Severe Weather Outlook - Mon 7/13 through Mon 7/20

[westsidesooner]

If theres two complexs tonight I'll bet one goes east of us (west metro) and the other west. Its just been our luck lately. Not that I miss the hail everyone else has been dealing with.

[venture]

New Day 1 is out and there is a whopping 1 line commenting on OK and that is just to say a damaging wind/hail threat should be here before 7AM tomorrow.

[bretthexum]

New Day 1 is out and there is a whopping 1 line commenting on OK and that is just to say a damaging wind/hail threat should be here before 7AM tomorrow.

Yeah I was hoping for more detail than that. I guess we'll have to wait for the MCD's

[venture]

First MCD has been issued for Western Kansas - these will be the storms that will roll in to OK later tonight.

Updated outlook:

...PLAINS STATES...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING THROUGH WRN SD/NWRN NEB...WHILE ANOTHER IMPULSE WAS MOVING
THROUGH ERN CO. EXPECT BOTH SYSTEMS TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL NEB SWD INTO KS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO SEWD MOVING MCS/S...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE INCREASING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS/CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LESSEN THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE MCS TO MOVE INTO ERN NEB/KS...WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
WIND DAMAGE FROM WRN/CENTRAL KS S/SEWD INTO OK. SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL SURFACE BASED
STORM DEVELOPMENT.

[venture]

Upgrade to Moderate risk for Northern and NE Oklahoma, including the Northern sides of the Metro.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...
SEVERAL IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE SSEWD INTO THE
SRN PLAINS TONIGHT. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN AXIS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM WCNTRL KS SWD INTO PARTS OF SRN
PLAINS. SEVERAL SEGMENTS OF A COMPLEX STRUCTURED MCS APPEAR LIKELY
TO MOVE SSEWD INTO THE SRN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE LATEST WIND PROFILERS IN CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS INDICATE 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ARE IN THE 35 TO 40
KT RANGE. THE WICHITA PROFILER SHOWS THE MOST IMPRESSIVE WIND
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT 5 KM. THIS SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT KEEPING STORMS DISCRETE FOR AWHILE. STEEP LAPSE RATES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WCNTRL KS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH A FEW REPORTS OF HAIL OVER 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER. IN ADDITION...WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND
200 M2/S2 IN WCNTRL KS...A TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST WITH THE MORE
DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MCS WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR AS THE STORMS MOVE SSEWD INTO AN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET. A FEW VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR
WITH BOWING SEGMENTS IN THE DEVELOPING SQUALL-LINE LATE THIS EVENING
OR OVERNIGHT. THE NAM/GFS AND NAMKF SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
BE CENTERED FROM NW-NCNTRL OK NWD ACROSS SE KS WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS TRACKING SEWD ACROSS THE WICHITA AREA
INTO THE TULSA AREA. HOW FAR WEST THE SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND IS
STILL IN QUESTION. THE SEVERE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN NW KS SHOULD
CONTINUE SWD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN KS BUT TURN SSEWD ALONG THE AXIS OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY INTO THE FAR NERN TX PANHANDLE LATER THIS
EVENING.

[bretthexum]

What a beast of a storm by Wellington, KS. Nice supercell

[venture]

Yup...developing MCS.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1633
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0826 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KANSAS...NE OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 607...

VALID 210126Z - 210300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 607 CONTINUES.

SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...ARE ONGOING WITHIN
LOW-LEVEL WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING...THE TENDENCY PROBABLY WILL BE FOR ACTIVITY TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY BASED IN ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION TO THE NORTH/EAST OF
THE SURFACE FRONT. BUT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY
THROUGH 03-05Z...ON THE NOSE OF A 30+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING NORTHWESTERLY HIGH LEVEL JET
STREAK IS EXPECTED TO AID STORM CONSOLIDATION AND UPSCALE GROWTH
INTO A LARGE STORM CLUSTER. AND...DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALREADY APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF AN ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CAPABLE OF
GENERATING STRONG SURFACE GUSTS. IT MAY BE A WHILE YET BEFORE THIS
OCCURS...ACCOMPANIED BY A SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION INTO
OKLAHOMA...BUT TRENDS OF THE ONGOING STORM APPROACHING THE CENTRAL
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AREA ARE ALREADY BEING MONITORED FOR
ADDITIONAL WW OR WWS SOUTH OF WW 607.

[venture]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 609
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 845 PM UNTIL
400 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF PONCA CITY
OKLAHOMA TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF MUSKOGEE OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 606...WW 607...WW 608...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL NOW IN EXTREME S CNTRL KS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SSE...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS FORM IN ERN OK AS LLJ
STRENGTHENS AND VEERS INVOF WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT IN THAT AREA.
INCREASING CIN WITH NIGHTFALL MAY CAUSE TO STORMS TO BECOME SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED WITH TIME...AND NEAR-SFC SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST. BUT
COMBINATION OF EXISTING DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS...FAVORABLY
ORIENTED BOUNDARIES...MOIST LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT...AND STRENGTHENING
MID/UPR LVL FLOW SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SUSTAINED
STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/WIND AND
ISOLD TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 34030.

