Severe Weather Outlook - Mon 7/13 through Mon 7/20

[venture]

Hey we're back...



Current Conditions - Mesonet


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Current Radar Mosaic


Latest Upper Air Sounding

[venture]

Indications of the ridge backing out to the west finally and setting up a classic Northwest flow pattern for the next 7 days...ish.

Monday (today) - Complex should move through Northern and NE Oklahoma later in the day. May get an outflow boundary to give us some hope on Tuesday. Tuesday and Wednesday look pretty dry otherwise.

Thursday - Chance for some scattered storms in the area.

Friday - Complex of storms should form in SW Kansas over night and move into Western/Central OK in the morning.

Saturday - Should be dry.

Sunday - Looks like front settles in, rain develops along in throughout most of Oklahoma. Complex will get going in Southern Oklahoma and move into Northern Texas.

Monday - Chance of a complex rolling in later from Kansas. Precip estimates are crazy high right now for early Tuesday morning (7/21). Some where in the area of 2-4 inches of rains through most of OK.

Wednesday - Friday: Scattered stuff around.

Okay yeah I went really far out at the end here...oops.

[Thunder]

There's some storms poppin up near Stillwater. Indications that we're in the beginning stage of the heat dome breaking down and shifting away.

[westsidesooner]

I sure hope you're right about the rain next week. The possibility of the 2-4" you mentioned for Tuesday sounds awesome. Next Wednesdays my birthday so thatd be a great start to the party. I noticed the chance for mcs's next weekend and week but was afraid to mention it yet......afriad I might jinx it. lol But then again Im planning on going to the lake this weekend so itll probably rain like crazy.

Im tired of watching complex after complex of storms slide across Kansas then shoot thru Arkansas. Any particular day you think might be the best for a big complex V?

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1551
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0555 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 132255Z - 140100Z

ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL IS LIKELY OVER NRN OK.
HOWEVER...EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE MAY PRECLUDE A WATCH.

TCU INCREASING WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND SW OF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER SERN KS/NERN OK. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE WITH
RIDGE WEAKENING ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID LEVEL
FEATURE...AS DO AREA WIND PROFILERS WITH VEERING WINDS OVER KS/MO
AND SOME BACKING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER OK AND WRN AR.
THUS...STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY GIVEN EXCESSIVE
DOWNDRAFT CAPE IN PLACE IN EXCESS OF 1600 J/KG. WNWLY STEERING FLOW
WOULD EVENTUALLY BRING STORMS INTO NERN OK LATER THIS EVENING.

A COOL POCKET EXISTS ALOFT WITH THE UPPER FEATURE WHICH MAY HELP
WITH HAIL PRODUCTION WITH SIZES UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE DESPITE HOT
SURFACE TEMPS.

..JEWELL.. 07/13/2009

[bretthexum]

MCS season a month too late. Better late than never I guess.

[Bunty]

There's some storms poppin up near Stillwater. Indications that we're in the beginning stage of the heat dome breaking down and shifting away.

That storm with the black hail core that threatened Stillwater quickly collapsed before it could do much of anything in Stillwater. In checking, the several weather stations in Stillwater that report precipitation data to wunderground.com, only one of them registered anything, and it was only .01.

[westsidesooner]

MCS season a month too late. Better late than never I guess.

Tornado season came early, the heat came early, now the MCS season kicks off a month late......wonder what the fall and winter will be like. (cringe) On the plus side maybe we'll get some of the rain and cool temps my sister has been getting in KC for the last couple of days. High there yesterday was 81....sweeet. Downside, if the MCS's are strong enough it really sucks losing power in July. Been there done that. Talk about ying and yang. Like I mentioned earlier it'll probably rain like crazy since this is the first weekend I'll have a chance to go to the lake this summer. sigh.

[venture]

Severe Weather Outlook for tonight:

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU...
NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS MAY SUPPORT STORM CONSOLIDATION AND UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH
ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER VICINITY LATER THIS EVENING. IT IS
POSSIBLE...AS MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST...THAT THIS FORCING COULD
BECOME COUPLED WITH AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A HIGH LEVEL JET...AIDING THE EVOLUTION OF A LARGE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. IF THIS OCCURS...WARM AND UNSATURATED
LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND ENHANCED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY NEAR SURFACE
FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS THE OZARKS BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY.

Will post the new Day 1 and Day 2 in an hour when it comes out.

[venture]

Day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1245 am cdt thu jul 16 2009

valid 161200z - 171200z

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms today and tonight from parts of
the cntrl plains into the n cntrl gulf states...

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms this afternoon across parts of
the northeast...

