February '10 Weather Discussion

[Thunder]

We need an advisory for flurries. We'll definitely have that tomorrow. Once these people see flurries, they'll all panic. Watch, the grocery store is going to be very busy tomorrow.

Venture, come onto Live Wire daily, we have a guy, Scott, a lot like you with his own predictions not as dramatic as all the tv guys is.

[venture]

Snow is coming down a bit heavier...portions upgraded to a warning.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
906 AM CST THU FEB 11 2010

OKZ039-041-043>048-050>052-TXZ086-089-090-112315-
/O.UPG.KOUN.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-100212T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KOUN.WS.W.0003.100211T1506Z-100212T0600Z/
STEPHENS-MURRAY-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-
MARSHALL-BRYAN-WICHITA-ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DUNCAN...SULPHUR...COALGATE...WALTERS...
WAURIKA...ARDMORE...TISHOMINGO...ATOKA...MARIETTA. ..MADILL...
DURANT...WICHITA FALLS...ARCHER CITY...HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY...
HENRIETTA
906 AM CST THU FEB 11 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING: MODERATE AND SOMETIMES HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE
DAY. THE SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING.

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW ACCUMULATION 5 TO 8 INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS: NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES AT FREEZING WILL ALLOW
THE GREATER ACCUMULATION ON NON-PAVED SURFACES...HOWEVER
ROADWAYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SNOW-COVERED IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE
HEAVY SNOWFALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT.

Advisory expanded a bit also.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
906 AM CST THU FEB 11 2010

OKZ027-038-040-042-112315-
/O.EXB.KOUN.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-100212T0600Z/
GRADY-COMANCHE-GARVIN-PONTOTOC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHICKASHA...LAWTON...PAULS VALLEY...ADA
906 AM CST THU FEB 11 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT.

* TIMING: LIGHT AND SOMETIMES MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND WILL END BY EARLY EVENING.

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS: NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES AT FREEZING WILL ALLOW
THE GREATER ACCUMULATION ON NON-PAVED SURFACES...ROADWAYS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLUSHY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW MAY CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

[Thunder]

Live Wire: Livestreams From KOCO.com - Video - KOCO Oklahoma City

Amazing!!!

[venture]

Advisory moved up to include South Metro/Norman.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
107 PM CST THU FEB 11 2010

OKZ028>032-120315-
/O.EXA.KOUN.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-100212T0600Z/
MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWNEE...
SEMINOLE...HOLDENVILLE
107 PM CST THU FEB 11 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT.

* TIMING: LIGHT AND SOMETIMES MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING
MUCH OF THE DAY...AND WILL END THIS EVENING.

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS: NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES AT FREEZING WILL
ALLOW THE GREATER ACCUMULATION ON NON-PAVED SURFACES...
ROADWAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLUSHY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW MAY CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

[westsidesooner]

Interesting tidbit of weather trivia for any of you weather geeks (like me) out there.

If they get any measurable snow in the Florida panhandle today or this evening, there will be at least some measurable snowpack in all 50 states at the same time.........I bet that doesn't happen very often!!!!!!!!

Snow in all 50 states? New storm could make that true. - Yahoo! News

[Thunder]

frozen iguanas fell out of trees in Florida

[venture]

Quick update to the extended. Nothing major showing up now. Some weak systems here and there that will bring some rain or snow throughout the next couple of weeks. There are some indications that we are going to move into Spring mode during the last couple-few days of the month. Scattered/Isolated Storms will be possible across the state, especially west the 26-27th...and Central 28th. Way too far out to project any severe weather, but temps are projected to be up into the mid 60s with a decent amount of moisture. Instability doesn't look crazy at all yet, but it is still way too far out.

Just something to keep in mind, we'll get a better idea as we get closer. We could have another decent storm system before them...but indications are tonight that it'll miss us.

[Hollywood]

There are some indications that we are going to move into Spring mode during the last couple-few days of the month. Scattered/Isolated Storms will be possible across the state, especially west the 26-27th...and Central 28th. Way too far out to project any severe weather, but temps are projected to be up into the mid 60s with a decent amount of moisture. Instability doesn't look crazy at all yet, but it is still way too far out.

