March '10 Weather Discussion

[venture]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 AM CDT WED MAR 24 2010

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF OK/TX...

...SRN PLAINS TOWARDS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
MORNING ANALYSES AND MODELS ARE IN LINE WITH EARLIER FORECASTS
ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. INTENSE MID/UPPER LOW NOW OVER
SRN CO/NRN NM WILL PROGRESS STEADILY ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH GRADUALLY TAKING ON A MORE NEGATIVE-TILT BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL/SWRN OK THIS
MORNING /ALONG A FRONT EXTENDING FROM NWRN MO/SERN KS INTO W-CENTRAL
TX AT 15Z/ WILL LIKELY BECOME BETTER DEFINED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
INTO WRN AR/SRN MO. THIS WILL OCCUR AS COLD FRONT SURGES SEWD OUT
OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ONCE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS
ACCELERATING EWD LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS
IMPULSE...MODEST WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE CHARACTERIZED BY
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S INTO CENTRAL OK.

COMBINATION OF STOUT CAPPING EVIDENT ON 12Z SOUNDINGS AND SLOW
EROSION/NEWD ADVECTION OF MORNING STRATUS OVER N-CENTRAL TX/CENTRAL
OK SHOULD DELAY DESTABILIZATION INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION
APPEARS TO BE OVER NWRN TX/SWRN OK WHERE GREATER HEATING SHOULD
DEVELOP GIVEN MORE LIMITED CLOUDS. FORECAST OF MLCAPE UPWARDS OF
500-1000 J/KG STILL APPEARS ON TRACK ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
SHALLOW COLD FRONT BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER NWRN TX INTO
CENTRAL OK...WHERE EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
ORGANIZATION AS STORMS DEVELOP BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD AND EXPAND NEWD AND SSWWD ALONG THE FRONT AS
INCREASED ASCENT AIDS IN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING.
ATTM...PRIMARY THREAT WILL LIKELY BE FROM LARGE HAIL AS STORMS TEND
TO BE UNDERCUT AND/OR DEVELOP ATOP CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER
AS FRONTAL LIFT DEEPENS AND SLOPE STEEPENS WITH TIME THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER SYSTEM...ACTIVITY SHOULD ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL OK-TX/RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO AR/WRN LA OVERNIGHT.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW WIND AND TORNADO PROBABILITIES GIVEN
STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED ORGANIZATION
OVERNIGHT.

[westsidesooner]

I'm not trying to jump the gun, but this weekends event doesnt seem to likely....unless I'm missing something. Venture, what are your thoughts for the April 2nd timeframe? I know this is still a week away, and deserves to be in your upcoming April '10 weather discussion but I'm getting antsy and cant wait. There should be ample moisture return by then, and temps look to be close to 80 by the last half of next week.

[BrettL]

I'm not trying to jump the gun, but this weekends event doesnt seem to likely....unless I'm missing something. Venture, what are your thoughts for the April 2nd timeframe? I know this is still a week away, and deserves to be in your upcoming April '10 weather discussion but I'm getting antsy and cant wait. There should be ample moisture return by then, and temps look to be close to 80 by the last half of next week.

Been watching this too. The GFS has some goofy low forming in the gulf which would screw us, but the Euro model looks awesome next Thurs and Fri. Hope it holds.

[venture]

I'm not trying to jump the gun, but this weekends event doesnt seem to likely....unless I'm missing something. Venture, what are your thoughts for the April 2nd timeframe? I know this is still a week away, and deserves to be in your upcoming April '10 weather discussion but I'm getting antsy and cant wait. There should be ample moisture return by then, and temps look to be close to 80 by the last half of next week.

Yeah this weekend is ...yawn.

Will get the April thread going since the rest of March looks nice and quiet - for those that like that kind of thing in Spring. :-P

[venture]

Look for some extreme fire conditions next week.

[venture]

Wildfire conditions are now at Extreme values across most of the state. In Norman right now Humidity is at 18% with winds 25-35 mph. Red Flag Warning criteria states winds around this level with humidities below 20% for about 3-4 hours. I would almost expect to see Red Flag Warnings for most of the area tomorrow as conditions gets worse with temps rising to near 90 here in the Metro.

Areas with Dewpoints below 30°F are generally the same areas where relative humidity is dropping below 20%.

[venture]

Urgent - fire weather message
national weather service norman ok
401 pm cdt tue mar 30 2010

...very warm...dry...and windy weather today and wednesday...

...the red flag warning has been expended this afternoon and early
evening to include northern and central oklahoma. The fire weather
watch for wednesday across western oklahoma and western north
texas has been upgraded to a red flag warning and a fire weather
watch remains in effect wednesday for portions of oklahoma and
north texas...

Okz008-013-019-020-025>029-039-045-310200-
/o.exa.koun.fw.w.0003.000000t0000z-100331t0200z/
kay-noble-logan-payne-oklahoma-lincoln-grady-mcclain-cleveland-
stephens-jefferson-
401 pm cdt tue mar 30 2010

...red flag warning in effect until 9 pm cdt this evening...

The national weather service in norman has issued a red flag
warning...which is in effect until 9 pm cdt this evening.

* warm and dry weather has developed this afternoon and evening...
With humidity falling near or below 20 percent. This combined
with warm temperatures in the 80s and gusty south winds will
create hazardous fire weather conditions this afternoon and
early evening.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are occurring. A combination of strong winds...low relative
humidity...and warm temperatures will create explosive fire growth
potential.