...synopsis...
Models indicate that a transition toward a more amplified mid/upper
flow pattern will continue through this forecast period. A
subtropical high center is progged to shift from the southern
rockies into the southern great basin today...with a ridge axis
building northward through areas along and to the lee of the
canadian rockies. At the same time...a downstream closed low/upper
trough is expected to continue digging through the upper great lakes
and upper mississippi valley region...with cyclonic flow
developing/sharpening southward through much of the mid south and
central/eastern gulf states by late tonight/early friday.

...cntrl/srn plains into lwr ms and tn valleys/nrn gulf states...
Before intrusions of cooler/drier air overspread and stabilize much
of the region later this week into the weekend...instability
associated with lingering moisture beneath increasingly
northwesterly flow is expected to be conducive to the formation of
strong/severe storm clusters today. Details of the convective
evolution are still at least somewhat uncertain...particularly in
light of ongoing convection from the upper tennessee valley/southern
appalachians into the south central plains. However...mid/upper 60s
dew points linger across kansas...where mid-level lapse rates will
remain steep...and boundary layer destabilization is expected to
become maximized by early this afternoon with cape of 2000-3000+
j/kg.

Models appear reasonably similar in suggesting that an impulse
digging southeast of the northern rockies may contribute to the
initiation of storms as early as 18-21z across southwest nebraska or
northwest kansas. Although mid-level flow fields may still be
relatively modest in strength...veering with height from light and
southerly at low-levels should be sufficient for supercells...
Before activity consolidates and grows upscale into one or more
storm clusters. Low-level thermodynamic profiles with steep lapse
rates and sizable temperature dew points spreads will be favorable
for strong downbursts and expanding surface cold pools accompanied
by strong gusty winds. Convection is expected to spread
southeastward across kansas through the afternoon...before possibly
turning more to the south and accelerating across oklahoma during
the evening as mid-level flow across the central plains continues to
strengthen and veer.

[westsidesooner]

Finally the cool down is begining.

And the prospect of rain....maybe heavy rain is looking better. Will be interesting to see how everything deveolps today/this evening. On the downside my weekend lake trip is out...grrrrrr. But maybe a nice MCS will blow through tongiht and keep me entertained.

[Thunder]

KOCO is calling for Isolated Tornadoes today.

[venture]

Day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1128 am cdt thu jul 16 2009

valid 161630z - 171200z

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms this afternoon into tonight for
the ks/ok area into parts of the lower ms valley...

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms this afternoon for ne pa...nrn
nj...central/ern ny ewd into interior srn new england...

...central plains to the lower ms valley through tonight...
Gradual amplification of the large scale pattern will continue
through tomorrow as a mid level low over wrn ontario digs sewd to
the upper great lakes. Several speed maxima will rotate sewd from
the nrn plains to the ms valley...around the srn/swrn periphery of
this low...while an associated cold front moves swd across the
central plains and sewd across the mid ms valley. Other smaller
scale mcv/s are embedded within this flow regime over nrn ks/se
neb/sw ia with ongoing thunderstorm clusters. This convection will
likely persist through the day and move sewd across central/ern ks
and wrn mo...and build wwd/swwd during the afternoon into w/sw ks.

A corridor of 65-70 f boundary layer dewpoints...surface heating in
advance of the ongoing storms...and steep mid level lapse rates will
result in moderate instability /mlcape 2000-3000 j/kg/ which will
support intensification of the storms this afternoon. Deep layer
wly/nwly shear will also be sufficient to maintain organized storm
clusters capable of producing damaging winds and large hail this
afternoon into tonight as the convection progresses sewd across
ok/ar.

[venture]

KOCO is calling for Isolated Tornadoes today.

Don't read into that graphic at all. That is just standard wording with any risk of severe weather. SPC has probabilities at 2% over Northern OK and Southern KS today.

[Thunder]

Don't read into that graphic at all. That is just standard wording with any risk of severe weather. SPC has probabilities at 2% over Northern OK and Southern KS today.

I know that, Venture. Note the .

[westsidesooner]

KOCO is calling for Isolated Tornadoes today.

Do you have a one track mind?..(tornadoes)..just kidding Thunder, Im excited about today prospects as well. And I know you care about bugs too!!!
Personally Im looking forward to a good old fashioned squall line this evening. Watch the storms in Kansas, they're moving south fast and should intensify this afternoon.

On second thought maybe I shouldnt play down the tornado possibility....last time I did that one almost landed on Venture.

[Thunder]

On second thought maybe I shouldnt play down the tornado possibility....last time I did that one almost landed on Venture.

Don't forget the near-miss for Karrie.

[westsidesooner]

And so it begins.

