Severe Weather Outlook - Tue 6/30 to Mon 7/6

[venture]

Outflow boundary continues moving south. Some storms firing along and north of it right now from Holdenville to east of Slaughterville. I would expect this to continue developing westward as two boundaries are intersecting. Activity here is moving ENE. Other area of rain is moving through the North and NW sides of the Metro. Nothing major here just some water.

SPC Update...

..SRN PLAINS...
WEAK COLD FRONT ARCS FROM ERN KS TO THE NRN TX PNHDL AND THEN NWWD
INTO NM/CO. A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS
BECOME ESTABLISHED SOUTH OF THE FRONT...FROM NWRN AR ACROSS CNTRL OK
TO THE ERN TX PNHDL. SIMILAR TO POINTS EAST...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THIS REGION ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP AND MID LEVEL FLOW AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS WEAKER. NONETHELESS...AS SWATH OF WEAK
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION DECAYS ACROSS NRN OK AND THE OZARKS THIS
MORNING...NEW AND INCREASINGLY STRONG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM NWRN AR WWD ACROSS OK TO
NWRN TX. INTENSE SURFACE HEATING ALONG THIS ZONE WILL RESULT IN
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND SUFFICIENTLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER FOR
DAMAGING TSTM DOWNDRAFTS. RESULTING STORM OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS IN
THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT ANTECEDENT INSTABILITY/MOISTURE WILL
SUSTAIN SEVERE WIND/MARGINAL HAIL THREATS SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
THE SLGT RISK AREA.

[venture]

Watch for counties I-40 and South...includes the southern areas of the Metro.

Wwus30 kwns 041743
saw6
spc aww 041743
ww 546 severe tstm ok 041745z - 050100z
axis..40 statute miles north and south of line..
55ene adm/ardmore ok/ - 45wnw lts/altus ok/ ..aviation coords.. 35nm n/s /23sw mlc - 34nne cds/ hail surface and aloft..1.5 inches. Wind gusts..60 knots.
Max tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28015.

Lat...lon 34009612 34310000 35470000 35169612

this is an approximation to the watch area. For a complete depiction of the watch see wous64 kwns for wou6.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 546
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF ARDMORE OKLAHOMA TO 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF ALTUS
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 545...

DISCUSSION...VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS /95-100F SFC TEMPS AND
DCAPE TO 1500 J PER KG/ HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
WELL-DEFINED MCS OUTFLOW SITUATED ACROSS SCNTRL OK ATTM. A FEW MORE
HOURS OF HEATING ACROSS THE REGION WILL ESSENTIALLY REMOVE REMAINING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY. DESPITE REACTIVELY WEAK
MID-LEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A DEEP AND NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC SUB-CLOUD LAYER THAT
SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG TSTM DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
DAMAGE. RANDOM STORM/OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS MAY FURTHER ENHANCE TSTM
ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTENCE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28015.

[Karried]

I just can't believe this... a hundred degrees for weeks on end and the one day that everyone has outdoor plans, it storms. ugh.

Yeah, yeah, we need the rain.. but why not yesterday or tomorrow? No.. has to be on the Fourth of July and ruin all of our outdoor picnic plans. oh well, could be worse.. I'm just pissy about it all .....

[venture]

Main storm motion is changing and most cells are now moving east to ESE. Scattered shower development has taken place back through western Oklahoma. Strongest activity/storms is along a line from Dibble to Purcell to Holdenville to McAlester.

[Thunder]

I hope all those professional fireworks are covered during all this rain. They can still pop them in between the storms. Some would have to wait until rain passed and others would have to pop them as soon it gets dark enough, depending on the weather. It's a gamble.

That carnival in Moore is bad karma. Events like that attract storms. Look at the annual state fair.

[venture]

Most intense and severe weather is out in the TX Panhandle right now. Some storms continue around Lindsay to near Wayne. Some others near Hobart, Willow, and Sayre. Everything else is pretty light. Most of the metro looks dry for right now and will need to wait on redevelopment along the cold front later this afternoon.

This looks like the last shot at rain for the area for the next 10 days, unless we luck out with a MCS from the north dropping down in the next couple days. Some indication of a tropical system forming in the East Pac south of Mexico...but that is out of position to swing moisture up our way. Yeah it sucks it is a holiday, but we really need the moisture...ground is drying out fast.

