January '10 Weather Discussion

[Bunty]

So? Cold gets colder. And the coldest part of winter comes later this month. At least Venture's guesses don't, so far, turn up another blizzard.

[westsidesooner]

At least we aren't alone in our misery. I recently found this pic on stormtrack. It shows the entire island of Great Britian covered in snow and ice. Simply amazing. I have relatives who live in Edinburgh...and they said they can't rmember a winter this harsh. Luckily our weather has returned to near normal....it's amazing how nice 40's and 50's can feel after a cold snap like the one we just went through.

UK's Big Snowfall, As Seen From Space | Universe Today

[mugofbeer]

Thats an amazing photograph. I wonder how long its been since that happened last? I heard that about 2/3 of the continental US had a white Christmas this year. I am sure that's far more than normal, too.

[westsidesooner]

Yeah, I thought so too. The article states that its the most snow GB has seen in 50 years.....it really looks like something from a sci-fi movie. I found the last paragraph of the story interesting:

"North America is also experiencing heavy snows and cold temperatures. NASA's Earth Observatory website says that a possible contributor to the persistent cold and snow across much of the Northern Hemisphere’s mid-latitudes in December 2009 and January 2010 could be the fact that the atmosphere was in an extreme negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The AO is a seesawing strengthening and weakening of semi-permanent areas of low and high atmospheric pressure in the Arctic and the mid-latitudes. One consequence of the oscillation’s negative phase is cold, snowy weather in Eurasia and North America during the winter months. The extreme negative dip of the Arctic Oscillation Index in December 2009 was the lowest monthly value observed for the past six decades"

[mugofbeer]

Seems from articles I've read lately, India east to China is too. I dont know about the southern hemisphere and their summer.

[venture]

Looks like two chances are potential for severe weather this week. First will be Wednesday, mainly east of I-35. Second will be early part of this weekend, in the same general area. Shouldn't be anything extreme, but its getting to be that time of the year again.

[Thunder]

............. Too soon! We need more snow first before we'll accept tornadoes.

[drum4no1]

We have had enough snow............for me at least

[venture]

I would like to see some more myself. This time though, I want a nice gradual snowfall...give us about 5-6 inches...but no wind. Just a nice picture perfect winter scene. Then have it actually stick around more than a couple days before the grass starts showing again.

[Bunty]

I'd sooner have those snows when it's 32 or 33 degrees so it will only stick to the grass and not the sidewalks and streets.

[westsidesooner]

I agreee with V and Bunty. One more nice 4"-6" snow before spring. But one where the snow sticks to the grass and tree limbs...not the street....a nice wet snow with no wind. Sometime during the olympics would be nice to add to the visuals. Let it stay on the grass and trees for a couple of days then warm up to 60 and melt. Then I'll be ready for spring..........

[Thunder]

I want another blizzard with the same impact or worst. It's quite exciting. Just have the governor to declare that all businesses in affected areas to close and limit driving to emergencies. Anyone caught driving be fined $1,000 payable to the state of Oklahoma to be used toward roads improvement.

[westsidesooner]

Seems from articles I've read lately, India east to China is too. I dont know about the southern hemisphere and their summer.

I did a little research and came up with some interesting articles. First off Australia has been having one of the hottest summers on record. To counter that I just read that some areas of se Austraila just recieved a rather rare summer snow.

The Canadian Press: Flurries hit southeast Australia as towns record their first-ever summer snowfalls

Amazing weather worldwide this year.

And while much of the northen hemisphere has been much blelow normal this winter thats not true for the polar region. The Arctic Oscillation has actually made the polar area warmer than normal and allowing less sea ice than normal.

Google Image Result for http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/41000/41576/AMSRE_SSTAn_M_200911.png

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/i...timeseries.png

Just when we think we have mother nature figured out......

[Bunty]

I want another blizzard with the same impact or worst. It's quite exciting.

To that statement, I bet a lot of people think, "been there and done that."

[drum4no1]

I want another blizzard with the same impact or worst. It's quite exciting. Just have the governor to declare that all businesses in affected areas to close and limit driving to emergencies. Anyone caught driving be fined $1,000 payable to the state of Oklahoma to be used toward roads improvement.

That would be nice but some of us work in fields that dont close for anything (media)

[venture]

Severe Risk today will be mainly SE OK.



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 AM CST WED JAN 20 2010

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX INTO THE SRN
OZARKS/LWR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL SRN STREAM JET PATTERN...MARKING SRN FRINGE OF VAST NE
PACIFIC UPR LOW...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU. LEAD IMPULSE IN LONG
SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE
MID/UPR MS VLY TODAY AS STRONGER UPSTREAM TROUGH NOW EXITING AZ
CONTINUES E TO THE TX PANHANDLE. THE SYSTEM LIKELY WILL AMPLIFY
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER WRN AR EARLY THU AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURS
OVER THE SRN RCKYS AHEAD OF POTENT PACIFIC IMPULSE NOW EVOLVING NEAR
150W. IN THE MEAN TIME...SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW NEARING 125W APPEARS
TO BE SPLITTING MORE OR LESS AS ITS PREDECESSORS DID EARLIER THIS
WEEK. A SUBSTANTIAL PART OF THE SPLIT SHOULD HEAD ESE TOWARD THE PT
CONCEPTION AREA LATER TODAY... WHILE THE NRN PART MOVES NNE ALONG
THE ORE CST.

AT LWR LVLS...SATELLITE AND SFC DATA SUGGEST THAT SEASONABLY MOIST
AIR /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S F/ WILL SPREAD NNE FROM
E TX INTO THE SRN OZARKS AND LWR MS VLY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT ...ALONG
LEFTOVER BAND OF SWLY LOW LVL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPR IMPULSE NOW
IN MO. THIS MOISTURE INFLUX SHOULD STRENGTHEN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY
THU AS SWLY LLJ REFORMS AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING UPR IMPULSE.