Activity now forming along an arc on a fast moving OFB from around Medicine Lodge Kansas to just east of Ponca City to Chanute KS. Might be an MD coming out soon. I hope.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?p...d=vnx&loop=yes

[venture]

Should have a watch rolling for Northern OK here before much longer. NE is covered under an MCD right now, but would think they'll blanket the entire part of Northern OK. Current convective trends seems to be quick development into hail storms once they get going.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1579
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / SWRN MO / NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 161858Z - 162030Z

THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF WIND/HAIL
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN HAS EVOLVED TODAY OWING TO EFFECTS OF
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND ONGOING STORMS. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS..RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA ALL DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING FROM NEAR SZL SWWD TO E OF CNU AND S OF ICT.
THE NRN EXTENSION OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THEN LINKS TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH TRAILS SEWD INTO SERN MO /S OF STL/.
FARTHER S...ONGOING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD CANOPY HAVE
ESTABLISHED A POCKET OF COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER NERN OK INTO NRN
AR. AS A RESULT A NARROW AXIS OF STRONGER HEATING AND RESULTANT AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION IS PRESENT FROM NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER NEWD INTO
SWRN MO WHERE MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO 1000-1500 J/KG.

LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH INFLUENCE OF
MCV OVER NWRN MO ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORMS
FROM NEAR OR JUST N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY-STATIONARY FRONT
INTERSECTION N OF SZL SWWD INTO FAR SERN KS /E OF CNU/. THIS
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG THE WRN/NWRN EDGE OF NARROW WARM SECTOR
/DELINEATED ABOVE/ WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OVER
PRIMARILY SWRN MO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

LOCAL PROFILERS/VWPS INDICATE MODESTLY STRONG /35-40 KT/ DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
FOR A POSSIBLY WW ISSUANCE IS THE RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY WHICH WOULD SUSTAIN MORE INTENSE STORMS.

[westsidesooner]

Venture.....Do you think there will be a widespread wind damage threat today or just isolated pockets from downbursts?

[venture]

And now SE OK.

ACUS11 KWNS 161920
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161919
ARZ000-OKZ000-162015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1580
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK / SWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 161919Z - 162015Z

INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD DMGG MICROBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SWRN AR. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN MAY ARISE IF TSTMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED OVER PARTS OF SERN OK. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC HAS SHOWN TSTMS DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF AR GENERALLY ALONG AND NEAR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHEREAS FURTHER W...MID-LEVEL CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY DEEPENED RESULTING IN TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN OK DURING THE PAST HOUR. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WHETHER CONVECTION OVER ERN OK WILL BECOME SURFACE BASED AHEAD OF SEEMINGLY WEAK MID-LEVEL ASCENT MOVING EWD ACROSS OK. A HOT/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION AS A SURFACE THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NRN TX NEWD INTO SWRN AR. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG--SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL.

20-30 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW EVIDENT ON AREA VWP DATA WILL LIKELY SERVE TO ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL. ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE POSSIBLY LEADS TO A CONSOLIDATION OF ONE OR MORE W-E MOVING CLUSTERS.

[venture]

Venture.....Do you think there will be a widespread wind damage threat today or just isolated pockets from downbursts?

Nothing wide spread. We aren't quite there yet...going into the weekend and next week when we are more in the MCS pattern, then we'll have that.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1581
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SWRN KS INTO THE OK AND NRN TX PNHDLS AND
NWRN/N-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 161937Z - 162100Z

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ARCING NWWD FROM N-CNTRL OK /NEAR PNC/ TO JUST W OF DDC AND
GCK. ANOTHER BOUNDARY INTERSECTED THE FORMER JUST W OF GCK BEFORE
ARCING SWWD THROUGH FAR SERN CO /S OF SPD AND TAD/. AIR MASS AHEAD
OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS EXPERIENCING NEAR FULL SOLAR INSOLATION WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. THE RICHEST BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE RESIDES ACROSS N-CNTRL INTO NWRN OK WHERE DEWPOINTS
REMAIN INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG.
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DECREASES SLIGHTLY WITH WWD EXTENT THROUGH
THE OK/TX PNHDLS OWING TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AS WARM
SECTOR AIR MASS FURTHER DESTABILIZES AND REMAINING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ERODES. AREA PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE GENERALLY WEAK
WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 5-6 KM AGL WHICH SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR WELL-ORGANIZED STORM FORMATION.
NONETHELESS...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE FORMATION OF STORM
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN DCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG.

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
423 pm cdt thu jul 16 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Western oklahoma county in central oklahoma...

* until 515 pm cdt

* at 423 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm over extreme northern oklahoma city...4 miles
west of downtown edmond...moving southeast at 10 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include central oklahoma city...del
city...forest park...lake aluma...midwest city...nichols hills...
Nicoma park...spencer...the village...tinker air force base...warr
acres and western edmond.

[venture]

Get ready for some hail.



Strong winds around the area of the shelf cloud as well.