is my opinion, always has been, and my relaying of what that particular model run is showing. What people do with it is their own thing. I don't come here representing any organization in any official capacity, which either you wish you did or perhaps you do and are all pissy that some no name on a message board comes across better than you? Now if I worked in an official capacity and this wasn't a hobby, then yes I would be much more conservative in what I put out...but this is a discussion forum. If you want to get technical, go to Stormtrack.

With that, I'll consider this matter closed and understand your quick return to lurking on the board. You are more than welcome to contribute and provide insight instead of coming across a troll with a bruised ego and sore behind. I would also welcome you to search this board history through the years on the weather discussions we have had to understand the basis and nature of them. Coming in here on a high horse assuming that this is something that is not, is only going to make you look like more a moron than you already are.

Again, welcome to the board and feel free to jump in with your opinion or interpretation of the weather. Just understand what you are getting into before making snap judgements.

[madfcstr]

Why forecast at all? Forecast for weather the following day or hours are busted many times. By your logic, there really isn't any point to it. I guess bitterness reigns in your little world.

I understand you are here to troll, considering you've manage to contribute 3 posts over 3 months of being here...so honestly I shouldn't give you the time of day. However, I'll play ball this once before you crawl back into your hole. Yes the outlooks I post are detailed in some aspect, but are meant only to show what the models are thinking at that certain time. If you had been around longer, which obviously you haven't been (unlike the majority of the people that participate in these monthly threads), you would see that my point is also to bring a different side to all the forecasts people see. They bitch and moan about this guy busting that, or this one calling for the end of the world...so what I do is break down several runs showing just how unstable they can be...but also how sometimes you can get a very accurate forecast 2 weeks out. However, over the period to get there the models may do a bunch of loops and u-turns until it comes back to the original solution.

Is the GFS garbage in the longer term? At times yes. Its when it starts agreeing with the ECMWF and others is when I'll start tossing it a bone. However, you are missing the point. I look at as a form of showing what could possible happen in the longer term - not what exactly would happen. Does it bother you that I've put a map or two together that you can zoom in on and get a pin point forecast? Apparently. Will those forecast maps be right? 90% of the time no. However, when that 10% happens it makes it interesting to see what was going on then to make the forecast solution and why the other times there were issues. It is also nice to have a discussion thread that tracks the trends of the forecast models to see where they start and their journey to the solution. More information that can be used down the road on how to interpret "major headline making" scenarios when they first start to appear.

Is it irresponsible to post this? No. It is my opinion, always has been, and my relaying of what that particular model run is showing. What people do with it is their own thing. I don't come here representing any organization in any official capacity, which either you wish you did or perhaps you do and are all pissy that some no name on a message board comes across better than you? Now if I worked in an official capacity and this wasn't a hobby, then yes I would be much more conservative in what I put out...but this is a discussion forum. If you want to get technical, go to Stormtrack.

With that, I'll consider this matter closed and understand your quick return to lurking on the board. You are more than welcome to contribute and provide insight instead of coming across a troll with a bruised ego and sore behind. I would also welcome you to search this board history through the years on the weather discussions we have had to understand the basis and nature of them. Coming in here on a high horse assuming that this is something that is not, is only going to make you look like more a moron than you already are.

Again, welcome to the board and feel free to jump in with your opinion or interpretation of the weather. Just understand what you are getting into before making snap judgements.

The outlooks you give are indeed very detailed. Accurate though? Most often not. The problem is you pick one single deterministic run of the GFS. Why? These computer models have many variants that give other solutions. They don't just give one solution. Why not use an ensemble approach? I believe the reason you value the ECMWF is due to the ensemble nature of that model.

[madfcstr]

Meant to say The computer models are very detailed not "The outlooks you give...". Sorry.

[Thunder]

madfcstr, I believe you are dealing with a case of jealousy. Venture is one of the most respected weather man on board here. We all appreciate what he has done for us with time and effort to detail these things and to help us understand more clearly than the overboard weather men on television. Also, Venture is not just focusing on one computer model. There are several others that he usually bring into discussion. I believe you are completely misunderstanding him and the whole purpose of his effort on here.

Venture has not commit any irresponsible action on here. As he had said, he was only detailing what the models was saying at each time along with his personal opinions and experience. You honestly can not question him...ever. No one is perfect and obviously no machine is perfect, but there is no harm in day-by-day discussion regarding the models and the overall weather.

[madfcstr]

madfcstr, I believe you are dealing with a case of jealousy. Venture is one of the most respected weather man on board here. We all appreciate what he has done for us with time and effort to detail these things and to help us understand more clearly than the overboard weather men on television. Also, Venture is not just focusing on one computer model. There are several others that he usually bring into discussion. I believe you are completely misunderstanding him and the whole purpose of his effort on here.

Venture has not commit any irresponsible action on here. As he had said, he was only detailing what the models was saying at each time along with his personal opinions and experience. You honestly can not question him...ever. No one is perfect and obviously no machine is perfect, but there is no harm in day-by-day discussion regarding the models and the overall weather.

Fair enough Thunder. My apologies Venture; no offense intended. Carry on with the weather discussion.

[bandnerd]

Venture isn't doing anything the weather channel hasn't done--my "my page" is showing a "special weather statement" just like the one above. People in Oklahoma like to talk about the weather, even when nothing's happening yet. The fact that so much can change so quickly is what makes the weather here interesting and a point of discussion. I like knowing that there is a possibility that this could happen. Last year, venture started telling us about the models and the large snow they were predicting. I went out to Home Depot, sick as a dog, to get snow shovels and ice melt, figuring it would be a lost cause but that someday, we just might use those shovels.

Someday was 2 days later.

[bucktalk]

Fair enough Thunder. My apologies Venture; no offense intended. Carry on with the weather discussion.

Apologies are few and far between on OKC Talk. Your willingness to apologize is refreshing indeed. If we all could give respect it would create a healthier forum. Much thanks...

[venture]

Apologies are few and far between on OKC Talk. Your willingness to apologize is refreshing indeed. If we all could give respect it would create a healthier forum. Much thanks...

Very much so.

Madfcstr, thank you for the apology. Look forward to having another perspective on the weather joining these discussions we have.

[Jesseda]

so i have been hearing about ice and snow, does anybody know how many inches they are predicting yet?

[aintaokie]

With the possibility of frozen water lines or busted water mains all over town. Keep several gallons of water stored back, I recomend the large 7 gal blue aqua jugs from Wallyworld or Academy. Also keep enough water to flush your toilet by refilling the tank if needed.

[Jesseda]

stock up on gear now. de-icer and other stuff, it might be bad but i think the temps is what will hurt us.., stocking up on water is a good idea, remember keep your neighbors in mind, especially the elderly (even though some of them can run circles around me)

[venture]

Timing is still up in the air a bit with the cold air the upcoming system. There is still disagreement a few days out on where the initial rainfall and such will occur. Once the evening models are in I'll post some more thoughts.

[Easy180]

Weather.com keeps downplaying Monday...now have it at high of 40 with few snow showers

Won't the ground temps be still too warm on Monday to have a road condition problem anyway?