March '10 Weather Discussion

[jstanthrnme]

According to NWS, OKC has had 3" so far. By my calculations, that leaves us with another 1 1/2 " to go to break the seasonal record. Think its gonna happen?

[PennyQuilts]

According to NWS, OKC has had 3" so far. By my calculations, that leaves us with another 1 1/2 " to go to break the seasonal record. Think its gonna happen?

Not at my house unless something changes. SW OKC.

[venture]

Still got the wrap around and then we'll be done.

[venture]

Heavier snow band moving in now. Should give a quick couple to few inches.

[possumfritter]

Coming down pert good NW OKC around 122nd and Council at 3:50 PM.

[venture]

Forecast Discussion

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
338 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY
OVERNIGHT... REACHING THE ARKLATEX BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
MODELS IN A GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO DEEPEN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING WRAP-AROUND BAND EXTENDING FROM NORTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MEANWHILE...
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA IS PROBABLY DONE WITH ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. WHILE THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY
END FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE SHORT RUN... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN ENHANCEMENT AND SPREADING OF QPF BACK INTO PARTS OF EAST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY... WITH THE NAM BEING THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN THIS TREND. THE RESULT COULD BE LINGERING
SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH MOST ACCUMULATIONS BEING EAST OF
I-35... AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM NEAR AND EAST OF A PERRY...
SEMINOLE... ADA LINE. ALL OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR HEADLINES... WILL BEGIN TO STAND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST.
REMOVED ALL HEADLINES FROM NORTHWEST OK. WILL GO WITH ADVISORIES
FOR MUCH OF WESTERN OK AND NORTH TEXAS FOR TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH
THEY MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED SOMETIME IN THE EVENING HOURS.
WILL KEEP CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THESE AREAS
MAY BE TRIMMED OFF ONCE IT IS DETERMINED HOW FAR BACK TO THE WEST
THE SNOW WILL WRAP.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH WARMING TREND
SLOWED BY ANY REMAINING SNOW COVER AND WET GROUND.

IN THE LONGER TERM... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT THAT MOVES INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA ON THE WEEKEND... BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
THAT AREA.

[OKCisOK4me]

Talking about the backside reminds me of Sir Mix-A-Lot. Maybe he should step into the OKC weather market and do his own forecasts. They could be quite interesting, lol...

[Andrew4OU]

According to NWS, OKC has had 3" so far. By my calculations, that leaves us with another 1 1/2 " to go to break the seasonal record. Think its gonna happen?

Some of it has probably melted. So, that 3 inches might include some meltage. Judging from the way it's coming down now, I say we break it.

[westsidesooner]

We've got right at 4 1/2 inches on the westside so far....looks like the wraparound band has just about stalled......OUN mentions on their short term forecast that the storm is begining to mature, theres some evidence of this on radar and satelite imagery. Maybe this storm won't end up being a nothingburger!! I don't know what to expect anymore. Heres OUNs short term forecast issued at 5:40



SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
540 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

540 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

.REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...

AN ONGOING WINTER STORM HAD ALREADY PRODUCED THREE TO SEVEN INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND UP TO THREE
INCHES IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. EARLY THIS EVENING...THE STORM WAS
BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY TOWARD ITS MATURE STAGE. THIS MEANS THAT
HEAVIER SNOWFALL AND LOWER VISIBILITY WAS YET TO COME...AND
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...UP THROUGH OKLAHOMA CITY...AND TO THE KANSAS BORDER
NEAR BLACKWELL AND PONCA CITY.

AT 530 PM...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED A BAND OF
MODERATE SNOW EAST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD TO ANADARKO TO WICHITA
FALLS. THE BAND EXTENDED EAST TO NEAR PERKINS...SHAWNEE...AND
RINGLING. THIS BAND WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATION BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES
BY 8 PM. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THE
PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING A CLOSED CIRCULATION IN SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA NEAR HEALDTON. THIS EVIDENCE...ALONG WITH SHORT RANGE
FORECAST MODELS...SUGGEST THE LOW WAS INTENSIFYING AND SLOWING ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THE RESULT WILL BE GREATER LIFT TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOW. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...UP THROUGH OKLAHOMA
CITY...TO NEAR PONCA CITY. AT THE SAME TIME...WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG...AT 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. WITH
SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...BLOWING SNOW WILL BECOME A GREATER HAZARD FOR PEOPLE
TRAVELING OR EVEN WALKING OUTDOORS. ESPECIALLY AS NIGHT FALLS...IT
WILL BE EASY FOR PEOPLE TO BECOME DISORIENTED DURING PERIODS OF
HEAVY FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

THE STORM WILL REACH PEAK INTENSITY WELL AFTER DARK...AS IT MOVES
VERY SLOWLY INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE STORM...REACHING
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WELL INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

[venture]

So far here on the east side we are barely pushing two inches. Patch of dry air seems to be working in just south of Norman, so we'll see how this plays out. Back edge seems more ragged now than earlier.