[westsidesooner]

yeah, all our plants are stressed. The fescues turning yellow and the oaks and redbuds are dropping their leaves. We reaaaaaly need the rain.

[Thunder]

yeah, all our plants are stressed. The fescues turning yellow and the oaks and redbuds are dropping their leaves. We reaaaaaly need the rain.

Most of mine are ruined.

[venture]

Storm development is improving a bit, now just south of Hinton to Weatherford and west. Storms appear to be shifting ENE again now, so the metro may be able to get into some good amounts of rain here in the next few hours. Yeah it sucks for fireworks, but should allow for most of the picnic activity to finish up. Another smaller storm is also up around Edmond, but just raid and some lightning.

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
458 pm cdt sat jul 4 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Southwestern canadian county in central oklahoma...
Northwestern grady county in central oklahoma...
Northern caddo county in southwest oklahoma...

* until 600 pm cdt

* at 458 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm near lookeba...moving east at 20 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...
Wind gusts to 65 mph...

* locations in the warning include binger...cedar lake...cogar...el
reno...hinton...lookeba...minco and union city.

This includes interstate 40 between mile markers 115 and 126.

[westsidesooner]

Another smaller storm is also up around Edmond, but just raid and some lightning.

That should take care of the bugs. Sorry I couldn't resist. And yeah it sucks about the fireworks if the rain does come into the metro.

[Thunder]

Everyone is mad that the rain is ruining everything. Well, I'm mad for having to go to work, but since I have to work, I am very excited to have the rain roll on thru.

[venture]

Watch county notification for watches 546/548
national weather service norman ok
450 pm cdt sat jul 4 2009

okc017-081-109-050100-
/o.exa.koun.sv.a.0546.000000t0000z-090705t0100z/

the national weather service has extended severe thunderstorm
watch 546 to include the following areas until 8 pm cdt this
evening

in oklahoma this watch includes 3 counties

in central oklahoma

canadian lincoln oklahoma

this includes the cities of...chandler...el reno...mustang...
Oklahoma city and yukon.

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
537 pm cdt sat jul 4 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Southeastern canadian county in central oklahoma...
Northwestern cleveland county in central oklahoma...
Northeastern grady county in central oklahoma...
Extreme northwestern mcclain county in central oklahoma...
Southwestern oklahoma county in central oklahoma...

* until 615 pm cdt

* at 537 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm 7 miles west of mustang...moving east at 15
mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include bethany...del city...forest
park...lake aluma...moore...mustang...nichols hills...northwestern
norman...valley brook...warr acres...western oklahoma city and
yukon.

This includes interstate 35 between mile markers 115 and 134.

This includes interstate 40 between mile markers 132 and 157.

This includes interstate 44 between mile markers 108 and 130.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes with no advance warning.
Move immediately to a storm shelter... Basement or sturdy building if
a tornado is sighted.

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
604 pm cdt sat jul 4 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Southeastern canadian county in central oklahoma...
Northwestern cleveland county in central oklahoma...
Northeastern grady county in central oklahoma...
Northwestern mcclain county in central oklahoma...
Southwestern oklahoma county in central oklahoma...

* until 645 pm cdt

* at 604 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm near bridge creek...moving northeast at 20 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of half dollars...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include bethany...bridge creek...moore...
Mustang...newcastle...northwestern norman...southwestern oklahoma
city...stanley draper lake...tuttle...valley brook and warr acres.

This includes interstate 35 between mile markers 113 and 126.

This includes interstate 40 between mile markers 141 and 150.

This includes interstate 44 between mile markers 98 and 123.

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
612 pm cdt sat jul 4 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Northeastern canadian county in central oklahoma...
Western oklahoma county in central oklahoma...

* until 700 pm cdt

* at 612 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm near el reno...moving northeast at 20 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include el reno...northwestern oklahoma
city...piedmont...richland and the village.

This includes interstate 40 between mile markers 122 and 134.

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
759 pm cdt sat jul 4 2009

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Southern lincoln county in central oklahoma...
Northern pottawatomie county in central oklahoma...
Northern seminole county in east central oklahoma...

