May '10 Weather Discussion

[ultimatesooner]

sweet, bring on some tornadoes

[Bunty]

sweet, bring on some tornadoes

But not in my backyard or even town. The longer the sun delays in coming out the more likely NO tornadoes. Anyway, it's an interesting transition to the weather that is supposed to shape up later today.

[jn1780]

They pushed the high risk area west this morning to include the eastern half of the metro area.

[westsidesooner]

They pushed the high risk area west this morning to include the eastern half of the metro area.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtima...amp=1273495252


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtima...amp=1273503846

ounbrief


The cloud deck in sw OK is eroding very quickly allowing for rapid warming....it's already pushing the mid-70s in the sw. If that trend continues it'll be a rough day depending on what time the dryline reaches the metro. Right now it appears to be about halfway through the panhandle.....and about half way through the Texas panhandle (Amarillo) area...but its moving quickly. It'll be interesting to see the noon briefing from OUN along with the progression on the DL. Western Oklahoma could end up gettting a prety good dust storm this afternoon.......yuck.

[westsidesooner]

New MD out for northern Oklahoma....and it apperas that the first storms are now firing up just SW of Dodge city Kansas. Tornado watch should be issued soon for northern Oklahoma.



CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101746Z - 101945Z

SIGNS FOR STORM INITIATION ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED. ONCE
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY...WITH AN INCREASING RISK
FOR TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH WILL
BE REQUIRED...PERHAPS WITHIN THE HOUR.

AS A 90+ KT CYCLONIC...WESTERLY...500 MB JET STREAK CONTINUES TO
NOSE EASTWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENING/MIXING PROGRESSES TO THE WEST
OF THE DRY LINE...DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM APPEARS LIKELY TO
SUPPORT A RAPID DRY LINE SURGE ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTIVE THAT STRONGEST
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
FOCUSED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AXIS...ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THIS FORCING...COUPLED WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION AS LOW/MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND LOWER/MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECT INTO
THE REGION...CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 19-21Z.

ALTHOUGH 50+ KT 850 MB FLOW WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT VEERED...TO A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MAY REMAIN
BACKED...AT A SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY COMPONENT... WITHIN A BROAD
RETREATING WARM FRONTAL ZONE. THIS PROBABLY WILL MAINTAIN LARGE
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE... SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOSCYCLONES AND TORNADOES. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS CONCERNING HOW QUICKLY STORMS WILL BECOME TORNADIC. BUT
TORNADO POTENTIAL CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE PRIOR TO
00Z...AS RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH OF THE
RED RIVER TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS/ NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... VERY LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST VIGOROUS
STORMS.

[westsidesooner]

I guess Venture is out chasing the storms so I'll go ahead and post this.

PDS TORNADO WATCH FOR ALL OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
FORT SILL OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF WICHITA KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 146...

DISCUSSION...AN DANGEROUS ENVIRONMENT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN KS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZES AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN
OK...THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH THE
THREAT OF STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. VERY LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CELLS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.

((((((((Storms should reach the Metro right at or before rush hour........so everyone take care on the way home.))))))))

[jn1780]

Here we go

[Thunder]

David is busy on the KOCO LiveWire and the official Oklahoma Hangout chat.

[Jesseda]

where is the dry line at right now????

[Insider]

first Tornado warning for Oklahoma...

Tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
244 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

OKC003-151-102015-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-100510T2015Z/
WOODS OK-ALFALFA OK-
244 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR ALFALFA
AND SOUTHEASTERN WOODS COUNTIES...

AT 244 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DACOMA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ALINE...AMORITA...BURLINGTON...
BYRON...CARMEN...CHEROKEE...DACOMA...DRIFTWOOD...G REAT SALT PLAINS
LAKE...HOPETON...INGERSOLL...JET...LAMBERT AND WALDRON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO THREAT... THIS STORM MAY DEVELOP
DAMAGING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS OR LARGER.

A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANYTIME. TAKE COVER NOW. ABANDON MOBILE HOMES
AND VEHICLES. IF POSSIBLE... MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER.
OTHERWISE... MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR.
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9810 3666 9811 3650 9842 3646 9875
3657 9885 3701 9841
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 225DEG 50KT 3659 9871

$$
WR

[Insider]

where is the dry line at right now????

The dryline appears to be in far western oklahoma...

[FritterGirl]

For those on twitter, you may be interested in following:

@ounwcm - straight out of Norman's NOAA

@TWCBreaking (the Weather Channel)

By all appearances, most activity in N Oklahoma, Kansas right now. According to @TWCBreaking "Main Event" is still ahead. Guess that means us.

Trying to decide whether to try and head up to Edmond during rush hour when some of this is expected to hit, or bunker down downtown in an underground parking garage.

[jstanthrnme]

Storms are now forming SW of OKC in Caddo County.

[PennyQuilts]

I set up my birdcam facing west. If the dog stays calm, I may have to go sit on the front porch. We are east of Mustang. Don't want it sneaking up on us.

[Thunder]

Visit the KOCO LiveWire (Today's Edition) and if you want to post, send an email to Ryan@KOCO.com for an invite (We had a troublemaker earlier).

[BigBadBen]

is there a local radio station that breaks in to play any of the meteorologist coverage?