[SkyWestOKC]

Venture, just curious, are you using GRLevelX?

If so, what version and where did you get the background image (geography) shapefiles?

[venture]

Yeah...GRLevel 2 Analyst Edition. Background I got from GrLevelXStuff.com.

As far as weather goes. Main band is just about gone, new development in SE OK may try to swing back around this way, but probably won't make it.

[venture]

Latest Discussion...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
933 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

.UPDATE...THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTICS ARE FAIRLY EVIDENT...WITH A
BROAD AND SLOWLY DEEPENING MID LEVEL CYCLONE TRACKING EAST ALONG
THE RED RIVER...AND INVERTED TROUGH FEATURES FOCUSING SNOWFALL
NORTH AND JUST WEST OF THE LOW CENTER. THE 00Z KOUN SOUNDING ALSO
SHOWED A PROFILE OF NEAR SATURATION...WITH A DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
THROUGH A GREAT DEPTH...AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
THOSE SIGNALS ALONE WOULD SUGGEST THE SNOW SHOULD BE A BIT HEAVIER
THAN WHAT IS OBSERVED THIS EVENING. DIGGING INTO THE DETAILS...
HOWEVER...THE AIR AT THE UPPER HALF OF THE SOUNDING MAY BE JUST A
LITTLE TOO DRY FOR THE AMOUNT OF LIFT TO COMPENSATE. SATELLITE
ALSO SHOWED AN ARCING COMMA CLOUD THAT PUSHED UP AND OUT FROM THE
LOW EARLIER IN THE EVENING...LEAVING DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE.
THEREFORE...SNOW THAT IS FALLING NOW IS LIKELY FORMING IN THE
TURBULENT...WARMER LAYERS BENEATH THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL
ZONE...RESULTING IN SMALLER FLAKES AND LOWER SNOW RATES.

THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEEPEN THROUGH ABOUT 09Z...BUT
WILL ALSO BE DRIFTING FARTHER TO THE EAST. IF LIFT CAN OVERCOME
THE SLIGHT DRYNESS ALOFT...SNOW RATES COULD INCREASE...AS IS
SUGGESTED BY THE RUC AND 00Z NAM. THIS WOULD MAINLY OCCUR IN FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...HOWEVER...WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE THAT HIGHER
SNOW RATES WILL WRAP WESTWARD TO NEAR HUGHES COUNTY DOWN TO ATOKA
COUNTY.

THE WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN...AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS
SLIGHTLY. WITH DAYTIME MIXING ON SUNDAY...WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
COULD EASILY BE MET OVER A BROAD AREA. WE WOULD MOST LIKELY WAIT
AND ADDRESS THIS ISSUE AFTER WE SEE HOW MUCH THE WINTER STORM
WARNING CAN BE SHAVED OVERNIGHT...AS THE ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS
FROM WEST TO EAST.

[SkyWestOKC]

Ah, cool. I use GRLevel3. I need to find some storms. It's been a waste of money having that expensive software the past few years with nothing to chase.

[venture]

LOL. Yeah I bout this back when I was still chasing a couple years ago. Then I grew out of it...or just got too busy, one of the two.

[PennyQuilts]

Okay, NOW is winter done?????

[venture]

Okay, NOW is winter done?????

It would appear so, but that doesn't mean lows in the 30s are gone.

Quick Outlook using the 12Z GFS Today

Tuesday 23rd - Dry. Low in the Lower 40s, High in Lower 60s.

Weds 24th - Low in the upper 40s, High in the Low 60s. Chance of storms.

Thurs 25th - Showers and Storms Likely first half of the day, then dry. Lows Upper 40s to around 50. Highs Low 50s.

Friday 26th - Dry. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs upper 50s.

Sat 27th - Scattered Storms. Risk of Severe weather with moderate instability throughout the I-35 corridor. Lows in the 40s, High around 60.

Sunday 28th - Scattered Showers. Low in the 40s, high in the 50s.

Monday 29th - Dry. Low in the upper 30s. High in the 50s.

Tuesday 30th - Dry. Low in the lower 40s. High in the mid 60s.

Weds 31st - Dry. Low around 50. Higher in the upper 60s, near 70.

Thurs April 1st - Isolated Storms. Some Severe with moderate instability projected. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the Low/Mid 70s.

Friday April 2nd - Severe Storms. Still a long way out, but this could be a potential elevated risk day. Lows/Highs in the upper 60s.

Sat April 3rd - Heavy Rain/Storms Early the Dry. Lows in the upper 40s, highs lower 60s.

Sunday April 4th - Dry. Lows upper 40s. Highs upper 60s.