* until 900 pm cdt

* at 759 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated
severe thunderstorms along a line extending from 4 miles north of
meeker to tecumseh...moving east at 20 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 65 mph...
Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning...

* locations in the warning include aydelotte...bethel acres...
Centerview...dale...earlsboro...johnson...little.. .meeker...
Prague...seminole...shawnee...sparks and tecumseh.

This includes interstate 40 between mile markers 179 and 210.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes with no advance warning.
Move immediately to a storm shelter... Basement or sturdy building if
a tornado is sighted.

[venture]

Showers/Storms are now developing along the approaching cold front in Northern Oklahoma. Once this comes through that should choke off the rest of the rain for tonight.

[venture]

Long hot week ahead. Some chance of a stray storm tonight into tomorrow morning if any make it off the front range. Other than that, nothing through Sunday. Upper high does start to move into the Rockies early next week setting up NW flow. Looks like first shot at MCS activity starts around Tuesday of next week...but it is still very low. We'll have to wait until then to see how things work out. MCS's get really tricky predicting more than a day out due to left over boundaries, instability, winds, etc...all playing a major factor in where they track and if they are even able to get going.

[westsidesooner]

Long hot week ahead.

Well arent you just full of good news today!!! Looks like the dog days are here. Tropics are anemic this summer as well. Stupid el nino.

Ooowwwwww <--my howling dog imitation

[westsidesooner]

Looks like first shot at MCS activity starts around Tuesday of next week...but it is still very low. We'll have to wait until then to see how things work out. MCS's get really tricky predicting more than a day out due to left over boundaries, instability, winds, etc...all playing a major factor in where they track and if they are even able to get going.

Venture, I was wondering if any particular MCS/derechos stuck out in your mind. I'm not sure if it was a derecho, but I remember one in July of 95 that took out power to more than 175,000 people in the okc metro. We lost power for 5 days (man it was hot) and lost one huge oak tree. It was awseome and scary standing on the back porch that night watching 50 and 60 foot oaks bend alomost to the ground in the 100 mph gusts. It did a lot of damage to the fairgrounds if I remember.

[venture]

June 2005 is probably the one that comes to mind right away. It just looked amazing and impacted a lot of people. Case study on it: http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/114900.pdf

Looked at the models this morning. Some chance...less than 10% of a shower or what not the next day, but then it is dry for awhile. Models backed off pattern change next week and now have the high parked right over us. Oh joy.

[westsidesooner]

Models backed off pattern change next week and now have the high parked right over us. Oh joy.

Well arent you just full of good news today!!!

ditto what he said. lol

[SoonerDave]

Venture, I was wondering if any particular MCS/derechos stuck out in your mind. I'm not sure if it was a derecho, but I remember one in July of 95 that took out power to more than 175,000 people in the okc metro. We lost power for 5 days (man it was hot) and lost one huge oak tree. It was awseome and scary standing on the back porch that night watching 50 and 60 foot oaks bend alomost to the ground in the 100 mph gusts. It did a lot of damage to the fairgrounds if I remember.

I remember that storm quite vividly. My wife and I had been married barely seven months, and it did the most widespread damage of any non-tornadic storm I remember in my 40+ years of living in Oklahoma. We were out of power for several days, and lost a fridge full of food. The house was absolutely sweltering.

There was a time several years ago, possibly that 2005 timeframe, where over a period of several days there was a series of derechos that were moving into the state that started in western Kansas, hooked south, and plowed through OK and into northern Texas. Our familiy vacation was right smack in the midst of these storms. We were taking the kids and my mom to San Antonio, and planned to leave around daybreak, but I had alerted my mom to the fact that if these storms rolled through, be prepared to leave early - which is precisely what we did. I got up the next morning, caught the radar, and sure enough - a derecho from western Kansas was heading our way, and I got everyone up to leave early.

The storm literally chased us out of OKC as we were leaving, and we drove out from beneath the wind gusts, thunder, and lightning by the time we hit Norman. The remnants of that storm survived into N. Texas later that same day before dissipating...(the rest of the vacation was great, tho).

[Bunty]

The derecho that bypassed OKC but hit Stillwater with hail on June 12th was sure a doozie.