February '10 Weather Discussion

[venture]

OUN's Evening Update...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
942 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2010

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE FOR RAIN
CHANGING TO OR MIXING WITH SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
OK JUST AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE GROUND EXPECTED TO BE STILL ABOVE FREEZING...LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS UNTIL POSSIBLY AFTER
NOON. SO...ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO QPF AND SNOW
AMOUNT GRIDS TO MATCH WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED THUS FAR AND WHAT IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE WAS
THE INCREASE IN QPF IN THE SOUTHEAST.

POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
EVERYWHERE BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST. PRECIP AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
MOVING EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO SHOULD MAKE IT TO WESTERN OK AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

[blangtang]

maybe this will be the winter that people actually learn how to drive (properly!) in this stuff

[venture]

maybe this will be the winter that people actually learn how to drive (properly!) in this stuff

We could only hope.

[venture]

Oklahoma County and the portion of the Metro north of I-40 will be getting upgrades to a Winter Storm Warning shortly. South will be a Winter Weather Advisory.

[BrettL]

Very heavy snow in northern Edmond right now. Prob already an inch on the ground.

[Thunder]

Venture, come on back. You got a whole lot of explaining to do to them. LOL!

I knew it would be much more than your prediction. :P

[FritterGirl]

We got nothing in downtown OKC. After the initial morning drive flurries, there is nothing on the ground except water. Was that it, or is more on the way?

[venture]

Venture, come on back. You got a whole lot of explaining to do to them. LOL!

I knew it would be much more than your prediction. :P

How so? I'm looking out the window and saw about 4 snow flakes and that was it. Radar is mostly bare back to the west. Like I said...

[Bostonfan]

Venture, come on back. You got a whole lot of explaining to do to them. LOL!

I knew it would be much more than your prediction. :P

This is a joke right? Venture nailed it.........again.

[westsidesooner]

We got about 2" in Bethany. It came down really realy hard for about 1 hour between 7:30-8:30. It was 34 degrees at the time. Some of the biggest flakes I've ever seen, some of them were easily 1 1/2" across, close to 2". However its melting just as quickly and now theres only about 1" on the grassy services. I called my brother on who was east of downtown and he said it wasn;t even enough to cover the ground there. Hopefully it'll al melt before the cold air gets here this afternoon and ices up the roads.

[OKCisOK4me]

We got nothing in downtown OKC. After the initial morning drive flurries, there is nothing on the ground except water. Was that it, or is more on the way?

YES! This is funny! I'm looking at the Devon Tower cam online over at my work here on NW 23rd & Meridian where we got about 1 1/2" of snow and it's green grass in the Myriad Gardens still! Too funny..

[venture]

Warnings are all cancelled early, as they really were warranted in the first place. LOL

Next batch coming in from the SW is mostly rain with some wet snow mixed in.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
118 PM CST MON FEB 8 2010

OKZ004>006-009-010-014-021-027>036-038-040-042-090000-
/O.CON.KOUN.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-100209T0000Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-ELLIS-WOODWARD-ROGER MILLS-BECKHAM-GRADY-
MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-
JACKSON-COMANCHE-GARVIN-PONTOTOC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...ARNETT...
WOODWARD...CHEYENNE...ELK CITY...SAYRE...CHICKASHA...PURCELL...
NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...HOLDENVILLE. ..HOLLIS...
MANGUM...HOBART...ALTUS...LAWTON...PAULS VALLEY...ADA
118 PM CST MON FEB 8 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING.

* TIMING: SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN AND WET SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

* MAIN IMPACT: SCATTERED ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE INCH OF WET
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS NEAR 2
INCHES. WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING UNTIL EARLY EVENING... THE HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD MAKE A FEW ROADWAYS SLUSHY AND SLICK.

* OTHER IMPACTS: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR TONIGHT
ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS. WIND CHILLS WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY AREAS. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE
ANY REMAINING WATER AND SLUSH ON ROADWAYS TO FREEZE OVERNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW COULD CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

[venture]

All advisories for the state have been cancelled early.

[Bostonfan]

TV stations still have reporters out and about giving everyone road condition reports. One guy just said, "the roads aren't slick, but watch out for the puddles."

Thanks!

[Uncle Slayton]

What a freakin' bust, and probably the last gasp of winter, too. Bring on severe storms season, maybe it'll be more active than the past couple years.

[adaniel]

TV stations still have reporters out and about giving everyone road condition reports. One guy just said, "the roads aren't slick, but watch out for the puddles."

Thanks!

But bostonfan don't you know that 6,000 people a year die in puddle related accidents? Not a joking manner if you ask me!

In any event, snow is being predicted on Thursday, doubt it will amount to much. I am just about over the blah gloom and cold. Plase all I want is a little sunshine!

