Severe Weather Discussion - August 10 through ??

[venture]

Storm development starting to occur in Oklahoma and Canadian counties. Nothing out of control yet, but things are starting to pop up. Also front is still way out in NW OK...and it is expected to light up as it gets closer.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1933
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 200610Z - 200745Z

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE W OF WW 719
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

05Z MESOANALYSIS AND CURRENT PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATE
DEEPER WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S-CNTRL KS WSWWD THROUGH
THE OK PNHDL INTO NERN NM. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRECEDES THE COLD
FRONT FROM ONGOING STORMS OVER LINCOLN COUNTY WWD TO S OF GAG. AIR
MASS TO THE S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS WARM /PARTICULARLY OVER
SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX/ AND MOIST WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG.

MODIFICATION OF 00Z OUN SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS
SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS GRADUALLY INCREASING...BUT
FORCED ASCENT ALONG DEEPER...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY SUPPORT
THE WWD DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THROUGH CNTRL INTO WRN OK EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS SCENARIO IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH LATEST NAM/RUC
GUIDANCE AND SHOULD IT OCCUR...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT MORE OF A LINEAR
CONVECTIVE MODE. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

..MEAD.. 08/20/2009

[venture]

If anyone has any interest in understanding why Wednesday didn't produce for severe weather...check this out: 8/19/2009 DISC: OK - Stormtrack

Met Students, Meteorologists, Chasers, and even some people from SPC in there talking about it. Some of the discussion does get detailed, but definitely educational.

[westsidesooner]

Thanks V, That was a very interesting though technical read. (especially with trying to read it this early) I cant pretend to understand most of it but parts of it I did. Its good to know that we werent the only ones scratching our heads. It just goes to highlight what should be Oklahomas weather moto. Expect the unexpected. Isnt that why we all find it so fascinating???

It looks like substanance from the jet was the issue from what I can read. The photo of the orphaned updraft was interesting. I saw that photo on the news....at least someone got an interesting photo out of the bust.

Heres hoping the rest of our second season isnt so disappointing.

[Thunder]

Honestly, I did not really expect for a storm to be tornadic, but then again, it has been that way for most of this year. Maybe next year, we will get lucky to force buildings to be blown apart to make way for the new.

[venture]

Honestly, I did not really expect for a storm to be tornadic, but then again, it has been that way for most of this year. Maybe next year, we will get lucky to force buildings to be blown apart to make way for the new.

Ummm buildings blowing apart I wouldn't consider lucky. So you may want to revisit your position on that.

As far as the tornadic probability yesterday. The conditions were actually crazy good for a few strong tornadoes, but several factors came in to play. As described in the thread I linked - I'll summarize. Essentially the lower levels were good, the mid and upper were bad where the winds were mainly unidirectional. As soon as the storms moved off the outflow boundary, subsidence killed them off quickly. The only good areas for lift were along the boundaries, once they moved away the air was sinking and the particles couldn't sustain an updraft.

[westsidesooner]

Thanks for the translation V.

[Thunder]

Venture, there is a lot of worn down buildings that are just left there for nothing. The only way to force improvement is mother nature taking her course. I agree that injury and death is bad, but a lot of these old buildings just have to go. For example, people will be cheering when a tornado whip apart HPM.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1973
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OK...NRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261952Z - 262215Z

ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW
COULD BE LOCALLY DAMAGING. HOWEVER...COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
WARRANT A WW.

SURFACE MAP SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM NW OK SWD INTO NWRN
TX...JUST W OF A NARROW MOIST AXIS. DEEP MIXING ON THE DRY SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN CAP EROSION AND AN EXTENSIVE FIELD OF
HIGH BASED CU...WHILE THE MOIST SIDE REMAINS LARGELY CLOUD FREE.

FORCING IN THIS AREA IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND FOCUSED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...AND WIND FIELDS ARE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE
WITH 850 MB-300 MB MEAN WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. THUS...ANY STORMS
THAT FORM WILL BE PULSE IN NATURE...WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG MICROBURSTS AS DCAPE VALUES ARE IN EXCESS
OF 1600-1800 J/KG.

IF ANY STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE HIGHER
THETA-E AIR TO THE E...MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...AND DOWNDRAFTS...MAY
RESULT.

..JEWELL.. 08/26/2009

[Thunder]

The storm coming thru the past hour was a direct hit here. All I can say is...wow!

Just got a message from mom. Lee broke thru the barrier from the laundry room and ran to her bedroom, trying to get under her bed.



He's a large doggy (mentally puppy) and must only stay in the laundry room when he comes in at night, during the storm, and hot temp.

[venture]

Definitely some electric storms. Next one on the way from the west.