Severe Weather Discussion - August 10 through ??

[Thunder]

Only in Oklahoma!

[venture]

Main area of elevated development right now (mainly high based showers) from Cherokee to just north of Fairview. These are pushing off to the east pretty fast right now, so things aren't quite there just yet.

[westsidesooner]

Ok I give up....whats a PV streamer? Pacific Vapor?

Regardless...this looks like the best setup, shear wise in awhile. Too bad its gonna be close to or after dark when it reaches the metro. sigh...

[Thunder]

Mr. V, I noticed that the NWS have the outflow boundary south of I-240 for a while and just now I checked, they moved it back up to I-40. Just wondering, do the storms have to form directly on this line or how far from both sides of the line? Does a tornado have to form directly on the line or anywhere near the line? If a tornadic storm was to move away from the line, rather than staying on the line, does it maintain rotation?

[venture]

Today's setup you are going to see storms form along or ahead (north) of the outflow boundary. The best environment for tornado development will be those that you see the inflow area/hook riding the outflow boundary. Once a storm moves off of it, depending on how strong it is, it'll probably move into a less sheared environment and the risk will go down. So the greatest risk is going to be in the area very close to the outflow boundary...especially on the north side.

[venture]

Ok I give up....whats a PV streamer? Pacific Vapor?

Regardless...this looks like the best setup, shear wise in awhile. Too bad its gonna be close to or after dark when it reaches the metro. sigh...

potential vorticity.

[westsidesooner]

Thanks V

Looks like the OFB has backed up to around a Guthrie/ Kingfisher/sw Garfield county line. Cold front still in Kansas just passing Garden City/Hays.

[venture]

Storm near Fairmont and Breckridge is showing rapid development now. We'll need to watch that one. This is jut to the east of Enid. Hail core is now development with it.

[Karried]

What happened to the Tornado watch.. it seems to have disappeared from my TV.

[venture]

Its still there.

[HSC-Sooner]

What happened to the Tornado watch.. it seems to have disappeared from my TV.

I think Karried was wishing that it had disappeared from her TV.

[venture]

First storm is just about dead. New storm development not showing up just yet. Should get more as the cold front approaches NW Oklahoma.

Update 645PM: Watching Harper County for some signs of new development.

[venture]

First candidate to go severe is in southern Harper County. Large hail now being indicated to the NW of Fort Supply.

[Thunder]

Still waiting for storms to come here.

[Luke]

These are gonna be middle-of-the-nighters aren't they? Or are they even expected to pass through our neck of the woods?

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
817 pm cdt wed aug 19 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Extreme northern ellis county in northwest oklahoma...
Southeastern harper county in northwest oklahoma...
Western woods county in northwest oklahoma...
Northwestern woodward county in northwest oklahoma...

* until 915 pm cdt

* at 816 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm 6 miles north of fort supply...moving east at
10 mph. Another thunderstorm which was intensifying was located 10
miles west of alabaster caverns...also moving east at 10 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include alabaster caverns state park...
Camp houston...fort supply...freedom and mooreland.

[venture]

The way it looks, the 3 storms will be moving SE along the general track of the boundary. Sometimes when we see this setup, the storms will combine into a single complex and race SE. We'll see what happens.

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
905 pm cdt wed aug 19 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Southeastern harper county in northwest oklahoma...
Extreme northwestern major county in northwest oklahoma...
Southern woods county in northwest oklahoma...
Woodward county in northwest oklahoma...

* until 1000 pm cdt

* at 905 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated
severe thunderstorms along a line extending from 4 miles southwest
of alabaster caverns state park to 10 miles west of woodward...
Moving southeast at 15 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of half dollars...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include alabaster caverns state park...
Mooreland...quinlan...sharon...tangier...waynoka and woodward.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1930
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0918 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N-CNTRL AND NWRN OK / SRN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 714...

VALID 200218Z - 200245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 714 CONTINUES.