Im going to be in my truck & wouldnt mind listening to some coverage.

[Dustin]

If anybody in okc is wondering where they can go to take cover, the old Fleming headquarters in Nichols hills has a great underground garage with lots of space. (we are here right now). It's located on 63 rd and Penn.

[PennyQuilts]

Out East of Mustang it seems to have passed. Was impressive when it went by.

[Bunty]

is there a local radio station that breaks in to play any of the meteorologist coverage?

Im going to be in my truck & wouldnt mind listening to some coverage.

Try 96.1 FM

[Hammondjam]

The tornado that hit south of the OU campus was the first twister to hit here since I've lived here. Kinda blows the old myth about Norman being safe from a tornado. In a typical Okie fashion, I was outside, with a beer, watching the clouds with Chopper 4 hovering overhead.

Seriously, I hope nobody got hurt but I don't know how this could be true, considering the damage. I think a donation at OBI will be on my agenda this week.

[SkyWestOKC]

It wasn't cool chasing it from Yukon into the 119th/Penn area. Hook echo was right over my house, glad nothing dropped and got my stuff. When I got home, however, I found a softball sized hail hole in my skylight.....

My friend in Moore had his truck window broken out, softball sized.




Here's some hailstones I found in my yard when I got home.

[venture]

Sorry for being MIA today. Livewire took control of my life. haha

Will do a full run down on what to expect the rest of this week. As for here. Well last year it went a mile north, this year a mile south. So next year I get my new roof! lol

Didn't have my camera on me, but went outside when the sirens blew (of course...I know, bad bad)...saw things wrap up and roommate asked what that stuff was flying around and well...

[venture]

Rough outlook for most of the rest of the month. Usual disclaimers apply. I'm not going to get very detailed since I'm tired. :-P

Near Term
Three more slight risk days, with difference twists.

5/11/2010 - Today
Retreating warm front and dryline resetting back to the wests will provide for some afternoon possibilities while destabilization occurs. While storm modes should be much tamer than today, any storm that does form will likely go severe with the energy available. Few things to consider for today will include early cloud cover, exact positioning of boundaries, cap strength, and just the overall quality of moisture return and destabilization. See graphic for risk area, which I will say is currently a bit different than SPC or OUN (I think Central sections do warrant to be included from the way it looks).

5/12/2010 - Wednesday
Higher risk day than Today, but not as high as Monday. Most of the energy of the storm system should be well north of Oklahoma. However, there is the potential for some higher end severe weather in the state considering the environment that will be present. Do not expect an outbreak by any sense, but it could be the 2nd busiest day of the week.

5/13 and 5/14 - No severe weather expected.

5/15/2010 - Friday
Potential for some severe weather on Friday. This looks kinda questionable still. However, I'm going to put it out there as something to watch.

Long Term

5/17/2010 - No severe weather expected. Some storms are possible.
5/18/2010 - Should be quiet, maybe some stronger storms in far SW OK near the TX Panhandle.
5/19/2010 - No severe weather expected.
5/20/2010 - Some stronger storms possible.
5/21/2010 - Potential severe weather day.
5/22/2010 - Potential severe weather day.
5/23/2010 - Potential severe weather day.
5/24/2010 - Potential severe weather day.
5/25/2010 - Quiet
5/26/2010 - Quiet

[Thunder]

Live Wire | Oklahoma Live Wire -- KOCO.com Breaking News, Weather (May 11) | TORNADO EMERGENCY

Most everything will be on there. David will be on there. Many experts will be on there. Streaming videos, etc.

We have another risk today and even greater for tomorrow.

[westsidesooner]

To all the forecasters that got this system forecasted correctly...with days of warning time, its no doubt with the speed ot the storms and the intensity that they probably saved lives yesterday

Hope everyone here made it through the day without any injuries or damage to property, (sorry about the skylight skywest). We lucked out on the west side again, the two supercells moving up from the southwest split Bethany, one going north of us (Yukon---Memorial and May) and the other making the hard right and heading across the south metro. We only got about quarter size hail here. I did get practice at cleaning out the closet in a hurry though!!! I wanted to get some pix but the trees in my neighborhood obscure any kind of a view. Grrrr. I'm sure the storms were impressive after they passed and were backlit.

My initial target of Enid would have been a good pick if I had been able to get out and chase......its frustrating to miss an opp. to shoot a multi-vortex tornado like the one near Wakita.

It never ceases to amaze me (weather). Yesterday was an incrediblly interesting day from a science point of view with all different shapes and types of tornadoes. From the waterspouts and mini-vorticies just a few yards wide to the huge wedge tornadoes to the 10 mile+ wide rotating supercells. The strom that moved through the south metro looked like the entire meso was on the ground (in Norman) before finally forming into what would become the monster supercell that hauled through Norman and down I-40 to the Arkansas border.....it could have been much worse than it was....thats one of the most impresive circulations I've seen in awhile. The speed of the upper low responsible was reaally impressive....it was really hauling
Next few days could be interesting....and thankfully a little slower and calmer (unless you're right under whatever does form)

I sure hope V2 got some useful data....though I doubt it.

Venture, (BTW....glad to hear you missed out on the damage again...you seem to be some kinda tornado magnet) do you think they'll upgrade tomorrow to a moderate risk for any of the state?????