Tropical Weather Discussion

[westsidesooner]

Finally the Atlantic tropical weather scene is starting to heat up. TD 2 is now just west of the Cape Verde islands and is moving west at 13mph. There are two more areas of interest in the Atlantic....but for now they dont appear likely to strengthen into storms. Track Tropical Depression Two / Stormpulse / Hurricanes, severe weather, tracking, mapping & National Hurricane Center

Too bad theres nothing in the gulf.....Texas really needs the rain.

[possumfritter]

westsidesooner,

You are sooooo right, Texas is in desperate need of rain. Let's hope it doesn't come with a damaging hurricane, unless it stays well off the coastline.

[westsidesooner]

Yeah....I was looking at pics of Lake Travis this morning. Or whats left of it. It reminded me of the drought they had in western Colorado a few years ago. With any luck the storms west of Dallas will continue south and give central Texas some rain tonight.

[venture]

Looks like Tropics definitely get cooking now.

GFS: gfs 2009081112 Forecast slp Java Animation
TD2/Ana-to-be: Will continue west until about half way through the central Atlantic and then will die out.

A new low will form in the same area as TD2 is now. This will take a more westerly track and looks like it will strike the Windward Islands as a Hurricane.

CMC: cmc 2009081112 Forecast slp Java Animation

TD2/Ana: Moves west and then recurves in the central Atlantic as a strong TS.

New Low: Continues westerly, but not nearly as fast as GFS and much weaker.

GFDL: GFDL two02l 2009081112 Forecast slp Java Animation

TD2/Ana: Struggles to get established and follows a WNW path and is north of the Islands by the 16th. Model does suggest it will fluctuate in strength but approach hurricane strength at the end of the period - but moving away from land.

New Low: Follow same path and reaches tropical storm strength by falls apart before reach the islands.

NOGAPS: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi...dtg=2009081106

TD2/Ana: Like the others, slowly moves WNW and NW at the end of the period. It is slow to strengthen but gets stronger at the end. NGP tries to develop another low south of Ana in the same period, that it quickly absorbs.

New Low: Not present in the model runs.

[bluedogok]

Yeah....I was looking at pics of Lake Travis this morning. Or whats left of it. It reminded me of the drought they had in western Colorado a few years ago. With any luck the storms west of Dallas will continue south and give central Texas some rain tonight.

We could really use it, since we ended the flooding rains of March 2007 we are now over 40 inches short of average rainfall for that period and Lake Travis is 40 feet below the "full" level, which is about 20 or so feet below where the water was that March. Since that time is seems most of the storms have diverted around the Austin area, mostly heading north of Waco. We are also on Day 52 of 100+ temps and something like 18 new record highs this summer. The lowest high temp in the last 2 months was 93, most of the non 100 days have been 99, I saw 111 on the thermometer in my car on the way home by Lake Travis and it is usually only a degree or two high.
It's been so bad we have headed to Galveston and Port Aransas a couple of times to cool off. I am REAL tired of it, I am ready to move to the beach or Colorado.

The "Sometimes Islands" have become the Sometimes Peninsula and there is only one boat ramp left in operation but another 10 feet or so will take that out of commission. It looked bad last spring, now it just looks sad, all of the rivers coming into the lake are barely small streams. We are ready for something to hit in this area. We are at "exceptional drought" level but they say we are headed into an El Nino Fall so the hope is we will start seeing some wet weather.

US Drought Monitor - Texas

[westsidesooner]

Looks like Austin is getting a small break this afternoon, heres hoping it rains all night.

Meanwhile it looks like td2 is struggling to strengthen....and Ventures models seem to be pretty accurate so far. There is another low forming behind td2 thats looking fairly impressive, at least for this season. The later in the season it gets without a hurricane the more I worry that when one forms it will be strong. Andrew syndrom I guess. Something to keep an eye on this week.

[venture]

Here are the spaghetti plots for TD2/Ana-to-be.

[bluedogok]

Looks like Austin is getting a small break this afternoon, heres hoping it rains all night.

Well, we had some good rain in some areas this afternoon but it quit about 7:00. Still the brief respite from the heat was nice. I was doing a site walk out in the west side of town and when the storms came we were up on a rise under a canopy and the cooling breeze sure felt nice. We still need some of those tropical storms to head this way without getting too big and damaging to the coast.