ISOLD TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN
INTO N-CNTRL OK FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH LOWER TORNADO POTENTIAL
ACROSS EXTREME S-CNTRL KS AND CNTRL OK WHERE CONVECTIVE INITIATION
APPEARS IMPROBABLE AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM BARBER COUNTY
KS S-SEWD INTO MAJOR COUNTY OK. THE AIRMASS IMMEDIATELY EITHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY IS CHARACTERIZED AS VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN OK WITH THE 00Z OUN RAOB SEEMINGLY
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS OVER N-CNTRL/NWRN OK. KVNX RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STORMS EXHIBITING SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS LOCATED ACROSS WOODWARD COUNTY W OF AFOREMENTIONED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE VCI VWP DISPLAYS VEERING BUT ONLY MODEST LOW
LEVEL SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3 KM. THIS MAY BE HAMPERING THE
EXISTING STORM/S ABILITY TO AQUIRE LOW LEVEL ROTATION. HOWEVER...IF
STORMS CAN CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND INTERACT WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALONG/BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...AN ISOLD
TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE. WITH THAT SAID...INCREASING CINH DUE TO
DIURNAL STABILIZATION OF THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER WILL ACT TO LESSEN
THE TORNADO THREAT WITH TIME--WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLD DMGG WIND
GUST BECOMING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW REPLACEMENT AS PLUME OF STRONGER HEIGHT
FALLS OVERSPREADS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

[Thunder]

Playing a multiplayer game to pass the time. Slow weather day...

[venture]

Things seem to be fading out, but still warnings going out.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
954 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN DEWEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
WESTERN MAJOR COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHERN WOODWARD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

* AT 954 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES EAST OF
QUINLAN TO 6 MILES NORTH OF SHARON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CESTOS...CHESTER...FAIRVIEW...
MOORELAND...MUTUAL...ORION...QUINLAN...SEILING...S HARON AND VICI.

[venture]

New storm near Hennessey...will just watch it and see what happens.

[venture]

Some thoughts on tonight from OUN earlier.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
922 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

.UPDATE...
CAP HAS HELD DOWN CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER... A SMALL CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS
FINALLY FIRED IN NW OK NEAR SFC PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONT TO GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER... THE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY IN KANSAS WILL MOVE INTO THE FA AND EVENTUALLY
OVERTAKE THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL STORMS AND MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS LLJ DEVELOPS AND FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA... WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT FROM KANSAS INTO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL OK. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR NW OK ACTIVITY. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO
SHOW CURRENT TRENDS. WILL SEND UPDATES SHORTLY.

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-200500-
ALFALFA-ARCHER-ATOKA-BAYLOR-BECKHAM-BLAINE-BRYAN-CADDO-CANADIAN-
CARTER-CLAY-CLEVELAND-COAL-COMANCHE-COTTON-CUSTER-DEWEY-ELLIS-FOARD-
GARFIELD-GARVIN-GRADY-GRANT-GREER-HARDEMAN-HARMON-HARPER-HUGHES-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSTON-KAY-KINGFISHER-KIOWA-KNOX-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LOVE-MAJOR-MARSHALL-MCCLAIN-MURRAY-NOBLE-OKLAHOMA-PAYNE-PONTOTOC-
POTTAWATOMIE-ROGER MILLS-SEMINOLE-STEPHENS-TILLMAN-WA****A-WICHITA-
WILBARGER-
1045 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

.NOW...
...REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. AT 1045 PM...THE STORMS EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN KINGFISHER COUNTY TO NEAR STILLWATER. BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED.

MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

[venture]

Looks like some pretty strong winds picking up south of Langston to Meridian to the east of Guthrie. Shear marker is popping on it on GR, but we'll see if it lasts more than 1 scan.

UPDATE: 1150PM - Storm intensity with the complex is increasing. Hail to nickels and winds 45-50 mph seem to be developing with the complex.

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1200 am cdt thu aug 20 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Northern lincoln county in central oklahoma...
Southeastern logan county in central oklahoma...
Southeastern payne county in central oklahoma...

* until 100 am cdt

* at midnight cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated
severe thunderstorms along a line extending from perkins to 9 miles
west of carney...moving east at 45 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...
Heavy rainfall...

* locations in the warning include agra...avery...carney...cushing...
Davenport...kendrick...parkland...perkins...stroud and tryon.