This is the best thing I have read on the forum in a very long time. Of course it is the weather so it can't be relied upon, but at least there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

[BrettL]

Yes sir, I'm ready to start chasing myself but I'll take the warm weather too.

[PennyQuilts]

Only in Oklahoma is the advent of roughly the equivalent of a nuclear attack. They could never understand my longing to be back home in the spring so I could smell the storms.

[venture]

So what I said yesterday...yeah. Anyways.

First blip...18th. Light precip will form across Northern OK during the evening, temps will still be above freezing so this will be mostly rain.

19th: Precip begins to spread across the state, mostly light showers at this point. By early morning, precip will be general along and north of I-40. Areas to the north of a line that runs about 30-50 miles north of I-40 will see precip change over to snow. Most amounts will be light will generally 1-2 inches in the NE and north central part of the state to around 4-6" in the NW. By evening, Northern OK will see a swatch of 5-8" of snow in most areas. Central 1/3rd of OK should start mainly rain until the very end and could see up a dusting or 1" of snow.

22nd - Weak system flies through. Temps will be below freezing in most areas, and we'll see a general 1-2" light snow fall in Central and SW OK.

23rd - Another quick shot of maybe an inch of snow in NW and NC OK, but temps begin to warm as this system moves away.

24th - We'll see light rain central will higher chances east. Temps still cool in the 40s.

26th - Light snow develops in the panhandles, nothing major in the morning. This will quickly move into NC Oklahoma by evening, leaving maybe an inch or two of snow in this path.

27th - Next stronger system moves into Texas, bringing light snow/sleet to Western OK by morning. Main batch of precip ejects into OK through the day. Heaviest amounts over 1" of liquid possible in far SC OK, with generally 0.5 to 1" of precip elsewhere...except for far Northern OK and far Eastern OK where amounts will be under 0.5". Precip type will be mixed. Ardmore, in the heaviest area, could see mostly rain, but the temp profile indicates sleet or snow could mix in quite a bit. Central OK will see much the same. The NW and Northern part of the state should stay 100% snow, but amounts won't be crazy as it looks now.

28th - Heaviest precip (over 0.5") is now east of a line from Enid to OKC to Ardmore, with over 1" in Eastern OK. Central sections will transition to mostly wet snow, with lighter snow to the west. Eastern OK will stay mostly rain as it appears. Much like the recent batch of wet snow, it cold come down fast enough to accumulate, but it will mainly be on elevated and grassy areas. Snow will tapper off throughout the evening, leaving about another 1-2" in areas. It could continue to linger into the new month just a bit (mainly in the north) but should be light.

[SkyWestOKC]

Any day with temps above 60 and a chance of thunderstorms sounds like a great day for me.

I can't wait for chasing season. I have a feeling we'll have a great season.

[Bunty]

And you won't mind much if your vehicle gets hailed on?

[Thunder]

Such a nice start for Valentine with plenty of snow on the ground. About an inch!

[SkyWestOKC]

And you won't mind much if your vehicle gets hailed on?

I like a little cellulite on my vehicle.

[venture]

Snow this morning was nice to see. I'm at the point, one more major winter storm and then I'm ready for the spring stuff to get going.

[Thunder]

One more isn't enough. We need to break the record or all of this was for nothing.

[BrettL]

Any of the other chasers wishcasting yet? I saw some CAPE in Oklahoma for the weekend and got excited. Soo ready for spring...

[ultimatesooner]

hail damaged vehicles get better gas mileage

[venture]

Here's an update to things down the pike...again this changes constantly until we get closer and models get a better handle on things. But...eh...it gives us something to look forward to I guess.

Near term, nothing major at all. Some chances for light rain will dot a few days coming up over the next 7. Really nothing major at all.

Tuesday Feb 23rd - Chance for light snow across the northern half of OK. Maybe 2-4" far north, closer to I-40 temps will warm and will see lower amounts and higher probability for rain mix or all rain.

Thursday Feb 25th - Rain/Storms likely across the eastern half of the state. Possibly some stronger storms in far SE OK where the heaviest rain will be (1"). Central sections will see rain up to a half inch in spots, light amounts as you go west.

