February '10 Weather Discussion

[Andrew4OU]

Be prepared for Monday! Major storm on the way!

Major? Did something change between now and what venture said earlier?

[sacolton]

Yup. This new storm is going to top the other two!

[bandnerd]

Winter Storm Watch...not again...

[OKCisOK4me]

My bad for missing this!

Long term forecasts are a general guide on want to look forward to. These are the CPC forecasts coming up: Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Color Maps

It does appear temps will be a bit below normal during Spring, while precip should be near average. Does this imply more severe weather or at least just more unsettle weather? Typically coming off of a strong El Nino, we will see a wetter spring. Our last strong El Nino was in the 1997-1998 season, and we did see a fairly active severe weather season. For 98-99 though we were in a moderate La Nina. The other year that may jump out is 2003, and going into that year we had a moderate El Nino.

So what does this all mean? Not really anything. LOL We do typically have more moisture in the region, so if all the other 4000 factors come into play, we could have a more active storm season than usual. I also like to fall back on, weather is based around a law of averages. Things will balance at at one point...down years in severe weather or a colder summer, will always be offset at some point.

Thanks for the reply. Read it on my phone last night but didn't much feel like logging on--it's much slower than a computer!

I agree that there are many variables. Especially when you consider the fact that if 99 was a La Nina year and we had that horrible tornado, you never know.

I don't know if my memory is fading but I just don't remember very many active storm seasons the past few years and I'm hoping this advanced outlook will be an indicator of a great season--not tornado wise but just storm wise!

[USG '60]

Is there a site for Oklahoma weather statistics?

[venture]

The watch text...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
345 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2010

OKZ018>020-022>030-033>036-038-061745-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WS.A.0002.100208T1200Z-100209T0000Z/
KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-
GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
COMANCHE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...
CORDELL...ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...
CHANDLER...CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE... SHAWNEE...
HOLLIS...MANGUM...HOBART...ALTUS...LAWTON
345 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

* TIMING: RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MIXING WITH SNOW EARLY MONDAY AND
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TAPER OFF MONDAY
EVENING.

* MAIN IMPACT: WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE AND ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS MAY OCCUR NEAR AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE-40. THIS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON TRAVEL
AND COMMERCE.

* OTHER IMPACTS: NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY...LEADING
TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN
WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS FOR A TIME MONDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

[venture]

So basically here is the gist. We are going to have a fairly narrow window where we will see moderate to heavy snow. The amounts are not expected to be massive, but winds will be there this time. Models have been slowing the system down some, so that's allowing the timing to work out with the colder air getting further south. Like most systems, this isn't even on shore yet, so onces weather balloons are able to get readings, we'll see models get a better handle on things. Below are the upper air forecast soundings and the 6 hour precip accumulation maps. Please keep in mind that most areas in SC and SE OK will be all rain, so these are not 100% snow fall totals.

GFS...

Central OK is looking for a general 2-4" accumulation with this, but surface temps will be just above freezing. However, there is no layer of warm air above the surface (at least currently pointed out) that could raise havoc with precip types.





NAM...

Is a bit more aggressive with precip amounts in certain areas. It is also slightly colder.

[westsidesooner]

I think back to those winters up north, with a good deal of snow and such...but the spring. If you are all about a green lawn, you better be worshiping this weather. This is helping put moisture back in the ground better than any heavy rain could.

We have about 5-6 inches to go to break the record I think, so plenty of time to make that up. It is kinda like that year with the tropical system over OK...when you are gong to break records - what was it...23 days of nonstop rain?...might as well make it big.

I meant to mention all the benefits of the moisture during the winter months. The fire season shouldn't be nearly as bad.....(if we have one at all) as it was last March and April. You know the floks in MWC and Choctaw have got to be thankful for that. I'll take a good snow over a firestorm anyday.

Funny how things change here from year to year. Last year we had tornadoes in the metro on Feb 10th, then the fires in April. Gotta love (or hate) Oklahoma for it's variety.

However if the snow keeps falling, and the ground stays white like it looks like it could for another week or two with some models calling for another good snow on Thursday Meteogram Generator it's going to make it tough on the early blooming plants and even toughter to lay down some pre-emergent. I'm fully expecting weeds when the snow finally melts. Heck I still need to get the leaves outta the flower beds so the bulbs....which are just days from blooming look decent.

Really wonder what the spring storm season will be like....with all the soil moisture we shouldn't be as dependent on the gulf to get things going when/if it ever warms up.

[OKCisOK4me]

I meant to mention all the benefits of the moisture during the winter months. The fire season shouldn't be nearly as bad.....(if we have one at all) as it was last March and April. You know the floks in MWC and Choctaw have got to be thankful for that. I'll take a good snow over a firestorm anyday.

Funny how things change here from year to year. Last year we had tornadoes in the metro on Feb 10th, then the fires in April. Gotta love (or hate) Oklahoma for it's variety.

However if the snow keeps falling, and the ground stays white like it looks like it could for another week or two with some models calling for another good snow on Thursday Meteogram Generator it's going to make it tough on the early blooming plants and even toughter to lay down some pre-emergent. I'm fully expecting weeds when the snow finally melts. Heck I still need to get the leaves outta the flower beds so the bulbs....which are just days from blooming look decent.

