March '10 Weather Discussion

[Of Sound Mind]

Okay. Time to unplug your computer and put your tinfoil hat back on. :-P

He's just suffering from severe Morgasms...

[venture]

From TSA

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
242 PM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010

OKZ054>067-200500-
/O.UPG.KTSA.WS.A.0003.100320T1200Z-100322T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTSA.WS.W.0004.100320T1200Z-100322T0000Z/
OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-
DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
242 PM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM CDT
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY
TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
* IN OKLAHOMA...CREEK...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...WAGONER.. .TULSA...
ROGERS...MAYES...DELAWARE...WASHINGTON...OSAGE...C RAIG...
NOWATA...PAWNEE AND OTTAWA.

* THIS REPLACES THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* RAIN WILL MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY
AT TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WARNING AREA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OVER 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.

IMPACTS...
* ROADS * ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES IN THE WARNING AREA WILL
BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS.
POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

DEFINITION...
* A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OR IS OCCURRING. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* DELAY TRAVEL AND STAY HOME IF POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR
TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS WEATHER
EVENT. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT:
WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

[venture]

18Z NAM is moving around a bit again. Heavy snow areas north and West of Metro...as well as Eastern OK. 1-3" maybe 4 on the far northern and western sides.

New OUN Disc:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
333 PM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH
AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS CREATING POTENTIAL FOR
BLIZZARD OR NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. UPPER SYSTEM NEAR MOAB UT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER NORTH
TEXAS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THIS INTENSIFYING
STORM PUTS OKLAHOMA IN LINE FOR AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW... WITH
CURRENT TRENDS SUGGESTING HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF THE AXIS OF HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
AREA OF HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY SNOW ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THIS WILL BE EXPANDED LATER TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT THE
WATCH ELSEWHERE FOR THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST AN
ADVISORY NORTHWEST FOR LATER THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA... BUT COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH LOW VISIBILITY AND SIGNIFICANT
TRAVEL PROBLEMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WILL SEE THE CHANCE OF
SLEET BRIEFLY AS PRECIP TRANSITIONS FROM RAIN TO SNOW... ALTHOUGH
IMPACTS ARE NOT BE HIGH WITH SLEET COMPARED TO THE EXPECTED SNOW
SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED SLEET IN THE ZONES. LATEST MODELS SHOW SLOWER
STORM SYSTEM MOVEMENT WHICH KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE NAM SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE
WITH THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MOVING WEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW INTO CENTRAL OR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. GFS SHOWS
SOME WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION BUT NOT AS HEAVY. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS TREND CAREFULLY AS THIS COULD INCREASE SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL AND KEEP THE HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS INTO
SUNDAY... SO HAVE EXTENDED THE VALID TIME OF THE WATCH AND WARNING
THROUGH SUNDAY. EVEN IF HEAVY SNOW DOES NOT PERSIST INTO MONDAY...
BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE DIFFICULTIES. WOULD ALSO NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THE GRADIENT OF SNOW IS TIGHTER THAN WHAT WE HAVE
IN OUR FORECAST... BUT DETERMINING THE SPECIFIC AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW
AT THIS POINT WOULD BE A CHALLENGE.

WITH THIS MAJOR STORM SYSTEM... MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED PERIODS.

[venture]

Evening 0Z runs are in. GFS 3-6" for the Metro, NAM 1-3". At least as far as the snowfall prediction for max depth on ground. To make it more confusing, total precip amounts will be around 0.5 to 0.8" liquid on NAM and 0.4 to 0.6" liquid on GFS. So anybody's guess now.

[donbroncho]

Evening 0Z runs are in. GFS 3-6" for the Metro, NAM 1-3". At least as far as the snowfall prediction for max depth on ground. To make it more confusing, total precip amounts will be around 0.5 to 0.8" liquid on NAM and 0.4 to 0.6" liquid on GFS. So anybody's guess now.

Thats interesting. Thanks again Venture for decoding all of this meteorological data for us lay people. I really don't want to break any snow records so im hoping for the least amount as possible. Are these models just confused or what?

[mugofbeer]

I also thank you. Sometime when you have a little time, can you decode all of the acronyms you use? Some I remember but for many, its been so many years since I took my meteorology classes I have forgotten them.

[venture]

Metro area is now dropping below freezing. Sleet/Freezing Rain possible until change over occurs. Strong winds in the 40s just to the west of the Metro.

[venture]

I'll be throwing some radar images and saving stuff here: www.anvilcrawlers.com - /gr2ae/

This is from the higher resolution radar product, so it may look a different different than what TV will show. It doesn't reflect precip type since that is a radar program specific, not radar data. However, I'll try to keep things updated as the event goes and I notice important features.

[venture]

06Z NAM has heavy snow band setup to the west and north still. There is the situation where it still shows liquid accumulations around 0.5 to 0.8" in OKC, but is lower on snowfall ground accumulations. It may be taking into account the sleet mixing in and warmer ground temps. Liquid accumulation graphic is first.

[venture]

[kevinpate]

The youngest of the fam is due for air travel (AL-Houston-OKC) on Sunday.
Anyone know the likely storm impact, if any, for arrivals at Will Rogers come Sunday afternoon?

[venture]

We'll probably see OUN start hacking away at the warning areas before much longer. New NAM really doesn't push warning criteria for a lot of the current warned area.