Friday - Feb 26th. Next system moves in quickly. Heavy precip in North Central TX stretching up into Central OK. Precip amounts will range from 1/2" in OKC to near 1" along the Red River. Light amounts from SW to NW to Northern to NW to SE OK. Nature of precip will be one to watch. Forecast soundings do indicate that surface temps will be well below freezing, but upper air temps from 1400 to 3000 feet will be above freezing. This will likely mean a significant amount of freezing rain could take place if this verifies.

Saturday Feb 27th - Temps will continue to cool aloft through the overnight into Saturday morning. At this time all precip should be 100% snow in Central OK, with the chance for some sleet mixing in due to very shallow layer of 32 to 34 degree air around 2200-2700 feet. Precip amount sin Central OK will be around a half inch and this will extend to NE OK where amounts will approach 0.75 to 0.90". All precip should end quickly, except for far NE by evening.

Sunday February 28th - Quick shot of some light snow across OK. Accumulations general 1" or less.

That should just about do it for the month.

Did want to pass this on from OUN.

[Thunder]

Next week, we'll be very busy. :-)

[westsidesooner]

Friday - Feb 26th. Next system moves in quickly. Heavy precip in North Central TX stretching up into Central OK. Precip amounts will range from 1/2" in OKC to near 1" along the Red River. Light amounts from SW to NW to Northern to NW to SE OK. Nature of precip will be one to watch. Forecast soundings do indicate that surface temps will be well below freezing, but upper air temps from 1400 to 3000 feet will be above freezing. This will likely mean a significant amount of freezing rain could take place if this verifies.

Saturday Feb 27th - Temps will continue to cool aloft through the overnight into Saturday morning. At this time all precip should be 100% snow in Central OK, with the chance for some sleet mixing in due to very shallow layer of 32 to 34 degree air around 2200-2700 feet. Precip amount sin Central OK will be around a half inch and this will extend to NE OK where amounts will approach 0.75 to 0.90". All precip should end quickly, except for far NE by evening.

I'd been meaning to post and ask you about that timeframe, I'd seen mention of it on st, and on the local stations. Unfortunately I've been a lil under the weather (lol) and haven't been online much. Some posts on other sites seem to think that will be a very active period, with lots of moisture available for whatever systems pass through.

Please.......no more ICE.......I just put the generator back in the garage after the last near miss, that lil """"" is HEAVY and I really don't want to pull it out again.

[Bostonfan]

Here's what I have a problem with. David Payne just said that a powerful storm was coming in next Wednesday that (if the track stayed at what it is now) would give us heavy snow. So I go to the NWS site and this is the last sentence in their discussion:
"DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK."

WTH? You can't get any different than that. No offense to Venture and others, but this makes it sound like anyone with half a brain could say whatever they wanted to when forcasting, and it would be just fine.

[Thunder]

Bostonfan, don't pay much attention to NWS. lol The storm is coming and it will be here, no matter how delayed NWS is.

[venture]

Here's what I have a problem with. David Payne just said that a powerful storm was coming in next Wednesday that (if the track stayed at what it is now) would give us heavy snow. So I go to the NWS site and this is the last sentence in their discussion:
"DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK."

WTH? You can't get any different than that. No offense to Venture and others, but this makes it sound like anyone with half a brain could say whatever they wanted to when forcasting, and it would be just fine.

I think it comes down to what model that particular forecast favors. The 12Z GFS is still coming in, so I'll have thoughts on that soon. However, if you look at the NWS forecast...they are favoring the ECMWF which is a bit faster with this next stretch of rain. It dries things out by Sunday, where as GFS goes a bit slower and dries out on Monday.

For mid week another system comes out, but with the new 12Z GFS, on Wednesday AM most of the moisture will be restricted to the far southern tier of counties in OK but gone by evening. Other than that, pretty dry next week. The 12Z run isn't done yet, but looks dry up through next weekend.

This is one of the reasons why I always state that models change constantly and the long range outlooks should be taken lightly. Things are always going to have a large margin for error until the models have enough time to get a hold on thing.