May '10 Weather Discussion

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0581
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 161733Z - 161830Z

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS NWRN OK THEN
MOVE ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY. PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
WINDS CAN BE ANTICIPATED.

CU FIELD IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG A SW TO NE ORIENTED BOUNDARY
AHEAD OF A MCV LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF MEDICINE LODGE KS. ALTHOUGH WV
IMAGERY WOULD SEEM TO INDICATE TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE...A SUBTLE VORT
MAX/UPPER TROUGHING NOTED IN ERN CO WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW MORE
FAVORABLE UPWARD MOTION FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINS...AND AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM...MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1750 TO 2000 J/KG
APPEAR LIKELY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 35 KTS WILL SUPPORT SOME
ORGANIZATION...WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AMPLE HEATING
LEADING TO A LARGE HAIL THREAT AS STORMS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

[venture]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 176
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF ENID OKLAHOMA TO 15 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF LITTLE
ROCK ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THRU THE AFTERNOON AS THE AIR MASS NOW MDTLY
UNSTABLE BECOMES VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND 30-35KT OF SHEAR...STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO CLUSTERS AND
THEN SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...HOWEVER WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE AS STORMS GROW
UPSCALE.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0176 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010

WS 0176
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 10%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : <02%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 90%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 27020
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

[westsidesooner]

The Okeene police dept. reported a tornado on the ground south of town, along with baseball to softball size hail. With the storm motion being southest this may be effecting the west and north metro in the next hour. Heads up everyone!!!!

[adaniel]

If anyone is curious, we just had a ridonkulous hailstorm...at least golf-to-tennis ball sized hail....about 15 minutes ago at NW Expressway and Council. At least one windshield is broken.

Stay safe everyone.

[SkyWestOKC]

I'm laughing my ass off at how Mike Morgasm is treating this thing. No argument that it has created damage, it was a powerful storm. He just mentioned it weakened a little.

A Little? The VIL has reduced from severe to moderate in the past 20 minutes. (meaning updrafts are being weakened a ton = smaller hail) The tops of the storm clouds have reduced 8,000 feet over the past 30 minutes or so. A gust front has detached from the storm indicating that the storm is collapsing. Yet he goes on to say this storm is barely weakening?

I keep telling my family to not pay attention to this guy, but, whatever.

[venture]

Pay more attention to dbz when a storm is this close to the radar site. VIL and echo tops are worthless when a storm is nearly on top of the radar...especially echo tops.

[SkyWestOKC]

He's still too dramatic for me. He is making it sound like hellfire and brimstone will be shooting out of this storm.

[Peach fuzz]

Better than Mr. Wont move his ass off the screen because it's not like we don't know who is the last 30 years and I can't see whats going on England. KOCO keep it classy.

[jn1780]

I think Mike Morgan wins the Drama Queen award. He made a bigger deal about the hail than he did the tornados last monday.

[venture]

I think we are lucky no reports of injuries and such have occurred with baseballs falling in the city, especially for those outside that weren't paying attention.

[mugofbeer]

Seems like some of the earlier posts this afternoon might want to rethink their comments a little. This was one bad-*** storm. One of the worst I've seen that was non-tornadic.

[venture]

Risk outlook the next few days going by the 00Z GFS.

5/18 - Storms possible early as a storm complex comes out of KS. Some severe.
5/19 - Risk of severe weather across most of the state.
5/20 - Storm complex possible across Northern OK early. Risk of storms southern OK towards evening.
5/21 - Risk of storms across most of OK, some severe.
5/22 - Risk of storms across most of OK except for far eastern OK - some severe.
5/23 - Risk of storms across most of OK except for far NW, some severe.

[venture]

Wednesday may be a fairly active day with a risk for strong tornadoes.



DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2010

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
ONGOING ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS IN THE SRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET...MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN
QUICKLY NWD INTO NORTH TX AND OK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BROAD
CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION CLEARS DURING THE LATE MORNING.
IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS AS A MID-LEVEL JET IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.

ETA-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS OK AND NORTH TX ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOWING 40 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F AND MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
3000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE
MORE INTENSE CORES. IN ADDITION...THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE POSITION OF A 35 TO 45 KT JET MAX NEAR
850 MB IN CNTRL OK. THIS JET SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES FOR TORNADOES WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO THREAT
POSSIBLE FROM THE JET CENTER WWD ACROSS WRN OK WHERE 30 PERCENT AND
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY CONTOURS HAVE BEEN ADDED. SEVERE
STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN NW AND WCNTRL TX EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SUGGEST THE CAP WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
NWWD ACROSS SRN KS INTO FAR ERN CO WHERE THE MODELS FORECAST
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
INVOLVE THE TIMING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. IF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ENDS UP BEING SLOWER THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST AND THE
DRYLINE IS SETUP FURTHER WEST...THE WRN PARTS OF THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA WOULD BE FAVORED.

..BROYLES.. 05/17/2010

[Thunder]

Is that hail or tornado %?

Yeah, a poster on here rude about Mike need to reevaluate himself. That was a monster hail producer and I was on my way to work where streets was rapidly flooded.

[Peach fuzz]

I guess we're just getting spoiled because weather or not we like our weather-men, each of them are probably in the top 10 nationally and they do a damned good job at it.

[Thunder]

I guess we're just getting spoiled because weather or not we like our weather-men (and women), each of them are probably in the top 10 nationally and they do a damned good job at it.

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[Charlie40]

A woman takes a backseat to a man when it comes to weatherforcating. for a regular run of the mill weatherforcast they are fine, but when the big storms roll in they need to sit down and let the men do the forcasting and plotting,chaseing etc.

[Andrew4OU]

A woman takes a backseat to a man when it comes to weatherforcating. for a regular run of the mill weatherforcast they are fine, but when the big storms roll in they need to sit down and let the men do the forcasting and plotting,chaseing etc.

Wow.

[silvergrove]

I thought this was a fascinating image of the hailstorm that tracked through the city yesterday:

[PennyQuilts]

That is a neat map. It completely missed us, blessedly. I feel bad for the ones who were hit.

[Peach fuzz]

[QUOTE=Thunder;328582] and women...QUOTE]

I'm sorry but I can honestly say I have never seen a woman doing Live Weather News, I have seen them open the newscast for weather related issues. No flame intended just thought about that for a moment.

[Thunder]

Peach, you failed. We have Sarah Libby on KOCO and a woman for KFOR.

[Peach fuzz]

Oh ya? well I have Rick Mitchell in my pocket. plus pretty women doing the weather might leave me prone to forget about a twister

[SkyWestOKC]

I stand by my comments. It was a hell of a storm, but...even on nothing storms, he acts the exact same way.

[jn1780]

I noticed on Kfor that they have "7 day forecast wars" where the evening forecast is always the worst cast scenario while the afternoon meterologist on duty is usually more conservative.