Monday April 5th - Scattered Showers/Storms. Lows upper 50s with falling temps.

Tuesday Morning April 6th - Scattered showers. Lows in the lower 40s.

[PennyQuilts]

Your dates are off, Venture - Monday is the 22nd, not the 23rd and so on.

[venture]

Your dates are off, Venture - Monday is the 22nd, not the 23rd and so on.

Fixed it. Dates were right, days were off. Need more sleep. LOL

[PennyQuilts]

Need more sleep. LOL

With the last little bit of weather, I guess so!

[BrettL]

It would appear so, but that doesn't mean lows in the 30s are gone.




Friday April 2nd - Severe Storms. Still a long way out, but this could be a potential elevated risk day. Lows/Highs in the upper 60s.

.

Been watching this also. Itchin' to go for a real spring chase.

[westsidesooner]

Been watching this also. Itchin' to go for a real spring chase.

It's like waiting for Christmas morning as a kid. I'm so ready to get out and see some towers going up!!!!

[BrettL]

Oh I know, it's driving me nuts. I guess I'll just have to watch people make fools of themselves in the political section until then.... lol

[venture]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT TUE MAR 23 2010

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE WED AFTN AND EVE ACROSS
PARTS OF W CNTRL/NW AND N CNTRL TX INTO S CNTRL OK....

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A PAIR OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN EVOLVING LARGER-SCALE TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ONE OF THESE IS CURRENTLY BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT PROGRESSES INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA...WITH A SERIES OF SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS EMANATING FROM
IT AND LIFTING WITHIN DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE OTHER IS STILL DIGGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN...AND PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED MID-LEVEL
LOW LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ADVANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC COAST.

THE EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN IS ALREADY SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTIVE THAT SOMEWHAT STRONGER SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR
ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU REGION AS THE MID-LEVEL
CLOSED LOW PROGRESSES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASINGLY SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE OFF A SLOWLY MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY
REACHED DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...AND SREF GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE
INDICATING PROBABLE ADVECTION OF THIS MOISTURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST CONCERNING THE INFLUENCE OF POSSIBLE
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF THE BAJA IMPULSE...ON DESTABILIZATION. LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH RETURNING GULF MOISTURE MAY BE A PROBLEM AS WELL.
HOWEVER...AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER HEATING SEEMS
PROBABLE...ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING DRY LINE STRUCTURE...BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS IS WHERE STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND RETURNING MOISTURE BENEATH A DRY MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO CONDITIONAL AND CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE
OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AIDED BY STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...THIS IS EXPECTED INITIATE NEAR
WICHITA FALLS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
TEXAS DURING THE 24/21-23Z TIME. RATHER MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FIELDS/SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION MAY MINIMIZE TORNADIC
POTENTIAL...BUT LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY SPREADS
EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THEREAFTER... WEAKENING TRENDS ARE
ANTICIPATED...AS CONVECTION SPREADS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE DRY
LINE...AND THE PRE-DRY LINE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

..KERR.. 03/23/2010

[venture]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 AM CDT WED MAR 24 2010

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN TX INTO SRN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NM AND INTO W TX BY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD
OUT OF NRN MEXICO AND INTO E TX...HELPING TO MAINTAIN STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS. AT THE SURFACE...SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING A
MODIFIED CP AIR MASS INTO THE SRN PLAINS WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR I-35 IN OK INTO W
CNTRL TX BY 00Z. THIS FRONT...AS WELL AS A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...WILL SERVE AS PRIMARY FOCI FOR SEVERE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING FROM NWRN TX INTO SRN OK.

...NWRN TX INTO SRN OK...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM
W CNTRL TX INTO CNTRL OK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STRONG COOLING ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES
COLDER THAN -18C WILL EXIST NEAR THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUNDINGS ACROSS DEEP S TX AND EVEN THE YUCATAN THIS EVENING SHOW
MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THESE VALUES
ARE LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE WARM SECTOR TODAY. WHILE STRATUS WILL
LIMIT HEATING ACROSS SRN TX BENEATH A CAPPING INVERSION...DAYTIME
HEATING WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES FROM SW TX NEWD INTO SWRN OK.
FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL GIVEN
SUCH COOL MID LEVELS...TIME OF DAY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELDS.

LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE RATHER WEAK...BUT
VEERING WITH HEIGHT. MULTICELLS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL...ARE LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON OVER NWRN TX...ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT PUSHES EWD...AND STORMS
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OUTFLOW...THE THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL EXIST.

...NERN TX LATE...
A 30 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST OVER ERN TX THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EWD. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS E TX INTO SW AR AND NWRN LA BY THU
MORNING...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
WILL EXIST FOR A TORNADO THREAT. GIVEN STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...HAIL...AND/OR A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..JEWELL/ROGERS.. 03/24/2010