...LWR MS VLY/CNTRL GULF CST INTO THE SRN OZARKS/LWR TN VLY...
ELEVATED STORMS NOW OVER THE LWR TN AND MID MS VLYS SHOULD WEAKEN
LATER THIS MORNING AS ASSOCIATED UPR SYSTEM CONTINUES NEWD AND
DEAMPLIFIES. FARTHER SW IN WARM SECTOR OF EVOLVING LEE CYCLONE OVER
THE SRN HI PLNS...SFC HEATING...LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW...AND
RELATIVELY COOL MID LVL TEMPS /MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 C AT 500 MB/
SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE SFC-BASED DESTABILIZATION /SBCAPE TO 1500 J
PER KG/ FROM E TX INTO THE ARKLATEX AND LWR MS VLY.

INCREASING INSTABILITY...CONFLUENT LOW LVL FLOW... AND INCREASING
UVV WITH APPROACHING UPR TROUGH SHOULD TRIGGER FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF NRN/ERN TX INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF LA
AND AR BY LATE IN THE DAY. OTHER STORMS MAY EVOLVE IN ZONE OF
PERSISTENT LOW LVL WAA ON ERN EDGE OF MOIST AXIS OVER THE LWR MS
VLY/CNTRL GULF CST.

50+ KT SW TO WSWLY DEEP SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DMGG WINDS AND HAIL. TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE
STORMS IN LA/SW MS...WHERE 0-1 KM SRH OF 300 M2/S2 WILL EXIST.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING DEEP SHEAR AND UVV WITH CONTINUED EWD
MOTION OF SRN PLNS UPR IMPULSE SUGGESTS POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF THE
ARKLATEX AND LWR MS VLY STORMS INTO PERHAPS TWO SEPARATE QLCSS.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT...THIS ACTIVITY
COULD POSE A THREAT FOR DMGG WIND AND ISOLD TORNADOES N AND E INTO
PARTS OF TN AND AL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU.

[adaniel]

I agreee with V and Bunty. One more nice 4"-6" snow before spring. But one where the snow sticks to the grass and tree limbs...not the street....a nice wet snow with no wind. Sometime during the olympics would be nice to add to the visuals. Let it stay on the grass and trees for a couple of days then warm up to 60 and melt. Then I'll be ready for spring..........

I would love for nothing more than a gentle snowfall, the kind you see in the Northeast. But this is Oklahoma, and you will probably see snow with 50+ mph winds and 0 degree wind chills...no fun. Plus between the weak economy and the fact that we got 2 years worth of snow in one storm, most municipalities around here have blown through their winter storm removal budget.

So for the sake of economics, bring on the sunny and 60

[venture]

Whoops sorry.


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
FORT WORTH TEXAS TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF TEXARKANA ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 1...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY
ACROSS PART OF NORTH CENTRAL TX/SOUTH CENTRAL OK ALONG WARM FRONT IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. RELATIVELY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ABOVE MOIST PBL ARE CONTRIBUTING TO UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR CURRENTLY IN THE
35-45 KT RANGE IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AND LOW LCL
HEIGHTS AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH WILL ENHANCE THREAT FOR A
FEW TORNADOES WITH DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORM.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0026
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 210017Z - 210145Z

NORTH OF EXISTING TORNADO WATCH 2...SEVERE THREAT /PRIMARILY IN THE
FORM OF HAIL/ MAY INCREASE THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL OK INTO WESTERN AR. MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REFLECT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED
MAXIMA MAKING A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE...STORMS HAVE SHOWN
SOME INCREASING TREND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL UPSWING IN
COVERAGE/VIGOR POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN OK INTO WESTERN AR THROUGH
THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG/NORTH
OF A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH A SURFACE
LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ENE IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
LAYER TONIGHT. WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING
AND THE TORNADO RISK IS NON-ZERO ACROSS EASTERN OK/WESTERN
AR...MARGINAL MOISTURE/CURRENT SURFACE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS IMPLY
THAT STORMS MAY TEND TO BE ROOTED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN OK/WEST CENTRAL AR EVEN IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. NONETHELESS...STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT/AMPLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR AT LEAST A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WATCH.

..GUYER.. 01/21/2010


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
649 pm cst wed jan 20 2010

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Cleveland county in central oklahoma...
Central mcclain county in central oklahoma...

* until 730 pm cst

* at 649 pm cst...national weather service radar indicated a severe
thunderstorm near washington...moving northeast at 30 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...

* locations in the warning include cole...goldsby...lake
thunderbird...noble...norman...southeastern oklahoma city...stanley
draper lake...stella and washington.

This includes interstate 35 between mile markers 96 and 117.

[Bunty]

Notice that there is another bunch of storms, smaller, coming in from the southwest.

[rod4soonrs]

Morgan is hyping a BIG WINTER STORM for next thursday!

[westsidesooner]

Morgan is hyping a BIG WINTER STORM for next thursday!

I just saw that too, I'll have to watch the other channels at 6 to see what their forecasts are. Metrogram shows some indication of snow next week.....Thursdayish....

Meteogram Generator

It's hard to believe that we're only 1/3rd of the way through winter. With days like today it's easy to start thinking about spring!!!

[rod4soonrs]

At 6 he said several winterstorms are lining up, first one is next thu.

[venture]

AMG ITS THE END OF THE WORLD.

Anyway. 0Z model run last night had a decent snow setup. Then it has been decreasing from there with each model run. The 18Z does highlight something around the 1st of Feb...but way too far out to make mention of anything right now.