Really wonder what the spring storm season will be like....with all the soil moisture we shouldn't be as dependent on the gulf to get things going when/if it ever warms up.

For the most part, I think I understand what you're saying...but not really...

[Joe Daddy]

Unless I misunderstood, I took the comment to mean that winter weather is better than sweater our rears off and gasping for air because the humidity and heat is so oppressive.

You are right, lol! Brain fart on my part. I prefer to sweat myself. I came from a much more humid climate than here in OKC, so to me, the summers are quite pleasant and lower in humidity.

[venture]

18Z NAM has warmed a bit and precip really isn't really going to push warning criteria. We'll see what the next few runs do.

[venture]

Looking at the 00Z models, I'm not impressed at all for any heavy precip. Some areas could see 2-4" up to 6"...but nothing warning worthy. This could probably be covered with Winter Weather, Snow, and Blowing Snow advisories.

[venture]

Warning out for northern sections.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
340 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2010

OKZ004>017-021-071745-
/O.UPG.KOUN.WS.A.0002.100207T1800Z-100209T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KOUN.WS.W.0002.100208T0000Z-100209T0000Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-BECKHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...MEDFORD...
PONCA CITY...ARNETT...WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...ENID...PERRY ...
CHEYENNE...TALOGA...WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...WATONG A...ELK CITY...
SAYRE
340 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM CST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING: ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...HEAVY
AND POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED HIGHER
TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
THIS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON TRAVEL AND COMMERCE.

* OTHER IMPACTS: NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY...
LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. THIS MAY
RESULT IN WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

[Jim Grennan]

It's a great time to own a car wash.

[venture]

Models still are not showing a lot of overall snow fall, but there is that strip just NW of the Metro where we could see the main snow band setup. Depending on how long that sticks around will determine how much snow those areas get. Right now, I'm really hard pressed to say most areas will get an inch of snow if anything. Previous thoughts are still the same...2-4" over a general area NW of I-44, maybe some locals up to 6" or so under the main snow band. Along and south of I-44...you'll see some snow flakes, how much...maybe 1-2" if that.

[Bunty]

The winter storm warning has been extended to cover the northern half of Oklahoma, but not including Oklahoma County. But the CNN weather map only showed snow accumulation for nw Oklahoma.

[venture]

The winter storm warning has been extended to cover the northern half of Oklahoma, but not including Oklahoma County. But the CNN weather map only showed snow accumulation for nw Oklahoma.

Yeah, they did that this morning at 345AM (see post above). This is not a major winter storm by any means. There will be some snow, a good deal of wind...but nothing even close to what the last two major storms were. I think by this afternoon/evening we'll see the warnings replaced by advisories in a lot of areas and the parts south of I-44 dropped completely. Of course, if a band sets up in those areas than it is different...but you can't nail those down this far out yet.

[Jon27]

What are the chances that the metro or specifically Yukon will get an inch of rain or equivalent snow?

[venture]

What are the chances that the metro or specifically Yukon will get an inch of rain or equivalent snow?

Getting under a heavy shower/storm and sure - you can get an inch. General area of a half inch for the next 24-36 hours seems about right in most areas.

[adaniel]

Models still are not showing a lot of overall snow fall, but there is that strip just NW of the Metro where we could see the main snow band setup. Depending on how long that sticks around will determine how much snow those areas get. Right now, I'm really hard pressed to say most areas will get an inch of snow if anything. Previous thoughts are still the same...2-4" over a general area NW of I-44, maybe some locals up to 6" or so under the main snow band. Along and south of I-44...you'll see some snow flakes, how much...maybe 1-2" if that.

I'm just looking at the temperature forecast and it seems that it will be snowing while being at or even slightly above freezing tomorrow. So when they say that OKC will get 2-4 inches, does that mean what will actually fall from the sky or what they believe will accumulate?

I'm just curious because I have a date at Iguana Lounge tomorrow night, and I would hate to cancel it for something that won't be that bad.

[kevinpate]

Y'all can keep it all. I won't get my wish, but I could use nuttin' but winds and sun for a couple of weeks to dry out this swamp/lake that used to be my yard.

[venture]

OUN's evening discussion indicates that the Metro and remaining counties in the Winter Storm Watch will get covered by a Winter Weather Advisory. Tulsa has already gone this route with their southern tier of "warned" counties.

Most of the accumulation will be on the grass and elevated surfaces. Now, if the snow does fall pretty hard in a snow band - then it can overcome the melting on the ground and start to slush up. I don't think I can stress enough, this is nothing to worry about. Roads will get a bit slick, with some snow/slush at times. However, just take it easy when conditions warrant and everything will be fine.

Kevin - Doesn't look like that will happen anytime soon. One thing about the weather, I get to figure out where I need to bring in more dirt to fill or where to put drainage in for parts of the yard.

[westsidesooner]

At this point I'm only expecting about 1" of snow........a real curbduster. But it'll still be cold, windy and gloomy. It's getting old.

[venture]

At this point I'm only expecting about 1" of snow........a real curbduster. But it'll still be cold, windy and gloomy. It's getting old.

That might be too much still. LOL

[PennyQuilts]

Y'all can keep it all. I won't get my wish, but I could use nuttin' but winds and sun for a couple of weeks to dry out this swamp/lake that used to be my yard.

We've had that same conversation at our house for the past few days.