[venture]

What a freakin' bust, and probably the last gasp of winter, too. Bring on severe storms season, maybe it'll be more active than the past couple years.

I personally wouldn't call it a bust, just a learning experience for local forecasters when it comes to winter weather. They were so hung up on the potential dynamics in the atmosphere, that they dismissed the forecasted precip amounts. No model for the last few days had total precip amounts that suggested some of these extreme snow totals. Today reminded me of a severe weather bust day, where the dynamics were all coming together...but nothing really happened. Unfortunately, you can't really treat winter weather the same as a severe storm day.

[Uncle Slayton]

I personally wouldn't call it a bust, just a learning experience for local forecasters when it comes to winter weather. They were so hung up on the potential dynamics in the atmosphere, that they dismissed the forecasted precip amounts. No model for the last few days had total precip amounts that suggested some of these extreme snow totals. Today reminded me of a severe weather bust day, where the dynamics were all coming together...but nothing really happened. Unfortunately, you can't really treat winter weather the same as a severe storm day.

In what is probably a gross oversimplification, I never quite understood how they could tell you which rows of Aunt Fenestrine's garden the tornado would hit (the corn is toast, but the radishes and carrots will be unscathed...), yet, they can't hit a bull in the ass with a bass fiddle when it comes to winter precip.

[Bunty]

What a freakin' bust, and probably the last gasp of winter, too. Bring on severe storms season, maybe it'll be more active than the past couple years.

No thanks. Being under a blizzard warning is a lot less stressful than being under a tornado warning while on radar a big black blob with a red hook on it approaches your area.

[Uncle Slayton]

No thanks. Being under a blizzard warning is a lot less stressful than being under a tornado warning while on radar a big black blob with a red hook on it approaches your area.

That's usually when I jump in the truck and drive in the general direction of the hook.

[OKCisOK4me]

No thanks. Being under a blizzard warning is a lot less stressful than being under a tornado warning while on radar a big black blob with a red hook on it approaches your area.

I want thunderstorms! I just don't want big hail (I park outside) or tornadoes. A kicka$$ storm with a lot of rumblers would satisfy me!!

[venture]

Pretty slow period coming up. Thursday isn't anything to worry about, so looking long term. Next major blip will be on Feb 22nd. One thing off the bat, surface temps aren't guaranteed to be below freezing, so any mention of freezing rain could end up being straight rain due to surface temps.

Feb 22nd AM - Storm system will begin to move in. Light amount of precip will be spread through the western part of the state, around a tenth of an inch Central to 1/2 inch in NW OK. Precip types will be mostly snow west to snow/sleet/freezing rain central.

Feb 22nd PM - Moisture will continue to spread across the state by remain light. Amounts general a quarter of an inch or less. Precip will be mixed across the state. Mostly snow/sleet Central, Freezing Rain/Sleet west.

Feb 23rd AM - Precip continues with amounts less than a half inch, with the heavier amounts to the SW. Precip around Central sections will be Sleet/Freezing Rain. SW sections will be pure rain and above freezing. NW will see Sleet/Snow mix.

Feb 23rd PM - Precip amounts pick up. Up to 0.80" of liquid from Central into South Central OK, with over 1/2 inch of liquid in most areas of Central and Western OK, and less than a half inch elsewhere. Central will be a mix of Sleet/Snow/Freezing Rain/Rain. Western OK will see mostly rain, maybe some sleet/snow mixed in. Northern OK will be mostly snow.

Feb 24th - Most precip moves out except for far southern OK and SE OK. Most precip will likely be a mix of sleet/snow at this point though some rain may mix in during the afternoon.

Way to early to say if this will happen, be a major winter storm, or just a lot of rain. This is mainly to make aware that we could see a strong system come through around this time frame. I'll probably update this later on in the week as we get a bit closer.

[Bunty]

That's usually when I jump in the truck and drive in the general direction of the hook.

Then you must mean something like this below. At that time it was Feb. 10, 2009 and Stillwater was under a tornado warning. By the way, the first anniversary of that fascinating winter day in meteorology affecting central Oklahoma is almost here.

[venture]

This is the winter weather advisory for tomorrow...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
403 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010

OKZ041-043-045>048-050>052-TXZ086-089-090-110615-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0006.100211T1200Z-100212T0600Z/
MURRAY-COAL-JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-
WICHITA-ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SULPHUR...COALGATE...WAURIKA...
ARDMORE...TISHOMINGO...ATOKA...MARIETTA...MADILL.. .DURANT...
WICHITA FALLS...ARCHER CITY...HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY...
HENRIETTA
403 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY
TO MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL BEGIN THURSDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AROUND 2 INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS: SNOW MAY BE MIXED WITH RAIN. RAIN AND MELTED SNOW
MAY REFREEZE THURSDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

[Bunty]

Finally a winter statement that doesn't include us--YET.