- NW and Far Western OK may seen another 1 inch or less from this.
- SW OK maybe another 1-3".
- SC OK maybe 1" with some dryslotting occurring.
- Central OK 1-2" on the south to 4-6" on the north.
- NC OK around 4-6".
- NE OK seems to still get the brunt with areas maybe getting 6-12".

[Bostonfan]

lol, I guess Mike accomplished what he's out to do. Scare everyone for ratings. What a joke.

[OKCisOK4me]

The radar is clear between here and Altus. Jack Poo is about all that's going on right now. Even Santa is shaking his head in disgrace...

[Thunder]

lol, I guess Mike accomplished what he's out to do. Scare everyone for ratings. What a joke.

Your post is a joke. Mike nailed it. Ain't his fault that a dryslot appeared out of nowhere.

Beside, venture is at fault for jinxing the storm by mentioning the dryslot before it happened. >_<

[venture]

What I noticed this time, which seems t happen a bit...OKC's mets were biting on each model run individually and letting them influence their forecast. They weren't waiting for several runs to show a similar situation before making a call. Of course we'll never know how much of that is their news departments pushing them to embellish the storm for ratings.

Also the dry slot had been showing on the last several model runs, so they all had opportunity to pick up on it - they just chose to ignore it.

[Bostonfan]

This is gonna be worse than the Christmas Blizzard. THIS IS IT!!!!!

The governor is preparing to declare STATE OF EMERGENCY!!!

Speaking of jokes, nice post.

[Thunder]

Speaking of jokes, nice post.

We're not even done yet. We still got the rest of the day of snow. Yeah, so, we have a lil break right now, but it's far from over.

[venture]

Current OUN short term forecast...

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1023 AM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-201600-
ALFALFA-ARCHER-ATOKA-BAYLOR-BECKHAM-BLAINE-BRYAN-CADDO-CANADIAN-
CARTER-CLAY-CLEVELAND-COAL-COMANCHE-COTTON-CUSTER-DEWEY-ELLIS-FOARD-
GARFIELD-GARVIN-GRADY-GRANT-GREER-HARDEMAN-HARMON-HARPER-HUGHES-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSTON-KAY-KINGFISHER-KIOWA-KNOX-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LOVE-MAJOR-MARSHALL-MCCLAIN-MURRAY-NOBLE-OKLAHOMA-PAYNE-PONTOTOC-
POTTAWATOMIE-ROGER MILLS-SEMINOLE-STEPHENS-TILLMAN-WA****A-WICHITA-
WILBARGER-
1023 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2010

.REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...

AT 1015 AM...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED TEMPERATURES OF 32
DEGREES AND BELOW WEST OF A LINE FROM MARIETTA...TO COALGATE...TO
MCALESTER. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WERE PRODUCING WIND CHILL
VALUES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO THE
MIDDLE 20S NEAR LAKE TEXOMA. SNOW WAS FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
LIGHT RAIN... SLEET...AND SNOW WERE REPORTED IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW WAS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

THROUGH NOON...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE ENID...PONCA CITY... STILLWATER...
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA CITY...AND CHANDLER AREAS. LOCALIZED BANDS OF SNOW
WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
LIGHT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MAY AFFECT AREAS NEAR DURANT...
ATOKA...AND HOLDENVILLE. AS FROZEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP ROADWAYS WET INITIALLY...BUT ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE HAZARDOUS WITH TIME.

NORTH WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 20 TO 25 MPH THIS MORNING...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. IN AREAS SUCH AS THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS
WHERE TERRAIN ENHANCES WIND SPEEDS...GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND GREATER
WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.

[donbroncho]

We'll probably see OUN start hacking away at the warning areas before much longer. New NAM really doesn't push warning criteria for a lot of the current warned area.
\.

Thats music to many peoples ears I think. This system needs to just hurry up and get out of here. I think I have a new favorite weatherperson and its venture all the way. I put way more stock in his weather knowledge and such than the TV guys. Keep up the good work!

[venture]

12Z GFS data much the same, if not lower than the NAM model in some areas.

- Western 1/3rd of OK - 2" or less (less further west you go).
- Central 1/3rd of OK - 1-3"
- Eastern 1/3rd of OK - ~4 inches south to 6-8" north.

[kevinpate]

Thats music to many peoples ears I think. This system needs to just hurry up and get out of here. I think I have a new favorite weatherperson and its venture all the way. I put way more stock in his weather knowledge and such than the TV guys. Keep up the good work!

I gotta admit, I get more of my weather info from here than the telly these days. Probably because it is rare for the folks here to go overboard on the info.
And, as an added bennie, I avoid a passle of car commercials

[venture]

Latest forecast discussion.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

.UPDATE...
AS THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CURRENT WINTER STORM TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...A BREAK IN
THE ACTION IS BEING EXPERIENCED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. SNOW BANDS ARE PRESENT JUST EAST OF THE OKC METRO
AREA...WITH AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW PERSISTING OVER NORTHERN OK.

SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHWESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. WE
ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST IN THIS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TRACK. GREATEST
CONCERN IS STILL FOR AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
THAT SHOULD SEE THE LONGEST DURATION OF SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.

POPS HAVE BEEN REVISED TO REFLECT THE DECREASING CHANCES IN THE
WEST...WITH OTHER ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST CHANGING LITTLE.

TAYLOR

[OKCisOK4me]

Venture, I be seeing you on the KOCO Live Wire. You should just bump Rick Mitchell off and take over, lol...

[venture]

Warnings are being cut back out in the Panhandles now. Won't be long to have them dropped in the state. Really - no reason to leave them up anymore. Advisories can handle the conditions for the rest of the day.