[venture]

9PM Radar Update....development back by Coldwater, KS now, this will likely be the area to watch for metro impacting. Additional severe storms moving into Grant County with hail up to 3" in diameter right now.

[westsidesooner]

What a beast of a storm by Wellington, KS. Nice supercell

That storm had one of the most impressive radar presentations Ive seen in a long time about an hour ago. Wow. I want pics..

And check out the forward motion on the storms west of GC Ks. They are flying south.

[venture]

Radar Update. Storms continue developing near Coldwater and now into NW Oklahoma.

Chat room will be running tonight: BlaB Lite 4

Be aware i'm not going to be doing a continuous chat, at least not until weather gets closer to the the metro. However, I will post warning updates and other notices in there.

[Thunder]

I'm in the chat room. I might take a short nap (usually 1 or 2 hours after work). I'm home now.

Karrie, did you know there is a Tornado Watch?

[Thunder]

A few minutes delay. ImageShack is not behaving, so I have to use my Photobucket account.



Another radar closer to the storms to show the developments popping up west of the Enid storm.

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
948 pm cdt mon jul 20 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Garfield county in northern oklahoma...
Southwestern noble county in northern oklahoma...

* until 1100 pm cdt

* at 946 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated
a dangerous severe thunderstorm 8 miles north of hunter...moving
south at 25 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Damaging hail up to the size of tennis balls...
Wind gusts to 65 mph...

* locations in the warning include bison...breckenridge...
Covington...douglas...enid...fairmont...garber...h ayward...
Hunter...kremlin...lucien...north enid...vance air force base and
waukomis.

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1002 pm cdt mon jul 20 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Grant county in northern oklahoma...
Alfalfa county in northwest oklahoma...

* until 1100 pm cdt

* at 1001 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated
severe storms scattered along a line from 10 miles northwest of
burlington to 7 miles east of amorita to 6 miles east of pond
creek...moving south at 20 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to two inches in diameter...
Damaging wind gusts to 65 mph...

* locations in the warning include aline...amorita...burlington...
Byron...carmen...cherokee...driftwood...goltry...g reat salt plains
lake...helena...ingersoll...jefferson...jet...lamb ert...
Manchester...medford...nash...pond creek and wakita.

[venture]

Radar Update

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1634
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK...TX/OK PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 210303Z - 210400Z

AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF WW 608 SOON.

A SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE FRONTAL SURGE HAS ADVANCED THROUGH MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS. DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE MAY INCREASE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAIN VERY WARM AND FAIRLY MOIST
BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IS RATHER MODEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHEAR BENEATH 30-40+ KT
500 MB FLOW IS STRONG AND SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. WHILE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING SUPPORTIVE OF UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH SEEMS
MORE FAVORABLE TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST OF REGION...POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST LARGE HAIL/LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS APPEARS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOW
AND 05-06Z.

..KERR.. 07/21/2009

[Thunder]

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1011 pm cdt mon jul 20 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Western major county in northwest oklahoma...
Woods county in northwest oklahoma...
Eastern woodward county in northwest oklahoma...

* until 1145 pm cdt

* at 1011 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated
severe thunderstorms along a line extending from 4 miles north of
capron to 12 miles northeast of freedom to 5 miles southwest of
alabaster caverns state park...moving southeast at 25 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of half dollars...
Damaging wind gusts to 65 mph...

* locations in the warning include alabaster caverns state park...
Alva...avard...camp houston...capron...chester...dacoma...
Freedom...hopeton...mooreland...mutual...quinlan and waynoka.

[Thunder]

The storms appear to be on the way to merge.

Interesting how different radars pick up on different storm formation.

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1026 pm cdt mon jul 20 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Western garfield county in northern oklahoma...
Eastern major county in northwest oklahoma...

* until 1145 pm cdt

* at 1026 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm 6 miles northwest of hillsdale...moving south
at 30 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Damaging hail up to the size of baseballs...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include ames...carrier...drummond...
Hillsdale...isabella...lahoma...meno and ringwood.

[venture]

Live Chat: BlaB Lite 4

Severe Tstorm Watch including Metro Incoming...

WW 610 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 210330Z - 211100Z
AXIS..115 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55NNW GAG/GAGE OK/ - 20SW OKC/OKLAHOMA CITY OK/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 100NM E/W /39E LBL - 15SW OKC/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 35030.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 610
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 1030 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF GAGE OKLAHOMA TO 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 607...WW 608...WW 609...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS/SUPERCELLS NOW IN SW KS...AND ALONG CNTRL PARTS
OF THE KS/OK BORDER...SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY SSE THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AS MID LVL NWLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND DEEPENS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AMPLIFYING LARGER SCALE TROUGH. GIVEN EXISTING
THERMODYNAMIC SETUP AND EXPECTED VEERING/STRENGHTENING OF LLJ...A
THREAT FOR ISOLD SVR HAIL/WIND SHOULD SPREAD FARTHER SSE AS ACTIVITY
EVOLVES INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTER. INCREASING CIN SHOULD
ULTIMATELY WEAKEN STORMS LATER TUESDAY MORNING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 35030.

[venture]

Radar Update

Large complex is taking shape finally. Most storms are moving due south. Immense amount of lightning with these, so that will be a major risk. Large hail up to 3" is also possible in several areas right now.

[Thunder]