[venture]

Looking at the models so far, here is a roughly and average of what I think they will do if either system can continue to survive. I will say the models split where some develop TD2 into a hurricane by the end of the period and dissolve what should be TD3 this afternoon....while the others do the exact opposite. So take it with a grain of salt. TD2 looks crappy right now, so it could just fall apart...which has happened before. The new TD3 doesn't bode well for the islands, but still a long way out.

Green: Tropical Depression Winds <39 mph
Yellow: Tropical Storm Winds 39-73 mph
Red: Hurricane Winds 74 mph or higher

[venture]

Last Advisory out for TD2, not enough convection to properly classify the system, so for now just a tropical low. NHC is point out that the models due to try to strengthen it, so we'll have to wait and see what happens. The forecast graphic i posted shows the potential if shear does back off and it can reorganize. Otherwise, forecast will shift to what will become TD3.

[bluedogok]

From the weather broadcast tonight it looked like TD3 could hold together awhile but you never know with them that far away.

The last public boat ramp at Lake Travis was closed yesterday.

[venture]

Several models are now bringing Invest 90L...or what will be TD3...to major hurricane status in 4 days. Also some hints that it will track a bit more north than what I put. Below is the new forecast track that I'm getting out of the models. I also added in the info from the longer range models that go out 10 days. Purple shading denotes major hurricane with over 115 mph winds. I've put in weakening as it passes Hispaniola due to the mountains there that always play havoc with tropical systems. It'll definitely be one to watch considering where models are putting it towards next week.

[westsidesooner]

Below is the new forecast track that I'm getting out of the models. I also added in the info from the longer range models that go out 10 days. Purple shading denotes major hurricane with over 115 mph winds.

The forecast models you are posting aren't showing up on my pc. When I quoted your post there was this address: Which doesnt appear in your post on my pc until I clicked "quote"

]http://www.anvilcrawlers.com/pics/tropics-81409.png

but it doesnt show up while viewing the thread.....I did get to see it when I copied and pasted. Ive had the same problem trying to post graphics with a (.png) on it. You know I enjoy your posts. Am I the only one who cant see them???

I also looked on anvilcrawlers and couldnt find your post there....maybe you could explain to me what Im doing wrong, or where Im not looking.

Thanks WSS

[possumfritter]

westsidesooner,

All I came up with was "anvil lightning" pics last night. Rather fantastic pics I might add.

[adaniel]

Several models are now bringing Invest 90L...or what will be TD3...to major hurricane status in 4 days. Also some hints that it will track a bit more north than what I put. Below is the new forecast track that I'm getting out of the models. I also added in the info from the longer range models that go out 10 days. Purple shading denotes major hurricane with over 115 mph winds. I've put in weakening as it passes Hispaniola due to the mountains there that always play havoc with tropical systems. It'll definitely be one to watch considering where models are putting it towards next week.

Yikes! If this model is true the gulf coast needs to be very worried. I'll add that I'll be in Houston from the 21st through 27th. I know that 2 weeks is VERY long to forecast out but do you see anything in the models to show that it could miss the GOM?

Its rather ironic but News ran a story last night about how, much like this season, the 1992 season got off to a late start but the first storm that formed (Andrew) was also born off the coast of Africa and turned out to be a doozy.

[venture]

Not sure WSS. I'll start posting them at JPGs just so there aren't any problems. I use Chrome for a browser, so I'm not sure if there are issues in any other browser.

So going to do a run down on things. The identifiers we are going to use here are 02L (formerly TD2) and 90L which is the 2nd low behind what was TD2.

02L Discussions



This morning's NHC Discussion on it: 1. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...SLOW REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

My Stuff: Activity with the low has increased again late this morning. Though things are down slightly from the peak, there are still some very high and cold cloud tops with it. It also seems shear has relaxed some as well. I would probably think we'll see advisories recommence on TD2 at some point this weekend, if not sooner if regeneration occurs rapidly.

