February '10 Weather Discussion
Winter months are two for two with major storms, will we go three for three or is it on to severe weather season? Probably both the way it is going. LOL
Here is an EARLY outlook for what is in the models right now. Recent snowfall/ice will likely impact high temps in most areas the next few days, so this might bleed into the first couple days of Feb.
Monday Feb 1 Late Evening - Slight chance for a shower (maybe mixed with snow) or two along the northern tier of counties. Temps will be mostly in the 30s across the state with some 40s south.
Feb 3 into 4th - Wave of moisture moving up from the SW. Looks like most of OK could skate by dry, except for far western OK and the Southern sections as well. Temps mostly in the 40s...getting into the 50s by next weekend.
Feb 9th - Begins what appears to be a pretty active week in weather. Light rain possible across most of the western half of the state early. Chances go up in the evening where some areas of southern OK could see a half inch of rain. Low in the upper 40s, high in the mid 50s.
Feb 10th - Overnight moderate to heavy rain increases across the state. A lot of areas could see well over a half inch to an inch of rain. Temps will be well above freezing, so no wintery precip expected now. Surface low will swing into Northern TX by evening bringing very heavy rain into most of the state. Amounts could easily be over an inch for evening rain totals in SC and SE OK into C OK. Temps steady near 50.
Feb 11th - Heavy rain begins to push out to the east and north. Some heavy amounts still expected in northern and Eastern OK. By evening should be down to just light rain. Instability may be enough for a couple storms with the precip this day. Low around 50 high in the upper 50s.
Feb 12th - Light rain still possible across the eastern 2/3rds of the state, heavier amounts east. By afternoon maybe some light rain scattered about as the next system moves into TX. Low in the 40s high in the low 50s.
Feb 13th - Chances for light rain continue as more heavy rain hits Texas. Should be ending though by evening and setup for a dry second half to the weekend. Temps in the 40s.
Beyond the 15th - Models don't go this far yet, but a major system will be moving into the four corners region on the 15th. This should put it in OK around the 16th or 17th if it holds together.
Total precip for the 10th - 12th time period. GFS can get crazy with precip amounts later on in the forecast period, but the thing to take away is that we can probably expect some pretty heavy amounts during this period regardless.
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Originally Posted by Thunder
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