Model forecasts are a bit split on this. NOGAPS (navy model) seems to favor this one of 90L. It has it strengthening into a hurricane in the next few days and making a run at the SE US coast sometime between the 21st and 24th. CMC, GFDL, GFS models dissipates the low in the next day or two. HWRF and FSU-GFS does develop the low into a tropical storm, peaking out around 60 mph winds and taking it on a WNW to NW back to WNW course through 19th. FSU-GFS has a more pronounced recurve out into the atlantic towards the end of the period.

For the graphic, I"m going to show the 3 possibilities with this. NOGAPS will be "Model Pack 1", The next 3 will be Model Pack 2, and the remaining 2 will be Model Park 3.



90L Discussions



Morning NHC Discussion: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

My Thoughts: It continues to look pretty strong on visible and IR. This really seems to be the one to watch right now.

CMC develops the low into a hurricane over the next few days impacting the northern Islands (sub note, it also develops another tropical cyclone after 90L). GFDL follows this and has it as a major hurricane by the 19th. GFS agrees as well, takes a bit more southerly path placing it right over the islands including Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. I'll go more into the long range stuff with GFS in a bit. HWRF the same, a little easier on the intensity of the storm, still a Cat 1 or 2 storm by the time it is near the islands. NOGAPS is the only stand out here that has the system fall part. So will be discarding it for now and since everything else matches good - will only present on track for the model forecast.

USA Impacts of course start with the storm coming very close, if not hitting, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. GFS has also done a different take and curves the storm early, not allowing it to make to the gulf...but. Yeah. Looks like landfall in SE Florida as a major hurricane is the call right now. It is always important to note this is a good 9-10 days out. The storm isn't even together yet, and things can change quickly. We've seen models switch from a Central/Eastern Gulf Coast landfall to a Florida one now. There isn't anything to say tomorrow we'll see things swing it out to sea or keep it going west into the Gulf. There does seem to be a trough digging in through the Plains into the SE towards landfall time, so this is why we've seen it pushed into Florida. If the trough speeds up, it can take it out to sea. If it slows down, it'll go further west.

[venture]

Tropical Low 2 (02L)...showing signs of some convection development on the west side, but also showing signs of strong easterly shear exposing part of the center.

Tropical Low 3 (90L)...similar to 02L. Strong convection development on the west side with some exposure on the east. Seems like it is trying to wrap around or develop new convection on the east side. Things should be improving as the shear weakens the next day or two.

[venture]

Advisories have been restarted on TD2.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1230 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO HAS REGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DATA FROM
A NOAA G-IV MISSION...NOAA BUOY 41041...AND A RECENTLY-RECEIVED
ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION IS WELL-DEFINED. THE BUOY
ALSO REPORTED 1006.4 MB AND NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 19 KT.
ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS NOW PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER LONG
ENOUGH TO CONSIDER THIS SYSTEM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH A SPECIAL DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND WINDS FROM ASCAT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/13. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE
SYSTEM IN A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. IN A FEW
DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NORTH...WHICH COULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MOVE
MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. FOR SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...NOW THAT
THE SYSTEM IS BEING INITIALIZED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE CHANGES
IN THE GUIDANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF GUIDANCE CYCLES.

RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF AN
UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THEREAFTER...AN UPPER TROUGH
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD INDUCE SOME WESTERLY
SHEAR. GIVEN THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY SHOWS SLOW
INTENSIFICATION THOUGH 48 HOURS AND LITTLE CHANGE AFTER THAT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM/HWRF
MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE INTENSITY PROBABILITY
TABLE SHOWS ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BE A
HURRICANE AFTER 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0430Z 14.6N 45.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 14.7N 47.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 15.0N 51.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 16.0N 54.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 17.0N 58.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 19.5N 65.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 22.0N 71.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 25.5N 76.5W 50 KT

[venture]

TD 2 has been upgraded to TS Ana ("Ah-na") and advisories have started for TD 3. Will do a run down of the models here a bit later.

[venture]

Setting up pages for tropical systems to try to put all resources in one spot.

Tropical Weather - AnvilCrawlers

Ana Information will be at: Ana - AnvilCrawlers

TD 3...Now Upgraded to TS Bill is at: Bill - AnvilCrawlers

[venture]

High potential of TD 4 developing off the Florida panhandle. Will post more in the morning with a full model run down on everything.

[venture]

Tropical Storm Claudette off the FL gulf coast will be making landfall later today.





TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT CLAUDETTE HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY. BASED ON A MAXIMUM
FLIGHT LEVEL WIND 54 KT MEASURED AT AN ELEVATION OF ABOUT 2500
FEET...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT. THE 12-HOUR
FORECAST INTENSITY IS ALSO ADJUSTED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITONAL STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE WIND
RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND THE
CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1800Z 29.1N 85.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 30.2N 85.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 32.1N 87.1W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 18/0000Z 34.0N 88.2W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
48HR VT 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

[venture]

Another potentially active tropical week coming up. Developing system north of Puerto Rico could have a US impact. CMC model has landfall as hurricane in North Carolina in 4 days. GFDL doesn't develop it and keeps it well off coast similar in track to Bill. GFS develops it as a strong tropical storm and takes it slowly along the same course of Bill. It is off the coast of the NC Outer Banks in 4 days, before moving NNE and making landfall in Nova Scotia this coming weekend/early next week as a hurricane. HWRF follows this same path. NGP is in between the CMC and GFS. Tropical Storm winds expected in NC Outer Banks, then moving NNE with some effects to coast Mass and a potential landfall in SE Maine to Nova Scotia as a hurricane.

Two other systems also projected to form over the central and eastern Atlantic towards next week. CMC predicts both. GFDL does as well. GFS, HWRF, and NGP do not.

[venture]

Advisories have started on Tropical Storm Danny.



TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...
WITH REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATING THE
SYSTEM WAS BEST DEVELOPED BELOW 12000 FT. QUIKSCAT DATA AND A FEW
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER SHOW
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...WHICH IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.
THE STORM HAS BEEN TANGLED UP WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FOR THE PAST
24 HR...AND THE STRUCTURE AS MUCH RESEMBLES A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSES FROM
FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUGGEST THAT DANNY IS MARGINALLY MORE
TROPICAL THAN SUBTROPICAL...HENCE THE DESIGNATION OF TROPICAL
STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/16. DANNY IS ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA AND
SOUTHWEST OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTER EAST OF BERMUDA.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER DANNY GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH
DECELERATION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE SCALE
MODELS AGREE THAT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
MOVING EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE
DANNY TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES.
WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE SCENARIO...THERE IS ENOUGH SPREAD IN
THE TRACK GUIDANCE TO MAKE IT UNCERTAIN WHAT LAND AREA DANNY MAY
AFFECT. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST DANNY TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 72 HR AND MOVE UP THE
U. S. EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE THE GFS...HWRF... AND GFDL SHOW A
MORE EASTERLY TRACK THAT KEEPS DANNY OFFSHORE UNTIL IT REACHES THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THESE EXTREMES AND IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE U. S. EAST COAST...AND
ANY DEVIATION FROM THE TRACK COULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN WHAT
AREAS GET IMPACTED BY DANNY. THEREFORE...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO
FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS NORTH AND SOUTH OF DANNY CONNECTED BY A CYCLONIC
SHEAR AXIS. THIS IS NOT A IDEAL PATTERN FOR STRENGTHENING...AND
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE 24-36 HR FOR THE
ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. BASED ON THIS AND THE
CURRENT ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 36 HR. IT THEN SHOWS A FASTER
STRENGTHENING FROM 36-48 HR AS CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
AFTER 48 HR...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EASTERN U. S. TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASED
SHEAR AND THE BEGINNING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR DANNY TO REACH 65 KT IN 72 HR...THEN BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS WEAKER
THAN THE FORECASTS OF THE GFDL AND HWRF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 24.9N 70.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 25.8N 72.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 26.8N 73.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 28.1N 74.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 28/1200Z 30.1N 75.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 29/1200Z 36.0N 73.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 30/1200Z 45.0N 67.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 31/1200Z 52.0N 53.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[westsidesooner]

Danny is still having a tough time getting convection to form around its center of rotation and appears to be wandering a little off the forecast path. It could make it interesting if it can strenghen for those on the immediate outer banks of NC tomorrow evening. Past that it loos like it might take a swipe at cape cod on late Saturday. Still not to much to get worried about, but as Bill showed us last week it just takes a minimal hurricane to be deadly.

If I remember correctly this weekend will be the 4 year anniversary of Katrina. What a slow recovery thats been. sigh